Issue #622
Jul 21, 2019
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Negative Reversal Week Across the Board. Top to Rally Found?

DOW Friday closing price - 27154
SPX Friday closing price - 2974
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 8146

All the indexes generated a negative reversal action this past week, having made a new all-time high and then closing red on Friday and below the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 27068, SPX at 2973 and NAZ below 8135) will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the only index where it can be said the negative reversal is a sign of things to come is in the NASDAQ where the close on Friday was below the previous all-time high weekly close at 8161, meaning that a failure signal was given. In the case of the DOW and the SPX, the negative reversals just suggest that the indexes may be retesting the previous weekly close breakout points above the previous all-time high weekly closes (DOW at 26743 and SPX at 2754), which is almost always expected to occur at some point and is not a negative sign as it seems to be in the NASDAQ where a failure signal was given. The NAZ did have a specific reason for the weakness given that NFLX did have a negative earnings report and fell 13% in value. It does open the door for the question to be asked "is this an overall signal that the market has found a top or simply a sign that the Tech Industry has found a top"? Either way, all signals given always need to be confirmed the following week, meaning that nothing was clearly decided this past week.

The first week of earnings is over and overall earnings did beat expectations by a 2-1 ratio but with 80% of the companies lowering expectations over the past 2 weeks, is it a surprise that they came in better than expected? None of the companies that I checked on beat earnings by enough of a margin as to say that the beat was a big surprise. By the same token and with another 2 weeks of earnings reports to come, as well as the Fed rate decision on the 31st, there is not enough information to make a clear decision at this time. AMZN, GOOGL and FB as well as CAT, MMM, BA and INTC report this week, meaning that by next Friday there will be a clearer picture of what and how much the earnings mean.

Nonetheless and considering that it is unlikely that there will be any big surprises in the earnings reports, the traders are still looking the FOMC rate decision at the end of the month as the key issue that will determine the direction and perhaps even fate of the market for the rest of the year. Prior to the last 2 weeks, expectations favored a 50 point rate cut this month but as the economic reports have come out better than expected of late, that expectation has ebbed to where a 25 point rate cut is about as likely to be seen as a 50 point one. By the same token, the possibility of there being no rate cut has emerged to be point that the "patient now is showing signs of not being dead" and that opens a big "can of worms" given that if that possibility occurs, it would be a death blow to the market for the rest of the year. The Fed will get two more important numbers this week in the form of the Durable Goods orders that are expected to be higher at 1% (versus last month's at -1.3%) and the new GDP number that is expected to come in at 1.8% (versus last month's 3.1%). If those numbers come in higher than expected, the market will sell off based on the idea that the Fed would surely not cut by 50 points but only by 25 points or no cut at all.

As you can see, there are still quite a few things to be decided before the traders can make an intelligent decision as to what direction the market will take starting August.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows resistance at the all-time high at 27398, the SPX at 3017 and the NASDAQ at 8264. Above those levels, there is no resistance, psychological or otherwise.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 27068 and rally-stopping support at 26665 and pivotal support at 26465, which is further supported by the 200-day MA, currently at 25508. The SPX shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 2973 and then rally stopping support at 2963 and likely pivotal support at 2912. The NASDAQ shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 8135 but rally-stopping support at 8061 and then minor but pivotal support at 7879.

As to the overall outlook for the index market, nothing is yet clear or decided but the reality is that this recent 7-week rally that started the first week of June has caused the indexes to appreciate 10% in value and yet there has not been one single change to the fundamental picture. The momentum was what was helping the bulls but that is now over and the question does remain "is this rally truly supported by the fundamentals"? I don't believe it is and in my opinion nothing will be coming out in the next 2 weeks that will cause a positive change above what is already expected and there are quite a few things that could easily come in surprisingly worse than expected. As such, I do believe the top to this rally has been seen and that the bears now have the probabilities in favor, with the only question being "how much can be bears gain?".

As such, I have to say that the probabilities favor the bears this week and for the rest of the year.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions this week given that my portfolio is full to the brim. It is possible that I will be liquidating some positions this week such as CCJ and perhaps IBM and therefore some money will become available and if there is something looking attractive I will let you know on the message board.

By the same token, it is unlikely that anything of consequence will happen until the Fed announces their decision on interest rates on the 31st, as such there is not much to trade or "to miss trading" at this time. Overall and in spite of the short positions held that are causing some pain, the positions moving in favor are more than overcoming the losses so things remain positive. In about 10 days things will be clear enough to be aggressive in trading.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AAPL confirmed the previous week's red close with a second red close in a row, suggesting that the close 3 weeks ago at 204.23 is now the second successful retest of the downtrend that started 11 months ago. This past week's action was even more indicative from the fact that the stock made a new 10-week high and generated a negative reversal week, much like what was seen in the index market. On additional negative for the bulls is that the stock moved up to a downtrend line that started when the stock made the all-time high at 233.47 and though that downtrend line is based on the weekly close, the fact the stock reversed after reaching the line on an intraweek basis, is still a negative. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 202.36 is expected to be seen. There is pivotal support on the weekly chart at 198.41 that if broken would leave the door open for a drop all the way down to 184.58 given there is no support found on the weekly chart until that level is reached and even then, that support is minor at best. It does need to be mentioned that there is no support of consequence on the daily chart either. The only support of some consequence is found on the intraday hourly chart with the 200 60-minute MA currently being at 200.10 and that line has held up since June 7th when it was first broken to the upside. As such, I would venture to say that is the target for the stock this week. Minor but possibly indicative resistance is found at 205.08 and at 206.11 and definitely pivotal at the recent high 206.50 that if broken would negate the negative reversal week. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

ARNA bulls once again attempted to break the intraweek resistance at 62.80 with a rally this past week to 62.75. Nonetheless, that level has been steadfast resistance as the stock has been up to 62.64, 62.44 and now 62.75 and the level has not broken. One additional though minor negative is that the previous multi-year high weekly close at 61.89, which was seen 3 weeks ago, did not get broken as the stock closed on Friday at 61.82. More interestingly, the stock traded above that level for 99% of the day on Friday but at the very end the bulls were unable to break that level. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside is likely to be seen and the 62.80 level likely to be broken, if for no other reason that a triple top is now seen on the daily chart, suggesting quite a few stop losses are not above that level and the traders are likely to go after them. By the same token, if the intraweek level of resistance is broken but the index market heads lower, chances are there will be no follow through and if the stock generates a red weekly close next week, a double top on the weekly closing chart will be generated at 61.89/61.82 that would bring in new selling interest. As such, this could be a wild week of action. Any daily close below 59.83 would give the edge to the bears and a weekly close below 58.41 would give them short-term control as a failure signal will have been generated. A failure signal would suggest a drop down to the $50 level would occur. The company has a strong fundamental basis that overall gives the bulls the probabilities for the long term outlook but for the short-term, the stock is likely to be in a trading range with the floor being the $50 level and the top being anywhere between $63 and $67. Probabilities very slightly favor the bears this week.

AU bulls accomplished what they needed to do to turn this recent breakout into a "confirmed" breakout, having closed the gap at 19.03 and even going above the important intraweek high seen in March 2014 at 19.36 with a high this past week at 19.63. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside is likely to be seen. A very slight question mark remained on the weekly closing chart given that the weekly close in March 2014 was at 19.36 and Friday's close was at 19.21. In 2014 that weekly close caused the stock to drop back down to the $15 level and that doubt is likely to remain until the Fed rate announcement is made 11 days from now. This suggests that the stock may close around this same level next Friday while the traders wait for the rate decision. Nonetheless, any weekly close next Friday above the $20 demilitarized zone would be a statement that would strongly suggest that the 5+year high weekly close at 21.91 will the next target. Keep in mind that any confirmed weekly close above 21.91 would mean that the stock and Gold would be in a new bull market. The 18.36 level on a daily closing basis is now short-term pivotal support, meaning that is such a close occurs and is confirmed, that the rally has fizzled out temporarily. Probabilities favor the bulls though this week could be a backing and filling week while the trader await the Fed news on the rate cut.

BABA generated what can be considered a "chart week" inasmuch as the traders targeted chart points to be fulfilled. The bearish gap formation was negated (the gap was closed) and the stock went above the previous week's high, opening the door for the required/needed retest of the recent high 177.95. Closure of the island formation was a high probability given that islands are "extremely" rare and normally are associated with a fundamental change and that has not been the case on this stock. The stock did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher possibility of going above last week's high at 174.22 than below last week's low at 170.42 but that is likely to be decided depending on what the index market does. On a slightly bearish note, the most recent high weekly close is 173.30 and the stock traded above that level 99% of the time on Friday but in the last 5 minutes of trading the stock fell and closed below that level at 172.95, suggesting the bulls are not in control as the past 2 months have alluded to. Evidently a new intraweek high above 177.95 or a weekly close above 173,30 would be a strong positive. On the other hand, a drop below last week's low at 170.42 would be seen as a positive for the bears. The intraday chart suggests that if Thursday's low at 172.06 is broken, the bears will gain the edge Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

CCJ received negative news this past week in the form of a court judgement in their favor of $42 million but what had been expected was more (suit was for $700 million). The news caused the stock to lose 10% in value and negate the break above the 200-week MA the bulls had accomplished the week before. Nonetheless and even though the stock got back down to the low seen 6 weeks ago at 9.91, the bears were unable to break it and also on the weekly closing chart the stock rallied enough to close above the most recent low weekly close at 10.03 (closed on Friday at 10.23), suggesting that the news was not sufficient to break support. Nonetheless, the stock did close near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 9.91 is expected to be seen and if the bottom of the $10 demilitarized zone at 9.70 is broken, the chart selling that is likely to be seen will probably tip the scales to the bears. What the bulls need to do is defend the demilitarized zone and generate a green weekly close next Friday. The probabilities favor that scenario and evidently if the bulls are able to close once again above the 200-week MA, currently at 10.74, it will be the 5th time that break occurs and 5 times is usually "the charm". On the other side of the coin, this stock has been stuck between $10 and $12 for the past 15 months and the question to ask is "is it worth it to keep the stock when the money could be working better somewhere else"? That answer might be given this week.

CLB generated an uneventful inside week but given that oil was under pressure it has to be said that an inside week is actually a positive rather than a negative. The stock did generate a red weekly close but closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 55.07 will be seen this week. If that is seen and a daily close above 55.00 occurs it will be seen as a breakout as 55.00 (on a daily and weekly closing basis) has been a brick wall for the last 2 months. Based on the chart alone, the probabilities favor the bulls but the problems in the middle-east is a fundamental quagmire that is a monkey wrench that cannot be decrypted easily. Nonetheless, since the stock made the low at 46.32 in May, each low on the daily chart has been higher than the previous one and that is a very positive chart action. It does suggest though, that if last week's low at 52.39 is broken that the bears will gain an edge. As such, I am raising my stop loss to 52.29 and locking in some profits.

CPG made a new 5-week intraweek low this past week but the break of the 3.02 support was not confirmed given that on Friday the stock closed above that same 5-week daily closing low at 3.07, suggesting the traders still have no clear idea of what to do. As it is, the stock has been trading mostly between 3.00 and 3.50 for the past 8 months with one small foray below that level and 1 medium foray above that level during this period of time. As of right now, there is nothing I see that suggests anything other than continuation of that sideways trend. Resistance is found at 3.47 and at 3.56 and support is now last week's low at 2.95. Whichever of those levels gets broken first will determine direction. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but only for a small recovery.

CRON generated a green weekly close that makes the previous week's close at 14.24 into the needed/required retest of the 5-month low weekly close at 14.08. If another green weekly close occurs next Friday, the successful retest will be confirmed and new buying of consequence is likely to be seen. The stock did generate a positive reversal week, having made a new 6-week low but then closing green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 15.33 will be seen this week. There is minor but short-term pivotal resistance at 15.85 that if broken would give the bulls new ammunition. It also needs to be mentioned that the stock broke the 200-day MA this past week when closure of the gap at 14.45 needed to be seen. Nonetheless, the very next day the break of the line was negated and the negation confirmed with 4 daily closes above the line. This same situation happened on June 3-4 and the stock then proceeded to move up to 17.73. There is reason to believe that on this occasion and after the successful retest of the low, that the bulls will be able to break above the 17.73 level and target the $20 area which is the announced target of several rating agencies. The chart is now fulfilled to the downside, meaning that any break below last week's low at 13.91 would now be a strong negative sign. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CVS failed to confirm the breakout seen the previous week, having closed on Friday below the previous high weekly close at 56.66 (closed at 55.94). In addition, the stock had an inside week (no follow through to the upside after last week's spike rally and close in the upper half of the week's trading range) and close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 55.47 will be seen this week. Then again, one of the magnets the bears had this week is that the news the previous week created a gap that was not supported by the news and the gap needed to be closed and that happened on Thursday, meaning that the need for further downside is no longer there and the news is still a longer term positive. There is intraweek support at 54.66 that is minor but short-term indicative and therefore should not be broken. Once again, resistance is found between 57.61 and 57.75 that if broken would likely generate at least a retest of the recent high at 60.13. Overall, the chart picture remains mostly the same but now with a slight tint toward the bulls. The fundamental picture though, remains positive at these prices. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

ENG generated a relatively uneventful week given that the previous highs were reached but not broken. On the plus side, the stock generated a second green weekly close and confirmed the small breakout seen the week before at .92. The problem the bulls ran into this week is that the $1.00 level is a decent psychological resistance and it is not easy to break. By the same token, there are chart and fundamental reasons to believe it will be broken and most likely this week as the stock closed near the highs of the week, suggesting last week's high at .99 will be broken this week. The .99 cent level was decent resistance from November 2014 through April 2015 and is also decent psychological resistance. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis no resistance is found until very minor at 1.04 and then minor to perhaps decent resistance between 1.13 and 1.16. On an intraweek basis, the stock did get up to 1.16 a couple of weeks ago and a retest of that level seems to be a high probability. That level is important from the fact that is where the 200-day MA is presently at. Support is now pivotal at .81. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FNV made yet another new all-time high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 90.70 will be seen this week. This is now the 3rd new all-time high made in the last 4 weeks and with Gold also making a new 5-year intraweek and weekly closing high, more upside is expected to be seen in the stock. Given that there is no resistance above, the $100 demilitarized zone ($97-$103) is the target as that level will act as a magnet. Intraweek support is found at 81.79 but given the confirmed breakout on the weekly closing chart, the stock should no longer see any weekly closes below 84.45. The same applies to the daily closing chart and there no daily closes below 86.31 should be seen any more. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls.

FSLR generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low but then closing green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 67.20 will be seen this week. The positive reversal has a bit of extra meaning given that the previous week the stock generated a negative reversal that did see follow through to the downside on an intraweek basis but none on a weekly closing basis. It does suggest the bulls remain in control. There is short-term pivotal resistance at 67.99 but last week's low at 64.43 is broken, a drop down to the $60 level is likely to occur. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

IBM received a better than expected earnings report and made a new 9-month intraweek and weekly closing high. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 151.59 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls had a chance to make a bull statement by generating a weekly close above 151.35 which was the previous high weekly close where the downtrend began that took the stock down to 105.94 in just a period of 13 weeks. The stock traded above that level for about 30 minutes on Friday but then sold off to close almost $2 below, suggesting the earnings report was not good enough to negate "all" the weakness seen the past 9 months, meaning that it needs help from the index market to make that leap. Nonetheless, this short trade is now highly likely to be a loser unless the index market enters into a strong correction and that is at best a 50-50 probability. Support will now be found at the previous daily closing high at 145.14 that is highly likely to be seen if the index market simply does not go higher. If the index market does head lower and the daily close support at 145.14 as well as the weekly close support at 144.45 is broken, then decent support will be found at the $140 demilitarized zone that at this time and based on the present fundamentals, is likely to be the most that can be recouped on this trade. Probabilities slight favor the bears this week though not for much gain.

LNTH generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then above the previous week's high and closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 28.73 will be seen this week. The failure of the bears to even get close to the previous all-time intraweek high at 26.40 (got down to 26.86 this past week), suggests the bulls are still in full control and that the recent high at 29.80 is still likely to be broken and probably sooner than later. Nonetheless, nothing has really changed regarding support and resistance. The upside objective remains the $30-$31 level and seeing a backing and filling scenario occur it keeps the objective likely to be reached. Any daily or weekly close below 26.07 would be seen as a negative. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .95.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.18 (new price (61.82).

3) FSLR - Averaged long at 43.835. (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 61.40. Stock closed on Friday at 66.53.

4) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.24.

5) LNTH - Averaged long at 24.34 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 23.18. Stock closed on Friday at 28.26.

6) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0636.

7) AAPL - Averaged short at 190.71 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 202.59.

8) IBM - Averaged short at 136.08 (2 mentions) No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 149.68.

9) CVS - Purchased at 55.56. Averaged long at 55.58. No stop at present. Stock closed on Friday at 55.94.

10) CPG - Averaged long at 3.28 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 2.66. Stock closed on Friday at 3.12.

11) FNV - Purchased at 85.28. Stop loss at 81.66. Stock closed on Friday at 90.22.

12) CLB - Averaged long at 48.345 (2 mentions). Stop loss is now at 52.29. Stock closed on Friday at 54.35.

13) CRON - Averaged long at 14.065 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 13.41. Stock closed on Friday at 14.97.

14) BABA - Shorted at 170.19. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 172.99.

15) AU - Averaged long at 18.86 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 15.10. Stock closed on Friday at 19.21.

16) IBM - Shorted at 147.65. Covered shorts at 148.75. Loss on the trade of $110 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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