Issue #638
November 24, 2019
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Traders Await News From China Trade Agreement Before Making New Decisions!

DOW Friday closing price - 27875
SPX Friday closing price - 3110
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 8519

The indexes all generated a negative red weekly close reversal, having made new all-time intraweek highs but then closing red, likely meaning that the momentum rally has ended and that the traders will await tangible news regarding the finalization of the trade agreement with China before attempting to extend the rally further. By the same token, the indexes all closed around the middle of the weekly trading range, suggesting that the negative reversal was not all that indicative as there is an equal chance of making new all-time highs above last week's highs at (DOW 28090, SPX 3127 and NASDAQ 8589) or going below last week's lows at 27675, 3091 and 8468, respectively. The news regarding finalization of the Phase 1 of the trade agreement remains on a positive note and if that occurs, an immediate rush of new buying is likely to be seen. Whether it would be enough to make new highs and extend the rally is not clear but the anticipation of it continues to give the bulls ammunition.

This coming week there are only a few economic reports that could generate movement as there is Personal Income and Spending, PCE price index and Durable Goods on Wednesday. Nonetheless, at this time everything seems to depend on the trade agreement and there is no time frame scheduled for that news to be released. In addition, this week is a short week with the market closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, meaning there is even less interest in trading this week than other weeks, suggesting that if there is no news about the trade agreement, the indexes will do more idling than going in any direction.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis and in all the indexes, there is minor resistance at last week's highs (DOW at 28,090, SPX at 3127 and NASDAQ at 8589).

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, last week's lows are short-term pivotal support. In the DOW at 27675, in the SPX at 3091 and in the NASDAQ at 68. Below that, there is no support of consequence until the previous all-time high weekly closes are reached (DOW at 27332, SPX at 3025 and NASDAQ at 8336).

The traders at this time are no longer looking at the charts, given that supports close by below are minor and not catalytic or indicative enough (other than for short term moves) that if broken would generate a change of trend. On the other side of the coin and seeing last week's action, it is also evident that further upside is unlikely and if seen would be minimal. As such, trading the market this week is to be done exclusively from a news based scenario. Evidently, the trade agreement is the only catalyst that can move the market at this time as there are no economic or earnings reports scheduled for this week that are capable of "changing or supporting the trend". By the same token and re-stating what I said last week, every day that goes by without an announcement that the Phase 1 of the trade agreement has been finalized gives the bears new ammunition as delays in signing the trade agreement suggests that the agreement when signed would be less than what the United States is wanting to see. Xi has continued to request more and more concessions from Trump and anything less than what is already "baked in" to the present agreement will weaken the market. It is now Saturday at 3:00 pm and 5 hours ago Xi stated that "China wants to work for a trade deal but is "willing" to fight back to protect its own interests. This suggests that finalizing the trade deal is more in the hands of Trump than in the hands of the Chinese.

As such, if the trade agreement is not finalized it is likely to be an uneventful week but with a slight bearish bias. In addition, it is a short week with Thanksgiving on Thursday and many traders will either be out or not doing much. Then again, if there are any surprises, they are likely to be to the downside given that seasonally speaking November and through the first 2 weeks of December, the traders have had a habit of pushing the market down either because they are taking profits for the year or simply to buy cheaper for the beginning of the year.

Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There were no changes seen in the action this week that would suggest that things are changing in favor of the bulls or the bears. As such, I have no new mentions based on general direction of the market. Nonetheless, I do have 3 mentions based on fundamental and/or chart factors affecting these 3 stocks and their particular industries that is unlikely to change based on what the overall market does.

GS Friday Closing Price - 220.28

GS is a stock that normally would be affected by index action but there was a change of industry fundamentals that is highly likely to affect the stock negative. In addition, this is a stock that has been unable to follow the indexes to the upside even before this piece of news occurred, suggesting that its own fundamentals may have shown an inability to go higher before the negative news came out. The negative news is that Ameritrade just a few weeks ago decided that they would offer trades at no charge to the client. Their source of income would be exclusively from the interest rates charged on money on the sidelines and/or interest charged on margin accounts. Given that those interest rate charges were already being charged previously, it does mean that no matter the way you look at it, income for the brokerage firms that adopt this plan will be lower than before. It is also evident that those firms that do not adopt the same plan that Ameritrade has instituted will be at risk of clients moving to Ameritrade or any other company that does not charge fees for trading.

By the same token and on a chart basis, GS has also shown a strong inability to continue the 2-yer uptrend, given that the stock got up to 222.24 in July, got back up to 221.50 in September and following the index market broke above those 2 resistance levels 3 weeks ago with a rally to 224.77. Unfortunately for the bulls, they were not able to generate follow through to that breakout, having closed the following week at 220.25, which was below the previous week's close at 222.91 and also below the previous high weekly close seen in July at 222.14. The failure to follow through was confirmed this past week with the close at 220.28, which means 2 weekly closes in a row below the previous 2 high weekly closes.

With the new fundamental news regarding the competition lowering their trading fees to zero and the inability of the stock to continue upward during the past 4+ months in spite of the indexes moving up having rallied 2.8% during the same period of time, it does suggest a strong probability of the stock heading lower and with a clear desired entry point, stop loss point and minimum downside objectives that offer a very good risk/reward ratio as well as a decent and possibly high probability rating, this trade becomes a must do.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, GS shows decent resistance between 221.50 and 222.24 and decent to strong resistance at 224.77. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, there is minor support at 216.40 and then open air below until 199.10 is reached. On a daily closing basis, there is support at the 200-day MA, currently at 203.83 and on a weekly closing basis, there is support at the 200-week MA, currently at 210.43, neither of which will hold up if the change of fundamentals creates a non-competitive edge or the indexes head lower. There is no previous area of intraweek support of consequence until the 193.43 area is reached, meaning that this trade has a potential for at 12.7% profit.

Sales of GS between 221.49 and 224.23 and having a 224.87 stop loss at a 193.43 objective offers an 8-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

CRON Friday Closing Price - 7.07

CRON seems to have found a bottom to the 9 month downtrend where the stock lost 76% in value, especially with the news that the House passed a bill that make Marijuana legal in the United States. The normal scenario of a changing trend is to go from a downtrend to a sideways trend where support and resistance areas are tested several times before another change of trend occurs. With the stock having tested support this week after the news and fallen back, both support and resistance seem to be clearly defined and tradeable. By the same token and with the possibility of an important change in the fundamentals, there is an opportunity for more upside above resistance than downside below support.

CRON traded in a clearly defined sideways trend between $6 and $8 between December 2017 and October 2018 and it is now likely that the same thing will occur but perhaps with a bit more upside and a bit less downside due to the news. During that period of time, the stock saw 4 low weekly closes at 5.51, at 5.63. at 5.88 and the last one at 5.86 and 5 high weekly closes at 8.48, at 9.40, at 7.37, at 7.23 and the last one at 7.06. Nonetheless, on an intraweek basis, the low was 5.13 and the high 10.39. It does have to be mentioned that the company at that time had not established itself yet as a strong company in the industry and had not yet been bought by another strong company called Atria, meaning there is more reason to believe that the possibility of higher highs is greater than lower lows or even those lows being reached now.

CRON made a new 15 month low this past week at 6.04 and reversed to close in the green and in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting that at the very least a temporary low has been found, especially considering that the stock rallied 25% from the low to the high of the week. In addition, the low seen just prior to the rally that began in August of last year and that took the stock up to the $25 dollar level was 5.61 and this suggests that unless the industry is worse off than at that time, that low will not get broken.

Nonetheless, and given that the likely trading range is somewhat small, a good risk/reward ratio must be found that supports doing the trade. To fulfill this scenario, a stop loss at 6.30 will be used for the trade. On a daily closing basis, the stock broke out above 6.40 last week and what followed was a rally up to 8.07, suggesting the 6.40 level is now support. In addition, the 200 10-minute MA is currently at 6.83 and on that same chart there is quite a bit of intraday support at that same level. There is also decent intraday support at 6.58, suggesting that news would need to be bad for all 3 support areas to break.

Upside objective is a minimum of 8.15/8.67 to perhaps as high as 10.56 where a spike high is found.

Purchases of CRON between Friday's low at 6.85 and 6.72 and using a stop loss at 6.30 and having an 8.67 objective will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

CLB Friday Closing Price - 46.13

CLB is an oil related stock that made a 10+-year low at 36.61 just 15 weeks ago. During the past 15 weeks the traders have built a dependable bottom, having tested the 36.61 low 7 weeks ago with a drop back down to 40.39. During this period of time, oil also has been building support after its drop down to the $50 level and on Thursday, oil generated a small breakout above a level of resistance at 57.88 with a high at 58.67, followed with a high on Friday at 58.74. On both days, oil closed above the daily close resistance at 57.15. With no resistance above until 60.93 is reached, it seems oil will continue higher and the stock follow it as well.

CLB broke the 200-day MA, currently at 53.52, to the downside 13 months ago and with oil likely to go higher and the stock having built support for some higher prices, that line is a natural target at this time.

To the downside, last week's low in CLB at 43.65 is now considered support as on the daily chart it is now a second successful retest of the low made 15 weeks, having generated 3 subsequent higher lows and higher highs. In addition, the stock closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 46.87 will be seen this week. If that does not happen and last week's low is broken this week, then the last 4 month of building support, as well as the small breakout in oil, will be erased. The probabilities of that happening are low.

This is not a major trade but it is a high probability trade given that clearly defined support has been built and there is also a clearly defined upside objective that is a magnet, even within a bear market.

Using the intraday chart of CLB, it does look like the initial action for the week will be to the downside. There is quite a bit of support on that chart at 45.67 and even more at the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 45.14, that got broken to the upside on Thursday, after 8 days of trading below it. As such, the probabilities favor a drop to one of those areas where a purchase can be made that offers a good risk/reward ratio and a high probability rating.

Purchases of CLB below 45.68 and using a stop loss at 43.55 and having a 53.52 objective offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA generated a green weekly close, making the previous week's close at 45.81 into a successful retest of the 7-month low weekly close at 45.70 that was made 8 weeks ago. Given that the company reported lower than expected earnings 3 weeks ago, the green weekly close is a positive sign, suggesting the selling pressure has abated. By the same token, a couple of rating agencies lowered their upside targets to $51, also suggesting that the bulls are not going to have much fundamental ammunition at this time to generate a meaningful rally, meaning that my previously stated $60-$62 objective to be seen by the end of the year now has a low probability of occurring. Nonetheless, the action this week also suggests that the bears have no additional ammunition to take the stock lower, suggesting that stock might trade between $45 and $51 for the next 7 weeks. Probabilities do favor the stock getting back up to the $50-$51 level given that the previous multi-year weekly closing high that when broken to the upside generated a rally up to the $64 level and when broken to the downside generated a drop down to the $43 level is likely to be a magnet during this time frame. Any weekly close above the 200-week MA, currently at 51.55 or a below 42.48 would be indicative of new direction. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

AU generated an uneventful inside week but the stock did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 18.99 will be seen this week. The stock is showing minor to decent intraweek support at 18.55 that will be the target for this week. If that level is reached and then generates a green weekly close next Friday, the previous week's close 19.08 will have been tested successfully and this is important as the stock has established the 18.84 to 19.08 area as important and pivotal weekly close support. Any weekly close above 19.56 would now give a new buy signal. Probabilities favor another uneventful week without any decisive decisions made.

COF generated a new 14-month weekly closing high but only by $.02 cents and that is not a convincing break. In fact, if a red weekly close occurs next Friday, it will be seen as a double top. The previous intraweek high at 99.62, seen 3 weeks ago, did not get broken, meaning that the bulls did not accomplish anything new this past week. The stock did close on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 98.33 is expected to be seen this week. It is evident that this coming week is pivotal as a break above 99.62 or a convincing weekly close above the 98.08/98.10 next Friday would suggest further upside to the $100 level and even to the all-time weekly closing high at 105.43. By the same token, a red weekly close next Friday would suggest at drop down to at least the $92 level. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but this does seem to be a pivotal week.

CRON received good news in the form of the House passing a bill that would make Marijuana legal in the United States. The stock generated a spike rally up to the $8 level (where resistance is found) based on the news but then fell back to close in the middle of the week's trading range, leaving the door open for going above last week's high at 8.05 and well as below last week's low at 6.04. Nonetheless, with the stock at such low prices where long time support is found, the probabilities favor further upside being seen this week. The stock did close near the low of the day on Friday and further downside below Friday's low at 6.85 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the 200 10-minute MA is currently at 6.82 and though that line can be broken on a 10-minute basis, the news was positive enough that it is likely not to be broken on a 10-minute closing basis. Any move below Friday's low but then generating a reversal to the upside, will mean that a successful retest of the multi-month low at 6.04 will have occurred on the daily chart. Intraday support is found at 6.58 that if broken would give the edge back to the bears. As stated in the message board. I am looking to re-purchase the stock that was sold this past week at 8.01, between 6.72 and 6.85 this week. The $8.00 area remains a magnet given that the resistance there is more on a weekly closing basis than intraweek, suggesting more upside is to come this week. On an intraweek basis, resistance is found at 8.15 and again at 8.67, which means that is the upside target without further good news coming out. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

ENG generated a second inside week in a row, suggesting the traders are waiting for some catalyst to generate movement. By the same token and having reported earnings 2 weeks ago that were slightly lower than expected, the bears have been unable to get the stock below the 200-day MA, currently at .90, and that suggests the bulls continue to have the edge that they wrested away from the bears when the new $20 million contract was awarded to them in November 8th. As long as the stock stays above the .90 level on a closing basis, the probabilities will favor the bulls and new highs being made sometime down the line. The 1.10 level on a daily closing basis remains resistance but if broken, the 200-week MA, currently at 1.16, will remain pivotal resistance. If broken though, the recent high at 1.48 would then be targeted and broken, giving the 4-point and 10-year downtrend line at 1.88 an objective status. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FNV generated a small failure signal having made a new all-time high weekly close 2 weeks ago but then closing below the previous all-time high weekly close at 97.66 on Friday. The failure signal is not all that indicative given that no intraweek support level was broken and that a gap at 96.13 was formed after the earnings report that the traders seem to want to close due to the continued weakness and lack of direction being seen in Gold. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 96.48 is expected to be seen this week. Short-term pivotal support is found at 95.47 (previous week's low) that if broken would generate a double top on the intraweek chart at 101.19 and 100.70, which would suggest that a stronger correction than recently seen would be on the horizon. As such, any break below 95.47 would be a reason to consider taking profits. The stock remains in a bull run but with the better than expected earnings report and if the stock fails to follow through to the upside, it would suggest the bull run is over for a period of time. Probabilities still favor the bulls but this coming week could be pivotal.

GS generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low but then closing green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 220.71. This would not be a negative to the bears because if the recent multi-month high at 224.77 is not broken and the stock then closes red or in the lower half of the week's trading range and follow through to the downside the following week is seen, it would make this coming week's high into the required/necessary retest of the 224.77 high, which in turn would bring in new selling. Decent intraweek resistance is found between 221.50 and 222.24 that is a clear objective for this week but an area to consider adding short positions. Pivotal support is found at 216.55 that if broken would give strong ammunition to the bears for a drop down to at least $204-$206 area. Any break above 224.77 or a weekly close above 222.91 would be a bullish sign. Probabilities favor the bulls at the beginning of the week but the bears for the end of the week.

SRUTF generated once again a new all-time intraweek low at .15 and a new all-time weekly closing low at .187. Nonetheless, the stock did generate a bounce after the news of the House passing a bill in favor of Marijuana being legal and the stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .1876 will be seen this week. If that occurs, it would be the first sign that a potential bottom to this downtrend has been found. There is very minor resistance at .20 and then nothing until .254 is reached, meaning that if the stock goes above last week's high and gets up to the .25 level, a rally of approximately 60% from the low will have occurred and such a rally would be a strong sign of a bottom having been established. Some support is now found at .165 that should not be broken if the stock has found a bottom. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.00.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.67 (new price (46.67).

3) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .034.

4) COF - Averaged short at 91.73 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 100.35. Stock closed on Friday at 98.10.

5) GS - Shorted at 218.54. Stop loss at 224.87. Stock closed on Friday at 220.25.

6) FNV - Averaged long at 90.15 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 96.94.

7) CRON - Averaged long at 14.065 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.07.

8) AU - Averaged long at 19.205 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.15.

9) MDT - Covered shorts at 109.71. Shorted at 102.35. Loss on the trade of $736 per 100 shares plus comissions.

10) ARNA - Averaged long at 48.36 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 46.57.

11) DD - Covered shorts at 64,78. Averaged short at 71.03. Profit on the trade of $2502 per 100 shares (4 mentions) minus commissions,

12) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .18.17.

13) CRON - Liguidated at 8.01. Averaged long at 11.52. Loss on the trade of $702 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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