Issue #632 ![]() Sep 22, 2019 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bears now in Control. Important Economic Reports Week Ahead!
DOW Friday closing price - 26820
The indexes all generated a second round of red weekly closes on Friday, meaning that the recent rally has been confirmed as being over and more importantly for the bears that the all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs now show a successfully confirmed retest of them. The indexes all closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's lows are anticipated to be seen this coming week (DOW below 26704, SPX below 2945 and NASDAQ below 7890). There were no fundamental changes that occurred but the official beginning of an Impeachment inquiry into the Trump presidency did generate additional selling interest.
The bears were unable to make a short-term bear statement given that the breakaway/runaway gap formation in the DOW and the SPX remain in place as well as those two same indexes remaining above the breakout point of the inverted flag formation at 26378 and 2938 respectively. Nonetheless, the NASDAQ did close its gap down at 7981 and also gave a failure signal to the inverted flag negation when it closed at 7939 and the negation of the bear flag was at 8039. The SPX came within 6 points of closing its runaway gap at 2939 and given that the indexes are likely to go below last week's lows this week unless some positive but unexpected fundamental change is reported over the weekend, closure of the runaway gaps is now a high probability, which in turn would be a catalyst for further downside to close the breakaway gaps below. As such, it can be said that the week was not uniformly negative across the board given that the bears keyed more on the Tech Industry but that the probabilities favor at least the SPX confirming the negation this week as well.
One of the probable reasons why last week was not uniformly negative is that this coming week does have a slew of important economic reports that the traders are anxiously waiting for, starting with the ISM Manufacturing index on Tuesday, Factory Orders on Thursday and the Jobs report on Friday. Two of the three are expected to come in better than last month with the ISM expected at 50.1% (last month was 49.1%), Factory Orders expected at 0% (last month it was 1.4%) and Jobs expected at 150k (last month it was 130k). The ISM index on Tuesday could be the most important because anything below 50% means contraction in the industry and if 2 months in a row it comes in below that level it will be confirmation that growth is now negative. As such, it is possible that Tuesday will be the pivot day for the week.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows resistance at 27709, at 27272, at 27306 and at the all-time high at 27398, the SPX now shows resistance at 3007, a double high at 3020 and at the all-time high at 3028 and the NASDAQ now shows resistance at 8158, at 8237, at 8244 and at the all-time high at 8339.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows general support around 26700 and minor at 26465. Below that, it is a straight line to the 26,000 demilitarized zone. The SPX shows no support until the 2900 demilitarized zone is reached. The b>NASDAQ shows no support until minor at 7879 and short-term pivotal at 7847.
Chart-wise the bears now seem to be in control given that the support levels below are mostly minor in nature, meaning that without some positive fundamental help there are no areas where automatic buying interest will be found. This does open the door for some strong selling to be seen this week or immediately after Friday's Jobs report if there are no better than expected results. The Fed does not meet again until the end of October so after this week the economic calendar will be useless to the bulls for at least 3 weeks.
Probable downside targets for the next 3 weeks (if there are no positive economic surprises this week) are in the DOW at 26,000, in the SPX at 2872 and in the NASDAQ at 7825. Nonetheless, the index mostly likely watched for the next few weeks is the NASDAQ given that any weekly close below 7751 will generate a sell signal on the weekly chart that has not occurred since October 2018. A sell signal would effectively kill the recent thrust toward new all-time highs and put the indexes potentially into a bear market. It is important to note that 7751 is only 178 points (2.4%) from Friday's close and with the index having fallen 3% over the past 2 weeks, reaching that lower level is certainly a high possibility.
This coming week will be somewhat dependent on the economic reports but if there are no positive surprises to the upside, the bears will continue to be in short-term control. The levels to watch are clear with any daily close in the SPX below 2939 being a clear trigger for further downside. Probabilities favor the bears.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The bears are in control at this time but with a full slate of short positions already held, there will be no new mentions made. In addition, this is a week with a slew of important economic reports, any of which if better than expected could give the bulls some reason to buy given that the bears have not yet made a statement that can be depended on. After each report comes out (first one is Tuesday morning), I will see if there are trades than can be done and mention them in the message board.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AAPL generated a new all-time high weekly close but then only by $.07 cents, meaning that is was not a statement of force, especially considering that the stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 217.14 is expected to be seen this week. Support is found at the 217.02 level which has not been broken during the past 13 trading days but that area now shows a total of 5 lows between 217.02 and 217.47 that is strongly suggestive of a break occurring. It is important to note that below 217.02 there is no support whatsoever until 211.07 which is where the runaway gap is located. The probabilities of the stock heading down to that level are high. If the SPX closes its breakaway/runaway gap formation (as the probabilities suggest), the traders will likely attempt to do the same with the stock and that would mean a drop down to 206.98 would occur. Pivotal resistance level is now found at last week's high at 222.49, which in turn suggests the stop loss should be lowered to 222.59. Probabilities favor the bears. ARNA continued its strong move down, having generated the biggest down trading range in 7 weeks with a 14.1% loss from high to low. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 44.57 is expected to be seen. This was the 6th red weekly close in a row and the 8th out of the last 9 with the stock having now lost 31% from the high at 64.48, suggesting that for the rest of the year the 64.48 high will not be broken. On a small positive note, a positive reversal day occurred on Friday, having made a new 21-week low but then closing green on Friday, meaning that there is buying interest in this area. In addition, the stock is now very close to the 100-week MA, currently at 43.76, which has not been broken to the downside for 26 months. To my knowledge, there has been no negative fundamental change, suggesting this move down has been more technical in nature than fundamental. The 42.28 level on the weekly closing chart is pivotal support that if broken would turn the longer term trend down. It is doubtful that will happen without a negative change of fundamentals. The 200-day MA is currently at 50.55. The line was broken on Tuesday after holding above it since January 4th. It is likely that before any further downside of consequence can be considered by the bears, that the break of the line will be tested, meaning the probabilities favor a rally back up to 50.55 this coming week, even within the context of the recent bear selling. There is some minor but established intraweek support at 44.10 that could be seen if the stock does go below last week's low at 44.57 (as expected). This could mean that a 44.10-50.55 trading range could be seen this week. When compared to last week's trading range of $7.27, it is certainly possible and perhaps even probable. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. AU generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 2-week high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 18.72 will be seen this week. The inability of the bulls to continue higher (on a weekly closing basis) after having successfully tested support and generating a positive reversal week the previous week, underlies the uncertainty that the Gold market is facing right now. As it is, Gold is now showing a bearish Head & Shoulders formation with the neckline at $1488 and it too generating a negative reversal and a close on Friday at $1503 and a low of $1493. Evidently both Gold and the stock are at a pivotal level this week. On a possible positive note, the stock gapped down on Friday between 20.06 and 19.47 and there was no news to support the gap, meaning that if there are no changes to the fundamental picture over the weekend, the traders are likely to target closure of the gap, especially if the bears are unable to break the double low support at 18.58/18.55. Pivotal resistance is found at 21.16. Probabilities do favor the bears but it is definitely a pivotal week for both Gold and the stocks. COF confirmed the successful retest of the July weekly closing high at 98.08 with a second red weekly close in a row. Thi confirms that the high weekly close seen 3 weeks ago at 93.62 is a successful retest of that high. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 90.23 is likely to occur. Nonetheless, the stock generated a green daily close on Friday and there is short-term intraweek support at the double low built at 90.12/90.23, suggesting the first course of action on Monday will be to the upside. Nonetheless, there is substantial intraweek resistance between 92.27 and 93.13 that is unlikely to be broken and if the 90.12 level gets broken, there is no support of consequence below until 88.00 is reached. Weekly chart shows the same support at 88.00 but it also shows a high probability of the stock getting down to 85.27 before some stronger buying interest enters. Probabilities favor the bears. CRON generated the 9th red weekly close out of the last 10 weeks and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.93 will be seen this week. The break of the $10 demilitarized zone is particularly worrisome as it suggests that the bears are in full control. The stock is now nearing a highly pivotal area of weekly close support at 7.78 that if broken would turn the stock outright bearish. It is doubtful that will occur given that the woes have not been on the company itself but on the industry and in the industry there is no reason to believe that Cannabis purchases are on the decline. The stock has now lost 65% of its value over the past 7 months and is getting into a severely oversold condition that is not supported fundamentally, at least not for the long term. The $8 area is a long established area of support with at least 8 different points of reference over the past 2 years. As such, it is highly likely that the stock is now close to a bottom where a recovery rally back up to at least the $10 area, if not the 10.70 area where the 100-week MA is currently at (a line that had not ever been broken to the downside). As such, the probabilities strongly favor a positive reversal week occurring this week. DD generated a 2nd red weekly close in a row, confirming that the close seen 3 weeks ago at 73.54 means that the long term downtrend continues unabated (continuing lower weekly closes). The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 69.67 will be seen this week. There is minor to decent intraweek support at 69.59 that if not broken could generate a bounce but if broken would open the door for a drop down to 65.63 to happen. The stock shows 3 gaps below with the most recent gap being between 67.60 and 67.90. There is no reason for that gap not to be closed. The other 2 gaps are between 64.62 and 64.97 and between 66.10 and 66.58, which are a breakaway and runaway gap based on a positive earnings report (fundamental change) that at this moment are not likely to be closed unless the index market breaks down. As such, the probabilities are high that a drop down to 67.60 will occur but that consideration be given to taking profits at that time. Short term pivotal resistance is found at 72.90 and longer term pivotal at 73.77. Probabilities favor the bears. DIS made a new 5+-month low this past week and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 128.92 will be seen this week. The stock had built a strong double low weekly close support at 131.67 and on the daily closing chart at 131.34 and both of those were broken convincingly. Confirmation of the break on the daily chart occurred and if the stock closes once again below 131.67 this coming Friday, it will suggest strong further downside is to be seen. There is no daily or weekly close support below until the $120 level is reached, suggesting that is the objective of this break. Nonetheless and using the weekly closing chart, there is support at the 200-week MA, currently at 126.50, that should be targeted either this week or within the next 3 weeks at the very minimum. A weekly close above 131.67 next Friday would take away some ammunition from the bears and put the stock into a "let's see what happens mode". Otherwise, the bears are now in full control of the stock. Probabilities favor the bears. ENG closed below the 1.00 level for the first time is the past 9 weeks but given that the low for the week was .90, it does mean that the stock closed slightly above the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 1.05 than below last week's low. On a weekly closing basis, minor support was found at .99 so the close $.01 cent below that level is not a bear statement. The low at .90 does mimic the spike low seen in August 2018 and that low did stand up for 9 weeks before it was broken to the downside when the stock was in a downtrend. The opposite should happen now given the stock is still in a midterm uptrend. A rally above 1.05 this coming week will make that .90 cent low into a spike and likely bring in new buying interest. A daily or weekly close above 1.10 would negate the recent downtrend and give ammunition to the bulls to resume the uptrend. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. FNV generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 2-week high and then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 92.19. Like with AU and Gold, this is a pivotal week for the stock given that if Gold breaks below $1488, the recent uptrend will be over for the next few weeks or couple of months. By the same token, if Gold does not break support and rallies and the stock generates a positive reversal to the upside this coming week, then a successful retest of the recent low will have occurred and resumption of the uptrend may have begun. Pivotal support is found at 89.49. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. MDT generated a classic reversal week, having made a new all-time high but then closing red, below the previous weeks low, and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 106.28 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a confirmed sell signal on the daily closing chart, having closed below the previous 4-week low daily close at 107.47 on both Thursday and Friday, suggesting that the uptrend is over for now. If the bears can generate a close below 106.05 any day this week, another sell signal will be given that would offer at least a drop down to 103.75. The weekly chart though, offers a $100 objective if the intraweek support at 106.08 is broken. Resistance is now found at 109.70 that if broken would negate the short term bearish scenario. Probabilities favor the bears this week. SNAP generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 9-week high and then turning around to close in the red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 15.70 will be seen this week. The stock gapped up on Tuesday when Guggenheim upgraded the stock from neutral to a buy with an upside objective of $22. Nonetheless and spite of the gap and the upgrade, the bulls were unable to get above the previous intraweek high at 18.36, having made a high of 18.17 and then selling off the rest of the week. As such, there is now a double top at 18.36/18.17 that is unlikely to be broken without a tangibly positive fundamental change. There is quite a bit of support below with spike lows at 15.52, at 15.47, at 15.03 and at 14.57. A break below 14.57 would be significant and likely cause the stock to drop down to the $14 level if not all the way down to $12. Probabilities favor the bears but the way down is not likely to be fast or swift. A rally above Friday's high at 17.01 would deflate the short-term bearish scenario. SRUTF technically generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week low at .279 and then closing green. Nonetheless, the stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, leaving the door open to going above last week's high at .317 or below last week's low at .279. On a weekly closing basis, the fact the stock has closed the past 4 weeks between .293 and .309 is suggestive of a stock that is waiting for news or help from the Cannabis industry for direction. In looking at the other held stock in that industry (CRON), I would venture to say the probabilities are now starting to favor the bulls as it is likely the industry is near the bottom of the recent downtrend. A daily close below .286 or above .322 will be indicative of new direction. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .98. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.57 (new price (45.70). 3) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0372. 4) AAPL - Shorted at 223.38. Stop loss at 222.59. Stock closed on Friday at 218.83. 5) DIS - Shorted at 137.25. Stop loss now at 132.07. Stock closed on Friday at 129.96. 6) SNAP - Shorted at 18.07. Averaged short at 17.48 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 18.46. Stock closed on Friday at 16.02. 7) FNV - Averaged long at 90.15 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 92.63. 8) CRON - Averaged long at 14.033 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.145. 9) AU - Averaged long at 19.205 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.05. 10) MDT - Shorted at 102.35. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 107.32. 11) COF - Averaged short at 85.285 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 91.34. 12) ARNA - Purchased at 44.70. Averaged long at 48.36 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 45.70. 13) DD - Shorted at 71.56. Stop loss at 73.87. Stock closed on Friday at 70.25.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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