Issue #649
December 15, 2019
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


All Uncertainties Resolved. Market Looking for Direction but Xmas in the Way!

DOW Friday closing price - 28135
SPX Friday closing price - 3168
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 8734

The indexes continued the uptrend with all indexes making new all-time intraweek and weekly closing prices after the announcement that the Phase 1 of the trade agreement had been done. Nonetheless and on Friday when it was announced as a "done deal", no further upside was seen with the DOW closing 3 points higher, the SPX .23 points higher and the NASDAQ 17 points higher than Thursday's close, suggesting that the agreement was already factored into the price. This does suggest that further good news is required to push stocks even higher than what already has been seen. With no economic reports of consequence due out for the next 3 weeks and the Xmas season by nature being extremely slow and limited, it does suggest that most traders will not be trading in either direction for the rest of the month and that the indexes are more likely to drift lower (rather than higher) simply because some end-of-the-year profit taking is more likely to occur than not.

More importantly and looking at the RSI and Stochastic indicators, there is a high probability of a correction occurring given the history of them being overbought has led to a correction. In the past 12 months, there have been 3 previous occasions where a major high was made in the slow stochastic number and when that number was tested, an immediate correction occurred. On February 6th the stochastic number hit 97 when the SPX was at 2735 and 2 weeks later the number got up to 96 and the index up to 2815 and a correction of 3% occurred with the index going down to 2722 occurred. In April 17th the stochastic number got up to 97.84 with the index at 2895 and 3 weeks later the stochastic hit 94.81 and the index up to 2954 and subsequently and immediately a correction of 7.7% occurred that took the index down to 2827 within 2 weeks. On July 15th the stochastic number got up to 96.94 with the index at 3017 and on July 27th the stochastic hit 87.27 and the index dropped down immediately 6.8% down to 2822. Last but not least, on September 6th when the index was at 2985, the stochastic hit 95.84 and a few days later the stochastic hit 94.85 and the index got up to 3021, a week later the index corrected 3.7% down to 2910. On this occasion, the stochastic got up to 98.45 on the 27th of last month and the index was at 3154 and on Friday the index was at 3182 with the stochastic at 88.40. The same thing can be said about the RSI and the 70 level over this period of time. The RSI got up to 75 on the 27th of last month and on Friday it was at 67.08. Based on these occasions, both the index and the stochastic could rally a bit more but overall history is showing that within a few days or a week or two at most, a correction of some consequence will start.

Bottom line is that with the Fed now clearly on hold regarding interest rates and the anticipation of a trade deal happening now over, traders will turn back to the charts and technical indicators for making decisions. There are no important economic news until the first week of January when the next ISM Index and Jobs reports are due out and then the next earnings quarter starts on the week of January 13th, meaning that it is unlikely the traders will wait until then for a correction to happen. This scenario with the overbought oscillators mentioned above could mean that unlike other years, a correction could be seen in December. Of course, this is pure conjecture and speculation on my part but the reality is that further upside can only be limited in nature due to all the news being out. What better time to take profits than before the end of the year than now?

To the upside and on an intraweek basis and in all the indexes, there are no resistance levels of any consequence above., .

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, last week's lows are now considered pivotal, not only because there is shown support there but also because breaking of those lows will close the runaway gap in the SPX and NAZ. In the DOW last week's low was 2780, in the SPX it was 3126 and in the NASDAQ it was 8600. Below that, there is no support of consequence until the previous all-time high weekly closes are reached (DOW at 27332, SPX at 3025 and NASDAQ at 8336).

The indexes all closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs are expected to be seen this week. In the DOW above 28290, in the SPX above 3182 and in the NASDAQ above 8768. Nonetheless and for the reasons given above, there is a decent possibility that a negative reversal week will occur. There is nothing in the way of economic reports or catalytic news that will give the bulls additional ammunition to take the stocks higher and there are good reasons to think that a correction could start now and be finished by the first week of January when news once again starts to come out that could help the bulls.

Probabilities favor the bears this week for a red close on Friday but only slightly and only because of the adage "buy the anticipation and sell the fact".

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

The Xmas period is generally quiet and with little movement and therefore not conducive to trading anything. Nonetheless, I was prepared to mention some sales given the adage of "buy the anticipation and sell the fact". Then again, some selling should have been seen last week after the trade agreement was announced and it did not happen, meaning that there doesn't seem to be any clear desire to take profits or short the market. On the other side of the coin, with the good news and open air above, the bulls had nothing to stop them from going higher but that did not happen either. As such, it seems that all the news has been factored into the prices and that means that the traders are going to wait for further news to go in either direction. That kind of news will not be available until the New Year.

What then I am doing is giving one mention on a company that was given to me by a previous subscriber of the service one week ago and told that fundamentally it is a good purchase, if and when a desire chart entry point is found. That is occurring so I am giving that mention this week.

SGMO Friday Closing Price - 8.51

SGMO is a biopharma company in the gene and cell area of medicine. The stock started trading in January 2010 at 5.50 and within 2 years had moved up to 24.50 from where a downtrend began that took the stock back down to near the all-time low made in 2011 at 2.36 with a drop down to 2.65. The stock then again began an uptrend that within 14 months took the stock up to new all-time highs with a rally to 27.50 seen in March of last year. The stock then again began a downtrend down to 6.26 that was seen in February of this year. A bounce then occurred up to 13.91 and another drop down to 7.70 and then followed by another rally to 12.33 seen 2 weeks ago this coming Friday.

The action seen over the past 9 months, with the successful retest of the 6.26 low and the rally back up to 13.91, followed by the recent rally to 12.33, suggests that for now the stock has stopped trending (likely waiting for the next set of clinical trials due to come out in late 2020) and that a trading range scenario between $8 and $12 is the most likely scenario. Given that the fundamentals and the previous strong rallies up to the $24 and $27 level seem to support the future outlook of the company, the stock seems to be a good purchase when the lower area of the trading range is seen with a clear target of the upper end of the trading range at $12, and also with the higher possibility of good news (rather than bad) coming out and the stock seeing once again a rally to new highs.

On an intraweek basis, SGMO shows decent support at the October low at 7.70 and then strong support at the spike love previous to the new all-time high being made at 6.26. To the upside, the stock shows some minor to decent resistance at 10.59 and then nothing until the 12.00 to 12.33 area.

SGMO did get some short-term negative news on the 9th of the month in the form of the clinical trials being extended to late 2020 but it was not negative news, just news that did not support the price being at 12.33 and going higher. The stock spiked down right after the news 32% in value over a period of 5 days and did close near the low of the week last week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.37 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, there is decent support at 7.70 and some minor but evident support between 8.17 and 8.23 that is likely to be reached but also likely to generate a bounce up.

The big question with SGMO is whether the 7.70 level of support will hold up or whether it will be broken and the spike low at 6.26 tested, given that the outlook for good news over the short-term is very low. Nonetheless, when buying support is found, a retest of the recent 12.33 level is likely to be seen and given that purchasing the stock around the 8.23 level and using a stop loss at 7.50 and having at 12.00 objective offers a 5-1 risk/reward ratio, the trade is worth doing. If the support at 7.70 breaks, then a drop down near the 6.26 level will need to be considered, which in turn would offer a 9-1 risk/reward ratio. This scenario could suggest that 1 out of 2 trades could be a loser but if 1 of the 2 trades work out (the first one is a loser), the ending risk/reward ratio would still be 4-1.

Purchases of SGMO around the 8.25 level and using a stop loss at 7.60 and having at 12.00 objective, offers a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). If stopped out and then the stock repurchased near the 6.26 level, the rating on the trade would be a 4.25.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA generated a minor negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high but then closing red. Nonetheless, the action was muted and nothing was broken, suggesting that the stock will trade within a narrow trading range between 45.00 and 48.50 for the rest of the year. Short-term pivotal support is found at 44.94 and longer term pivotal support is found at 43.09. Short term pivotal resistance is found at 49.75 and longer term at 50.33. Probabilities favor the stock being in a sideways trading range for the next 3 weeks.

AU made a new 4-month intraweek and weekly closing high last week and closed slight in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher possibility of going above last week's high at 21.12 than below last week's low at 18.63. The stock did get a positive rating report from Moody's that helped the rally but mostly it was the fact that Gold rallied to close $16 above the previous week's close, suggesting that the recent weakness is over and that the traders will await further news at the beginning of the year, the same as the traders in the index market. Minor to perhaps decent intraweek support is found at 18.56 and pivotal support at 18.04 and minor to decent resistance is found at 21.74 and pivotal at 22.93. Probabilities favor the stock trading within that inner range for the next few weeks.

COF made a new 21-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closing near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 104.95 will be seen this week. The all-time high weekly close is at 105.43 (intraweek at 106.50) and one or both are targets to be seen this week. Nonetheless and just like with the index market, it is unlikely that much further upside will be seen until the New Year, suggesting that the stock will get up to the all-time high but not break it and trade sideways to lower for the next few weeks as new news is awaited. Minor to decent weekly close support is found at the $100 demilitarized zone and that means that the probabilities favor the stock trading between $100 and $105.50 for the next 3 weeks. On an intraweek basis, the upside could be as much as 106.50 and the downside as much as 98.23. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but only for a small gain.

CRON made a new 3-week high and closed in the green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.57 will be seen this week. In addition, the green weekly close makes last week's close at 6.71 into the required/needed retest of the recent 14-month weekly closing low at 6.28, which in turn suggests that at least for the short term that a bottom to the downtrend has occurred. In addition, a buy signal on the weekly closing chart was also generated, having closed above the most recent high weekly close at 7.07. On an intraweek basis, there is no resistance above until 7.94 to 8.13 level is reached, meaning that the probabilities strongly favor that area being reached this week. By the same token and on a weekly closing basis, there is minor to perhaps decent resistance between 7.23 and 7.37 and given that the stock closed on Friday at 7.28, it does mean that next Friday's close has some short-term importance because on a weekly closing basis, there is no resistance above until the 8.18-8.48 level is reached. This means that if the stock closes next Friday at least 10 points above 7.37 that on an intraweek basis, further upside above 8.13 is likely to be seen. Intraweek support is now found at the previous week's low at 6.37, meaning that a stop loss can now be placed at 6.27. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

ENG did generate some follow through to the downside to the previous week's weakness with an intraweek drop down to .99 and a weekly close $.03 cents lower than the previous week. The stock did close near the lows of the week and further downside below .99 is likely to be seen this week. Some minor intraweek support is found at .98 and then nothing until .90, so this area is short-term indicative. By the same token, the bulls were able to close above $1,00 on Friday, which in turn suggests that the stock is more likely to trade sideways between .98 and 1.10 for the next 3 weeks than not. A break below .78 or above 1.12 would be indicative. Probabilities favor a sideways trading range.

FNV had an uneventful inside week and continued to trade sideways between 96.94 and 98.32 (based on weekly closes). The fact that Gold generated a small but short-term indicative rally does give the bulls the edge this week. Pivotal support remains at 96.23 and resistance at 99.59. If any of those levels are broken, further movement in that direction is likely to be seen. Nonetheless and though the bulls have a small edge, probabilities favor sideways action between $97 and $99 for the next few weeks.

GS confirmed the breakout above the weekly close resistance at 222.91 that occurred the previous week, having generated a second close in a row above that level. The stock closed slightly above the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 227.99 is slightly more likely that a drop below last week's low at 220.55. Nonetheless, with the indexes trading at new all-time highs but the stock still trading 18.3% below its all-time high, suggests that the recent strength seen is more about the market than it is about the stock. In addition, the stock did not get anywhere close to the next intraweek resistance area between $230 and $234 and given that there is open air above at this time, it is a bit negative that the bulls were not able to accomplish more this past week. As far as support is concerned, there is minor support at the $220 level and then nothing until the $210-$214 level is reached. The stock did generate a negative reversal day on Friday, having reached the recent high that day and then closing red and near the low of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside and below Friday's low at 223.70. The stock is showing a gap between 217.63 and 218.82 that is not supported by news, meaning that it is a magnet for the traders as long as no new positive fundamental information for the stock or the indexes comes out (unlikely). As such and even though there is a slightly higher possibility of going above last week's high than below last week's low, I believe the probabilities favor the bears this week.

IBM generated a rally above the previous week's high and a green close as well but the bulls accomplished nothing in the way of resistance levels getting broken. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 133.26 and above last week's high at 135.66. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 136.15 and short-term pivotal support is found at 130.69. If either of those levels get broken, further movement in that direction is likely to be seen. By the same token and as with the index market, it is unlikely that any big decisions will be made during the next 3 weeks, suggesting a trading range between $131 and $136 is the most likely scenario. Then again, the stock is clearly in a downtrend and that means that the bears continue with the edge, meaning that if there are any surprises, they will likely be to the downside.

SRUTF generated the first green weekly close in the last 8 weeks and did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .1756 will be seen this week. With CRON giving a small buy signal, it does suggest that the selling pressure in the Cannabis industry is at least "on a pause" and that some short-covering action might be seen across the board. The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday, having made a 3-day low and then closing above the previous days high, meaning that the bulls are likely to have the edge at the beginning of the week. Minor resistance is found at .18 and then a tiny bit stronger at .189 and then again at .202. Nonetheless, any break above .202 will like generate a rally all the way up to .254 and such a rally would be a clear signal that a bottom to the downtrend has been found. Support is now found at .14 and at .145 that if broken, would mean the bears remain in clear control. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.01.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.70 (new price (47.02).

3) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .023.

4) COF - Averaged short at 91.73 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 104.37.

5) GS - Averaged short at 220.35. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 225.00.

6) FNV - Averaged long at 90.15 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 96.13. Stock closed on Friday at 98.50.

7) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.28.

8) AU - Averaged long at 19.205 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.94.

9) CLB - Liquidated at 45.11. Averaged long at 45.455. Loss on the trade of $67 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.

10) ARNA - Averaged long at 48.36 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 47.026.

11) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .1756.

12) IBM - Shorted at 134.11. Stop loss at 136.35. Stock closed on Friday at 134.21


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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