Issue #616 ![]() Jun 09, 2019 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Trade Talks Stalled. Indexes Remain Under Pressure!
DOW Friday closing price - 25983
All indexes generated a very strong positive reversal, having made either a new 3-month low (SPX) or a new 5-month low (DOW and NASDAQ) and then closing above the previous week's high and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 26074, SPX at 2884 and NAZ at 7767) will be seen this week. The positive reversals though, were not stimulated by any tangible positive fundamental news and as such remain suspect as to their validity. The original reason for the correction was the failure of the trade agreement with China and there has been no changes in that respect. The reason this past week for the positive reversal was manufactured given that Trump announced "new" Tariffs on Mexico on May 30th and which caused an additional 2% drop in the prices of the indexes but then the possible annulment of those tariffs as well as potentially lowering of interest rates by the Fed caused a 5% rally to occur. None of which was a tangible positive on Friday. It was announced on Friday after the close of the market that the new Tariffs on Mexico will not be imposed (due to an agreement) but whether the announcement will bring much further appreciation in price is unclear given that the difference in the amount of loss versus the amount of gain seen because of that 8-day event can be mostly attributed to short-covering and not a change of fundamentals.
From a purely chart perspective, the rally that occurred last week was not totally unexpected given that the SPX and NASDAQ had both made new all-time highs 6 weeks prior and those highs had not been successfully tested and with the fact that a 10% correction occurred, the indexes stepped into oversold territory and the manipulated events (Mexico tariff relief) gave the bulls ammunition to generate some fast profits and the bears to take profits on the correction as well, suggests that the traders will now be looking back on the original problem which was the Chinese trade war that has no relief in sight.
It also needs to be mentioned that the economic reports this past week were negative in nature. The ISM Index came in at the lowest level in 32 months and the Jobs report showed no growth, which has not been seen since 2011 (8 years). Both of these reports on any other year would have generated additional downside and yet because of the short-covering being seen as well as the manipulated news, the traders opted to buy rather than sell.
What now? is the question. From a purely chart perspective, the DOW is reaching a level of decent intraweek resistance at 26277 but based on the weekly close, there is decent resistance at the 26,000 demilitarized zone which is where the index closed on Friday. This does suggest some further intraweek upside this coming week will be seen but a likely red weekly close next Friday. The SPX shows some minor to perhaps decent intraweek resistance on the daily chart at 2892 but none on the weekly chart until 2916. By the same token, the index shows decent weekly close resistance at 2872 and given the index closed on Friday at 2873, it does strongly suggest that a red weekly close will be seen next Friday. The NASDAQ continues to be the weak sister and as long as that remains, the bulls are unlikely to go much farther. There is minor to decent intraweek resistance on the daily chart between 7806 and 7850 but on the weekly chart there is minor to decent resistance at 7746 and given that the index closed at 7742 on Friday, it too suggests that a red weekly close will be seen next Friday. All of the charts suggests that on a weekly closing basis this bounce has met a level where further upside is dependent on new positive news and the Mexico Tariffs being taken off does not qualify as that kind of news.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows decent resistance at 26277 and the nothing until 26616, The SPX shows minor to decent resistance at 2893 and then decent at 2916. The NASDAQ shows minor to decent resistance at 7806 and then decent to perhaps strong at 7933.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 25372 that is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at 25427. Below that level, there is decent support now at 25208 that if broken would open the door for a lot more. The SPX shows minor to decent support at 2800 and then on a daily closing basis at 2774, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. The NASDAQ shows minor to decent support between 7600 and 7627 and then nothing until 7400.
The bulls have a big problem inasmuch as any stoppage of momentum would drive the indexes down to the nearest support levels and none are close by. Any drop down to support would be enough to stop the momentum and that means that every day this coming week the bulls have to drive the indexes up and that is now unlikely to happen after a 5% move up without tangible positive fundamental news. The news that the sanctions against Mexico will not be implemented will likely cause the indexes to rally on Monday but on Tuesday PPI comes out, on Wednesday CPI comes out and on Friday Retail Sales come out and all 3 reports are not likely to be beneficial to the bulls, meaning that there is a better chance of momentum being stopped than not. If the rally fails to break the resistance levels mentioned above, the bears will likely step up and without any further ammunition for the bulls to continue higher, things will likely change from green to red for the bulls.
The bulls are likely to pin their hopes on the next FOMC rate decision scheduled for Wednesday the 19th and the likely meeting between Xi and Trump, scheduled to happen at the G20 meeting that occurs on June 28-29. As such, the probabilities do not favor any strong move down this week. As such, trading this week will likely all be chart oriented with the focus being on the close next Friday. Thereafter, the traders will likely do some idling until the FOMC rate decision comes out the following Wednesday, which is not likely to favor either side though not having a rate cut will likely have a negative effect. The meeting between Xi and Trump on June 28-29 is not likely to generate any positive news given that Trump will not be offering Xi what the Chinese require, which is dignity.
As such, this coming week is not likely to be all that indicative though limited follow through to the upside is likely to be seen at the beginning of the week and then some red toward the latter part of the week. Probabilities do favor a red close next Friday and the bears remaining in mid-term control.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions for this week, mainly because the portfolio is full and there is no room for new mentions. Nonetheless, I will be considering adding positions this week in CLB. It does seem that oil has found a bottom to the correction and as it is, the stock has been acting well as no new lows were made last week in spite of oil going lower. See comment below on possible entry point and stop loss point as well as objective.
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Updates
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Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2019, as of 5/31 Profit of $12,150 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for May per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
IBM (short) $37 LVS (short) $5 GS (long) $48 BABA (long) $269) Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. NONE Total Profit for April, per 100 shares and after commissions $359 Closed out losing trades for May per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
GS (short) $37
FSLR (long) $113 Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.
TEVA (long) $463 Total Loss for April, per 100 shares, including commissions $1427 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 5/31
COF (short) $405
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
ARNA (long) $726
ARNA (long) $290 ENG (long) $48 Total $7054 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 5/31
CRON (long) $40
CVS (long) $323 LNTH (long) $35 CPG (Long) $18 CLB (long) $122 Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
FSLR (long) $1396 Total $2415 Status of trades for month of May per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Profit of $3571
Status of account/portfolio for 2019, as of 4/30Profit of $15,721 using 100 shares traded per mention.
AAPL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 13-week low and then closing above the previous week's. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 191.92 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock stopped short of a semi important high on the daily chart at 192.47 which represents the last high of consequence after the negative earnings report came out and that was made trying to close the runaway gap at 192.77, meaning that it is a short-term pivotal resistance level. The stock did fall back to close at the 200-day MA, currently at 190.50, suggesting that even though further upside is expected to be seen on Monday, the bulls will find it difficult to close the gap and also generate a green daily close. If the gap is closed and the bulls are able to close above the MA line on Monday and confirm all of that on Tuesday, it would suggest further upside up to the $197.60 level where the next resistance area of consequence is found. The stock did generate a breakaway and runaway gap to the upside last week, with the breakaway gap between 179.83 and 181.14 and the runaway gap being between 185.47 and 185.77. Evidently, closure of either the runaway gap to the downside at 192.77 or the runaway gap to the upside at 185.47 would clear up short-term direction for the stock. Chart-wise, the probabilities favor the bulls but fundamentally it favors the bears.
ARNA made a new 52-month intraweek high and a new 59-month weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 59.13 will be seen this week. There is minor to perhaps decent resistance at 59.31 from September 2009 and a bit stronger and more recent (Jan2015) at 62.80. Nonetheless, both of those resistance levels from those years were broken on Friday based on the weekly closes. On a weekly closing basis, there is no resistance of consequence until 65.10 is reached. This does suggest that the bulls are in control and that the intraweek resistance levels will not pose as much resistance as the weekly close resistance levels, suggesting the $65 level is the next objective before any correction of consequence is seen. Based on the recent action and the new breakout, the 52.30 intraweek low has become decent and pivotal resistance, meaning the stop loss can now be raised to 52.20. Probabilities favor the bulls. CCJ confirmed the previous week's positive reversal, having generated a higher high than the previous week as well as a green weekly close. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to close the stock in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that a drop below last week's low at 10.03 will be seen this week. By the same token, the stock now shows a successful retest of the recent 9-month low at 9.91 with Thursday's low at 10.03 and a rally above Thursday's high and a green close on Friday, meaning that it is not a high probability that the bears will be able to take the stock below last week's low this week. On the other hand, a drop below 10.03 but not below 9.91 could be seen and if that occurs and upside is seen the following week, it will be suggestive that a bottom has been found on both charts. Evidently, last week's high at 10.63 has become pivotal as a break above that level will not only confirm the successful retest of the low on the daily chart but give the bulls new chart ammunition. It has now been 4 weeks since the bears took the stock down to the $10 level but the demilitarized zone has stood firm, suggesting that without a negative fundamental news that the bulls are ready to take back some control. Probabilities favor the bulls. CLB generated an inside week but a green weekly close, meaning that the 6-week down move has stalled. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 47.67 will be seen this week. Oil got down to the important $50 level of support and then rallied enough to close above the important and pivotal weekly close support at 53.99, suggesting that no further downside will be seen. This does suggest that the stock may have also found a bottom with the previous week's low at 46.32, meaning that if the stock does go below last week's low it will likely be the required/needed retest of the low before a recovery rally is seen. As such, adding positions should be considered this week on any move below 47.67, using a stop loss at 46.22. Pivotal resistance is now found at last week's high at 51.32 that if broken would generate a minimum rally back up to minor resistance at the $57 level. Nonetheless, the weekly closing chart suggests that if a bottom has been found the the $59 level would be the minimum rally seen. Probabilities favor the bulls. COF recovered all that was lost the previous week but overall the bulls did not accomplish anything of consequence. Using the weekly closing chart, the stock strongly suggests it is trading in an 85.75 to 90.78 trading range that is unlikely to be broken without new fundamental news or a breakout or breakdown in the index market. The stock did close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 90.95 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, unless the bulls can get above the intraweek resistance at 92.27, the probabilities will favor a move back down toward the $86 level. The stock did gap up on Tuesday between 87.42 and 87.99 and that gap will be a magnet. By the same token, if the stock gaps up again and/or gets above 92.27, the bulls will take control and further upside and perhaps of consequence would then be seen. Stop loss should now be at 92.37. Probabilities slightly favor the bears. CPG generated another red weekly close, the 4th in a row and the 7th out of the last 8 weeks. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 3.00 than above last week's high at 3.41. Then again, oil did show signs that a bottom to the correction has been found and that a recovery is to begin and that would be a strong plus for the stock. Any rally above last week's high would suggest the correction is over. Resistance is found between 3.45 and 3.59 that if broken would be a signal that the stock is ready to at least generate sideways action to perhaps resumption of the uptrend. Support continues to be found at the 3.00 level. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. CVS merger with Aetna was approved by the Justice department and 5 key states and it did give the stock a boost last week, having made a new 4-week high. Nonetheless, there is still a cloud hanging over the merger as a Federal judge continued to question the merger. Nonetheless, the probabilities do favor the merger going through and that offered enough ammunition to support the recent low at 51.77 as a likely bottom to this downtrend. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 52.46 and above last week's high at 55.75. Nonetheless, several rating companies issued a buy rating on the stock, meaning that dips are now likely to find buying interest. Short term pivotal resistance is found at last week's high at 55.75 and mid-term pivotal resistance is found at 57.75. Support is found at 52.04 and at 51.77. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG continued to show support that helped generate the 3rd green weekly close in a row and above a level that has proven to be resistance at .80. Nonetheless, the bulls still need to generate a weekly close above .88 to bring increased buying interest and that is still not something that the bulls have been able to accomplish. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at .85 is expected to be seen this week. The 200-day MA is currently at .82 and for the past 8 trading day, the stock has been closing at the line or slightly below. As such, a confirmed daily close above .84 would likely bring about increased buying interest. Pivotal daily close support is now found at .68. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. FSLR made a new 52-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 63.27 will be seen this week. The new highs do open the door for resumption of the uptrend given that the weekly close resistance area between 61.22 and 61.76 was pivotal and if confirmed next Friday with another close above that area will not only open the door for a rally up to the next resistance level at $70 but also mean that the 1-year downtrend is totally over. Stop losses can now be raised to 56.44 but any weekly close from now on below 61.22 would be considered a negative failure. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls. IBM, like with many stocks attached to the action in the index market, generated a rally and a green weekly close on Friday. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 134.72 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the stock did not accomplish nearly as much as other index related stocks given that the stock is still almost $6+ dollars away from a pivotal resistance level and still $1.78 cents away from a short-term pivotal resistance, meaning that the bears seem to still be in control. Short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 137.06 and the 200-day MA is currently at 133.95, none of which was at risk of being broken last week. The stock gapped up last Tuesday between 128.56 and 129.09 and that gap will be a magnet unless the bulls can accomplish breaking the resistance levels above. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week. LNTH generated a positive reversal week that keeps the bulls in control. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 25.71 is expected to be seen this week. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at the all-time high at 26.40 that if broken would mean resumption of the uptrend after 10-weel sideways trading range would occur. Short-term pivotal support is found at last week's low at 23.23. Probabilities favor the bulls.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .82. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.67 (new price (57.60). 3) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.017. (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 58.30. Stock closed on Friday at 62.53. 4) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.27. 5) LNTH - Averaged long at 24.34 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 23.18. Stock closed on Friday at 25.32. 6) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0647. 7) AAPL - Averaged short at 190.71 (2 mentions). stop loss at 193.47. Stock closed on Friday at 190.15. 8) IBM - Averaged short at 136.08 (2 mentions) Stop loss at 137.35. Stock closed on Friday at 133.31. 9) CVS - Purchased at 55.60. No stop at present. Stock closed on Friday at 53.92. 10) CPG - Purchased at 3.24 and at 3.06. Averaged long at 3.28. Stop loss at 2.92. Stock closed on Friday at 3.18. 11) ARNA - Averaged long at 46.62 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 52.20. Stock closed on Friday at 56.70. 12) COF - Shorted at 89.92. Stop loss at 92.37. Stock closed on Friday at 90.26. 13) CLB - Purchased at 48.90. Stop loss is at 46.22. Stock closed on Friday at 48.96. 14) CRON - Purchased at 14.48 and at 13.65. Averaged long at 14.065 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 13.41. Stock closed on Friday at 15.94. 15) AAPL - Shorted at 191.74. Covered shorts at 190.15. Profit on the trade of $159 per 100 shares minus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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