Issue #654 ![]() January 26, 2020 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
|
Bulls Fail to keep the Runaway Train moving Forward. End of Run?
DOW Friday closing price - 28989
The runaway rally came to a halt this week, with the indexes having generated a red weekly close. The halt could end up being indicative given that both the SPX and the NASDAQ generated a negative reversal week (having made new all-time highs and then closing red) and then closing near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows will be seen this week. Negative reversal weeks from new all-time highs have occurred twice before in the past 17 weeks but were reversed back to the upside the following week but on the two previous occasions, the indexes had closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting no follow through to the downside would be seen the following week. This week was different as the closes were near the lows of the week, suggesting this negative reversal is likely to break the pattern.
Nonetheless, earnings are still a big key to what the market does this coming week and with the bulk of important earnings reports coming out, such as AAPL, AMZN, FB, GE, CAT, HON, MCD, 3M, BA and T reporting this week and as such, many questions will be answered before the close next Friday. In addition, there are a few economic reports this week that also have some importance, such as Durable Goods, Housing information, and Consumer Confidence, which all are due out Tuesday morning. By the same token, earnings have been coming out generally better than expected and expectation that the results of the earnings due out this week are still that they will be better than expected, meaning that last week's negative reversal has no valid reason to have happened, other than perhaps "buyer exhaustion", which is likely to be the reason that causes the indexes to correct at this time. Economic reports have generally been ignored though mostly negative so the traders are likely to ignore these as well unless they come out much better than expected (unlikely), which in turn would give the bull's new ammunition.
The Fed does announce their rate decision on Wednesday, which would be the first of the year. It is not likely to have any benefit or consequence to the market as it is not expected they will do anything or announce any change of thinking as nothing has happened since their last FOMC meeting to cause them to consider any changes. Nonetheless, the traders are also likely to wait until the report is out (Wednesday at 2:00 pm) to make any decisions. As such, the first couple of days of trading for the week are likely to be somewhat volatile but with a slight bearish bias.
No economic or earnings reports of consequence are due out at the beginning of the week as the first report of consequence is AAPL, which reports on Tuesday after the close. As such, the indexes should follow chart guidelines for the first 2 days of the week and that likely means further downside and below last week's lows will be seen on Monday and some on Tuesday.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the indexes now show resistance at the recent all-time highs (DOW at 28373, SPX at 3337 and NASDAQ at 9451).
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the same levels as reported the past 3 weeks remain in place. There is short-term pivotal support In the DOW at 28376 and then nothing until 27804 is reached. In the SPX there is short-term pivotal support at 3212, very minor support at 3191 and then nothing until 3126. In the NASDAQ there is short-term pivotal support at 8909 and then nothing until 8600.
The indexes all generated negative reversal "days" on Friday and that is a big key to the traders, especially when the NASDAQ generated a "key" reversal, having made its new all-time high at 9451 on Friday and then closing below the previous day's low at 9334. This key reversal is a strong indicative chart sign that always sees follow through the following day, meaning that Monday is likely to be a bearish day, at least at the beginning of the day. In the case of the DOW and the SPX, if they do go below Friday's lows on Monday, they will then be showing a successful retest of the all-time highs (in the DOW at 29288 and in the SPX at 3333) which does strengthen the idea that a top to this rally has been made and that a correction is to follow.
It is evident by last week's action (that had no catalyst to have caused it) that the burden of proof this week is on the shoulders of the bulls. The runaway freight train has come to a stop and the indexes are overbought and way above any "normal" technical rally objectives above a previous all-time high. The bulls will need earnings and economic reports that are positively "catalytic" to reverse what happened this week and that is a low probability, meaning that it is now highly likely that a correction has begun. More importantly, there are no established support levels nearby given that this rally has gone on for 17 weeks without any support of consequence built and the risk/reward ratio for the bulls is negative to the nth degree. The opposite is now true for the bears given the reversal week seen in both the daily and weekly chart means that there is now "some" established resistance above at the all-time highs.
I do believe that the bears will be the winners this week and that the market is now ready to correct trying to find support below from which they can buy again. That level (objective) is likely to be the previous all-time high weekly closes (DOW at 27337, SPX at 3025 and NASDAQ at 8330) and a correction down to those levels would suggest a correction of anywhere between 7% (DOW) to as much as 12% (NAZ).
The only earnings report of consequence that is not scheduled this week is GOOGL, that reports a week from Monday, and that means that most of the earnings reports of consequence for the quarter will be out. It does need to be mentioned that the following week, the ISM Index and JOBS reports come out and even if the reports this week do not generate resumption of the rally, the traders could wait until the following week and those reports coming out before "committing themselves" to a correction.
Probabilities favor the bears this week.
|
Stock Analysis/Evaluation
|
CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week as once again the traders will wait to see how the earnings reports come out. Nonetheless, this week is likely the last week where chart direction questions remain, meaning that next week's newsletter will have a slew of new mentions given.
|
Updates
|
Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA made a new 9 month weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 43.40 will be seen this week. The chart continues to be tilted in favor of the bears, being in a downtrend channel that suggests the pivotal support at 43.09 will be broken this week and a drop down to the bottom of the channel (around 42.00) will be seen. The company does not report earnings for another 4 weeks and chart-wise the downtrend channel is clearly defined and likely to the fulfilled. The next support below 43.09 is the double low built in March of last year at 42.65 and 42.48. That double low is likely to be strong enough to hold further selling and generate a rally back up to the $46-$47 level (top of the channel) but if broken, there is no support below until the $35 level is reached, which is also where the 200-week MA is presently located. It is evident at this time by the consistent lower highs seen on the rallies that the bears have the edge and given that there is nothing in the immediate future that can be a positive catalyst, the probabilities favor the bears. The stock does have some sensitivity to the index market and if the index market is ready to begin a correction (as stated above), it would also help the bears with the stock. As the chart stands right now, the outlook is for the stock to get down to the $35 level sometime in the next month or two. Pivotal resistance is now found at 47.70 that if broken, the chart outlook and present pattern (down channel) would be negated. AU generated a positive reversal this week, having made a new 4-week low and then turning around to close in the green and near the top of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 21.09 will be seen this week. This week is important and possibly pivotal given that Gold closed at a very pivotal level at $1571.40 that has been seen on 4 previous occasions between 2011 and 2013 as either an important low or an important high weekly and monthly close. Gold closed on Friday at 1571.90 and with this week Friday being a monthly close as well, it will be highly indicative if the bulls are able to generate a green or red close next Friday. A green weekly would open the door for Gold to continue up above the $1700 and perhaps even test the all-time high at $1873. The stock has not acted as well as Gold has over the past few weeks and if Gold closes red next Friday and starts heading lower, the stock will do the same. The opposite is also true as the stock would then likely have the 200-month MA, currently at 28.50 as the objective. Unfortunately and as far as making decisions this week, nothing should be done until Friday or until Gold itself shows weakness as Friday nears. Likely upside objective for the stock this week is the 21.50-21.74 area as there is resistance there. If those resistance levels are broken, a rally to the next resistance at 22.93 would then likely be seen. By the same token, if Gold can get above the $1613 level that was seen on January 7, then new highs for the stock above 23.85 will likely be seen. The $20 demilitarized zone is now pivotal support. I would venture to guess that the probabilities favor the bulls but it is evident this week is strongly pivotal, meaning the probabilities are probably 50-50 for both bulls and bears, COF generated a failure signal on the daily closing chart, having made a new all-time high daily close but then closing below the previous all-time high on Friday. In addition, the breakout was not confirmed on the weekly closing chart, with the stock having closed below the two previous high weekly closes at 104.37 and 105.43. The stock still closed in the green, leaving the door open for further upside this week but the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 102.19 than above last week's high at 107.59. With the stock having reported better than expected earning and making a new all-time intraweek and daily closing high but then failing to confirm either of those, the edge now goes back to the bears. By the same token and with the stock being sensitive to the index market, direction this week will likely be based on what the index market does. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 99.83 that if broken would cause a drop down to at least 96.63. Resistance will now be found at 105.70 and at 106.50. Probabilities slightly favor the bears. CRON generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 12-week high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 7.51 will be seen. Nonetheless, the weekly close breakout above the 7.28 level nor the daily close breakout above 7.63 level were negated, suggesting this drop is only likely to be a retest of the breakout in order to confirm that the breakout is valid. There is no intraweek support of consequence until the 6.50-6.79 level is reached but on a daily closing basis, the stock should generate a green close on Monday, which would confirm the daily close breakout at 7.63. Intraday resistance is now found at the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 8.30 that if broken and confirmed will bring in new buying interest. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. CVGW generated an inside week and a close in the green and slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week' high at 81.49 and below last week's low at 79.60. By the same token, it can be said that the bulls were the winners last week as the stock had closed near the lows of the week the previous week but no follow through was seen. On a very positive note, the stock now shows a successful retest of the 12-year 200-week MA, currently at 78.90, as well as a successful retest of the 2-point 3-year uptrend line at 78.50 that has now become a 3-point line and much more dependable. If all of this is confirmed this week with another green weekly close next Friday, strong chart buying interest is likely to be seen. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 81.64 that if broken would likely cause the stock to move up to at least the 84.00 level. By the same token, a break of that resistance would be a strong positive sign at this time. Pivotal support is found at 78.56 that if broken would be a decent to possibly strong sign of weakness. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG continued to trade in the now 4-month trading range between .96 and 1.11 levels (based on weekly closes) without giving any sign of a breakout or breakdown on the horizon. The company does not report earnings for another 2 weeks, suggesting more of the same will continue to be seen. On a weekly closing basis, pivotal support is found at .90 and resistance at 1.11. With the stock closing at .099 on Friday, there is no indication of either one likely to be broken this week. Probabilities favor another uneventful week this week. FNV generated yet another (4 of the past 5 weeks) new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 110.46 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the upside objective of this most recent breakout was the $110-$111 level and given that Gold has a very important pivotal week ahead (explained above in the AU comment), attention to the action of the stock this coming is of utmost importance because if Gold shows any weakness, consideration to taking profits on the stock should be given. By the same token, Gold traders are not likely to start making any decision until late in the week, so the same situation applies to the stock. Any red weekly close in Gold below last week's close at 1571.40 would be a strong sign to take profits in the stock. On the other side of the coin, a green weekly close in Gold would suggest additional upside will be seen in the stock. Minor intraweek pivotal support is found at 107.30 that if broken would open the door for a drop down to all-time high daily close at 103.88. To the upside, there is no resistance at this time other than the chart objective off of the most recent breakout, which is the $110-$111 level that has already been reached. Probabilities remain in favor of the bulls but careful attention to the action should be given this week. GS bulls failed to generate follow through to the upside off of the previous week's close on the high of the week and generated a red week with a close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 240.60 will be seen this week. There is minor to even perhaps decent intraweek support between 239.19 and 239.29 that if broken would open the door for a drop down to 233.55 and perhaps even to 229.49. Intraday support from the 60-minute chart is found at the 200 60-minute MA, currently at 236.60, which would likely be seen if 239.19 is broken. Pivotal resistance is now found at 246.69 that is broken would likely negate all the weakness seen this past week. Nonetheless and in the overall chart outlook, the bears did not accomplish anything of consequence this past week as the chart suggests this weakness might be simply a retest of the weekly close breakout at 237.81. Probabilities do favor a drop down to that level on a weekly closing basis but other than that, additional negatives (such as the indexes getting into a correction of consequence) need to occur for the stock to go below that weekly close breakout. Probabilities favor the bears this week. IBM reported better than expected earnings and rallied 4.6% on the news the day after. Nonetheless, by the end of the week most of the gains were given back with the stock only closing 1.6% above the previous week's close. The stock closed on the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 137.60 than above last week's high at 145.56. If that occurs, last week's high will become a spike high successful retest of the 6-month high at 147.35 and the 6th lower high made over the past 3 years, keeping the stock clearly in a long-term downtrend. Every previous spike high successful retest has created corrections of about 16% on average with the smallest correction being 12.5% and the largest being 32%. Using the average and if the successful retest of the trend line is confirmed, it would suggest a downside objective of $122, to be reached in a period of 4-8 weeks. It is important to note that last week's high is an area of resistance that has been tested successfully on 3 other occasions during this past year and every time it happened, a drop of $15-$20 occurred. The stock closed on the low of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be below Friday's low at 140.46. The stock did gap up right after the earnings report from a high of 139.35 and closure of the gap is likely to be seen on Monday. The 200-day MA is currently at 137.95 and that line is highly likely to be tested before any bounce occurs. If all of that occurs, the 139.16 level will become minor to perhaps decent resistance. Short-term pivotal support is found at 134.77 that if broken, the bears will gain full control again. If 139.16 would then be broken to the upside, the $142 level will become indicative resistance. Probabilities favor the bears. SGMO made a new 49-week low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 7.39 will be seen this week. The chart formation offers an overall 4.73 downside objective but a short-term downside intraweek objective of 6.52 before a bounce occurs. On a weekly close basis, there is minor to decent support between 7.07 and 7.20 that has 3 important closes (2 to the upside and one to the downside) over a period of 1 year back in 2016/2017 that is likely to be difficult to break at this time, at least not without a bounce occurring first. Nonetheless, this break has weakened the chart substantially and it is likely that a positive fundamental piece of news is required to negate the bearish break that occurred. The earnings report is not due out for another 5 weeks so that is not something the bulls can count on. The stop loss at 7.60 was triggered on Friday and unless the stock can get above and close above 8.03 on Friday, the positions should be liquidated. Probabilities favor the bears. SRUTF traded once again in the same trading range it has been in for the past 38 trading days (between .14 and .165) with no sign of whether a breakout or a breakdown of this trading range is in the immediate horizon. Bulls have been unable to generate any buying of consequence and the stock remains under bear control. The stock did close on Friday at the previous all-time weekly closing low at .147 and if the bulls can generate a green close next Friday, a double bottom would be created on the weekly closing chart. By the same token, the stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at .147 is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at the recent all-time low at .133 so it is likely that level will be tested this week. One of the reasons for the weakness is that the Cannabis industry saw general weakness this week but using CRON as a guideline, it is likely that CRON will generate a green close next Friday and if that happens, the stock is likely to do the same. As such, I would venture to say that this week could be a pivotal week, at least for the short-term.
|
1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .99. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.45 (new price (44.51). 3) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .038. 4) COF - Averaged short at 91.73 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 104.30. 5) GS - Short at 248.04. Averaged short at 233.17 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 241.92. 6) FNV - Averaged long at 90.15 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 96.13. Stock closed on Friday at 110.31. 7) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.58. 8) AU - Averaged long at 19.205 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.98. 9) SGMO Averaged long at 8.11 (2 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.50. 10) ARNA - Averaged long at 48.36 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 44.51. 11) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .1474. 12) IBM - Shorted at 134.11. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 140.56. 13) AGCO - Liquidated at 72.48. Averaged long at 74.995. Loss on the trade of $503 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions. 14) CVGW - Averaged long at 82.83 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 78.46. Stock closed on Friday at 80.82. 15) GS - Shorted at 248.04. Covered shorts at 245.10. Profit on the trade of $296 per 100 shares minus commissions. 16) AGCO - Purchased at 73.39. Liquidated at 73.03. Loss on the trade of $36 per 100 shares plus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
|
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
![]() |
|
|