Issue #625 ![]() Aug 11, 2019 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Failure Signals Confirmed. Bulls Under Attack!
DOW Friday closing price - 26287
The indexes all confirmed the previous week's failure signals with an additional red weekly close. Nonetheless, it was a wild week in which the indexes fell more than 4% in value but then rallied from the lows to close near the highs of the week, suggesting that at some point this week (likely at the beginning of the week), the indexes will go above last week's high and up to the resistance levels that are likely to be tested before new and more concentrated selling is seen. In the DOW last week's high was 26413 and resistance is found at 26616/26695 and again at 26951, in the SPX last week's high was 2938 and resistance is found at 2940 and at 2954 and in the NASDAQ last week's high was 8041 and resistance is found at 8133 and at 8176.
The recent weakness was caused by anticipation that the Trade War will continue, actions by the Chinese to devalue their currency, and that interest rates will not be cut down by the amount anticipated but neither of these factors has been proven to be true yet or meaningful as to the negatives involved, meaning that chart actions (such as retesting of the previous and/or recent all-time highs) is a requirement before the traders commit to further downside. This is especially true with the SPX and the NASDAQ that made new all-time highs just 3 weeks ago and other than a failure signal being given, no required/needed chart retest of those levels has been seen. That is likely to change this week as any rally above a previous week's high will mean that a successful retest is likely in the process of occurring, if thereafter the indexes go below a previous week's low, if and when no new highs are made. That is what is likely happening and if confirmed, stronger selling than before will be seen.
The negatives that caused this recent drop have not been negated and as stated in the previous newsletter, they have no chance to be negated for at least 3 weeks (when the next round of important economic reports occur) if not until September 18th (5 weeks) which is when the Fed announces their next rate decision, other than if a trade agreement is made but then again the two sides are not meeting until the first week of September. Simply stated, the traders have no fundamental ammunition at this time to generate buying interest while the bears at least have negative outlooks to build on. In addition and specifically on a chart basis, no close by support levels that can be depended on by the bulls from which to buy from have been built, meaning the risk/reward ratio for a bulls is negative at this time. As such, it is likely that for at least the next 3 weeks the traders will be trading the indexes exclusively on a chart basis.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor to decent resistance between 26616 and 26695 and decent between 26951 and 26966. The SPX shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 2939 and then minor to decent between 2954 and 2964. The NASDAQ shows minor resistance at 8088 and then decent between 8133 and 8147 and again at 8176.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows new but minor support at least week's low at 25440 and then minor again at 25372 and decent at the 25000 demilitarized area. The SPX shows new but minor support at last week's low at 2822 and then decent around the 28000 demilitarized zone. The NASDAQ shows minor support at last week's low at 7662 and then minor to perhaps decent around 7600 and then decent down around 7332. On a weekly closing basis, the May low in the DOW is 24815, in the SPX is 2752 and in the NASDAQ is 7453 and those are levels where chart buying will be found.
The outlook for this coming week and based on the charts alone, is for the resistance levels above be tested successfully, giving the bears higher levels from which to push lower and where the risk is known and controllable. With the indexes not having reached previous support levels of consequence this past week, the bears will feel that the downside is still open for more and will push harder knowing the bulls have no ammunitions at this time. Volatility is likely to remain and that favors the bulls. The VIX closed near the 7-month high at 18.17 (closed at 17.97) and that was a high seen in May when the indexes were volatile but moving to the upside. A rally up to the $26 and even $29 level is possible and even likely, meaning the downside action is not yet over.
The last time the SPX made a new all-time high and then gave a failure signal, the index generated 4 red weeks in a row and fell 6% in value. Using that example, if that is mimicked this time, the index would have a 2843 objective, which was already reached this week. Then again, the first time the index made a new all-time high and generated a failure signal, the index fell 20.2% and if that time is mimicked here, it would offer a 2413 downside objective. Common sense and considering what is at play at this time, it is likely this correction will be more than the last one but less than the first one. I would venture an educated guess and say the index will at least drop to 2800 and possibly as low as 2750, which would mean a correction of about 8% in value. The fact the index has only generated 2 red close weeks, also suggests there is more to come. By the same token, it is more likely the correction will be more than the last one given that there is no fundamental reason to buy for the next 3-5 weeks and 2 previous all-time highs were broken in the DOW and NAZ and that is a strong negative stimulator, especially since the outlook for the rest of the year is for lower earnings and lower GDP.
CPI and Retail Sales are the only 2 economic reports of consequence due out this week and neither of them are likely to have an impact on the market. Probabilities favor the bulls at the beginning of the week but the bears at the latter part of the week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The indexes confirmed the failure signals given the past week but the bulls were able to rally to close near the highs of the week, suggesting a retest of the all-time highs will be seen this week. This rally is likely to be an opportunity for traders to short the market at levels where risk is controlled and not where chasing is occurring. All mentions this week are sales but they are the same ones given last week.
SALES
DIS Friday Closing Price - 138.54
DIS reported earnings this past week and they were worse than expected and the stock fell 6.7% in value. Nonetheless, the established weekly close support at 132.04 held up (stock got down to 132.26) and the stock bounced to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 141.95 will be seen this week. The stock is also somewhat mimicking the action in the index market, meaning the recent all-time high at 147.15 needs to be retested successfully before new selling interest is seen. It does have to be mentioned that the stock did generate a new sell signal on the weekly chart, having closed on Friday below the low weekly close at 139.64 and if that is confirmed next Friday with another close below that level, new selling interest will be seen.
DIS is likely more of a sell candidate than last week when the sell mention was given since it is showing less earnings than expected and has now built a solid top to this rally from which traders can short with a limitation of risk and a high probability number. In addition, a sell signal on the weekly closing chart has now been given.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, DIS is showing resistance at 142.37, at 143.51 and at 145.43. On a weekly closing basis, there is resistance at 142.95 that is likely to be the target this week but the bears are likely to jump in around that price, especially considering than any daily close above 142.03 would negate last week's break.
It does need to be mentioned that given the worse than expected earnings report and the sell signal given, any weekly close in DIS below 132.04 would generate a clear downside target of the $120 demilitarized zone, which was not as clear as last week but is clearer now.
Sales of DIS above $142 using at a weekly close stop loss at 144.75 and having a $120 objective will offer an 8-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is now a 4 (last week it was 3.5) (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
The 2 mentions below are both in the semiconductor industry. Only one of them should be done. Pick the one you feel most comfortable with.
ENTG Friday Closing Price - 41.53
ENTG mimicked the index market this past week, having fallen 4% in value but then reversing to close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high a 42.03 will be seen this week. On a negative note, Friday's close was confirmation of the failure signal given the previous week when the stock closed at 41.54 and below the previous all-time high weekly close at 41.99.
ENTG is a semiconductor company in an industry that is presently under pressure due to the China Trade War. The stock made a new all-time high 2 weeks ago with a rally up to 45.12 but has seen no follow though given that the new high made 2 weeks ago was never confirmed. The stock over the past 14 months has made 3 new all-time highs and the previous 2 generated corrections of 36% and 19% shortly thereafter. The previous all-time high went 9% above the one before and this one has been 5% above the previous one. In addition and more importantly, the stock has no generated a confirmed failure signal, having closed 2 weeks in a row below the previous all-time high weekly close at 42.01, strongly suggesting that further downside is to be seen.
ENTG is a good company to "trade" given that it has shown volatility in the past and trading ranges that offer good risk/reward ratios for a rather low-priced stock. With corrections of 36% and 19% being seen in the last 2 all-time highs, if the same is seen on this correction it will offer a trade that is worthwhile.
The weekly closing chart of ENTG suggests a high probability of a drop down to the $36 and a decent probability of a drop down to $34. Both of these objectives would leave the chart in a bullish long term trend. If by any chance the indexes and the stock have formed a major top from where a downtrend is to start, the 200-week MA, currently at 25.35, would be the objective.
Last week, the hard part was finding a decent entry point to short ENTG. Nonetheless, the action seen in the intraday 10-minute chart over the past 20 days, as well as the close near the high of the week that strongly suggests last week's high will be broken but the all-time high now likely being set, suggests that a rally up to 43.00-43.47 will be seen this week.
Sales of ENTG between 43.00 and 43.47 and using a stop loss at 45.35 and having an objective of $36, would offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
VSH Friday Closing Price - 15.87
VSH is also in the semiconductor industry and it has a higher probability rating than ENTG.
VSH showed a lot more weakness this past week than VSH or the index market, having fallen 9% below the previous week's close. In addition, it broke one of 2 intraweek supports, having gone below 15.26 but not below 15.06 (low for the week was 15.16). Like the other stock and the indexes, VSH rallied to close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 16.29 will be seen this week.
VSH broke above the 200-week MA, currently at 17.10, 3 years ago in July 2016 and stayed above the line until 13 weeks ago when the line was broken to the downside. For the past 13 weeks the bulls have been unable to get above the line on a weekly closing basis though 2 weeks ago the stock closed at the line. The previous week, the stock made a new 13-week intraweek high but then reversed to close in the red and near the low of the week, suggesting that there is no buying interest above the line at this time. With the action seen in the index market and the likely short-term outlook, it does suggest that this coming week the stock will likely attempt to get back up to the line and test successfully the MA line again as well as the intraweek high that was made 3 weeks ago at 17.82. If that occurs, it will give the bears new and strong ammunition to take the stock back down below the $15 level and to the objective down at $12.
It is clearly evident that VSH is in a bearish trend and now more so because the semiconductor industry is under pressure because of the China trade war. Over the past 15 years, the stock has traded about 40% of the time (during different periods of time) between the $10 and $14 level with most of the support on a weekly closing basis being at $12, meaning that the bearish flag formation objective is viable.
VSH shows clear intraweek resistance at 17.08, which is also where the 200-day MA is currently at.
Below the $15 level, VSH shows no intraweek support until 13.13.37/13.66 is reached but that support is considered minor. Stronger support is found between 12.37 and 12.68 and looking even further back before the last 5 years, the stock has shown a strong propensity for drops down to the 12.00 level.
Sales of VSH above 17.00 and using a stop loss at 17.92 and having a 12.00 objective will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
I will also be adding shorts in AAPL around the $207 level with a stop loss at 210.35 and having a $180 objective, which is an 8-1 risk/reward ratio. See below on "updates on held stocks" for details.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AAPL made a new 9-month intraweek high at 221.37 the previous week and without any negative fundamental changes occurring since, a retest of that high is likely to be seen before new selling appears. By the same token and on a weekly closing basis, the bulls were unable to make a new multi-month weekly closing high, having closed at 207.74 which was below the 9-month weekly closing high at 211.75, suggesting that any rally seen this week will encounter strong selling as it nears 207.74. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 203.53 is likely to be seen this week suggesting that somewhere between that high at 207.74, the bears will step in. There is an open gap between 206.43 and 206.74 that will work as a magnet but there is established (though minor) intraweek resistance between 208.54 and 209.15 that is likely to stop any rally. Like with the indexes, the stock got down to a level at 192.74 where no previously establish support is found, suggesting that if the retest is successful, that a drop below that low will be seen. A rally up to around 207.74 should be considered for new sales. Probabilities favor the bulls at the beginning of the week but the bears toward the latter part of the week. ARNA reported worse than expected earnings and dropped 14.5% in value. The drop was likely aggravated by the fact that no support of consequence had been built on the way up, especially below 59.67. On an intraweek basis, there is no support until the 42.63 level is reached. Nonetheless, on a daily and weekly closing basis, there is decent support at the previous 4-year weekly closing high at 50.93 and some at the previous 5-year weekly closing high at 54.30. With the stock having closed at 54.10, another red close would strongly suggest the $50 level will be visited. Monday is likely to be short-term important for the week given that the stock closed at the 100-day MA, currently at 53.90, and that line has not been broken for the past 8 months. A red close on Monday below 53.90 would strongly increase the chances of the stock dropping further. It also needs to be mentioned that on the daily chart there is some intraweek support between 52.20 and 52.51 and given that the low for the week was 52.64, it is likely that is what caused the stock to bounce and close $1.46 above the low of the week. Nonetheless, on both charts the stock closed either near the low of the week or in the case of the daily chart, in the lower half of Friday's trading range. If the 52.20 intraweek low is broken, the likely intraweek downside objective is the 200-day MA, currently at 48.20. Friday's high was 55.95 and if broken on Monday would give the bulls a slight short-term edge. Nonetheless, intraweek resistance is now decent at 58.00. Probabilities favor the bears. The outlook for the next few weeks is likely to be a trading range between $48 and $58. AU generated another new 3-year weekly closing high on Friday but more importantly closed above the important weekly close resistance at 19.36 from March 2014, confirming one more time that this rally is for real and likely to continue. Nonetheless, there is one more decent to perhaps even strong weekly close resistance at 21.91 that needs to be addressed before the bulls gets aggressive in their purchases. This coincides with the weekly close resistance found in Gold between $1505 and $1539 that will be difficult to break the first time around. Gold had a high this past week of $1522 and closed at $1508 but did close near the high of the week, suggesting the $1539 level will be visited. It is important to note that on an intraweek basis, the resistance is at $1575, so intraweek it could go higher than $1539. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that some mini correction might be starting. Weekly close support though, should now be found at 19.36. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls for the long term but it is likely that for the next 1-3 weeks that the stock will see some backing and filling. On a positive note, stops can now be set at 16.72. CPG generated a reversal week, having made a new 4-month low and giving a sell signal on the daily closing chart but then turning around to negate the sell signal and close at the same level as the previous week. This was the same situation that happened with oil, having generated a sell signal on the daily chart but then not on the weekly chart. By the same token, oil did generate a failure signal having closed on Friday below the important support at 55.25 (closed at 54.22). The action seen in oil and the stocks suggests that there is not yet enough negatives for the bulls to abandon positions but does underlie the fact that the industry has no strength at this time. The stock did close on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 3.15 is likely to be seen. Pivotal resistance is found at 3.40 that includes a double intraweek high as well as the 200-day MA. A break above that level would be a bullish statement. I don't believe the bulls can do it. The high for the week is likely to be somewhere between 3.23 and 3.30 and I am planning on liquidating the positions I have and scratch the trade or take a small loss as I am averaged long at 3.28. The probabilities favor either more sideways action continuing to be seen or more downside and there are likely better places to put the money to work, at least for a "trader". CRON reported earnings this week and they were better than expected, causing the stock to gap up and above the 200-day MA, currently at 15.15. Nonetheless and almost immediately, the stock fell and the end result was a red weekly close that brings a bit of confusion to the chart. The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 13.01 will be seen. Intraweek support is found at 12.72 that is of importance given that it is also the level where the previous all-time high weekly close at 12.72 is found. A weekly close below that level would generate a failure signal and likely bring additional selling interest. As such, the bulls will have to play a close game this week and allow the stock to fall below 13.01 but not below 12.72. If that occurs and the following week the bulls can get above whatever high this week brings, a needed and required retest of the recent low as well as of the breakout level will occur and that would bring in new buying interest. The better than expected earnings and the fact that this is a growth industry and not affected by the indexes, suggests the bulls will be able to pull it off. Nonetheless, it also means it is a pivotal week and those are always scary. Evidently, last week's high at 15.58 is now pivotal resistance that if broken would generate a strong buy signal. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. CVS reported earnings and they were better than expected and a new 6-month weekly closing high occurred. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 59.52 is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at the high 6 weeks ago at 60.13. Nonetheless, the resistance that is important and meaningful is the previous low weekly close 6-year low weekly close as well as the high weekly close seen in July 2013 at 61.96. If the bulls can close above those 2 weekly closes, there is no weekly close resistance until the $70 level is reached. I don't believe the bulls can get that feat accomplished this time given the likely weakness to be seen in the index market and therefore I am planning to take profit are 60.86 or slightly above. Chart suggests that a drop back down to the $56 level would likely be seen, which would be a good area to re-buy. There is no intraweek resistance above until the $66 level is reached, so there is a small possibility the stock could rally as high as that area before falling back to close around the $61 area on Friday. As far as the downside is concerned, closure of the runaway gap at 58.28 would be seen as a short-term negative. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG closed above the 200-week MA, currently at 1.16, for the first time in 28 months and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.29 is likely to be seen this week. The bulls still have more to do as there is pivotal resistance at 1.47 (1.39 on a weekly closing basis). Nonetheless, in the last 10 years the stock has shown this kind of action on 4 previous occasions and they all ended up with a strong short term rally. Using those 4 previous occasions to draw a "perfect" trend line, upside objective of this rally is the 2.00 level and likely to be reached within 8-10 weeks of the pivotal resistance breakout. If this breakout above the MA line is confirmed next Friday, the 1.47 level will be tested and likely broken within 2-3 weeks. Support on a daily closing basis is now found at the 1.10-1.11 level. Probabilities favor the bulls. FNV generated another new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high (the 3rd in the last 4 weeks) and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 95.41 will be seen this week. The mention's objective was the $100 area and that is fast approaching. Somewhere between $97 and $103 it is likely that some correction will be seen. A new support level was built this week at 90.12, meaning that the stop loss can now be raised from last week's 85.44 to 89.65. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls. FSLR broke the 25-trading day support at 64.16 and promptly dropped to the established support at the $60 demilitarized zone with a low at 59.67. The bulls did step up and purchased the stock and were able to rally the stock above the breakdown point at 64.16 but were no able to confirm the negation of the break with 2 closes above it. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above 65.21 is expected to be seen this week. The stock is clearly showing the same type of action as is being seen in the index market and if that is the case, the stock will likely retest the recent high at 69.24 and then proceed back down toward the $60 level. Resistance will be found 67.20 and 67.99 and consideration should be given to taking profits in that area. Some minor but possible short-term pivotal support is now found at 61.80. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. JD got down to decent intraweek support between 25.48 and 25.81 with a low at 25.77 this past week. Buying interest was found in that area and the stock bounced up to close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 27.64 will be seen this week. There is no resistance until 29.70 is reached and then nothing until 30.89/31.63 is reached. Pivotal long term resistance is found at 32.38. This stock would generally move with the index market but given that it is a Chinese stock and it has been predicted that Chinese stocks will begin to outperform U.S. stocks, this could be the case with this stock. By the same token, the stock remains below the 200-week MA and given that more weakness is expected to be seen in the index market, probabilities favor the stock trading between $26 and $31 for the next few weeks, meaning that if the stock gets close to the $31 level, consideration should be given to taking profits and re-buying on dips down near the $26 level. Longer term outlook for the stock is either $36 or as high as $43. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. SRUTF generated a 3rd green weekly close in a row as well as a new 3 week intraweek high. Nonetheless and in spite of those positive actions, the bulls have not yet been able to make a bull statement given that the 200-day MA, currently at .4268, has not yet been broken. The stock did close on Tuesday at .43, which was in effect a successful retest of the line. That retest did not bring new selling interest and therefore the bulls remain with a slight edge. A confirmed daily close above .43 would be a bull statement that would open the door for a rally up to the .5-.55 level. Support is now found at .39 that if broken would defuse some of the recent strength. Probabilities favor the bulls.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.19. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.41 (new price (54.10). 3) FSLR - Averaged long at 43.835. (2 mentions). No stop loss now at present. Stock closed on Friday at 63.50. 4) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .07. 5) AAPL - Averaged short at 190.71 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 200.99. 6) IBM - Covered short at 139.46. Loss on the trade of $676 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions. 7) CVS - Purchased at 58.13. Averaged long at 56.43 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 59.29. 8) CPG - Averaged long at 3.28 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 2.66. Stock closed on Friday at 3.12. 9) FNV - Purchased at 85.28. Stop loss now at 89.65. Stock closed on Friday at 93.74. 10) CRON - Purchased at 13.82. Liquidated at 13.93. Profit of $11 per 100 shares minus commissions. 11) CRON - Averaged long at 14.033 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 13.36. 12) AU - Averaged long at 18.86 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 16.72. Stock closed on Friday at 20.24. 13) MDT - Covered shorts at 100.82. Profit on the trade of $512 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions. 14) JD - Purchased at 26.42. Stop loss at 25.38. Stock closed at 27.10.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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