Issue #630 ![]() Sep 15, 2019 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bulls Seemingly in Control, but is it Tangible?
DOW Friday closing price - 27219
The bulls continued to be in control, having made new 7-week highs and above all resistance levels, other than the previous all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs (DOW at 27398/27332k, SPX at 3028/3026 and NASDAQ at 8339/8330). The DOW and the NASDAQ broke above the previous all-time highs (which were considered decent resistance) and now this week it is all "swim or sink" as the bulls are committed to making new all-time highs or a successful retest of the previous all-time highs (that could also be considered a potential double top) would occur, which in effect would be a chart situation that would not support further continuation of the 10-year uptrend.
The indexes all closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 27306, SPX at 3020, and NASDAQ at 8243) is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the fact that the bulls were not able to accomplish new all-time highs last week in spite of momentum being on their side, suggests they need further positive news this week and that is a tall order given that there are no meetings between China and the U.S. this week and the Fed rate decision that comes out on Wednesday afternoon is likely to come out exactly as expected (a 25 point rate cut), meaning that it is unlikely any positive catalysts will be seen. The only thing that could give the bulls some ammunition would be a 50 point cut and the probabilities of that happening are extremely low. Even if that happens, the indexes may sell off anyhow as no further rate cuts would then be expected. In addition, growth for the rest of the year is expected to be lower given the trade war has already caused irreparable damage. This opens the door for this week being strongly pivotal and it all coming down to Wednesday afternoon. This does suggest that Monday and Tuesday more of the same as seen at the end of last week will occur (slight bias to the upside without any breaks of resistance occurring).
The fundamental facts in place at this moment actually favor the bears for the simple reason that 1) resolution of the trade war is not likely to happen until a new administration is in place. 2) The economy remains positive but slowing down (not supporting new highs). 3) Economic statistics remain positive enough as to not give the Fed strong reasons to ease much more at this time. 4) Indexes have rallied over 7% in the past 7 weeks without any tangible catalyst. 5) Indexes are now overbought. These factors are not supportive of new all-time highs being made at this time. On a chart basis, the opposite is true (charts favor the bulls). The indexes are less than 1% below the previous all-time highs and momentum is on their side. In addition and over the past 18 months there have been 2 other occasions where the bulls were committed to making new all-time highs and on both occasions they were successful. Last but not least, this a record bull run as it has been a bull market for 10 years (average is 5 years) and never before has the market been bull for so long. This suggests that traders are saying "I am a buyer until it is proven that the bull-run is over" and that will mean the onus of proof is on the shoulders of the bears. By the same token, there are 2 factors in play right now that are catalytic and those are the Trade War and the Interest Rate Scenario and one of them will have star-billing this week.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the all-time highs are resistance across the board with the DOW at 27398, the SPX at 3028 and the NASDAQ at 8339.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, last week's lows are now short-term pivotal support with the DOW being at 26717, the SPX at 2957 and the b>NASDAQ at 8001.
It is now decision week and the parameters are clearly defined with the all-time highs as resistance and last week's lows as pivotal support. In the DOW those 2 levels are at 27398 and 26717, in the SPX those are at 3028 and 2957 and in the NASDAQ those are at 8339 and at 8001. One or the other are likely to be broken this week. Keep in mind that last week's lows represent the breakaway and runaway gaps that were built the previous week and a break of those will bring a lot of additional computer-type selling, not to mention the fact that the indexes have not had a lower-than-the-previous-week-low for over 1 month and "any" weakness at this time will cause the bears to jump in, in a big way.
As stated above, charts favor the bulls but fundamentals favor the bears and given that fundamentals are usually the decision makers, I would say the probabilities favor the bears this week, unless of course the fundamentals change.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
This is a decision week in the market as on Wednesday the Fed will report the interest rate decision. Based on the fact that the bulls have been unable to make new all-time highs though committed to do so chart-wise, the probabilities favor short positions. Nonetheless, short positions recently have all been losers and in some case "big losers" and as such, there is a reluctance on my part to keep on expecting the market to head lower.
What I did this weekend is find 2 stocks that have not participated fully in the rally and continue to be on a long-term downtrend but have recently generated a bounce rally to levels of resistance that are pivotal. As such, these 2 stocks offer a bit higher probabilities of heading lower if there is no fundamentally bullish news this week. If everything comes out "as expected", the chart picture of these 2 stocks continues to favor the bears.
F Friday Closing Price - 9.45
F is the Ford company and the stock has been on a downtrend since July 2014 from a price of 18.08. In December of last year, the stock made a 9-year low at 7.41 and then proceeded to bounce back up to 10.50 over a period of 5 months. The stock then fell back to test the low with a drop down to 9.32 and then rallied back up again to make a high 10.56 (just 6 points above the previous high) but the bulls were unable to generate any follow through and 6 weeks ago the 9.32 low was broken (got down to 8.70), suggesting the bounce was just a bounce and not a true recovery. Over the past 3 weeks and with the help of the index market, the stock has rallied back up to 9.65 and on Friday closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting some follow through to the upside will be seen this week, above 9.65.
Nonetheless, there is established intraweek resistance between 9.85 and up to 10.09 and the $10 demilitarized zone is always considered decent psychological resistance, meaning that unless the bulls are able to make new all-time highs this week, the stock is likely to head back down to the 9-year low at 7.41 and likely break to head down to the 6.00-6.50 level where decent support was built back in 2002-2007.
To the upside, F now shows a double high at 10.50/10.56 that if broken would suggest further upside to the 200-week MA, currently at 11.26, would occur. It is a trade that has a good risk/reward ratio and a decent probability rating due to the problems the company has had (and continues to have) on a fundamental basis.
Sales of F between 9.70 and 10.30 and using a stop loss at 10.60 and having a 6.50 objective offers a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
SNAP Friday Closing Price - 16.00
SNAP is a social media communications company that started trading in February 2017 at 29.44 and then proceeded to head down to make a low 4.82 22 months later. The stock has been on a rally over the past 9 months, having recovered back up to 18.36, but 8 weeks ago (when that high was made) the stock ran into a brick wall and 5 red closes have been seen over the past 7 weeks and no further appreciation seen.
It is important to note that in January of last year, SNAP generated a 38% recovery rally up from 13.15 to 21.22 only to resume the downtrend to make new all-time low in December. On this occasion, the rally has recovered 74% of what was lost but it has made the 21.22 level into a strong and pivotal resistance level that will likely require positive fundamental news to break.
SNAP had a big $2 trading range last week, having made a new 7-week low but then closing near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 16.63 will be seen this week. The recent high at 18.36 has not yet had a successful retest, suggesting that if the stock does go above last week's high this week that it will be the required/needed retest. Given that the 18.36 is now seen as the second successful retest of the all-time high at 29.44, it does suggest that if broken, the stock will continue higher but if not broken, a drop back down toward the all-time low at 4.82 will occur, given that only one retest of that low has been seen and it was a minor one with a drop down to 10.04 seen. At the very least and if the retest of the recent high occurs, a retest of the level, which also represents a magnetized psychological support will be seen.
It must be mentioned that compared to Face Book, Instagram and Twitter, SNAP is 2nd rate and is among a total of 65 social media sites, meaning that fundamentally there is little that the company can do to stand out.
Sales of SNAP between 16.40 and 17.40 and using a stop loss at 18.46 and having at least a $10 objective will offer a minimum of 3-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
As mentioned for the past 2 weeks, there are several stocks I would be willing to re-purchase back if a pullback is seen. Those are JD below 28.00 with a stop loss at 25.67 and FSLR below 58.00 with a stop loss at 56.44.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA generated a new 5-month intraweek and weekly closing low but did reach the important 200-day line, currently at 50.10, with a low last week at 49.18 and a bounce thereafter that took the stock above the previous week's high. The stock did close red and slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below that low will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the more important previous multi-year weekly closing high is at 50.93 and if a green close occurs this Friday, a successful retest of that breakout level will have occurred, which in turn would highly likely give new ammunition to the bulls for a rally and an end to this recent downtrend. As such, a drop below last week's low is improbable this week. A drop down to the $50 demilitarized zone and a retest of the MA line is highly probable but even though the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, it is unlikely that new lows to this downtrend will be seen, though if it happens would not necessarily be a negative. Pivotal resistance is now found at last week's high at 53.95 that is broken would open the door for a rally to 58.00 which is where resistance is found. Probabilities favor the bulls. AU generated another spike-down drop and a red close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 18.81 will be seen this week. The stock has now fallen 21.2% from the high and if the bull outlook is to remain, the bulls are required to generate a green close above 19.08 next Friday or the 20+% drop from the high will do some lasting damage. The stock shows intraweek support at 18.58 that should not be broken unless the trend has begun to change back to a bear one. Gold was also weak last week and did close slightly below the pivotal $1500 level (closed at $1496) but the bears were not able to break the intraweek support at $1488, suggesting that level will be seen this week but not broken. This correction was expected to happen at some point as the stock had previously rallied 53% in value without any correction. Nonetheless, this is the area the bulls need to defend, making this coming week pivotal. Below 18.58 there is further support at 16.82 that is stronger and more important. Nonetheless, a break below 18.58 would suggest the recent high at 23.85 is a resistance that is unlikely to be broken in the short-to-mid term. As such, it is indicative in that way. Intraweek resistance is now found at last week's high at 21.26. That level is unlikely to be broken this coming week but if a green weekly close is seen next Friday, the following week a rally to that level would likely be seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. COF made a new 4-week high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 88.90 will be seen this week. More importantly, the stock has established itself above the 200-day MA, currently at 85.75, having closed above that line on both Thursday and Friday. Nonetheless, the chart is not yet all rosy for the bulls given that Friday's rally was a spike up with a close on the high of the week and Friday there was no follow through, having had an inside day and a red close on the low of the day. In addition, the stock is showing an open gap between 86.47 and 86.82 that is not supported with news and likely to be closed before any further upside will occur. Nonetheless, the chart suggests that the bulls now have the edge and other than minor resistance found at 89.47, there is no resistance of any consequence until 91.60, meaning that if the gap is closed, careful consideration should be given to covering the short positions and taking the small loss, unless some unexpected weakness is seen in the index market. Intraweek support is found between 85.36 and 85.72 that includes the 200-day MA. If that support is broken, a new evaluation can be made. At this time, covering of the shorts should be made if that area is reached. CRON generated an uneventful inside week and a close in the middle of the week's trading range, giving no clear clue as to what to expect this week. Nontheless, the stock did close on the high of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside and given that the recent weekly closing low at 11.02 is now an established low (2 weeks in a row closing above that level), the probabilities slightly favor the bulls. Pivotal resistance is found at 12.41 and pivotal support at 10.58. There is an open gap between 12.87 and 13.07 that is likely to be targeted this week with the question being whether the gap will be closed or not. Closure of the gap would be a positive while the opposite is also true. A weekly close above 14.08 would erase all the weakness seen the past 7 weeks but is unlike to occur at this time, meaning that the possibilities suggest the stock might be in a trading range between $11 and $13 for the next 3-6 week. Important support remains at the $10 demilitarized zone. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but only as far as a rally to the 12.90 level. ENG has been idling for the past 2 weeks and doing nothing. There was no follow through after last week's green close and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting the traders are waiting for direction (perhaps from the overall market). Nonetheless, the stock remains in a short-term bullish pattern and as long as the $1 level is not broken on a weekly closing basis, probabilities favor the bulls. There is some very minor weekly close support at 1.04 and then minor to decent at the .99/1.00 level that at this time should not be broken on a weekly closing basis. The action seen has not been unexpected given that 6 weeks ago the stock got up to the 200-week MA at 1.16 and so far the bulls have not been strong enough to make the bullish statement that is likely to come in the not too distant future. For now and before another attempt at breaking that long term MA, it is likely that the bulls will need to retest and even strengthen the support at the $1 level. Intraweek support of consequence is found between .97 and 1.00 and short-term pivotal resistance is found at 1.18. Probabilities favor the stock trading in the range for the next 2-3 weeks. FNV generated a sell signal on the daily closing chart, having closed below the most recent and established low daily close at 92.27. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 89.46 is expected to be seen this week. The stock has now corrected 12% from the recent high at 101.19 but that is after a 46% rally seen over a 5 month period between April and September. Nonetheless, the weakness seen has opened the door for further downside with the previous all-time weekly closing high at 84.45 as a potential objective. There is intraweek support at 85.44 that has a high probability of holding up. Pivotal resistance is now found at 96.49 that if broken would negate the correction. Gold is the main factor for the stock and Gold is at an important support area at $1488. If gold holds up, the stock is likely to do the same. Probabilities favor the bears. MDT generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then making a new intraweek and weekly closing high. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 111.24 is expected to be seen. In addition, the stock broke out of a bullish flag formation that offers an upside objective of 114.62 to be reached by Tuesday, if an when the bull flag is respected. On a possible negative note, the stock generated a red day on Friday and a close near the low of the day, suggesting the first course of business for the week is likely to be to the downside below Friday's low at 109.30 and if the bears can accomplish a daily close below 108.69 (previous all-time high daily close), the bullish flag will be negated. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls. SRUTF generated a negative reversal week, having gone above last week's high and then closing below last week's low, suggesting further downside and continuation of the downtrend is the most probable scenario. Nonetheless and using the intraweek chart, this move down could be simply a required/needed retest of the recent 7-month low at .274 and if that is the case and the stock then rallies above last week's high at .342, a successful retest of the low will have occurred and a new buy signal given. There is quite a bit of decent intraweek support between .266 and .282 as that level held up strongly for 2 months at the beginning of the year. In the entire history of the company which spans 60 weeks, never before has the stock suffered 5 red weekly closes in a row. There has been no negative news for the company other than the general malaise affecting the Canadian Cannabis industry and this is not one of the companies that is at risk of a balloon loan payment coming up soon, suggesting the probabilities favor a positive result at the end of the week.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.04. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.12 (new price (51.22). 3) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0345. 4) AAPL - Covered shorts at 219.47. Averaged short at 190.665. Loss on trade of $5752 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions. 5) AAPL - Covered shorts at 212.07. Averaged short at 212.175. Profit on the trade of $21 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions. 6) ENTG - Covered shorts at 45.35. Averaged short at 42.605. Loss on the trade of $540 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions. 7) FNV - Purchased at 93.12 and 91.07. Averaged long at 90.15 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 89.98. 8) BABA - Covered Shorts at 172.82. Shorted at 178.13. Profit on the trade of $531 per 100 shares minus commissions. 9) CRON - Averaged long at 14.033 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 11.53. 10) AU - Purchased at 20.05 and at 19.05. Averaged long at 19.205 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.84. 11) MDT - Shorted at 102.35. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 109.67. 12) COF - Averaged short at 85.285 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday 93.62. 13) ARNA - Purchased at 50.42 and 49.96. Averaged long at 50.19 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 51.22.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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