Issue #650
December 29, 2019
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Traders Awaiting the New Year for News and Participation. It Could Begin this Week!

DOW Friday closing price - 28645
SPX Friday closing price - 3240
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 9006

The indexes have continued to go higher and in a somewhat aggressive way given that over the past 2 weeks the gains have increased by almost 3%. Most of this can be credited to the fact that trader participation is low during the Xmas holiday period and for the fact that the indexes are in new highs and no chart resistance is found above, meaning no chart area where the bears can gather and sell as a group. It should also be noted that the indexes have generated record moves inasmuch as the duration of the recent uptrend without a correction. Going back 20 years, there has not been one single straight up rally without some form of correction going for more than 10 weeks. Last week was the 12th week in a row with no correction seen, meaning that at least for the past 20 years that I researched, this has not happened before. More importantly, the only thing that has fed this rally fundamentally has been the announcement of a trade deal with China, but even then the details of the agreement are not yet known, meaning that it is uncertain as to how much benefit it may bring......or not.

One thing that does need to be mentioned is that the biggest gainer has been the Tech Industry (through the NASDAQ) and that brings up a question as to how much more those companies can appreciate and if they are now in a bubble. AMZN was trading in 2009 at $37, in 2017 at $868 and as of Friday at $1869. AAPL was trading in 2009 at $37, in 2017 at $141 and on Friday at $289. MSFT was trading in 2009 at $15, in 2017 at $66 and on Friday at $160 and GOOGL was trading in 2009 at $147, in 2017 at $847 and on Friday at $1367. These stocks were already seen as in a bubble in 2017 and now 2-3 times higher in price, that bubble seems even bigger than ever before. Perhaps it should be noted that the last time the index saw this kind of a rally was in the 1990's when the Dot.com era occurred and where the index rallied from 330 to 5132 over a period of 11 years and now this coming year will be the 11th year since the bottom of the 2008/2009 recession occurred.

In looking at the charts this morning, I noticed that in 2007 when the index market topped out, it took a total of 5 months before the correction-that-turned-into-a-downtrend occurred. On that occasion, the SPX rallied for a total of 13 months before an 11% correction occurred. A rally and a new high was then seen 2 months later, followed by the downtrend that took the index from 1576 to 666 over the following 17 months. More importantly and for the 3 months in a row to new highs and more, the index rallied aggressively from 1363 to 1535, which was an 11% rally from low to high. For the past 3 months, the index has rallied aggressively from 2855 to Friday's high at 3247, which is a 12% rally. If the same scenario as in 2007 is to occur now, it would mean that January would be a red inside month, February would generate a negative reversal month, making a new high but then closing red, March would be a rally month and April a new all-time high made, followed with a downtrend thereafter. This scenario (or something like it) has become a real possibility given that this coming year is an election year and Trump's reelection is far from guaranteed. Under this outlook, companies and investors are going to be careful (not aggressive) and company owners are not likely to make expansion plans, which in turn mean less profits and more unemployment. Investors usually anticipate things 9 months in advance and since the numbers presently known about Trump (under 50% approval and facing an impeachment) does not suggest he will be reelected, I would venture to say that traders will either be taking profits and getting on the sidelines or selling rather than being aggressive buyers.

Though all of this does not specifically relate to what the market is likely to do in January, it does suggest that overall the bulls are not going to continue buying under these extremely overbought conditions unless a correction occurs where they can buy cheaper and have some chart area where support has either been built before or is built now.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, there is no support below until lows seen 5 weeks ago are reached. In the DOW support of any consequence is not found until 27325 is reached, in the SPX support is at 3070 and in the NASDAQ it is at 8435.

As you can see by the support levels mentioned above, a correction of 6-7% could occur just to test the most recent support areas. Nonetheless, the previous all-time weekly closing highs (DOW at 27332, SPX at 3025 and NASDAQ at 8330) is highly possible, meaning that from Friday's closing prices, a correction near 10% could be seen, which is the same as seen in 2007 just prior to a new all-time high by a small amount made, followed by a downtrend.

As far as this coming week is concerned, there are only 2 economic reports of consequence due out and the first one on Tuesday (Consumer Confidence) is not likely to have any effect on the market given that most traders will not be around. The second report is the ISM Index that comes out on Friday and if it comes out as expected at 49%, will mean that the slow down and lack of growth in the economy will be further supported. Given the high prices seen at this time, that report could be a negative. By the same token, if it unexpectedly comes out above 50, it would give the bulls one more reason to make new all-time highs. Probabilities do not favor the latter. As such and following what happened in 2007, trading on January could start in the red and stay below the all-time highs the rest of the month. The Jobs report will not be coming out until January 10th, meaning the bulls will not have a possible positive catalyst this week (normally the Jobs report is beneficial to the bulls). As such, I would venture to say that the probabilities favor the bears this coming week, at least for the end of the week.

One last thing to mention is that with the Xmas holiday season now over (as of the following week), traders are likely to go back to the charts for making trading decisions. December was not a good chart month given the China trade deal announcement, the slowness of the holiday period and the lack of chart points of resistance to slow down or stop the bulls. That is likely to change starting January as there are a lot of chart reasons for the traders to trade (psychological resistance levels such as 29,0000 in the DOW and 9000 on the NAZ, unsupportes-by-news gaps below, and testing of the previous all-time highs to establish new support). With little in the way of fundamentals news scheduled for January, the traders are likely to go back to chart trading for the entire month.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions at this time but the year ends on Wednesday and economic reports for the end of the year start to come out on Friday. In addition, the traders will start coming back from the Xmas holiday period and begin to plan the strategy for the New Year. As such, if anything does happen at the end of the week, I will have mentions based on what action is seen.

It is not likely that the traders will start doing anything until the following week, meaning that there probably won't be any signs given this coming week. By the same token and chart-wise, with the ISM index coming out on Friday, the weekly close this week could give a clue and if so, it will give me enough information to offer new mentions on the next newsletter, the following week.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA had a very uneventful week but did close near the low of the week, suggesting some downside below last week's low at 45.85 will be seen this week. There is some short-term pivotal support at 44.31 and longer term pivotal at 43.09. Pivotal resistance is found at 49.78. Probabilities favor more of the same as seen recently, at least until the following week when traders get more involved.

AU made a new 2-month intraweek and weekly closing high last week and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 22.50 will be seen this week. The stock closed near a short-term pivotal weekly closing level at 22.14 that if broken would suggest further upside and above the 6-year intraweek high at 23.85 will be seen. Gold was strong last week but also just failed to give a new buy signal on the weekly closing chart, meaning this coming week does have importance as a green weekly close above 1518.50 in Gold and above 22.14 in the stock would confirm that further upside is coming. Daily close support is found at the $20 demilitarized zone that should no longer be broken if Gold has seen its correction and is now resuming the uptrend. Probabilities favor the bulls.

COF confirmed with a second red weekly close in a row that the weekly close seen 3 weeks ago at 104.37 is now a successful retest of the all-time high weekly close at 105.43 seen in January 2018. The stock closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher possibility of going below last week's low at 102.47 than above last week's high at 103.74. By the same token, the stock did generate a minor sell signal on the daily closing chart in which the breakdown point was retested successfully on Thursday, even more suggesting the bears have a slight edge this week. There is short-term pivotal support at 101.28 that if broken would suggest the previous spike high daily close at 98.08 would be tested. Intraweek resistance is found at 104.34 that if broken would likely mean the recent intraweek high at 105.70 would be tested. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

CRON generated an uneventful inside week and a close that was just slightly below the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 6.76 than above last week's high at 7.15. Nonetheless, unless the short-term intraweek support at 6.56 is broken, the stock is mostly marking time until the New Year begins when traders will resume trading. Pivotal resistance is found at 7.57 that if broken would suggest the bulls have gained the short-term edge. Probabilities favor more of the same as last week with nothing of any consequence occurring.

ENG generated an uneventful inside week but it does slightly favor the bears given that some follow through to the upside should have been seen this past week. Nonetheless and using the daily and weekly closing charts, the stock remains in "no-man's land" with no clue as to what direction will be seen when the New Year starts. On a weekly closing basis, pivotal support is found at .90 and resistance at 1.11. With the stock closing at .99 on Friday, there is no indication of either one likely to be broken this week. Probabilities favor another uneventful week this week.

FNV made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high this week and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 103.87 will be seen this week. The new all-time high weekly close makes the previous one at 99.04 as a support level that should not be broken if the stock is to continue the 15-month rally. Daily close support is now found at its previous all-time high at 100.94, meaning that 2 closes in a row below that level would weaken the chart. Probabilities favor the bulls but keeping a watch on Gold should be done.

GS generated another new 15-month intraweek and weekly closing high and the stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 232.21 will be seen this week. The stock did break the decent weekly close resistance at the $230 demilitarized zone, meaning that if another green close is seen next Friday, the breakout will be confirmed and further upside seen. Nonetheless, the stock closed on the low of the day on Friday and the first course of business on Monday will be to the downside. Short term pivotal support is found at 228.41 that if broken would suggest a drop down to the $223 level would be seen. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 234.06. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week but with no intraweek breakout or breakdown occurring. Next week's close on Friday could be indicative. Any close next Friday below 229.70 would be a bear sign.

IBM generated an uneventful inside week and a close in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning that no clue as to what the traders will be doing this week, or even if they will do anything. The daily chart is showing a double high at 136.15/136.42 that makes the chart lean toward the bears. In addition, the stock has traded totally sideways for the past 7 weeks in spite of the indexes making new highs every week and that is an overall negative of consequence, especially when it is the Tech industry that has led the rally and the company is in that sector. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 136.42 and short-term pivotal support is found at 133.46. Probabilities favor more sideways action this week.

SGMO generated another red weekly close, the 3rd in a row since the news came out. The stock did close near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 8.31 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, on an intraweek basis, the stock did get above last week's high and the red weekly close was only by $.05 cents, suggesting that there is buying interest at the previously established support at the $8 level. If the stock does get below last week's low but not below the low at 7.86 seen the week before and then generates a green weekly close next Friday, the probabilities of a successful retest of the support at the $8 demilitarized zone will be high. Probabilities do slightly favor that scenario.

SRUTF continues to languish without any buying interest being shown. The stock made a new all-time weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .1450 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the all-time intraweek low is at .1405 so if the stock does go below last week's low but does not make a new intraweek low, a bit of new buying interest might be stimulated. By the same token and on a possible positive fundamental basis, a Cannabis derivatives law and campaign was approved in Canada and the launch of that occurred just 2 weeks ago and the company is in that part of the industry, meaning that if that starts to show some success, it would change the chart outlook. The Cannabis derivate market (such as edibles, infused beverages, vapes, topicals and concentrates) offers higher profits than just the plant itself and that is the industry the company is in. As such, there is a decent chance that some information about the success (or lack of it) will start coming in over the next few weeks. With the stock severely depressed and oversold to the max, any good new will cause a spike up to occur. Minor resistance is found at .18 and then a tiny bit stronger at .189 and then again at .202. Nonetheless, any break above .202 will like generate a rally all the way up to .254 and such a rally would be a clear signal that a bottom to the downtrend has been found. Support is now found at .14 and at .145 that if broken, would mean the bears remain in clear control. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .99.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.60 (new price (46.05).

3) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .024.

4) COF - Averaged short at 91.73 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 103.00.

5) GS - Averaged short at 220.35. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 230.66.

6) FNV - Averaged long at 90.15 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 96.13. Stock closed on Friday at 101.90.

7) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.88.

8) AU - Averaged long at 19.205 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.95.

9) SGMO - Purchased at 8.30 and at 7.92. Averaged long at 8.11 (2 mentions. Stop loss at 7.60. Stock closed on Friday at 8.36.

10) ARNA - Averaged long at 48.36 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 46.05.

11) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .1450.

12) IBM - Shorted at 134.11. Stop loss at 136.35. Stock closed on Friday at 135.27


Join The Oasis and receive chart information about stocks you personally follow as well as ideas about other stocks with powerful chart patterns.

Previous Newsletters

View Aug 18, 2019 Newsletter

View Aug 25, 2019 Newsletter

View Sep 01, 2019 Newsletter

View Sep 08, 2019 Newsletter

View Sep 15, 2019 Newsletter

View Sep 22, 2019 Newsletter

View Sep 29, 2019 Newsletter

View Oct 06, 2019 Newsletter

View Oct 13, 2019 Newsletter

View Oct 20, 2019 Newsletter

View Nov 03, 2019 Newsletter

View Nov 10, 2019 Newsletter

View Nov 17, 2019 Newsletter

View Nov 24, 2019 Newsletter

View Dec 01, 2019 Newsletter

View Dec 08, 2019 Newsletter

View Dec 15, 2019 Newsletter

Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.
A must have for chart aficionados!


Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




The Oasis is owned by
Oasis Resolutions Inc.