Issue #639 ![]() December 1, 2019 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bulls Remain in Control as News from Trade Agreement is Awaited!
DOW Friday closing price - 28051
The indexes all negated the previous week's negative reversal, to once again make new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs. In addition, they did close near the highs of the week, suggesting more upside above last week's highs will be seen this week. The continuing talk about "the Phase 1 agreement with China is getting closer to being done" remained the only reason for the rally, given that there were no catalytic economic reports announced anywhere. The SPX appreciated 3.3% in November and that is the highest rally for the month of November in a decade (usually Novembers have been a down month). The indexes have now generated a green weekly close in 7 of the last 8 weeks and seen higher lows than the previous week for 9 straight weeks and as long as the "bait" of a trade agreement is being dangled, that trend will continue.
This coming week though, does have some possible economic reports catalysts that could extend the rally, slow it down, or perhaps even stop it. The ISM Index report comes out on Monday at 10:00 am and it is expected to come out at 49.2. Last month it was 48.3 and for the past 3 months it has been under 50, which is the dividing line between growth and contraction of the economy. Another number under 50 will be seen as a negative and if under 48.3 even more so. By the same token, any number above 50 will give the bulls' new ammunition. With interest rates right now on pause for the near term, positive economic reports will help the bulls and vice versa. On Friday, the Jobs report comes out and it is expected to be at 190k. Last month was 128k but it was higher than the expected 80k and therefore the indexes rallied. This month the opposite could happen due to the high expectation. Nonetheless, if it does meet expectations (or higher), the indexes would rally as well. On the other side of the coin, traders are totally keyed on the trade agreement, meaning that these reports may not help decide anything other than perhaps a very short term rally or drop.
The SPX has now rallied 4.1% above the previous weekly closing high, meaning it has surpassed the "general" rally amount of 3% above a previous all-time high before a retest of the previous high is seen. This does suggest the index is overdone to the upside given that there has not been any economic news that would support the index having extended the rally by such a degree. One additional thing to consider is that the VIX made a new 7-month intraweek low this week and got down close to the intraweek low seen in April at 11.03 (got down to 11.43 this past week) and then reversed to close green and above last week's green close at 12.34, confirming the successful retest of the 12.06 low weekly close seen 3 weeks ago. It must be noted that the 11.03 level was the low for the past 15 months, meaning that the VIX is now down to levels where some correction to the upside is likely to be seen. During the past 22 months, the index has not generated a weekly closing low below 11.64 and shows a total of 12 weekly closes between that level and 12.39, meaning this area is proven to be a strong support level. With the index now showing 2 green weekly closes in a row above the most recent low weekly close at 12.06, having closed at 12.34 the previous week and at 12.66 on Friday, in spite of the new all-time highs made in the indexes, it does suggest that this is a sign that this coming week the indexes will start heading lower.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis and in all the indexes, there are no resistance levels in any of the indexes.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the previous week's lows are short-term pivotal support. In the DOW at 27675, in the SPX at 3091 and in the NASDAQ at 68. Below that, there is no support of consequence until the previous all-time high weekly closes are reached (DOW at 27332, SPX at 3025 and NASDAQ at 8336).
With December now starting and it normally being a small range trading month but a positive one, if profits for the year are to be taken by the traders, it will probably occur over the next 2 weeks. Thereafter, the holiday period means less participation and few decisions being made as traders put off decisions until the New Year. With several important economic reports this week and nothing expected to be announced on the trade front, the traders are likely to use these reports to either take profits or make the decision to stay long until the trade deal announcement is made. As such, I do expect to see movement and some volatility this week, starting Monday right after the ISM Index report comes out.
I do believe the probabilities favor the bears this week as the economic reports are not likely to be "better than expected" and a retest of the previous all-time high weekly closes in the indexes would be the smart thing to do as that way the bulls could start next year with a support level of consequence (previous all-time high weekly closes) having been established. If that does not happen, it would make the index market a whole lot more risky for the bulls at the beginning of the year, suggesting that a big correction would be seen at the start of the year, as Bridgewater Fund suggested would be seen by March.
Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but if that does not happen, probabilities will increase in favor of the bears for the beginning of next year.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week as nothing was decided in the index market this past week. The stocks that had individual stories were given as mentions last week and instituted and I was not able to find any new ones this weekend. Nonetheless, this week there are economic reports of consquence coming out with the ISM Index number being reported at 10:00 am on Monday. If that report generates movement in one direction or the other, I am ready to give mentions in the message board. Nevertheless, the probabilities do not favor that happening as the traders continue to await trade agreement news.
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Updates
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Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2019, as of 10/1 Profit of $15789 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for November per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
COF (short) $1488 CRON (short) $191 Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. DD (short) $212 Total Profit for November, per 100 shares and after commissions $1891 Closed out losing trades for November per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
MDT (short) $164
Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.
DIS (short) $1385 Total Loss for October, per 100 shares, including commissions $1698 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 11/30
CRON (long) $13
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
FNV (long) $540
ENG (long) $88 Total $641 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 11/30
GS (short) $202
CLB (long) $331 Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
AU (long) $1216 Total $4493 Status of trades for month of October per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Loss of $3659
Status of account/portfolio for 2019, as of 11/30Profit of $12130 using 100 shares traded per mention.
ARNA generated an uneventful week but kept the mini recovery intact with another green close. The stock is presently in an $8 trading range between 43.09 and 51.63 that is not likely to be broken until some company or index catalyst occurs. Stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 46.55 than above last week's high at 49.78.
AU got down to the 16-week low at 18.04 with a low at the same price this past week and then generated a bounce to close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 19.18 will be seen this week. Gold did generate a successful retest of the recent low daily close at $1457, having closed at $1460 on Tuesday and then followed by two green closes in a row. By the same token, no resistances to the upside were broken either, suggesting that gold will trade sideways until the beginning of the New Year. The same is likely true with AU, with a probably trading range between 18.55 and 21.16 for the next 4 weeks. A drop below 18.04 or a weekly close above 22.14 would alter that scenario but neither is likely to happen. CLB saw selling come in due to the strong drop in price on oil on Friday, likely because of the resignation of the Iraqi's prime minister which is believed will result in increased production in that country. The stock did hit the stop loss point at 43.55 with an intraday drop down to 43.41 on Friday. With the drop below 43.65, a short-term sell signal was given that opens the door for a drop down to the 42.00 level. Nonetheless and using the weekly chart, the action this past week has not changed the chart at all, meaning that it is still in a recovery rally. The stock would need to break below 40.39 to change the midterm trend to further downside. The oil chart does suggest further downside this week with a potential for another $2.30 cents lower, which in turn would likely cause CLB to drop down to the 42.00 level. Nonetheless, the oil chart also suggests some recovery back up to $57 will be seen before the end of the year, also suggesting that CLB will rally back up to the mid 47's. As such and with the close on Friday at 43.80, the risk for the next 5 weeks is about $1.80 to the downside and $3.70 cents to the upside (about 2-1 risk/reward ratio). You will need to make the decision whether it makes sense to hold on to the positions or not. I will probably hold. COF made a new 14-month intraweek and weekly closing high, breaking the decent and likely indicative weekly closing resistance at 98.09. Nonetheless, the stock shows a mountain of resistance between 100.55 and 101.67 that is highly unlikely to be broken during the next 5 weeks unless there is news that takes the indexes higher. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, drops down to 94.70 could be seen, meaning that off of Friday's close at 100.01, there is recovery potential of about $5 with further risk of about $1.50, suggesting to me that a better exit point can be found during the next few week. Nonetheless, the new 14-month high does change the chart and no longer is a short position supported by it, meaning covering of shorts (at some point) is now the "thing to do". CRON was unable to extend the possible recovery seen the previous week, having generated a red weekly close on Friday. It was not a negative sign but then again not a positive sign either, as the bulls would liked to have seen. The stock did close near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 6.61 is expected to be seen this week. If that does occur and then the stock recovers to close green next Friday, the required/necessary retest of the recent low at 6.04 will have occurred and buying as seen 3 weeks ago would then likely be seen again. Nonetheless, the stock is still in a strong downtrend and the probabilities continue to favor the bears until such a time that the bulls can break some resistance levels and make a statement. Pivotal resistance is found at 8.05. Pivotal support at 6.04. Probabilities continue to suggest that the stock will trade between $6 and $8 for a few weeks and therefore nothing of consequence is likely to happen until after the New Year. ENG generated a new but small buy signal on Friday, having made a new 10-week weekly closing high above 1.06. In addition and for the 3rd time in the last 4 weeks and on an intraweek basis, the stock got up to (or above) the 200-week MA, currently at 1.16, suggesting that it is only a matter of time before that line is broken. Since that line has not been broken to the upside since April 2017, a break of that line would be of consequence and likely followed by a strong short-covering rally. Pivotal support remains at the 200-day MA, currently at .90. Probabilities favor the bulls with the only question being "when the breakout will occur". FNV remained supported, having made a new 2-week low but then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 98.74 will be seen this week. With the stock closing on Friday at 98.32, last week's mini failure signal of closing below the previous high weekly close at 97.66 was negated and with the all-time high weekly close at 99.04, it does suggest a new all-time high weekly close could be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 101.19 and at 100.70. Short term pivotal support is now found at 96.23. Stop losses can now be raised to 96.13 because if 96.23 is broken, a drop down to the $92 level would likely occur. Probabilities favor the bulls. GS failed to break the decent intraweek resistance at 224.77, having made a high this past week at 224.28 but then closing near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 220.41 will be seen this week. If that occurs, the necessary/required retest of that high will have occurred and occurred on a week that the indexes extended their rally in a strong way, suggesting that the specific reasons for the stock not heading higher (shown last week) are valid and likely to hold up. Pivotal support remains at 116.40 but any drop below last week's low will now be seen as a clear sign that the stock is not likely to continue its uptrend and that a decent correction is about to occur, likely starting in the New Year. Stops should be maintained at 224.87. Probabilities favor the bears. SRUTF generated another red weekly close, the 6th in a row and the 15th out of the past 17 weeks. Nonetheless and for the first time in the last 7 weeks, the stock rallied above the previous week's high and stayed above the previous week's low, possibly suggesting that the selling interest is waning. There was no news in the Cannabis industry and it remains without any tangible reason to buy at this time. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning there is no clear sign of direction for this coming week. There is very minor resistance at .20 and then nothing until .254 is reached, meaning that if the stock goes above last week's high and gets up to the .25 level, a rally of approximately 60% from the low will have occurred and such a rally would be a strong sign of a bottom having been established. The stock got down to .16 on Tuesday and Wednesday and then generated a rally and green daily close on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside. A rally above last week's high at .189 would be a small positive. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.11. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.74 (new price (47.38). 3) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0315. 4) COF - Averaged short at 91.73 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 100.01. 5) GS - Shorted at 222.14. Averaged short at 220.35. Stop loss at 224.87. Stock closed on Friday at 221.35. 6) FNV - Averaged long at 90.15 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 96.13. Stock closed on Friday at 98.32. 7) CRON - Purchased at 6.91 and at 6.67. Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.84. 8) AU - Averaged long at 19.205 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.04. 9) CLB - Purchased at 45.67 and 45.24. Averaged long at 45.455 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 43.80. 10) ARNA - Averaged long at 48.36 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 47.38. 11) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .172.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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