Issue #615
May 26, 2019
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Trade Talks Stalled. Indexes Remain Under Pressure!

DOW Friday closing price - 25585
SPX Friday closing price - 2826
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 7637

The indexes continued the recent downtrend, having all generated another red weekly close on Friday (3rd in a row). The NASDAQ let the way with a 3.6% fall while other indexes fell 2% or less. The fact the NAZ led the way down suggests more is to follow. The indexes once again closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, meaning further downside below last week's lows is expected to be seen this week (DOW below 25328, SPX below 2805 and the NASDAQ below 7585).

This week there are 2 economic reports to look at with the Consumer Confidence number coming out on tomorrow (anticipated to be still a high of 130) and the second estimate of GDP on Thursday (anticipated to be 3.1%). It is unlikely either of these reports will be better than expected even though these numbers should not come out much lower than anticipated given that they reflect the number from a month ago before the failure of the trade war agreement came out.

The level to watch this week in the NASDAQ is 7530 but that is important only on a daily closing basis as it represents the 200-day MA. If the bears are able to close the index below that level 2 days in a row, the bears will gain new ammunition. The next level below and even more important is 7337. A break of that level will be a strong chart negative that is likely to generate even more selling interest. The same MA line in the SPX is found at 2775 and the same thing applies to that indexes. Nonetheless, below that level, the index has pivotal support at 2722 that will bring in new selling interest.

To the upside, the NASDAQ now shows a breakaway and runaway gap with the runaway gap being between 7738 and 7694. If that gap is closed it will give the bulls some ammunition for a bit more upside with the breakaway gap between 7810 and 7804 likely to be closed as well. A break of the pivotal resistance at 7946 would be a sign the worst is over. Nonetheless, none of this is likely to happen unless some progress with the trade war agreement with China occurs.

The indexes are likely to head lower this week with a potential downside target for the NASDAQ of 7419. That is a level where there is some short-term pivotal support that is not likely to be broken at this time. By the same token, that level is likely to be a magnet for the traders if the index gets below the 200-day MA, which is highly likely to be seen this week. This suggests that the index is likely to be down at least 100 points to a possible 200 points lower. Though there is a 50-50 chance the traders will attempt to get up to the runaway gap and test it at some point, it is unlikely to be closed, meaning that the most the index might be up this week from Friday's close is 60 points.

The bears have the edge this week and are not likely to lose it.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no new mentions this week but the ones from last week remain viable.

COF Friday Closing Price - 90.78

COF is a financial institution that for the past 2 years and based on weekly closes has traded mostly between $78 and $94 dollars though it did have one rally up to $105 and one drop down to $72. Simply stated it is dependable but also has shown adherence to chart support and resistance levels.

Like the index market, COF generated the drop down to the $72 level in December and then got into a rally that seems to have been culminated 4 weeks ago with a intraweek high at 94.38 (weekly close at 94.26), followed by a mini 7.5% correction down to 87.24 during the weakness seen in the index market. The stock generated a positive reversal week last week, having made that 87.24 low and then rallying to close green for the week and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 91.56 will be seen this week, which in turns opens the door for short that has a clearly defined and decent resistance area as well as a clear downside target based on the 2-year history of trading in a trading range.

COF does not report earnings for another 2 months, suggesting the traders will trade the stock via the charts and what the indexes do rather than on its own.

COF has traded mostly above the 200-week MA, currently at 83.13, for most of the 2 years it has been on this trading range but did break the line in December when the correction in the index market occurred and traded below the line for 15 weeks before finally getting above it again. Since the line got broken to the upside on this occasion, there has not yet been a retest of that line, suggesting that if the index market is going to have more selling than buying pressure for the short term, that the line is not only a viable downside objective but one with a high probability of being seen.

Like the indexes, COF got up to a minor intraweek resistance at 91.60 with the 91.56 high that was seen this past week. Like with the indexes, the probabilities of that resistance getting broken are better than not. If broken it would suggest an additional rally up to the next resistance area at 93.40. Either way, the 94.26 weekly close resistance that is further strengthened by a high weekly close at 93.94 seen in February 2017 does make that area dependable resistance and unlikely to be broken at this time.

To the downside, COF does show weekly close support at the 200-week MA but on an intraweek basis no support is found until the $80 level is reached.

It is important to note that the bounce seen in COF this past week was because the stock got down to the 200-day MA, currently at 87.79 with a low at 87.24 and that is why this opportunity to short the stock is available.

The big question this week, but one that should be answered no later than Wednesday, is whether the minor resistance at 91.60 is broken or not, meaning the risk/reward ratio is the only thing at risk of changing.

Sales of COF around the 93.40 level and using at 94.48 stop loss and having a minimum downside objective of 83.13 will offer almost a 10-1 risk/reward ratio. A sale of the stock above 91.00 and using the same stop loss and objective, will lower the risk/reward ratio to 2.3-1. Nonetheless, the probability rating on this trade is high.

My rating on the trade is a 4.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

EPD Friday Closing Price - 28.34

EPD provides midstream energy services to producers and consumers of natural gas, natural gas liquids, crude oil, petrochemicals and refined product. Natural gas has been in high demand with short supply for the winter months and also because supplies had fallen anywhere from 16% to as much as 29% from year ago levels. Nonetheless, it is now anticipated that because of the higher prices, there is going to be an increase in production at a time where demand goes down during the hot summer months. Click on this link for further details: Fundamental outlook for Natural Gas

In looking at the chart of EPD, the one thing that jumps out immediately is how consistent in price this stock has been since March 2016, having traded all this time between $24 and $29.50 (based on weekly closes), having seen the high level 7 occasions and the low level on 5 occasions during this period of time. The stock got up 8 weeks ago to an intraweek high of 29.84 and then proceeded to drop down to 28.04 over the subsequent weeks. The stock closed on the highs of the week last week, suggesting this week the stock will go above last week's high at 29.05 this week, opening the door for a short position to be instituted with a small risk factor.

It should be mentioned that EPD has not shown any big moves down on this occasion as of yet but this same type of action was seen last year between July and October for a period of 12 weeks that ultimately ended up with a drop down to 23.33 in a period of 11 weeks thereafter. It does suggest that based on the fundamental outlook shown in the link that something very similar is likely to happen again, especially considering the dependability of the chart for the past 3 years.

Sales of EPD around the 29.30 level and using a stop loss at 30.35 and having an objective of 23.30 will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 4.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

I am also considering adding positions on ARNA below 52.00.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA had an uneventful week but did close red and slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range. It is likely that the breakout daily and weekly close level at 50.93 will be seen but the bulls should remain in overall control.

AAPL chart looks pretty negative and the $170 level seems like a likely target for this week or for the next 2 weeks. It too, has a breakaway and runaway gap formation and the runaway gap is at 182.55, suggesting that level will not be seen this week.

CCJ remains in an uneventful pattern that is not likely to be broken. The likely trading range for the stock is 10.45 and 9.70. If either of those levels get broken, then more will be seen in that direction. It is doubtful that the area will be broken in either direction.

CPG was able to close on Friday at the important weekly close support at 3.50 (closed at 3.49) but oil did break below a somewhat important intraweek support at 58.07, having gone down to 57.37 last week. The next downside objective is 55.25 and that is now likely to be seen. Nonetheless, the further downside of oil does not necessarily have to affect the stock itself as the fundamentals of the company have gotten better. The stock may go slightly lower on an intraweek basis but unless the 3.02 level does not get broken, the chances favor the stock closing green next Friday, which in turn would bring in new buying interest.

CVS generated a green weekly close, meaning that the index market right now is not acting as a catalyst to the price. The judge's decision on the merger is due out the following week and that could mean the traders this week will not do much of anything. You already have the information on this stock from last week's newsletter and there is nothing different to report.

ENG had a good week and the probabilities now favor the bulls. Check last week's newsletter for more details.

FSLR generated another red weekly close and either the daily close breakout at 55.65 or the weekly one at 54.53 are likely to be tested this week or next. The long term outlook remains bullish.

IBM generated another red weekly close but also generated a negative reversal week, having gone above last week's high and then below last week's low. Further downside is likely to be seen with the $125 area the objective.

LNTH generated a positive reversal week that keeps the bulls in control It is doubtful that the uptrend will resume this week or even next but there are good reasons to believe the stock will remain in the $24-$26 trading range for the next couple of weeks.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .79.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.34 (new price (53.41).

3) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.017. (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 58.30. Stock closed on Friday at 57.31.

4) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.03.

5) LNTH - Averaged long at 24.34 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 23.18. Stock closed on Friday at 24.73.

6) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .069.

7) AAPL - Averaged short at 190.71 (2 mentions). stop loss at 193.47. Stock closed on Friday at 178.97.

8) IBM - Shorted at 136.81. Averaged short at 136.08 (2 mentions) Stop loss at 137.35. Stock closed on Friday at 132.28.

9) CVS - Purchased at 55.60. No stop at present. Stock closed on Friday at 53.07.

10) CPG - Purchased at 3.54. Stop loss at 3.40. Stock closed on Friday at 3.49.

11) ARNA - Averaged long at 46.62 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 50.82 on a daily closing basis. Stock closed on Friday at 53.41.


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Previous Newsletters

View Jan 20, 2019 Newsletter

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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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