Issue #626 ![]() Aug 18, 2019 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Wild Week in which both Bulls and Bears can claim some Victory. Outlook Unclear. Bears still with Edge.
DOW Friday closing price - 25886
The indexes did much the same as the previous week, inasmuch as another wild and wide trading-ranges week occurred with further red weekly closes (3rd week in a row), but once again closing above the upper half of week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW at 26426, the SPX at 2943 and the NASDAQ at 8065). Last week, the SPX and the NASDAQ did accomplish going above the previous week's highs before the big drop and that is again a possibility this week, given that there are no economic reports of consequence to prevent Friday's rally from spilling over to the upside this coming week. Nonetheless, the fact remains that nothing has changed fundamentally and the bulls still have no good reason to buy. It must be mentioned that the DOW did not follow the script that the other indexes did, inasmuch as it was unable to go above the previous week's high and did make a new 2-month low. What this normally would mean is that the indexes are about to turn positive soon. Nonetheless, the volatility being seen does not support that scenario.
As mentioned in the newsletter 2 weeks ago, the correction seen in April showed 4 red weekly closes in a row before a positive reversal occurred. Using that scenario, it would suggest that at least 1 more red weekly close will occur. On a negative note for the bulls though, last week SPX and the NASDAQ did go above the previous week's highs and that did not happen in April and if the resistances above hold up and the indexes generate another red weekly close next Friday, it will generate additional selling interest that could cause the indexes to fall further than just for 4 weeks.
There are no economic reports of consequence this coming week, suggesting that the trading will continue to be chart oriented. Based on that and on the rally at the end of the week and close in the upper half of the week's trading range, the bulls will likely attempt more upside this coming week. The DOW has quite a bit of room given that it closed at 25886 and the next resistance found is at 26277 (minor). Nonetheless, that is not the case with the SPX as last week it got above the resistance at 2939 with a high at 2943 and above that, there is decent resistance at 2954. With the index closing at 2888, the index has quite a bit of open air above before expected resistance of consequence is found. In the NASDAQ the same situation occurs as there is no decent resistance found at 8133 and a bit stronger at 8176, With the index closing at 7895, there is a lot of room above.
Nonetheless and considering the fundamentals, it is difficult to imagine the indexes getting up to those resistance levels, especially in the SPX and the NASDAQ. What this means, is that last week's highs will take center stage this week (DOW at 24426, SPX at 2943 and NASDAQ at 8065). The close on the upper half of the week's trading range suggests those highs will be broken this week but given that from those highs a drop of over 4% occurred midweek, it does not stand to reason that without some fundamentals help (none scheduled) that the bulls will be able to have that kind of success this week. This scenario is further supported by the fact that the indexes made the day's highs early Friday morning and the rest of the day the bulls were unable to follow through until the very end of the day when day trading short-covering occurred. It also needs to be mentioned that the indexes all gapped up on Friday morning and since there was no tangible news to support the gaps, those will be targeted for closure this week, making it even more difficult for the bulls to generate a follow through to the upside on the weekly chart.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor but psychological resistance at the 26,000 demilitarized zone. Above that level, there is minor to perhaps decent resistance at 26277 and then at last week's high at 26426. Above that level, there minor to decent resistance between 26616 and 26695 and decent between 26951 and 26966. The SPX does show some minor resistance at last week's high at 2893, a tiny bit stronger at 2916 and then minor to perhaps decent between 2939 and 2943. Above that level, there is decent resistance between 2954 and 2964. The NASDAQ shows some minor resistance at 7909, a bit stronger at 7946 and then minor to perhaps decent at last week's high at 8065. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 8088 and then decent between 8133 and 8147 and again at 8176.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor support at 25523, a tiny bit stronger at 25440 and pivotal at last week's low at 25339. Below that level, there is decent support at the 25000 demilitarized area. The SPX now shows minor to perhaps decent and likely short-term pivotal support between 2822 and 2825. Below that, there is decent support around the 28000 demilitarized zone. The NASDAQ shows very minor support at 7773, and minor to perhaps decent at the low made 2 weeks ago at 7662. Further support is found at 7600 and then nothing until decent down around 7332.
Based on everything stated above, the outlook for this week is cloudy with chances of sun but also chances of a storm. The bulls were able to accomplish closing above the midpoint of the week's trading range, which clouds the picture completely. I did not believe that would happen. Nonetheless, having happened, it did not do anything to clear up the picture because of the gaps below and the far distance up to last week's highs make it difficult for the bulls to get above last week's highs this week. As such, I would have to say the probabilities favor an inside week (somewhat rare) or a resumption of the downtrend, with Friday being a 1-day wonder. Nonetheless, the bulls do not find themselves without ammunition. The DOW got down last week to the 200-day MA, currently at 25596, and bounced off of it. The MA is always an important chart support, meaning that further upside could be seen this week without stretching the imagination very much.
The only thing that that be depended on is the closure of the gaps. In the DOW it is at 25639, in the SPX it is at 2856 and in the NASDAQ it is at 7805. As incredible as it may sound, the bulls will have a higher chance of success if the gaps are closed early in the week rather than later in the week, given that once that chart magnet is eliminated, they will be able to rally and close out the week once again near the highs of the week or above last week's highs, that in turn would give them new ammunition. A rally higher at the beginning of the week would force the bulls to keep going and go above last week's high but the gap magnet would still be there and the bears would jump on it. Other than this possible clue, this coming week is a bit of a flip of a coin.
Probabilities favor the seers that can look into the future and determine what is to happen.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week, especially since this week has some pivotal connotations to it that are not showing clearly defined probability numbers in either direction other than perhaps very slightly in favor of the bears. This does not mean that I have no plans to trade this week. I am looking to pick up some additional shares in FSLR if it dips again below $59, I am looking to short additional shares in ENTG around 42.65 and perhaps adding another short to AAPL if the bulls show any signs of failing to take the stock higher. The Cannabis industry and Gold stocks are also on my radar this week though I do not expect good news in the Cannabis industry and therefore unlikely to trade it or enough good news in Gold to add to existing positions at higher prices.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AAPL stopped the 2-week downturn in which a 13% loss occurred to close green, above the previous week's high and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 212.14 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls failed to close above the previous high weekly close at at 207.74, meaning that the now important 3-point trend line remains unbroken. Possibly even more important, the rally above the previous week's high opens the door for last week's high or even this week's high to become a successful retest of the 10-month high at 221.37, which is something that is required/needed for the bears to have confidence is selling. This is especially true given that 3 weeks ago, the stock broke an intraweek resistance level of importance at 215.31 that did give the short-term edge to the bulls on the intraweek chart. Like with the index market, the bulls need to generate a 2.8% rally this week just to get back up to last week's high and that is a big chore given that there won't be any new fundamental help given. Friday's low at 203.84 is now pivotal as a drop below that level would make Friday's high a successful retest of the recent high but also break the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 204.25, and given that line has only been broken once in the last 7 trading days, it would be a bearish sign. A break below the pivotal intraweek support at 199.15 would be a "dagger to the heart" of the bulls. A rally above last week's high would be a short-term positive. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. ARNA generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 13-week low and then closing green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 55.83 will be seen this week. The stock did get down last week to an important weekly close support at the previous multi-year high at 50.93 with an intraweek drop down to 51.14 and buying was seen there, probably also in response to the rally seen in the indexes. This is a stock that is fundamentally positive and the bulls overall have the long term edge. Nonetheless, having closed the previous week at 54.10, the possibilities still favor more downside, at least on a weekly closing basis. To the upside there is decent intraweek resistance at 58.00 that at this time is unlikely to be broken. By the same token, if broken it will suggest that last week's low is now a new and dependable support level. I do believe the stock is likely to trade between $49 and $58 for the next 4-6 weeks as the new support level is built from which new highs can be made. Quite a few rating companies have given a $76-$78 upside objective. Probabilities favor the bulls for the beginning of the week but the bears for the end of the week. AU generated yet another new 3-year weekly closing high on Friday, the 8th in the last 10 weeks, and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 21.10 will be seen this week. There is a breakaway gap up between 21.53 and 21.80 that closure of that gap is the likely objective for this week. The stock already got "into the gap" a couple of weeks ago with the rally up to 21.74 and this week the gap is likely to be closed. Intraweek resistance is decent at 21.96 and though it may be premature to say that it will be broken soon, the reality is that in looking at the monthly chart, the 200-month MA is currently at 28.72 and a two-point trend line is at 27.50 and those two are clear upside objectives and/or magnets that are likely to be targeted before any correction of consequence occurs. If the stock does get above last week's high this week (likely), last week's low at 18.54 will become a new and short-term pivotal support level that if broken would at least pause the uptrend. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls strongly. CRON generated a new 7-month low and in the process gave a failure signal, having closed below the previous all-time weekly closing high at 12.72. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 12.10 is expected to be seen. The problem is with the Cannabis industry in Canada as it seems that many of the Goodwill loans/credits that have been obtained for generating more growth in the crops do have negatives attached that will likely cause some short-term losses. One such company (Tilt Holdings) reported losses of over $500 million this past week because of this. On a possible positive note, CRON and two other Cannabis companies (TLRY and HEXO.T) have small exposure to the Goodwill loans and are not likely to be affected as much to them as the other large companies. Nonetheless, it was a drag on the Canadian Cannabis industry this past week and it is likely to continue this week. What does need to be seen is for those companies that are not as exposed to start showing recovery from the breaks of support seen this week. If CRON confirms the failure signal this coming week with another weekly close below 12.72, the chart downside objective will be the $10 level where there is prior history of support as well as psychological. Ultimately, this type of a problem is likely to be overcome as the Cannabis industry future is rosy and in its infancy. What needs to be decided this week is whether to hold the shares until the problem goes away or treat the stock as a trading vehicle for the short term. I will know more by the end of this week. If the failure signal is confirmed, the stock is likely to get into a sideways trading range between $10 and $16 for a few months or until the problems are resolved or in the rear-view mirror. Both the $10 and $16 levels have established support and resistance and given that the company is not exposed very much to the Goodwill loans that would be the likely scenario. Probabilities favor the bears this week. ENG had an outside week with lower lows and higher highs than the week before. From a purely technical perspective, it can be called a negative reversal week given that the weekly close was red but then again, the red close was only by $.005 cents and the stock closed exactly in the middle of the week's trading range and still above the 200-week MA, currently at 1.16, and none of that supports a negative reversal week. Bottom line is that a new 53-week high was made and the stock got up to where resistance of some consequence is found that begins at 1.338 and up to 1.47, suggesting that the selloff was more a consequence of reaching resistance than any negative connotation of trend change. The stock did have a high of 1.33 and a low of 1.022 and certainly based on the action seen the last 20 weeks with the stock almost tripling in value (from $.48 to $1.33), the probabilities continue to favor the bulls at this time. Nonetheless and over a year ago, the stock did spend 12 weeks trading between 1.10 and 1.45 with 11 of those weeks having had a high of at least 1.30 and that does suggest that the stock may mimic some of that again at this time. Simply stated, the stock could see a trading range between the 200-week MA at 1.16 and see a high of as much as 1.47 and a low as low as 1.10 that ultimately should generate a breakout (rather than a breakdown). On a positive note though, the extended trading between those 2 levels a year ago was when the stock was breaking down. In looking at the 4 previous breakouts over the past 10 years, the breakout usually occurred within 1-3 weeks of the pivotal resistance levels being reached the first time. If that is the case, anytime over the next 1-3 weeks, a run to the 2.00 level could occur. ENTG generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3 week low and then going above and closing green and above the previous week's high, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 42.65 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the daily chart does not suggest as strongly that further upside is to be seen, given that an inverted flag formation has been built with the flagpole being the drop from 45.12 to 40.00 and the flag being the trading range seen the past 11 days with last week's high at 42.65 as the top of the flag. A break below the bottom of the flag at 40.00 would offer an objective of 37.53. The stock is somewhat reliant on what the stock indexes go and those are certainly in the spotlight this week. A break above last week's high at 42.65 would suggest a rally up to at least the 44.00 level. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls. FNV generated a negative reversal week, having made a new all-time high at 96.49 and then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 90.39 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, Gold made another new multi-year high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, meaning that if Gold continues higher, the stock is likely to do the same. One of the reasons why the stock may have backed up this past week is that it got close to the "general" resistance that is found $3 below a major even level like $100 (got up to 96.49) and some automatic selling occurred. In looking at the daily chart, the 90.39 low seen last week occurred on Tuesday and on Friday the stock generated a positive reversal day, having gone below Thursday's low and then closing green and on the high of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week on Monday will be above Friday's high at 93.03. If that occurs, Friday's low at 91.05 will become a successful retest of the 90.39 low and new buying will occur. The daily chart is not as indicative as the weekly chart but in this case and with Gold looking to go higher, it is possible that the negative reversal seen on the weekly chart this past week will be negated and the uptrend continue. As it is, a high of 96.49 is not really high enough to say that the $97-$103 general resistance area has been reached, especially when these are all new all-time highs with no previous resistance built in this area yet. There is short-term pivotal resistance at 90.12 that if broken would generate some additional selling interest. As such, stops can now be raised to 89.65. FSLR generated another red weekly close but on an intraweek basis did get down to a decent support at 58.80 (got down to 58.57) and from there a bounce occurred that took the stock up $3 to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, meaning that if the stock gets above last week's high at 63.26 this week that the low of the correction will likely have been seen. As it is, I stated for several weeks now that it is likely the stock will be trading between $59/$60 and $70/$71 for the next few months and if that evaluation is correct, the stock is now on its way back up and dips should now be bought. Minor to perhaps decent intraweek resistance is found at 63.82 that will likely determine whether the stock will head back down to test support or continue higher immediately. The chart does leave the door open for further downside as the daily chart shows support all the way down to the 56.54 to 57.78 level, though the weekly chart is usually more dependable. Probabilities are about 50-50 this week for the short-term but dips below $60, and especially below $59 should now be used to purchase shares with at 56.44 stop loss and a $70-$71 upside objective. JD reported earnings and they were better than anticipated and the stock spiked up to recoup the 20% in value that it had lost the previous 2 weeks. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 31.45 is expected to be seen this week. The stock closed within $.26 cents of the high weekly close for the past 52 weeks at 31.55 (seen 4 weeks ago) and more importantly within $.12 cents of the 200-weekly MA, meaning that if another green close occurs next Friday, the line will be broken for the first time in 1-year. The recent 52-week intraweek high is at 32.38 that if broken will show open air above until the 35.56-38.00 level is reached. On another strong positive note, the previous week's low (prior to the earnings report) was 25.77 and when parred with the 25.48 low made 13 weeks ago, a double bottom has been created, which in turn with the positive earnings report has given the bulls strong ammunition with which to break out of the sideways trading range below the 200-week MA. Short term pivotal support will now be found at the $30 demilitarized zone. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls. MDT made a new all-time weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 103.04 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock did not make a new all-time intraweek high above 103.95 and if the bulls fail to do that this week and then the following week go below whatever low is made this week, a required and needed retest of the previous all-time intraweek high will occur. The same thing could be said about the weekly closing chart because if a red weekly close occurs next Friday, the possibility of a double top at 102.55/102.76 will open up. This stock was a bit of a gamble as a short this past week given that it has staunchly resisted selling at the time that the indexes were seeing strong selling interest. Nonetheless, if the indexes do what I anticipate they will do this week and the bulls fails to make a new all-time intraweek high and maintain it, the stage will be set for a strong round of profit taking occurring. Short-term pivotal support is found at 100.63 and stronger but longer term pivotal support is found at 98.43. This week is likely to be important, the same as with the index market. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. SRUTF made a new 5-month low and closed below the weekly close breakout point support at .3609 (closed at .347). This Canadian stock was also affected by the general malaise that affected the entire Cannabis industry this past week and if the failure signal is confirmed next Friday with another close below .3609, it will open the door for further downside to the .266 level. By the same token, this is not a company that is among those with a Goodwill loan/credit. It is a company that is trying to commercialize different ways to use Marijuana, such as in liquid or drinkable ways. As such and as long as Cannabis is not once again banned, the outlook for this company's future remains rosy. I bought this stock as a buy and hold and will remain holding it as I believe this Canadian problem will ultimately be on the rear-view mirror and this company could be one of the leaders in appreciation in price in the future. Intraweek resistance is found at .43 that if broken would bring in new buying interest. A weekly close next Friday above .3609 would negate this week's break. Probabilities favor the bears this week.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.185. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.57 (new price (55.72). 3) FSLR - Averaged long at 43.835. (2 mentions). No stop loss now at present. Stock closed on Friday at 61.69. 4) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .059. 5) AAPL - Shorted at 211.20. Averaged short at 197.54 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 206.20. 6) ENTG - Shorted at 42.59. Stop loss at 45.35. Stock closed on Friday at 42.26. 7) CVS - Liquidated at 58.68. Profit on the trade of $675 per 100 shares (3 mentions) minus commissions. 8) CPG - Liquidated at 3.17. Loss of $33 per 100 shares (3 mentions) plus commissions. 9) FNV - Purchased at 91.13. Averaged long at 88.205 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 89.65. Stock closed on Friday at 92.78. 10) BABA - Purchased at 155.81. Liquidated at 159.06. Profit of $325 per 100 shares minus commissions. 11) CRON - Averaged long at 14.033 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 13.11. 12) AU - Averaged long at 18.86 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 18.48. Stock closed on Friday at 21.04. 13) MDT - Shorted at 102.35. Stop loss at 104.35. Stock closed on Friday at 102.70. 14) JD - Purchased at 26.42. Stop loss at 25.38. Stock closed at 31.29.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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