Issue #632 ![]() Sep 22, 2019 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Mixed Economic Reports Week. Traders Uncertain!
DOW Friday closing price - 26573
It was a wild week in the index market with the DOW generating a trading range of 1303 points, the SPX of 137 points and the NASDAQ of 362 points, all of which represent moves in excess of 4% (considered unusual and rare). In addition, the weekly closes were mixed with the DOW and SPX closing red and the NAZ closing green. It was supposed to be a week of decision but it turned out to be "more of the same" uncertainty.
The market was hit this past week with conflicting reports about the economy. The manufacturing index and factory orders both came in lower than expected and caused a strong sell off to occur that made the indexes all go down (or near) to the 200-day MA's, which is a line that had not been seen since August and in the case of the NASDAQ since June. Nonetheless, on Friday the Jobs report came in mostly better than expected with less unemployment and more hiring than expected and given that the 200-day MA's are always levels where automatic chart buying occurs, the indexes rallied to close in the upper half of the week's trading range and in the case of the NASDAQ, a green weekly close. Lower manufacturing and production but better unemployment was not something the traders were prepared for and the action reflected that uncertainty.
Several strong negative signs were brought about when the ISM Index report (manufacturing) came out as it was the 2nd month in a row of numbers showing contraction and since 1980 there have been 7 other occasions where that occurred and on 5 of those occasions, a recession followed. Nonetheless, the Jobs report did not confirm those fears and now the traders are going to have to wait to see what comes next before they can make any longer term decisions. Certainly, the big interest will be on what the Fed is going to decide on the 30th of the month, given that the economy shrinking would suggest lower interest rates but lower unemployment and better pay would not. As of the close on Friday, there is a 76% chance the Fed will lower interest rates more. That number suggests a slightly higher probability of helping the bears and not the bulls because a higher chance of a rate cut is already anticipated and built into the prices being seen now.
As far as the chart is concerned, the strongly bearish "island" formation that was created after the ISM index came out was negated on Friday after the Jobs report came out, meaning that strong ammunition was withdrawn from the coffers of the bears but then that ammunition was not transferred to the bulls given that the indexes are still showing a confirmed successful retest of the all-time highs and the weekly closes on Friday were still red for the DOW and the SPX, meaning the recent correction continues based on the weekly closes.
Nonetheless, the indexes all closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's highs is the most probable cause of action this coming week (DOW above 27046, SPX above 2992 and NASDAQ above 8062). That will not be an easy task for the DOW and the SPX as they show decent resistance at 26951 and at 2954-2964, meaning that an inside week could occur. The NASDAQ though, does not show any resistance of consequence until 8133, suggesting that it will once again be the leader this coming week as it was this past week.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 26995 and then minor at 26907 and decent at 26951. The SPX now shows minor to perhaps decent resistance between 2954 and 2964 and then nothing until minor at 2992, minor to decent at 3007, and decent to perhaps strong at the double high at 3020. The NASDAQ now shows minor to perhaps decent resistance between 8062 and 8065, and then decent at 8176.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor support at the 26,000 demilitarized zone and pivotal at last week's low at 25743. The SPX shows minor support at 2912 and at 2891 and decent as well as pivotal at last week's low at 2855. The b>NASDAQ shows minor support at 7879, a bit stronger at 777730 and pivotal at last week's low at 7700.
All indexes gapped up on Friday off of the Jobs report but given that the ISM index report was very negative, these gaps should be closed this week. In the DOW that gap is between 26205 and 26271, in the SPX it is between 2911 and 2918 and in the NASDAQ it is between 7872 and 7889. This coming week the only economic reports of any consequence are PPI and CPI and those are not likely to be catalytic in any way, meaning the week is likely to be all chart oriented with uneventful action in either direction. By the same token, there is one event this week that could be catalytic given that China and the U.S, are due to meet on October 10th (Thursday) for a presumed resumption of trade talks between the 2 nations. Any news that comes out of that meeting (if any news is announced other than another meeting for a future date) will likely move the market in one direction of the other. As such, the first 3-4 days of the week are likely to be back and forth between resistance and closure of the gaps, but then late Thursday or Friday could have movement of consequence.
As such, the probabilities as of this writing is for back and forth action within the trading ranges of last week (with the exception of the NASDAQ) with traders waiting for news regarding the trade talks.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions at this time but do expect that before the end of the week, I will have new mentions (likely sales) that will be given on the message board. One thing I will be looking to do is re-short COF. The stock did generate a positive reversal this past week and has a gap to fill above, much like the indexes did on Friday and that will be a magnet for the bulls this week. Nonetheless, the gap is at 88.97 and there is some minor resistance at 89.54 and stronger at 91.54 and the probabilities of both being broken is low. Stop loss would be 92.36 and downside objective remains the $80 level, meaning that a short around 89.54 would offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio and a sale around 91.54 a 12-1 risk/reward ratio. As such, the only decision to be made this week is where to short the stock. I should know more by Tuesday.
Last week generated more confusion than clarity and is the only reason I have no new mentions. Nonetheless, the overriding and longer term outlook is for downward movement with the only question this week is how much the bulls can accomplish on a short-term basis to the upside. This morning on MSNBC they were talking about Friday's Jobs report and the analysts talking were saying that even though on the surface the Jobs report was supportive to the bulls, under careful evaluation, it was actually bearish longer term. As such and if the traders evaluate it the same way this weekend, it is possible that Friday's rally was a 1-day event and that the downtrend will resume on Monday (no rally above last week's high). It will be interesting to see how the market opens on Monday.
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Updates
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Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2019, as of 9/1 Profit of $14903 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for September per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
AAPL (short) $65
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. BABA(short) $207 Total Profit for Seotember, per 100 shares and after commissions $272 Closed out losing trades for September per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
ARNA (long) $109
Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.
AAPL (short) $687 Total Loss for September, per 100 shares, including commissions $1321 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 9/30
DIS (short) $777
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
NONE
Total $1139 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 9/30
FNV (long) $183
AU (long) $256 ARNA (long) $777 Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
ARNA (long) $213 Total $5416 Status of trades for month of September per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Loss of $5326
Status of account/portfolio for 2019, as of 9/30Profit of $9487 using 100 shares traded per mention.
ARNA generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 23-week low and then closing green and on the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 46.87 will be seen this week. The stock got down close to the 44.10 support level with a low this past week at 44.31, meaning there is no room to the downside without some chart damage made. Short term pivotal resistance is found at last week's high. Above that level, there is no resistance until minor at 48.00 and minor to perhaps decent at 49.54. The objective of any upside rally at this moment is a retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 50.67. Probabilities favor the bulls.
AU generated a positive reversal week, having broken support and making a new 9-week low but then turning around to close green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 20.24 will be seen this week. The action mirrored Gold that also made a multi-week low but then turned around to negate the break of the neckline of the bearish H&S formation and close above a pivotal support at $1499. Pivotal resistance is found at 21.16 that if broken would likely generate a rally to at least 21.91. Support is now found at 18.81 and stronger at 18.51. Fundamental outlook based on the economic reports this week does support the bull side for at least a rally to 21.91. CRON generated the 10th red weekly close out of the last 11 weeks and made a new 11-month low. Nonetheless, there was some buying interest seen this week, given that the stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 9.44 than below last week's low at 8.40. The bulls had the opportunity to generate a positive reversal with a close above last week's close at 9.15 as the stock did trade above that level on Friday. Evidently though, there is not yet enough buying interest so that the bulls can make at least a small statement that a bottom to this correction has been found. Nonetheless, this was the first time in the last 4 weeks that the bulls were able to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that at least the selling interest has ebbed. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 9.97 and as stated last week, intraweek support is found at $8 and pivotal on a weekly closing basis at 7.78. Probabilities favor a slight bias to the upside this week but no statements made, either to the upside or downside. DD generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high but then closing below the previous week's low and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 65.71 will be seen this week. The stock is in an area of the chart with some room to both the upside and the downside without triggering an indicative break, with daily close support at 67.24 and daily close resistance at 71.31. The probabilities do slightly favor the bears this week but it could be a wide trading range with both red and green seen throughout the week. At this time, there is no clear outlook on direction for the midterm but the stock remains below the 200-day MA, currently at 73.87, meaning the bears still have the edge. Any weekly close below 66.00 would strongly give the nod to the bears. DIS generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5+-month low and then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 131.78 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the positive reversal week was not convincing given that the break of decent and pivotal support on both the daily and weekly closing charts at 131.34 and 131.67 (respectively) was confirmed (not negated), suggesting that the bears remain in control even though this coming week will generate some green and upward movement. Minor intraweek resistance is found at last week's high at 131.78 and then again at 134.15. On a daily closing basis, resistance is pivotal at 131.34. As such, probabilities still favor the bears, especially because the 200-day MA, currently at 126.95 still beckons strongly. Evidently, if the bulls fail to go above last week's high, it will be a strong sign of weakness. Support is found at last week's low at 127.54. Below that level and on an intraweek basis, there is no support until $120, meaning that if the MA line is broken on a daily closing basis, the stock could fall an additional 8% off of Friday's closing price. ENG generated an indicative rally and green weekly close that makes last week's close at .98 into a successful retest of the $1 level. Such a retest of an important chart and psychological level suggests new buying interest will now be seen. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 1.10 is expected to be seen. The 1.10 level on a daily closing basis is pivotal. There are already 3 daily high closes at that level and a confirmed close above 1.10 opens the door for a rally to test the 14-month high daily close at 1.23 that was made on August 19th. The action and chart picture suggests the correction is over and that the upside will now be explored by the traders. On an intraweek basis, the .90 level is now pivotal support. Probabilities favor the bulls. FNV generated an uneventful week having closed between the most recent high and low weekly closes at 94.83 and 92.63. Nonetheless, this is slightly more beneficial to the bulls than the bears given that recently the bears have had the edge and this past week they lost it. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 94.52 is expected to be seen this week. If that occurs, it will make last week's low at 90.09 into a required/needed successful retest of the 9-week low at 89.46 seen the previous week. If that occurs and a break above 94.83 happens as well, the probabilities of the uptrend resuming will increase strongly. Evidently, a break below last week's low at 90.09 would now be a negative statement. Probabilities favor the bulls. MDT generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 6-week low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 109.70 will be seen this week. The stock is mimicking what the indexes are doing, especially with the unsupported gap between 107.26 and 107.38 that was made on Friday, which in turn suggests the stock will do what the indexes do (see above). A rally above last week's high could end up being the required/needed retest of the all-time high made the previous week at 112.05. If that does occur, the bears will climb aboard with the $100 level as the primary objective. Last week's low at 105.24 is now pivotal resistance that if broken, would be a strong short-term negative sign. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week SRUTF made a new 10-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .272 will be seen this week. The action over the past 5 weeks has been extremely limited and range bound but this new low does open the door for further downside with no support found until .237 is reached. A daily close above .288 would ease some of the sell pressure and a close above .304 would negate the break but at this time, the bears are in control.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.05. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.59 (new price (45.93). 3) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0345. 4) AAPL - Covered shorts at 222.59. Shorted at 223.38. Profit on the trade of $79 per 100 shares minus commissions. 5) DIS - Shorted at 131.59. Averaged short at 134.42 (2 mentions) No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 130.27. 6) SNAP - Covered shorts at 14.34. Averaged short at 17.48. Profit on the trade of $628 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions. 7) FNV - Averaged long at 90.15 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 94.44. 8) CRON - Purchased at 9.07. Averaged long at 12.80 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.01. 9) AU - Averaged long at 19.205 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.18. 10) MDT - Shorted at 102.35. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 108.56. 11) COF - Covered shorts at 87.22. Averaged short at 85.285. Loss on the trade of $387 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions. 12) ARNA - Averaged long at 48.36 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 45.93. 13) DD - Shorted at 71.56. Stop loss at 73.87. Stock closed on Friday at 68.15. 14) AAPL - Shorted at 226.03. Covered shorts at 226.52. Loss on the trade of $49 per 100 shares plus commissions.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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