Issue #621
Jul 14, 2019
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


New All-Time Highs Made Across the Board. Nonetheless, Doubts Remain!

DOW Friday closing price - 27332
SPX Friday closing price - 3013
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 8244

Across the board, with the exception of the RUT, new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs were made. The DOW and the SPX convincingly broke above the psychological resistances at 27,000 and 3,000 and then proceeded to close on the highs of the week and the NASDAQ also made a new all-time high and a close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (same as the closes) are expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, with the DOW being the top performer of the week and in conjunction with the RUT still being 10% below its previous all-time high, it does strongly suggest that this rally is not a true overall market rally but one that is still highly suspect. This is further confirmed with the VIX still holding above its strong 18-month support at 11.67 (VIX should have made new 18-month lows with the indexes at new all-time highs but closed at 12.44) and there being no positive economic news released during the past month, suggesting manipulation by traders helped by computers and algorithms is the main reason for the rally, rather than any fundamental reason.

Inflation figures came in higher than expected and economic reports lower than expected and just a week ago it was reported that 80% of the companies reporting earnings this quarter revised their estimates and guidelines lower in the past 2 weeks, meaning there is no reason to believe that things are fundamentally better now than they were 18 months ago when the indexes first made new all-time highs.

Nonetheless, the one thing that the bulls have had totally in their favor since this latest rally began in in December (8 months ago) is momentum that at no time has been lost or even paused and until such a time that some negative catalyst comes out, the indexes are likely to continue going higher until they have reached the normal new all-time high guidelines of .3% above the previous highs, at which time a correction to test the breakout levels can be seen without upsetting the trend. The .3% guideline would suggest the DOW has a target of 27,759, the SPX a target of 3033, and the NASDAQ a target of 8408 before any selling or profit taking is seen.

By the same token and as has been mentioned in the newsletter the past few weeks, the SPX has made 3 new all-time highs since the original one in January 2018 and each new high has seen a correction start within 1-3 weeks of the new all-time high being made and those corrections have been of note, with the first one being 9.7%, the second one being 19.7% and the third one being 7.7%. The index is now into the 4th week of having made a new high and is already 2.3% above the previous one. The other new all-time highs that were made were 2.1% and .6% so already this one is more than the previous two. With each of the previous new highs being made were mostly based on positive earnings reports and none of them reaching the .3% guideline to upside objectives of a new high, it certainly does not seem that the indexes will go much farther than the closes seen on Friday unless earnings are much better than anticipated. Companies have tried to keep rallies in their stocks going up by giving lower earnings estimates and guidelines prior to the reports coming out but in comparison to earnings a year ago, all earnings are expected to come in lower, meaning that under estimating and coming in better than anticipated, may not work this time.

One additional problem that the bulls may have is that the bond market as early as 1 week ago was anticipating a 50 point interest rate cut at the end of July. Nonetheless, the reports last week that showed a higher than expected non-farm payroll number as well as an increase in inflation, have toned down the expectations to it more likely being just a 25 point interest rate cut. By the same token, talk has now started that perhaps the Fed may not cut at all. Evidently, a 50 rate cut will support the market and perhaps even for higher prices. Nonetheless, a 25 point cut would be somewhat deflating and no cut would be a strong negative for the index market. What this means is that the odds right now are 2-1 that the market will be disappointed come July 31st (when the announcement is made by the Fed).

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, none of the indexes show any resistance, psychological or otherwise.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor but rally-stopping support at 26665 and pivotal support at 26465. Below that, there is minor support at 26310 and again at 25958. The 200-day MA, currently at 25489 and a break of that line would be a strong negative sign. The SPX shows minor but rally stopping support at 2963 and likely pivotal support at 2912. Below that, there is support at 2900 and then again between 2860 and 2874 that is broken would open the door for a drop down to 2780. The NASDAQ shows rally -stopping support at 8061 and then minor but pivotal support at 7879. Below that, there is minor but short-term pivotal support at 7773 and then nothing until decent support between 7600 and 7627.

The traders have ignored gaps on this rally but given that none of the gaps was created by a fundamental change, those gaps remain magnets that at some point will be closed. The most recent gaps are with the DOW generating two at 27088 and at 26807, the SPX at 2981 and in the NASDAQ at 8146. These are not the only gaps seen below but are ones that have a high probability of being closed this week, which in turn would suggest the upside is limited this week as well.

Earnings reports will start coming out this week with C reporting Monday morning and GS, JPM and WFC on Tuesday morning. Those are all financial in nature and unless way out of line in one direction or the other, unlikely to have much of an effect on the indexes. Nonetheless, NFLX and IBM report on Wednesday after the close and MSFT on Thursday after the close and those are likely to have more effect. Over 100 companies report earnings this week and the totality of those earnings reports will have some impact. This was a comment I read this past week that could give an indication of what is to come: "According to Bloomberg's data, more than 80% of S&P companies have revised their profit outlook lower. This in turn, brings analysts to reduce company projections at the fastest pace in near three years. That kind of percentage is similar to 2015 and Q4 2018 just before stocks lost 20%.

As such, I have to say that the probabilities favor the bears this week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

The only things that have a relatively high probability of continuing higher during these uncertain economic times are industries that are not related to the market or even more so, industries that have been dormant during most of the index rally but that have recently given signs that they are "in vogue" again, such as commodities and more specifically Gold related companies.

As you are aware of, I am bearish on the future of the index market and do presently have 3 short positions, 2 of which are in loss. Nonetheless, with the earnings quarter beginning this week, taking a risk on more short positions without have some proof that earnings are coming down does not make any sense this week. As such, I turned my effort toward finding at least one stock that is not related to the index market or works opposite to is, has the probability quotient in its favor, has a good risk/reward ratio and has a clear support level that is close by that if broken would suggest the positive outlook. I found one that I am excited about that has a lot of positives in its favor. I also have to mention that I found it because it is 1 or 3 stocks Motley Fool is recommending as the "Top 3 Commodity Stocks to buy in 2019".

I also am mentioning in this newsletter, a stock that I have been following since September of last year and that has also given me the biggest profit for the year this year.

FNV Friday Closing Price - 85.79

FNV does not mine or drill for anything. It's what is known as a streaming and royalty company. Effectively, it provides cash to commodity producers, notably gold and silver miners and oil drillers, in exchange for the right to purchase those commodities at reduced rates in the future (or for a preset piece of the sales price in the case of royalty deals). This saves the company from having to worry about the complications of working the assets in which it invests. Moreover, the company tends to have generally wide margins in both good markets and bad and since the prices it pays are usually set as a percentage of of current spot prices. To give you an idea of just how protected the company is from commodity volatility, it has increased its dividend every year since going public in 2007. That is 12 years and counting, a period which included deep commodity downturn. It is also interesting to note that FNV has no long-term debt, generally preferring to issue shares as it inks new deals. This conservative approach makes a lot of sense as the best investment opportunities for the company will be during downturns, since that is when miners are most desperate for cash and willing to ink streaming and royalty deals.

From a chart perspective, FNV even looks better given that since its inception in 2007, the company has been in an uptrend that has not yet been broken on the monthly chart and since its first correction of consequence seen at the end of October 2012 from an all-time high at 61.60, the stock has proceeded to make 3 new all-time highs, with the most recent one just 3 weeks ago. The first new all-time high generated a 23.5% rally and the 2nd new all-time high a 6.3% rally. Using those two previous all-time rally highs, the possible upside objectives could be a minimum of up to the $90 level or as high as $105.

One additional positive to FNV is that just like Gold, the stock made a new high 3 weeks ago, tested the breakout successfully the following week, and then last week confirmed the retest by making yet another new weekly closing high. Such a scenario does offer a clear stop loss point and a clear risk/reward ratio using the price history of the stock as a guideline.

FNV generated an intraweek spike low 6 trading days ago at 81.79 which is now considered pivotal support, especially considering that the weekly close breakout point is at 84.58 and the daily close breakout is at 85.37. Evidently, closes below those levels would be a negative signal, meaning that even having a stop loss at 81.69 may be an unnecessary indulgence as this stock is not supposed to close any more below 83.66, which was the previous weeks close.

To the upside, FNV should see a minimum of $90 but given that Gold has an upside objective of $1575 (to be reached within a year), the $100 level will be a psychological magnet that would seem to be reachable based on what is happening to the metal.

Purchases of FNV at Friday's closing price of 85.81 and using a stop loss at 81.69 and having a $100 upside objective offers a 3.5-1 risk/reward ratio. Nonetheless, using a daily close stop loss at 83.56 offers a 6-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

The other mention this week is in an already held stock (CRON - Friday Closing Price - 14.24)

I am not going to go into much of an explanation about CRON as it is a stock that I gave a buy mention about a month ago, have been trading since October of last year. I was averaged long around the $8 level and took profits above $21. It is a stock that has proven to be chart-oriented and given that it is in a relatively new market (Marijuana) that has demand that is not based on economics and is Canadian based, it is a stock that is tradeable no matter what the index market does.

CRON went from 5.61 to 25.10 in just 8 months, at which time a correction began that took the stock back down to 13.51. From that price, the stock bounced up and broke a previous daily and weekly closing high and therefore giving a signal that the correction is over. The stock moved up to 17.86 and has now corrected back down to last week's low at 14.10. The stock had not yet tested the 13.51 low and this move down is likely to be the needed/required retest that will bring in new buying.

Given that the stock was recently upgraded by several rating companies to a buy with a $20 objective and the very clearly defined and pivotal support level that presently exists, this is a trade with a very good risk/reward ratio and a decent probability rating.

Purchases of CRON between 13.92 and Friday's close at 14.24 and using a stop loss at 13.41 and having at least a $20 objective offers a 7-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AAPL showed weakness throughout the week, having generated a red weekly close in spite of the new all-time highs made in the indexes. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to rally the stock to close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 204.39 will be seen this week. The bulls need to get above the high seen 2 weeks ago at 205.08 in order to resume the uptrend. If unable to do so, the bears are likely to gain the edge back. As it is, the red weekly close does force the bulls to generate a green weekly close next Friday above 204.23 or the 2nd successful retest of the all-time high will have been confirmed, which in turn would suggest no further upside will be seen and an attempt at the recent lows at 170.30 is to occur. Pivotal support is now found at 198.41 that if broken would be a strong short-term negative. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

ARNA generated an uneventful inside week but the bulls managed to close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 62.20 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, there is resistance at the high seen 2 weeks ago at 62.64 and even stronger at 62.80 and given that the stock closed near the highs of the week the previous week and were unable to follow through, the probabilities do not favor that level of resistance breaking unless the index market is able to continue higher. Pivotal support is found at 59.11 and on a daily closing basis, any close below 58.41 will generate a failure signal that would give the bears a short-term edge. Probabilities very slightly favor the bears simply because of the now proven intraweek resistance strength at 62.64/62.80.

AU made a new 35-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 18.44 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the 18.68 level is of particular importance as it represents not only an intraweek high from July 2014 at 18.69 from which the stock fell all the way down to 7.50 over a 1-year period of time but also an important gap area between 19.03 and 18.68 from August 2016 that ultimately caused the stock to drop all the way down to 7.08 and that has held up for close to 3 years. Evidently, if the resistance level is broken and the gap closed, it will be a strong sign that a mid to longer term uptrend is now in place that ultimately offers a $30 objective. If not broken the first time around, it likely means that more backing and filling and building a new support base around last week's low at 16.46 will be seen. Gold did generate a new 5-year weekly closing high as well as a successful retest of the breakout level with the previous week's red close and Friday's green close and new high. The 16.46 level is now pivotal support that if broken would negate most of the bullish action seen the past couple of weeks. As such, probabilities favor the bulls this week.

BABA generated a red weekly close, confirming the close seen 3 weeks ago at 173.30 as a possible top to this rally as well as a pivotal resistance level of consequence. Nonetheless, the bears were unable to make a statement given that even though the stock traded as low as 165.00, they were unable to close the stock below 167.52 which would have given a failure signal against the bulls, meaning that the traders are still waiting for news on the stock or the index market to resume the uptrend or get aggressive to the downside. With the stock not reporting earnings for another 4 weeks, it will all be about what the index market does this week. Pivotal intraweek support is now found at 165.00 and resistance is found between 171.37 and 171.98. The stock is still showing a strongly bearish island formation so closure of the gap at 172.82 would be a positive statement by the bulls. Probabilities continue to favor the bears.

CCJ generated an indicative positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and the closing not only above the previous week's high but confirmed the break to the upside of the 200-week MA, currently at 10.74. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 11.19 is expected to be seen. If that occurs (likely), the spike high resistance at 11.18 from December 2017 will be broken, suggesting that the 12.00 area where there is abundant and robust resistance found would be the target for this rally. Nonetheless, this is now the 4th break to the upside of the MA line in the last 8 years, all happening in the last 10 months, suggesting that after one more retest of the MA line (back down to 10.70) that the bulls will begin to take control and establish a longer lasting uptrend. Pivotal and important intraweek support is now found at 10.52 and on a daily closing basis at 10.82. Probabilities now strongly favor the bulls.

CLB made a new 7-week intraweek high though only by $.06 cents and the new high was not confirmed on the weekly closing chart as the previous weekly closing high is at 55.00 and the stock closed on Friday at 54.32. Nonetheless, the stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 55.43 is expected to be seen, meaning the probabilities of a breakout occurring this week are high. Oil did also make a new 7-week intraweek and weekly closing high and further upside is also expected to be seen with no resistance of consequence until the 61.87-62.58 level is seen (closed on Friday at 60.21). As such, it is expected the stock will continue higher this week with a 58.84 weekly close objective (60.93 on an intraweek basis) where the next decision needs to be made. The chances of oil getting up to $62 and the stock up to $60 are high but at that point further positives need to come out for further upside to occur. Pivotal intraweek support is now found at 51.09. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CPG made a new 7-week weekly closing high (like oil and CLB) but failed to make a new intraweek high by $.01 cent. Nonetheless, the stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above 3.46 is expected to be seen. There is decent resistance between 3.43 and 3.47 but if broken (likely), there is further resistance of some consequence 3.55/3.56. If that level is broken, especially on a weekly closing basis, the bulls will regain the edge. By the same token, the 200-week MA is currently at 3.68 and that line has held firm for 3 years, meaning that a fundamental positive needs to occur for that line to be broken. Support is now found at 3.21 and strongly pivotal at 3.02. Probabilities favor the bulls but only for a minor rally.

CRON had a negative week having spiked down 7.8% below last week's close and closing near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 14.10 will be seen this week. In addition, the stock closed below the 200-day MA, currently at 14.85, suggesting weakness is being seen. Nonetheless, the stock did the same thing on June 3rd and the very next trading day it reversed direction and closed green and above the MA line, suggesting the same thing could be seen now. It must be remembered that there was an open gap at 14.67 that needed to be closed and was closed on Friday, meaning that magnet is no longer there. In addition, there is decent support at 13.90 and stronger and pivotal at 13.51 and having gotten down to 14.10 last week, even if the stock follows through to the downside on Monday, those supports are not likely to be broken and therefore buying new or additional shares of the stock is the way to go, using a 13.41 stop loss. As it is, a retest of the 13.51 low had not yet occurred until the possibility of last week's move down being that required/needed retest before new and stronger buying occurs. As it is, the stock gave a new buy signal 4 weeks ago and there has been no negative news to negate that signal, suggesting this move down is mostly chart oriented. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

CVS made a new 19-week high and gave a new buy signal, having closed above the high weekly during this time at 56.66. The stock did sell off from the intraweek high seen at 60.13 but still closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high than below last week's low at 54.65. The stock (and all related drug companies) rallied on news that Trump withdrew the drug rebate program. On a weekly closing basis, there is resistance at 60.86 but intraweek, there is no resistance until 64.58 and that is considered minor. Pivotal support is now found at last week's low at 54.65. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG generated a new buy signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed above the high weekly close for this period of time at .92.The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at ,99 is expected to be seen this week. The .99 cent level was decent resistance from November 2014 through April 2015 and is also decent psychological resistance. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis no resistance is found until very minor at 1.04 and then minor to perhaps decent resistance between 1.13 and 1.16. On an intraweek basis, the stock did get up to 1.16 a couple of weeks ago and a retest of that level seems to be a high probability. That level is important from the fact that is where the 200-day MA is presently at. Support is now pivotal at .81. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FSLR generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 14-month intraweek high and the closing in the red and on the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 65.37 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the chart now shows minor to decent intraweek support at 65.05 that should be seen this week but is likely to hold. The stock is targeting the $70-$71 level with a chance of getting up to $73 and with no negative news, that area remains a target. Nonetheless, the straight up action that has been seen of late is likely to now be replaced with backing and filling action with a slight bullish bias as the stock nears the upside objective. If the $65 demilitarized zone is broken (a 64.65 print is seen), consideration can be given to taking profits as there is no support below until the $60 level is reached. Probabilities favor the bulls.

IBM made a new 12-week high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 142.92 will be seen this week. The company reports earnings on Wednesday afternoon and they are anticipated to be the same as last year at $3.09. With many companies anticipating lower earnings than last year, the probabilities do not favor the company reporting better than expected at this time. Last year's earnings did take the stock down to $139 so if they come out the same, it is likely the $139 level will be seen again. There is one big negative to the chart and that is no resistance levels of consequence have been broken on this 13% rally from the 126.85 low seen at the end of May and no retests of that 19-week low have occurred as yet and that does give the bears a slight advantage off of the earnings report this week, unless of course, the report is better than expected. Pivotal resistance is found at 145.39 and support is found at 133.58. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.

LNTH generated a red weekly close, the first in the past 6 weeks but in the end, the stock rallied enough to close in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning that there is an even chance of going below last week's low at 27.02 than above last week's high at 28.46. Then again and because the stock is in an uptrend and bullishly making new all-time highs just about every week, the probabilities favor the bulls this week rather than the bears. By the same token, a retest of the most recent weekly close breakout at 26.07 could easily occur within a bullish scenario and therefore the action last week has no negative connotations at this time. The upside objective remains the $30-$31 level and seeing a backing and filling scenario occur it keeps the objective likely to be reached. Any daily or weekly close below 26.07 would be seen as a negative. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .935.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.14 (new price (61.48).

3) FSLR - Averaged long at 43.835. (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 61.40. Stock closed on Friday at 65.98.

4) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 11.10.

5) LNTH - Averaged long at 24.34 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 23.18. Stock closed on Friday at 27.76.

6) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0625.

7) AAPL - Averaged short at 190.71 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 203.30.

8) IBM - Averaged short at 136.08 (2 mentions) No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 142.74.

9) CVS - Purchased at 55.60. No stop at present. Stock closed on Friday at 57.55.

10) CPG - Averaged long at 3.28 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 2.66. Stock closed on Friday at 3.36.

11) ARNA - Liquidated at 61.74. Profit on the trade of $3023 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.

12) CLB - Averaged long at 48.345 (2 mentions). Stop loss is at 46.22. Stock closed on Friday at 54.37.

13) CRON - Averaged long at 14.065 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 13.41. Stock closed on Friday at 14.24.

14) BABA - Shorted at 170.19. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 169.07.

15) AU - Averaged long at 18.86 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 15.10. Stock closed on Friday at 18.06.

16) IBM - Shorted at 142.81. Covered shorts at 142.61. Profit on the trade of $20 per 100 shares minus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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