Issue #633
October 13, 2019
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Trade Agreement Made. Traders Waiting for Weekend Evaluation!

DOW Friday closing price - 26816
SPX Friday closing price - 2970
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 8057

It was another wild week in the index market with the DOW generating an 814 point trading range, the SPX of 101 points and the NASDAQ of 234 points, all of which represent moves that suggest uncertainty among the traders, especially when both red and green were seen throughout the week. Nonetheless, the indexes did generate a green weekly close and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting more upside is to come this week above last week's highs (DOW at 27013, SPX at 2903 and NAZ at 8115).

The news that brought about this week's rally was that a trade agreement between China and the U.S. occurred and the lack of a trade agreement was what had been causing the strong dips down seen the past few months. As such, it should be said that the obstacle for new highs has been removed and the uptrend is to continue. Nonetheless, that may not be the case given that the agreement was not all that was hoped for given that what was agreed to was mostly agricultural benefits (which could have been obtained easily a year ago) and the other stuff such as the existing tariffs, the intellectual property, and the sanctions that have been imposed on corporations were not removed and will not likely be removed. In addition, lots of damage and losses have already occurred over the past 15 months because of the trade war and none of those were addressed, other than agriculturally and even then, those losses will not be recouped in their entirety.

By the same token, the details of the trade agreement were not immediately clear before the market close on Friday and it remains unclear as of this writing as to how the traders will evaluate the trade agreement over the weekend. It is a boost for agricultural products and those stocks will likely benefit and open higher on Monday, but how much that will help the overall market is still a question right now.

The reality, based on the charts alone, is that the bulls did not accomplish much this week in spite of the rally and knowledge that a trade agreement had been done, which was announced around midday on Friday. The bulls did not break any resistance levels of long term importance (only short term levels were broken) and in the end and based on the charts alone, the bears remain with the edge. The DOW closed only 1% above last week's close, the SPX only .3% above last weeks' close and the NASDAQ only 1.5% above last week's close and that is not convincing enough given that the main ammunition the bulls have had was the trade war.

As such and considering the old stock market adage about "buy the anticipation and sell the fact", this coming week is likely to be the most pivotal week of the year as the economic and news schedule for the rest of the year does not have anything as catalytic as this trade agreement was. In less than 3 weeks the Fed is to announce their rate decision and it presently is 86% projected to be a rate cut, meaning that such a cut is already mostly factored in to the present price. On a possible negative note, there are good enough reasons to believe that there are more things that could go wrong (than right) the rest of the year, starting with the fact that a trade deal was done and nothing further is likely to happen but China could still renege as they have done before, that the Fed may cut rates at the end of the month (already factored in) but likely no more and a potential for it not happening and lastingly that the Manufacturing sector was not addressed with this agreement and manufacturing is heading south. Trump will be meeting with Xi at the G20 meeting in November 20th but it is highly unlikely Xi will give more than was already given this past week, especially when it is considered he got the best of the deal. As such, the bulls are not likely to have any additional reasons to rally than what they have this coming week. If they cannot make new all-time highs this week, it is not likely they will be able to do so the rest of the year.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at the 27,000 demilitarized zone (26970-27030), and then decent at 27317 and strong at the all-time high at 27398. The SPX shows minor resistance at 3007, decent resistance at the double high at 3020, and strong at the all-time high at 3028. The NASDAQ now shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 8133 and again at 8176, decent at 8243 and strong at the all-time high at 8339.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor but likely short term pivotal support at 26139. Below that, there is general support at the 26,000 demilitarized zone and strongly pivotal at previous week's low at 25743. The SPX shows minor but short term pivotal support at 2892 and then strongly pivotal at 2855. The b>NASDAQ shows minor but short term pivotal support at 7821 and then strongly pivotal at 7700.

All indexes gapped up on Friday (breakaway gap) when the trade agreement was likely to be announced (DOW between 26603 and 26694, SPX between 2948 and 2963, and NAZ between 7982 and 8046)). If the trade agreement that was announced on Friday (details announced after the market close) is seen by the traders as a strong positive, a runaway gap will occur on Monday. Such action would likely to give the bulls the ammunition they need to attempt new all-time highs. If such a runaway gap does "not" occur on Monday (or does occur but then is closed during the day), it will be seen as a a sign that the bulls will not be able to accomplish new highs and that would bring in the bears in a big way with closure of the breakaway gap as the first objective the then likely the beginning of a downtrend when the supports below are broken.

It is rare that 1 single day can be so indicative but this Monday does fit all the parameters of being such a day. Gap up without closure and a close on the highs of the day = high probability of new all-time highs made. No gap or closure of the gap by the end of the day = strong ammunition for the bears.

Probabilities slight favor the bulls but then again this is a fundamental decision and that is not my base of expertise.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

The trade agreement made on Friday does now open the door for the traders to make fundamental evaluations as to what the indexes will do the rest of the year. What would then follow would be strong amount of chart trading given that the probabilities of the fundamentals changing the rest of the year would diminish greatly. Nonetheless, as of this writing I have no clear idea as to how the trade agreement will be viewed fundamentally by the traders over the weekend, meaning I have no new mentions at this time. Nonetheless and as explained above, Monday is likely to be a highly indicative day and as such, by Monday's close or an hour or two before, chart decisions can start to be made (if not made on the opening bell) and at that time I will have some mentions.

Evidently, one of the mentions I will have (if and when the fundamental outlook is not all bullish at the opening on Monday) is the same one I had last week, which was to short COF using a stop loss at 92.36 and having an $80 objective. Nonetheless, I did not even bother to look for other possible trades this weekend because without a clear direction of the overall market, spending the time and effort to come up with a trade that "may" have no validity 24 hours later is a waste of time. By the same token, over the past few weeks I have been looking at charts, both for potential sales or purchases and already have a list in mind as to what to buy or sell depending on what the fundamental traders decide this weekend will be the outlook for the market based on the trade agreement. One stock that I have been on the verge of buying over the last week has been FSLR and that would be my first pick for a purchase if the outlook is to be bullish. I will know more on Monday and let you know.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA made a new 2-week high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 48.21 will be seen this week. This is not a stock that is all that sensitive to the overall market, so there is a bit of general confidence that the stock is on its way to at least test the weekly close breakdown point at 50.93, whether the indexes head higher or not. On a daily closing basis, support is no minor to decent at 45.94. A daily close below that level will negate the positive rally seen this past week. There is no intraweek resistance until minor to perhaps decent resistance is found at 49.54. The probabilities favor the bulls this week.

AU is going to be closely tied to whatever the indexes do. A rally in the indexes will likely generate a drop in gold and the stock and vice-versa. Support is found at 18.56 and pivotal at 18.04. To the upside, resistance is slightly pivotal at 21.26 and likely pivotal at 21.50. By the same token, further resistance is found at 21.76 and 21.91. A break above all four would mean the recent multi-year high at 23.85 would be tested and likely broken. Pivotal week ahead.

CRON has now reached an important and pivotal area of weekly close support at 7.78, having closed on Friday at 7.84. On an intraweek basis though, the support is found at 6.50 and given that the stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 7.70 is expected to be seen, it is possible the traders will take the stock down to 6.50 before some buying interest of consequence is found. On a daily closing basis, the same important and pivotal support (as the weekly one) is found at 6.80, so there could be additional weakness throughout the week until Friday comes around. I do not believe that the Cannabis industry has totally turned negative, so I have to believe this is likely to be the last thrust down before the stock turns around. As it is, if the stock gets down to 6.50, a drop of 58% will have occurred over the past 11 weeks and a drop of 75% from the all-time high at 25.10 seen in February. The company itself has not shown any fundamental weakness other than what is happening to the Cannabis market. A 75% drop in what could be one of the strongest industries of the future, seems to be highly overdone. Nonetheless, a weekly close below 7.78 or a daily close below 6.80 will be another sign that the market is not ready to go up anytime soon. Pivotal resistance is now found at 9.44, that if broken would signal the worst is over. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

DD generated a new 32-month intraweek low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 62.87 will be seen. This negative week occurred "in spite of" the stock indexes rallying, suggesting that this stock that is sensitive to the index market may be seeing some personal negative fundamentals. The stock did break a weekly close support at 66.00 and came close to the 32-month weekly closing low at 64.60 that was made in May, suggesting that unless the index market makes new all-time highs that the stock will continue lower toward the $60 level where stronger weekly close support is found. Downside objective is the $56-$60 level that if reached, consideration should be given for taking profits. To the upside, any rally above 68.39 would suggest covering of the shorts should be considered. Probabilities favor the bears.

DIS generated an inside week given that the recent down move was postponed temporarily with the index rally. Evidently, this is a stock where the indexes do have some effect, meaning that the stock will either rally if the indexes rally or drop if they don't The first downside objective of reaching the 200-week MA, currently at 127.56, has been accomplished with at 127.54 low seen 7 trading days ago and if the indexes rally this week, that may be sufficient to give some ammunition to the bulls, if and when they can generate a daily close above 131.34 for 2 days in a row. On the other hand, if the indexes do not rally, the probabilities of the MA being broken and the stock heading down to test the previous all-time high daily close at 118.90 will increase strongly. Either way, the chart parameters are clear with 131.34 being daily close resistance and 127.56 being support. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls as the company has been heading lower fundamentally.

ENG generated an uneventful inside week but did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 1.06 than below last week's low at .956. Either way, the levels that are important right now are 1.10 and .90, meaning that whichever gets broken first will be indicative of direction. Stock is not index sensitive so whatever the market does is not likely to affect the stock. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FNV, like with AU, is sensitive to what the indexes do, meaning that as of this writing there is no indication of direction. The stock has been trading between 89.42 and 96.92 for the past 5 weeks and evidently a break of either would be indicative. Downside objective if the support level is broken would be 85.72 and if the resistance level is broken, it would be the recent high at 101.19 with the probabilities favor a new all-time high being made. Much will be known on Monday. For now, the probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

MDT bulls were unable to follow through on the previous week's positive reversal week, having made a new 7-week intraweek low but then rallying to close in the upper half of the week's trading range but still closing red, strongly suggesting the stock will follow the index market this week. Generally speaking and without the index market being in the conversation, the stock should go above last week's high at 108.74 as the all-time high at 112.05 has not yet seen a retest of it and no negative fundamental news has come out that would prevent that from happening. Nonetheless, if the indexes do not head higher on Monday, the bears are likely to continue to push lower as the downside objective remains the previous all-time weekly closing high at 99.38. There is daily close resistance at 108.62 that if broken would almost guarantee a retest of the all-time high would occur, if not a new all-time high. A daily close below 105.94 would again weaken the chart while a close below 105.02 would give a new sell signal. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

SRUTF made another new 10-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .26 will be seen this week. There is some intraweek support at .25 and weekly close support at .26 and like with CRON, the stock is reaching a level of support that should not be broken unless the Cannabis industry is no longer a viable investment vehicle for the short-term. A daily close below .255 would further weaken the chart. A daily close above .288 would ease some of the sell pressure and a close above .304 would negate the break. The probabilities continue to favor the bears but the level of support below is important and pivotal and not likely to be broken at this time.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.02.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.71 (new price (47.16).

3) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0405.

4) COF - Shorted at 87.54. Covered shorts at 88.51. Loss on the trade of $97 per 100 shares plus commissions.

5) DIS - Shorted at 131.59. Averaged short at 134.42 (2 mentions) No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 130.02.

6) FNV - Averaged long at 90.15 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 92.55.

7) CRON - Averaged long at 12.80 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.84.

8) AU - Averaged long at 19.205 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.58.

9) MDT - Shorted at 102.35. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 107.58.

10) ARNA - Averaged long at 48.36 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 47.16.

11) DD - Shorted at 71.56. Stop loss at 73.87. Stock closed on Friday at 65.16.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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