Issue #628 ![]() Sep 1, 2019 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bears Fail to take Control. Yoyo Type Action Seen!
DOW Friday closing price - 26403
The indexes generated a green close week, the first in the past 5 weeks but there was no union-of-action among the indexes as the DOW did make a new 4-week high and possibly breaking the bearish inverted flag formation whereas the SPX only made a new 2-week high and only by 1 point and remains in the bearish flag formation and the NASDAQ had an inside week (no new high) and also stayed within the bearish flag formation. The dichotomy of action, especially with the DOW being the lead, is not a bullish statement as the DOW represents "safety" rather than bullish speculation. Nonetheless, all indexes closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs is expected to be seen this week (DOW at 26514, SPX at 2940 and NAZ at 8017) and if that occurs across the board and is confirmed, last week's action will be short-term bullish.
The only positive fundamental thing that occurred last week was the China announced they were not matching the most recent tariffs imposed by Trump and that did suggest that the trade war may be at least pausing. By the same token, it certainly was not a tangible sign that an end to the trade war may be on the horizon. The traders do maintain a general longer term bullishness to the market and use any non-negative news as a reason to buy. Whether this is the right approach or not is to be debated. Nonetheless, it is a factor on the resiliency that the market has shown over the past few weeks in spite of facts that show the economy is slowing down and being affected by the trade war.
There are several economic reports this week that will be a factor in the action, inasmuch as the ISM Manufacturing Index comes out on Tuesday morning, Factory Orders on Thursday and the Jobs report on Friday. The ISM Index is due to come at the same level as last month (51.3%) and once again near the 50% level that differentiates growth from to decline. Factory Orders is supposed to come in slightly higher at 1 (versus last month at .6%) and the Jobs report is also due slightly higher at 180k (versus last month at 164k). If those reports come out as expected, they are not likely to be catalysts but if surprising in one direction then it will give fuel to one side or the other, especially because of that chart importance of the levels presently being seen.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor to decent intraweek resistance between 26616 and 26695 and decent at 26995. The SPX shows decent resistance between 2940 and 2954 and the NASDAQ shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 8065 and then decent between 8133 and 8176.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows very minor support at 25958, and then minor but likely pivotal 25637. Below that, there is decent and short term pivotal at 25339. The SPX now shows very minor support at 2874 and then decent and likely short-term pivotal support between 2822 and 2825. The NASDAQ shows very minor support at 7833 and then minor at 7766. Below that, there is short term pivotal support at 7662 and then nothing until 7604.
The charts remain bearish as the SPX and the NASDAQ are still clearly in the bearish flag formation and though the DOW did break the flag, it only did it by a very small amount, meaning that if follow through to the upside is not seen this week, the flag could remain in place with only a slight change to it. The other chart negative is that the indexes all generated a gap opening on Thursday (DOW between 26041 and 26158, SPX between 2890 and 2905 and the NAZ between 7866 and 7914) but there was no tangible change of fundamentals that support such gaps, suggesting they will be magnets for closure until such a time that the fundamental picture changes.
The economic reports this week could certainly be catalysts but the probabilities do not favor that occurring given that it is unlikely they will be way out of line in either direction, In addition, the 2 main factors affecting the market at this time are interest rates and the trade war and those are not likely to be addressed this week. The trade war has a very low probability of being solved until after the next election in 14 months and the most likely Fed interest rate decision to further lower interest rates by 25 points has already fully been factored into the existing prices. In fact, there is a higher probability that their decision of September 18th will be seen negatively by the market than positively. As such, the bulls are fighting a war with very little ammunition and that means that it is unlikely to be won. Nonetheless, the ammunition the bulls do have is a desire to continue to buy a market that has given them profits for a record amount of years (10 years), and that suggests they will not stop buying dips until such a time that it is "proven" that buying dips is not working.
For this week and certainly if the economic reports do not come up with surprises, the inverted flag formation and gaps below will be the determining factors and that suggest a high probability of the bears being in control. If the SPX and the NASDAQ break their bearish flag formations and go above the decent resistances involved (SPX at 2954 and NAZ at 8176) then the bulls will be back in control and the all-time highs targeted. Evidently, the SPX is the index everyone will be watching this week as it is the index that is closest to all the resistance levels of consequence. The index closed on Friday at 2926 and the bottom of the flag is at 2943 and the decent intraweek resistance is at 2954. Until both of those levels are broken, the bears remains in control.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week given the lack of clear direction and the potential for trend changing fundamentals this week in the form of the 2 most important economic reports for the month being released this week. Without clear direction of the index market, traders will be wary of buying or selling any stock aggressively.
The same as last weekm there are several stocks I would be willing to re-purchase back if the stocks reach the desired entry point levels. ARNA below $50 (hopefully below $49) with a stop loss at 46.25, JD below 28.00 with a stop loss at 25.67 and FSLR below 58.00 with a stop loss at 56.44.
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Updates
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Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2019, as of 7/1 Profit of $8926 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for August per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
JP (long) $1161 BABA (short) $311
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.
CVS(long) $815 Total Profit for August, per 100 shares and after commissions $4008 Closed out losing trades for August per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
CLB (short) $319
CRON (long) $3 Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.
CPG (long) $70 Total Loss for August, per 100 shares, including commissions $409 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 8/31
FNV (long) $653
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
AU (long) $1138
FNV (long) $1083 AAPL (short) $860 Total $4731 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 8/31
COF (short) $267
ENTG (short) $45 MDT (long) $554 Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
ARNA (long) $390 Total $2353 Status of trades for month of August per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Profit of $5977
Status of account/portfolio for 2019, as of 8/31Profit of $14903 using 100 shares traded per mention.
AAPL broke the 4-point downtrend line (based on weekly closes) that started 53 weeks ago, having closed on Friday above the most recent high weekly close at 207.74. It was not a very convincing close as the stock still closed below the 11-month high weekly close at 211.75 and was trading below 207.74 just 5 minutes before the close and a 5 minute phase of action is not all that indicative, Nonetheless, it does mean that the bears have the onus on their shoulders this week because it is no longer about maintaining the downtrend but negating the break of it,. The stock does show pivotal intraweek resistance at 213.65 that if broken any day this week would be a clear signal of higher prices. By the same token, any daily close below 202.64 would suggest the bears will negate the break of the trendline next Friday and remain with the edge. Other than the rally in the indexes likely helping the bulls this week, the company announced that on September 10th they will be unveiling of the new IPhones that are expected to have some positive changes to them in order to continue to compete with Samsung. By the same token and given that the information about the new IPhones changes is already been anticipated, it may not be a positive catalyst unless something additional and not yet announced occurs. Evidently, the trade war and the index market remains as the main negative determinants but given that the company remains one of the most successful and respected companies in the market, the probabilities this week slightly favor the bulls.
ARNA generated a new 5-month weekly closing low in spite of the rally in the indexes and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 52.15 will be seen this week. The inability of the bulls to accomplish any positive action to the upside in spite of a rallying index market strongly suggests that further downside is still "in the books". Nonetheless and as mentioned the previous week, there is important support on a weekly closing basis at 50.93 and that is only $2 below last week's close, meaning that the stock is now likely to start seeing some indicative buying as the stock nears that level and even more so as the stock goes below that level on an intraweek basis. The 200-day MA, currently at 49.51, remains a strong magnet based on last week's action and is likely to be reached but also likely to generate strong buying interest. That level and all the way up to the top of the $50 demilitarized zone (at 50.30) has to be considered a buying area. Indicative intraweek support is found at 47.92 as that was the low see just prior to the beginning of the run up to 64.48 and as such, should not be broken, suggesting a stop loss at 47.62 can be used. I do expect another red weekly close next Friday and likely to be around the 50.93 level but thereafter a new uptrend should begin. AU generated yet another 6+-year green weekly close, the 2nd in a row since the weekly close resistance level at 21.91 got broken and the 5th in a row as far as green weekly closes are concerned. Nonetheless, for the first time in the last 3 weeks, the stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that either some profit taking is beginning to occur or the stock is reaching a level of resistance when selling interest is being seen. The stock did drop on Wednesday to test the weekly close breakout with a drop down to 21.94 and then generated a higher high and a green daily close on Friday, suggesting that 21.94 may now be a new intraweek support that if broken would suggest a mini correction is occurring. A stop loss at 21.65 can be considered, Nonetheless and on an intraweek basis, there is no resistance above until the $30-$31 level is reached but even then that resistance is more than 17 years old. There is however a 2-point trend line using previous highs over the past 5 years that connects around 25.85 and on a weekly closing basis, that may be the short-term objective. On a weekly closing basis, the previous high weekly close at 21.91 will now be support. BABA generated an uneventful inside week but did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 175.25 will be seen this week. The stock has been in a wide trading range between $160 and $180 and the action last week is not yet indicative that anything new is happening. The stock shows intraweek resistance at 178.80 and pivotal at the recent 16-week high at 179.88. To the downside, support is found at 163.83 and then nothing until 151.83. The stock remains in the bearish flag formation with 147.95 as the pivotal support of the flag. Based on the chart, there is a small possibility of the stock getting up to as high as 184.70 and still remain in a bearish flag. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. COF generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 21-week low and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 87.27 will be seen this week. Probably most importantly, it does make the previous weeks close at 83.11 into a probable successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 84.08. The stock does show daily close resistance at 86.97 that if broken would give a new buy signal and give the bulls new ammunition. By the same token, the bulls did trade on Friday above that level late in the day and were not able to generate the signal, suggesting they need additional help in the form of follow through to the upside in the index market. Like with the indexes, the stock generated a gap on Thursday between 84.86 and 85.55 and that gap will remain a magnet unless the bulls can generate an additional gap this week and the indexes break their bearish inverted flag formations. If all of that occurs, the first upside objective would be the $90 level. At this time, probabilities remain slightly in the side of the bears. CRON continued the recent downtrend, having made yet another multi-month intraweek and weekly closing low (6th in a row). The stock closed on the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 10.58 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, some life was seen this week as the stock reached the low of the week on Thursday and did stay above that level on Thursday and Friday, which is the first time seen in the last 12 trading days. Using the chart, there is no support below until the $10 level is reached so it must be assumed that without fundamental news, that is the objective. Nonetheless, there is decent support at the $10 demilitarized zone not only from previous intraweek lows and closes but also from the 100-week MA, currently at 10.28. There is pivotal intraweek support at 9.57 that should not get broken unless there is a fundamental problem to the stock or to the Cannabis industry (unlikely on both counts). To the upside, intraweek resistance will now be found at 12.00, at 13.00, at 13.95 and at 15.30. Probabilities now suggest the stock will trade between the $10 and $15 level for the next few months. Probabilities once again favor the bears this week. ENG generated the 3rd red weekly close in a row and below the minor weekly close support at 1.11 and the closing on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.04 will be seen this week. There is intraweek support found at 1.023 that if broken would suggest the psychological support at 1.00 will be seen. There is some very minor weekly close support at 1.40 and then minor to decent at the .99/1.00 level that at this time should not be broken on a weekly closing basis. The action seen has not been unexpected given that 6 weeks ago the stock got up to the 200-week MA at 1.16 and so far the bulls have not been strong enough to make the bullish statement that is likely to come in the not too distant future. For now and before another attempt at breaking that long term MA, it is likely that the bulls will need to retest and even strengthen the support at the $1 level. Intraweek support of consequence is found between .97 and 1.00 and short-term pivotal resistance is found at 1.18. Probabilities favor the stock trading in the range for the next 2-3 weeks. ENTG generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low and the closing green and above the previous week's high, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 43.54 will be seen this week. The stock remains in a bullish chart pattern that favors the bulls. Nonetheless, it has now been 4 weeks in a row where the all-time high at 45.12 (43.98 on a weekly closing basis) has not been broken or even seen a close retest and that leaves the door open for the bears to do something if and when the index market doesn't break out. It is likely that at least the all-time high weekly close at 43.98 will be seen this week and what happens there is likely to be indicative. Pivotal support is found at 39.86 that is broken would shift control to the bears. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. FNV generated yet another new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high this week with this one being the 5th new all-time high weekly close made in the past 7 weeks. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 99.14 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock is now fully into a strong psychological resistance at the $100 level and unless the index market continues higher and/or the Fed on September 18th does not lower interest rates, this area will be difficult to get above more than $3 above the $100 level. Minor but possibly short-term indicative support is now found at 96.08 and stronger and more pivotal at 90.12. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls. MDT increased its recent rally, having made a new all-time weekly closing high but on an intraweek basis, the stock generated an inside week though with a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 108.70 will be seen this week. Resistance is found at the all-time intraweek high at 109.70 and short term pivotal support is found at last week's low at 105.55. The idea of a spike high top has been put to rest based on last week's action so the traders will not be looking for either a continuation of the uptrend or a successful retest of the recent high and a mini correction to retest the previous all-time high weekly close at 102.55 or even perhaps as far down at the first all-time high weekly close 98.37 that is more important. As such, this week is taking on a bit of a short term pivotal scenario. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. SRUTF got down close to the important 10-month intraweek support at .266 with a drop down to .274. Nonetheless, some buying was seen at that level given that the stock rallied the last 2 days of the week and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .032 is expected to be seen this week. The bounce is not yet sufficient to negate the bear control as a daily close above .33 is needed for the bulls to gain even a very slight edge. Nonetheless, this was the first time in the last 14 trading days that anything green on the daily chart has been seen and suggests that it is possible the worst is over. Important intraweek support remains at .266 and minor resistance is found at .226 and then a bit stronger at .377. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.05. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.29 (new price (52.89). 3) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .052. 4) AAPL - Averaged short at 201.442 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 208.74. 5) ENTG - Averaged short at 42.605 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 45.35. Stock closed on Friday at 43.83. 6) FNV - Averaged long at 88.205 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 90.65. Stock closed on Friday at 97.66. 7) BABA - Shorted at 178.13. Stop loss at 180.35. Stock closed on Friday at 175.03. 8) CRON - Averaged long at 14.033 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 11.02. 9) AU - Averaged long at 18.86 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 21.81 on a weekly closing basis. Stock closed on Friday at 22.75. 10) MDT - Shorted at 102.35. Stop loss now at 110.35. Stock closed on Friday at 107.89. 11) COF - Shorted at 84.51 and at 86.08. Averaged short at 85.285 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday 86.62
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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