Issue #648 ![]() December 1, 2019 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Jobs Report Much Better Than Expected. Bulls Rejoice With Rally!
DOW Friday closing price - 28015
The indexes ended up the week with small weekly closing losses in the DOW (by 159 points) and the NASDAQ (by 9 points) and a small new all-time high weekly close in the SPX (by 5 points). Nonetheless, the closes do not address the high volatility seen this week as shown by the VIX that had a low at 12.55 and a high of 17.99. The DOW generated a trading range of 690 points, the SPX of 80 points and the NASDAQ of 227 points and when compared to the average trading range seen the past 4 weeks of 405 points, 37 points and 122 points (respectively), the indexes more than doubled their trading ranges this past week. This was all due to ISM Index report on Monday and Trump's statement on Tuesday that the trade agreement would not likely to happen until after the election that caused the indexes to drop and then on Thursday, Trump's announcement was negated by statements that the agreement was close to signing and then on Friday by a blowout Jobs report that suggested the economy is doing very well, which in turn caused the indexes to rally. In the end though, the traders remain uneasy as the economic reports (ISM Index and Jobs) clashed with each other and the trade agreement remains a possibility but not necessarily a "done deal", given that 2 months ago it was supposed to be ready to be "sealed and delivered" but the package has not yet arrived.
The Jobs report did come in "gangbusters" and with the bulls being in control for the past 10 weeks, the probabilities continue to favor the bulls and higher prices. The only obstacle to higher prices at this time (December) lies exclusively with the trade agreement as otherwise there are no fundamental reasons to short the market. This coming week has no economic reports of consequence that could be catalytic. On Wednesday, CPI report comes out and on Friday Retail Sales. Nonetheless, in the past few months neither of these reports have had much of an impact and as such, expected to remain non-catalytic this week. The schedule for the trade agreement to be finalized has not been established, meaning that the traders continue to be faced with an unpredictable event that could happen any day. This, and the fact that December is normally a slow month with small movement will likely keep them at bay this week. The only possible catalytic event on the immediate horizon is the December 15th scheduled raise of tariffs on China. That would certainly be a catalyst either way. Unfortunately and for this week, Trump's action to withdraw or keep the new tariffs will not be known until next Sunday, meaning that will not be a factor this week.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis and in all the indexes, there are no resistance levels of any consequence above in any of the indexes.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, last week's lows are now considered pivotal given that they are were spikes and from which a positive reversal occurred, at least in the SPX. In the DOW last week's low was 27325, in the SPX it was 3070 and in the NASDAQ it was 8435. Below that, there is no support of consequence until the previous all-time high weekly closes are reached (DOW at 27332, SPX at 3025 and NASDAQ at 8336).
The indexes all closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs are expected to be seen this week. In the DOW above 28109, in the SPX above 3150 and in the NASDAQ above 8672. The all-time intraweek highs are found at 28174, at 3154, and at 8705, respectively. Those highs will be seen as possible resistance but given the trading range last week, the close near the highs of the week, and the fundamentally positive nature of the Jobs report, those levels are unlikely to act as effective resistance. By the same token, it will be a pivot point for the traders on Monday because if not able to go above them (as is expected), additional doubts will surface. That will be the attention point for Monday. A failure to get above those levels and a red daily close on Monday will shift back the edge to the bears.
Probabilities favor the bulls this week with no clear objective to the upside.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The market at this moment is moving exclusively on economic news and more so on the probability of an agreement on the trade war between U.S. and China. Charts have been mostly ineffective during this time as they have not been dependable in this fundamental yo-yo scenario. I do not see this changing this month. In addition, there has been clear indications that this situation is only helping the big (and expensive) companies as most small companies have been going down. This is clearly shown in the disparity between the RUT and the SPX where the RUT is still 7% below its all-time high and the SPX is 4% above its previous all-time high. In simple words and at this time, this is a rich-man's market that can only be played on the long side by buying expensive stocks that offer low gains but have big risk. With the high possibility that any negative piece of news could make stocks plummet (such as a failure to seal the deal with China on the trade agreement), it means this market is not playable now.
As such, I have no new mentions at this time and probably won't have any for the rest of December, unless there is some new on the trade front. As it is, December has never been a good month to trade or even to put on longer term positions as the beginning of the year brings about a lot of economic information and high participation by hedge and institutional investors. January will likely be a good month to trade. December is not.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low but then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 48.55 will be seen this week. What is more important is if the stock does go above last week's high, last week's low at 44.94 will become the necessary/required retest of the recent 10-month low at 43.09. In addition, a bullish inverted Head & Shoulders formation will have been built and the neckline broken if that occurs, which in turn would offer an upside objective of 57.02. By the same token, resistance of consequence is found on a weekly closing basis at 50.93 and on an intraweek basis at the 200-day MA, currently at 51.50. Either way, the bulls presently have a small edge and this week should be a positive one for the stock. Likely pivotal support is now found at last week's low at 44.94. AU made a new 4-month weekly closing low on Friday, given the better than expected Jobs report that caused money to go back into stocks and away from Gold. Gold did break a resistance level early in the week but then reversed and negated the breakout with the news. Nonetheless, Gold maintained itself above pivotal daily close support at 1460.80 and that left the door open for recovery this week if the expected rush to buy stocks does not occur. The stock stayed above a minor but somewhat important weekly close support at 18.44, also leaving the door open for recovery. By the same token, the signs in the charts of Gold and the stock are leaning negative and therefor the bulls need help to negate that action last week or further downside of some consequence is likely to occur. Evidently, the recent intraweek double bottom at 18.04 is pivotal. If broken or even seen, the probabilities of a break will increase strongly with a drop down to the $14-$15 level as the likely objective. A drop down to 18.56 is expected to be seen but that would not be seen as a negative. There is a triple high between 20.20 and 20.23 that if broken would give back control to the bulls. Probabilities slightly favor the bears given that strength of the Jobs report but by the end of Monday that whole scenario will be a lot clearer. COF made a new 21-month intraweek and weekly closing high, leaving open air above for a rally up to the all-time high at 106.50. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 101.84 will be seen this week. There is no reason to hold on to the short positions as the chart and the fundamentals of the market call for higher prices. Nonetheless and as I said on Friday, holding on to the positions over the weekend made sense given that the same (or lower) exit prices could be achieved this week. Like with the indexes, Monday is important because if follow through is seen in the indexes (most likely), the stock is highly likely to reach the all-time high. The stock did gap up between 100.25 and 100.65 on Friday and if it does not gap up on Monday, that gap will be a magnet to be closed. Evidently, a red daily close on Monday would open the door for the bears, especially if below 99.70. Otherwise, covering of the short positions is the recommended action. CRON generated an uneventful week but did go below the previous week's low, opening the door for a potential needed/required retest of the recent 6.04 low. A rally above last week's high at 7.00 would generate that signal. The stock closed exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning there was no clue on Friday's close as to what the traders are looking to do this week. The chart spanning the last 2 years still suggests that the stock is in a trading range between $6 and $8 and for the reason alone, I would venture to say that the probabilities this week favor the bulls. Nonetheless, the trend is still down and therefore more action is needed before any short-term direction can be determined. Pivotal resistance is found at 8.05. Pivotal support at 6.04. Probabilities continue to suggest that the stock will trade between $6 and $8 for a few weeks and therefore nothing of consequence is likely to happen until after the New Year. ENG failed to follow through to last week's rally and new 14-week weekly closing high, having once again closed below the 1.06 level that had been resistance for the same period of time. The stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.02 will be seen this week. By the same token, the recent 7-week intraweek low at .78 (weekly closing low at .96) has not yet been tested successfully and now that the stock went below last week's low, if a recovery occurs this week above last week's high at 1.12, that will occur and give the bulls new ammunition. Nonetheless, that is not a high probability this week, suggesting more base building and sideways trading is likely to occur. A weekly close below .96 or a daily close below .85 would be a negative. Probabilities favor more of the same as seen recently. FNV made a new all-time intraweek high at the beginning of the week but then with the Jobs report coming in better than expected and Gold dropping, the bulls were unable to keep the stock up and a negative reversal week occurred. Nonetheless and even though the stock traded below the most recent low weekly close at 96.96, the bulls were able to close above that level (closed at 97.06) suggesting the door remains open for recovery if the bulls in the indexes are not able to make new highs this coming week. There is intraweek support at 96.23 but given that the stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 96.26 is expected to be seen, it is likely that the stock will go down on Monday, perhaps as low at 94.59. What is important on Monday is the close as a close below 96.92 will generate a new sell signal as well as a failure signal, opening the door for a drop down to $90-$92. Like with Gold, AU, and the indexes, Monday is pivotal. GS generated a positive reversal week and a new 13-month intraweek and weekly closing high. The stock closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 225.40 will be seen this week. There is no resistance above until 234.06 so if follow through is seen on both the intraweek and daily closing basis, that would be the first target. Nonetheless and like with the indexes and Gold, Monday is important on a daily closing basis. There was a triple top on the daily closing chart so from that point of view, the break of resistance was likely to occur but as is the case all the time, confirmation of the breakout is needed, meaning that another daily close above 222.95 is required on Monday for the bulls to gain confidence this breakout is real. If the stock closes on Monday below 222.95, the bears will get new ammunition. Probabilities favor the bulls but the bulls must prove their ability to follow through. SRUTF generated another red weekly close, the 7th in a row and the 16th out of the past 18 weeks. In addition, a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing low occurred, suggesting the bears remain in full control. There has been no new news in the Cannabis industry and chart-wise the stock is in a severe downtrend with no end yet in sight. There is very minor resistance at .20 and then nothing until .254 is reached, meaning that if the stock goes above those levels a signal that a bottom has been found will occur. Probabilities continue to favor the bears.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.03. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.81 (new price (48.06). 3) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .02615. 4) COF - Averaged short at 91.73 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 101.38. 5) GS - Averaged short at 220.35. Stop loss at 224.87. Stock closed on Friday at 224.61. 6) FNV - Averaged long at 90.15 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 96.13. Stock closed on Friday at 97.06. 7) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.71. 8) AU - Averaged long at 19.205 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.77. 9) CLB - Liquidated at 45.11. Averaged long at 45.455. Loss on the trade of $67 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions. 10) ARNA - Averaged long at 48.36 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 48.06. 11) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .16.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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