Issue #651
January 5, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Trump's Attack on Iran has Possibly Changed the Fundamental Picture!

DOW Friday closing price - 28634
SPX Friday closing price - 3234
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 9030

The DOW and the SPX> generated a negative reversal week, having made new all-time intraweek highs but then closing red on Friday. Nonetheless, the reversal week in those indexes was not confirmed by the NASDAQ that closed green and in the upper half of the week's trading range. By the same token, all the negative action that occurred this week happened on Friday when the news came out that Trump had ordered the killing of the Iran general and there was not enough time for the traders to evaluate the consequences of that action or the possible repercussions that it might have, meaning that the index closes on Friday are not necessarily indicative of anything.

On the other side of the coin and largely ignored by the traders due to explosive news of the action against Iran, the ISM Index report on Friday came in lower than anticipated and at an 11-year low and that is a negative fundamental sign given that it is now 4 months in a row that manufacturing has been in a contracting market, meaning that growth is negative and not positive. This is one more thing that the traders will be evaluating this weekend and likely means that the bulls have lost their momentum and that at least a correction is starting. As it is, a correction back down to test the previous all-time highs that got broken 2 months ago has been widely expected but not likely to occur during December as it is a month that normally is supported due to the low participation of traders and the lack of important economic reports.

Nonetheless, the action taken on Friday by the administration regarding the attack on the Iran general opens the door for much more than just some normal trading of peaks and valleys and retesting of support levels given that this action was an act of war upon a sovereign nation and some severe retaliation (repercussion) is likely to be seen, which in turn would disrupt the middle east to the point that has not been seen for many years. Increased loss of life and increased money outlay are but a couple of changes of fundamentals that will probably occur, meaning that the market will have to evaluate how much that will affect the economy and the future prospects for growth. Gold made a new 6-year weekly closing high and oil rallied over $2 on Friday and those are signs that generally work in opposite direction to the stock market.

Even before these events occurred, it was expected that the indexes would see a correction in January. As it is, there are a number of gaps below that are not supported by news that are magnets for closure and all likely to be closed/seen this coming month. In the DOW there are 2 gaps at 27745 and at 27524 that will be targeted, especially since the previous all-time high weekly close is at 27359. In the SPX there are 3 gaps at 3205, at 3119 and at 3094, with the previous all-time high being at 3025, and in the NASDAQ there are 4 gaps at 8888, at 8758, at 8588 and at 8523, with the previous all-time high weekly close being at 8336. All of these gaps are likely targets for closure if the bulls cannot continue upward this week.

Then again, none of this takes into consideration the continued drop in manufacturing of the probable retaliation by Iran, all of which are potential negative catalysts for even further downside than just a retest of the previous all-time high weekly closes, all of which cannot yet be evaluated with any certainty.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows resistance at 28701 and stronger at the all-time high at 28872. The SPX now shows resistance at 3247 and at the all-time high at 3258 and the NASDAQ now shows resistance at 9052 and at the all-time high at 9093.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, there is short-term pivotal support In the DOW at 28376 and then nothing until 27804 is reached. In the SPX there is short-term pivotal support at 3212, very minor support at 3191 and then nothing until 3126. In the NASDAQ there is short-term pivotal support at 8909 and then nothing until 8600.

As you can see by the support levels mentioned above, a break of the short term pivotal support areas would likely bring about a correction of least 6-7%, which does fit in with the 10% correction that is generally been expected to occur. Nonetheless, none of these downside objectives were based on the events/news that occurred this past week, meaning that kind of a correction could now be seen as a potential minimum rather than the max expected.

It is evident that December was a month that was overdone to the upside due to the holiday period and the announcement of the trade deal. Nonetheless, this coming week the Jobs report is due out on Friday and if less than expected (as the ISM Index report was) could immediately exacerbate the profit taking and new selling that is expected to be seen. I addition, on January 15, the details of the trade agreement will become public and that will allow the traders to better evaluate the positives or negatives of it. On the other side of the coin, earnings reports start coming out on January 14th and the first 3 weeks of any earnings quarter generally benefits the bulls. This year though, and considering the last 2 earnings quarters, it is not a high probability that it will benefit the bulls given the high prices in stocks being seen and the slowdown in the economy that has already started.

This coming week though, is likely to be a down week and perhaps a strong down week if some new attack is made by Iran and the short-term pivotal support levels are broken. It is difficult to see the bulls having much success but then again if it happens, it would likely be reflected in the NASDAQ that has been where the money has been flowing to (Tech Sector) and that closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, which automatically suggests a higher probability of a rally than a dip. Nonetheless, this week will be more about fundamentals than charts and the fundamental picture at this moment, is weak.

Probabilities favor the bears.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

Though there is still some uncertainty as how much the events this past week will affect the market negatively, two things did occur that makes a few stock mentions possible. The first thing is Gold having made a new 6-year weekly closing high and oil rallying over $3. Both of these events suggest that some inflation will occur because of it and stocks related to commodities are likely to rise. As such, mentions this week will all be purchases and in those areas. Additionally, it is the New Year and traders are now back trading and making decisions and with this year being highly important due to the election in November, and now the increased turmoil that will come from the Middle East regarding the killing of Iran's loved icon, there is going to be a lot of changes and action. As such, it is time to do some trading.

I was thinking about short positions once again but the buy dips mentality is still high and without knowing just how much the events from last week will change that mentality, shorting stocks is still risky and without much a high degree of probability. In addition, losses on short positions have been constant for the past few months and therefore I am not at this time prepared to give any new sell mentions. Nonetheless, the events mentioned above do open the door for either some industries continuing their recent rallies or for some depressed stocks, but in industries that are likely to now be stimulated, becoming a viable purchase with small risk and high profit potential. As such, I have 4 stocks I am mentioning this week, two of them in the energy sector and two of them in the agricultural sector. These 4 stocks offer decent risk/reward ratios as well as decent probability ratings.

AGCO Friday Closing Price - 77.14

AGCO manufactures and distributes agricultural equipment and related parts worldwide. It is a large and established company, much like CAT. The stock has been in an uptrend for the past 10 years from a low of 14.62 to the recent high at 81.39 seen just 6 weeks ago. The stock made a new all-time high at 73.77 in July 2017, above the previous all-time high weekly close at 68.94 but after making that all-time high the trade war with China began and for the past 30 months the stock has been all over the place because of the uncertainty but still with a bias to the upside with a new all-time high at 77.74 made in July and another new all-time high made at 80.13 in December. By the same token, every new all-time high made was followed by negation of the breakout, having then closed thereafter below the previous all-time high.

Nonetheless and with the trade agreement now done and favoring agricultural stocks, things should be more consistent and charts support levels more dependable, meaning that it seem to be a decent purchase at this time.

As has been the case repeatedly over the past couple of years, AGCO's new all-time high resulted in negation thereafter, given that the previous all-time daily closing high at 80.21 was broken the last week of November with a high at 80.68 but just a couple of days later the stock negated the breakout and proceeded to drop back down to the $75 level where support was found the second week of December. Since then, the stock traded back up to the $78 level and on Friday dropped down to 76.27, seemingly being a retest of the support at 75.16. The stock then proceeded to close on the high of the day on Friday and in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting that the news on Friday might have stimulated new buying interest that might result in a new all-time high being made, as has been the pattern the past few years.

The fundamentals of the company are strong, the uptrend consistent over the years, and the recent news supportive to the industry, suggesting it is a purchase at this time.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, AGCO minor resistance is found at 78.23, a little stronger and short-term pivotal at 78.96 and then decent at 80.64 and decent again at the all-time intraweek high at 81.39. As far as support is concerned, the stock shows visible and pivotal support at 75.16 that if broken would like cause the stock to drop down to the $72 level.

AGCO is an established big company where news does not affect the stock price all that much. Nonetheless, the stock has consistently made new all-time highs and the recent trade agreement with China that is specifically supportive of agricultural stocks, as well as the clearly evident and pivotal support at 75.16 does make a good case for a purchase with a new all-time high being the objective. The risk/reward ratio is not great but good enough for such a big and established company that will never react overly strongly to any kind of news.

Purchases of AGCO around the 77.00 level and using a stop loss at 75.06 and having at least an $84 objective, offers a 3.5-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

CLB Friday Closing Price - 40.09

CLB is an oil stock that has fallen greatly over the past 19 months from $130 to last week's low at 36.50. In August (20 weeks ago), it seemed that the stock had found a bottom at 36.61 given that the stock bounced up to the $52 level (52.13 to be exact). It is evident now that it was only a short-covering bounce as no further upside above that high was seen thereafter. Nonetheless, the stock was holding up well due to the appreciation being seen in oil and the stock was trading at the beginning of the week, just $4 below the $52 high (was trading at 48.40) with decent prospects of breaking the resistance and starting a new uptrend, when a downgrade occurred with a rating company called Stifel Nicolaus downgraded the stock from a $50 target down to a $40 target. The downgrade was mostly due to the company also downgrading their income outlook for the first quarter of this year. The downgrade caused the stock to drop 25% in value this past week.

The downgrade did affect the price but the drop only took the stock down to $.11 cents below the August low (36.61 and 36.50) and a bounce did occur on Thursday and Friday that caused the stock to rally back up $4 from the low, meaning that the stock closed at the projected downgrade price at $40 and though the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below 36.50 is a definite possibility this week, it is evident that buying interest is found at the $36.50 level and that a double bottom may now be in place.

Trading CLB at this time may (or may not) have a great profit potential but given that it is at a historical low price (these low levels not seen since 2009) and that oil is now likely to keep heading higher due to the turmoil in the middle east, and now with most (if not all) of the negative news out and already baked in to the current price, it does suggest the stock can be traded with a degree of certainty that the risk is minimal. What profit can be made is a bit of a question mark but the probability number of whether profits or losses will occur at this price favors the bulls and is high in favor of purchasing the stock. To the upside and on an intraweek basis, CLB shows very minor resistance at 42,20 and then nothing until the 45.75 to 46.30 level. Stronger resistance and the objective of this mention is found at the $47.50 level.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, CLB shows minor support at 38.14 and then decent support at the double bottom at 36.61/36.50 level.

Given the strong drop seen this week due to the downgrade, it is likely that at the very least a retest of the double bottom will occur. With support being found at 38.14, that level would be the most viable area and desired entry point for a purchase. The positives to the purchase are several 1) severely depressed stock when compared with the trading prices seen the past 10 years, 2) stock trading at the stock rating company's price at $40, 3) oil expected to rise due to the turmoil in the Middle East and 4) double bottom on the daily chart now confirmed.

The negatives to the purchase are 1) profit potential limited and to some degree unknown and 2) stock closed in the bottom half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside to be seen this week below stop loss point, making the probability rating on this trade low. Purchases of CLB around the 38.14-38.70 level and using a stop loss at 36.40 and having a 47.00 objective will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

CVGW Friday Closing Price - 87.98

CVGW is an agricultural company that keys on growing Avocados, which have become known as one of the healthiest foods available. The amount of interest in that industry continues to grow day by day. This is a company that has shown mostly growth since 2008 when it was trading at 6.00 and just 15 months ago got up to $108. The stock gained much recognition in 2014 and the growth and price of the company blossomed, having moved up $78 in value in just 4 years.

Nonetheless and like most stocks, there comes a time when it becomes overdone to the upside and the trend stops and a big correction occurs. This happened to CVGW in September 2018 after reaching a high of $108, the stock within 4 months gave up 37.5% of its gains and dropped back down to 67.52. In the following 4 months, the stock rallied back up to 100.52 (a 42% rally) to retest the all-time high and when that retest was successful the stock then got into a sideways trend between that high and the low seen in November at 83.37. That low generated a positive reversal month which suggests that the stock has found a new support base from which to attempt resumption of the 10-year uptrend. This is now likely to occur given that agricultural stocks are making a comeback due to the China/U.S. trade agreement and also because inflation is likely to start back up again, which does help commodity stocks rally.

On a more recent basis, CVGW reported earnings 2 weeks ago and they came in better than expected and the guideline for the future was also better than expected and the stock rallied from $87 to $95 in about a week thereafter. Nonetheless, a few days ago, the company changed CEO and that caused the stock to drop back down to the price where it was trading just prior to the earnings report. This drop did not break any chart support levels and it becomes a buying opportunity that because of the drop makes purchasing the stock in this area a good risk/reward purchase as well as a high probability trade. I do have to mention that I found this stock by searching for the best agricultural stocks to buy and this one was #1 on that list. It was stated by the rating company that put it at #1 that the company has a great future and that growth is expected to surpass what has been seen in the past. It was the #1 company in earnings appreciation in 2019, showing a 42% increase in earnings and that is expected to continue this year.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, CVGW shows minor resistance at 90.36 a bit stronger but still somewhat minor at 91.30 and then another somewhat minor resistance at 92.91, which is what the chart suggest is the "minimum" amount of rally to be seen. Above that level, there is once again minor resistance at 93.87 but then decent and strongly pivotal at 94.92. A break of that level will negate the recent midterm downtrend and suggest that last year's high at 100.58 will be at least tested. Important to note that there is a triple top at that level with highs at 99.99, at 100.58 and at 99.71, meaning that the level will be a magnet to be broken if the stock gets above 94.94. If that all occurs, the $108 all-time high would be targeted and likely broken as the long term outlook based on the chart and the fundamentals suggests is a high probability.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, CVGW shows strong support between 83.37 and 85.58. These supports have been built over a period 9 months and not broken, except when the positive reversal month occurred with the previous low at 84.09 was broken with the drop down to 83.37 that showed no follow through but did generate a positive reversal. This strongly suggests that unless some negative news comes out, that the 83.37 level will not be broken any more.

CVGW did close last week in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 86.07 will be seen this week. With minor to perhaps decent support found on the daily and weekly chart at 85.86 and much stronger around the 85.00 level, the probabilities of the stock getting down to somewhere in that area but then turning around and closing green next Friday are high.

Purchases of CVGW between 85.00 and 85.86 and using a stop loss at 83.27 and having at least a $100 upside objective, offers about a 5-1 risk/reward ratio. Nonetheless, there is decent possibility that the uptrend will resume and that the $108 level will be broken, meaning that the risk/reward ratio could end up being higher than 7-1 or even more.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest.

NEE Friday Closing Price - 240.32

NEE, through its subsidiaries, generates, transmits, distributes and sells electric power to retail and wholesale customers in North America. The company generates electricity through wind, solar, nuclear and natural gas-fired facilities. It also develops, constructs, and operates long-term contracted with a focus on renewable generation facilities, natural gas pipeline, and battery storage projects, and own, develops, constructs, manages and operated electric generation facilities in wholesale energy markets.

The NEE chart is an investor's dream as the stock started trading in 1998 around the $30 level and since the year 2000 when it got down to $19.50 it has done nothing but go up in price with the exception of the great recession in 2008 when the stock had a correction of consequence. The stock just 4 weeks ago got up to a price of 245.10 and that means that it has increased in price over 700% in the last 10 years. Normally I would not be looking to be a buyer of a stock that has increased so much in price but the fact remains that growth of this company continues unabated and the recent chart action does offer a decent entry point with a valid support level (stop loss point) that suggests a purchase here has a good risk/reward ratio and attractive probability rating.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, NEE shows resistance at 243.68 and at the all-time high at 245.01. To the downside, the stock shows decent support at a double low that was built over the last 2 weeks at 237.84/237.95.

The three reasons I am giving a purchase mention on NEE is that 1) the trend is overwhelmingly strong and likely to continue, 2) the double low built over the last 2 weeks gives a viable stop loss point that unless the strong fundamental and chart picture changes with some news or outside effect, not likely to get broken and 3) the stock closed on the low of the day on Thursday but the news of the killing of the Iranian general caused all energy companies to rally and unless the new threat of increased turmoil in the Middle East dissipates (not likely), all energy companies are likely to continue higher with this one leading the way as it has done the past 10 years.

Purchases of NEE around Friday's closing price and down to the 239.50 level and using a stop loss at 237.65 and having an objective of at least 245.00 but likely much more, will offer at least a 3-1 risk/reward ratio.

Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018: Profit of $1637 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted

Status of account for 2019, as of 12/1

Profit of $12,130 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for December per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

NONE

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

CLB (long) $241

Total Profit for December, per 100 shares and after commissions $241

Closed out losing trades for December per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

NONE

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

NONE

Total Loss for December, per 100 shares, including commissions $0

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 12/31

SGMO (long) $52

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

FNV (long) $1992
AU (long) $1320
CRON (long $328

Total $3640

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 12/31

IBM (short) $7

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

ENG (long) $52
GS (short) $1716
ARNA (long) $588
ARNA (long) $78
COF (short) $520
MCIG (long) $40
SRUTF (long) $9

Total $3010

Status of trades for month of December per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.

Profit of $871

Status of account/portfolio for 2019, as of 12/31

Profit of $13051

Ending Results for 2019

Yearly totals:

Total amount of trades for the year = 78
Total amount of different stocks traded = 32
Total amount of profitable trades = 30
Total amount of losing trades = 48
Total amount of trades from last year still open = 10
Total amount of trades from previous years still open - 5
Total amount of months showing profit = 8
Total amount of months showing loss = 4
Percentage of trades/mentions profitable = 39.4%
Total trades on the long side = 27
Total trades on the short side - 51
Total profit/losss for year per 100 shares after commissions profit/losses substacted
Profit of $13051

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Updates on Held Stocks

\ ARNA generated a down week and a close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 44.90 will be seen this week. By the same token, the trading range seen ($1.41) is the smallest seen since March and suggests that the traders are not overly interested in the stock at this time, in either direction. There is intraweek support found at 44.31 that is likely to be seen but not broken. Resistance is now found at 47.77 and the probabilities favor the stock trading in that range for the next few weeks until the earnings report comes out on February 6th. By the same token, a break of either of those 2 levels would suggest further movement in that direction with strong pivotal support at 43.09 and the same to the upside as resistance at 50.31.

AU got within $.23 cents of the 6-year high seen a couple of months ago at 23.85, having seen a high this past week at 23.62. The stock did generate a negative reversal day on Friday, having made a new 4-month high but then closing red, suggesting that the first course of action for the week will be to the downside and below Friday's low at 22.53. In addition, the stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 21.80 than above last week's high at 23.67. One of the possible reasons this occurred is that the bulls tried to generate a new 6-year weekly closing high above 22.75 but failed, having closed at 22.65. Nonetheless, with Gold having made a new weekly closing high and the fundamental picture now favoring the bulls, the charts cannot be depended on this week as much as in other weeks. Either way, Gold and the stock are overall looking positive so even if the stock goes below last week's low this week, no negatives will occur unless the stock generates a confirmed daily close below 22.07 and even then the negative would likely only be short term and not indicative of the long term. Probabilities slightly favor the bears but the key word is "slightly".

COF continued its recent correction with the 3rd red weekly close in a row and further downside is expected to be seen this week given that it closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 101.32 will be seen this week. Using the daily chart, the stock has now broken 3 previous lows, meaning that a short-term downtrend is in effect at this time. Downside target remains a retest of the previous spike high daily and weekly close at 98.08 which now seems highly likely to be seen. Nonetheless, with the change of fundamentals based on the likely Iran escalation, a confirmed close below that level would open the door for a potential drop down to the $89-$90 level. Pivotal resistance now is found at 103.62, both on an intraweek and daily closing basis. As such, a stop loss at 103.72 can now be placed. Probabilities favor the bears.

CRON generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low at 6.76 and above the previous week's high at 7.15 and then closing green. The stock closed just $.04 from the midpoint of the week's trading range, leaving the door open for a drop below last week's low at 6.58 or above last week's high at 7.95. By the same token, the stock has now done enough retesting (3 times) of the 6.07 low to believe that the probabilities now slightly favor the bulls. The 8.00 to 8.15 level remains resistance and that may stop further upside but any rally above 8.15 would strongly suggest the $10 demilitarized zone would be the immediate target. Short-term pivotal support is found at 6.56.

ENG generated a second inside and uneventful inside week but having closed on the low of the week, further downside below last week's low at .98 is the most likely scenario for this week. The stock remains in "no-man's land" with no clue as to what direction will be seen now that the New Year has started. On a weekly closing basis, pivotal support is found at .90 and resistance at 1.11. With the stock closing at .99 on Friday, there is no indication of either one likely to be broken this week. Probabilities favor another uneventful week this week.

FNV made yet another new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high this week but on this occasion, the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that further downside below last week's low at 101.73 will be seen this week and that the previous all-time high weekly close at 99.04 may be tested. Then again, Gold made a new 6-year high weekly close and given the explosive situation in Iran, fundamentals may take over this week and prevent the chart probabilities from occurring. The stock did break above the "general" resistance at $103 and that resistance is now seen as support, meaning that if the stock does not go below 102.70 this week that the bulls may overcome the slight chart negative. The stock did make a new all-time intraweek high at 105.87 and if that is broken, the sky is the limit. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but if any additional news of retaliation from Iran is reported, the stock is likely to head higher.

GS generated yet another new 15-month intraweek and weekly closing high and the stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 234.64 will be seen this week. More importantly, the stock did break the indicative intraweek resistance at 234.06 (229.69 on a weekly closing basis), which does open the door for a rally up to the next resistance area at $240. Being a financial stock, the turmoil in Iran is not a big negative given that financial companies usually do well during times of turmoil and times when inflation may rear up, meaning that if there is follow through to the upside this week, consideration should be taken to cover the shorts and take the loss. By the same token, the stock is now highly oversold with 7 weeks in a row (and 12 of the last 13) being green. With no support found below until the $220 level is reached, any sign that the uptrend is pausing is likely to cause a correction down to that level to occur. As such, this week and next week when the earnings report comes out (Wednesday, January 15) are pivotal both for the short term and the longer term. It is possible that within this time frame, both the $240 and $220 levels will be seen. If the bulls fail to get above 234.64 this week, a drop down to $220 will be highly probable. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but the events happening could affect the traders mentality about the chart points.

IBM bulls tested but failed to get above the intraweek resistance at 136.42, having rallied to 135.92 and then closing red. By the same token, the bulls were able to close the stock slight above the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above the week's high at 135.92 than below the week's low at 132.40. A rally above or below those levels is likely to be indicative, meaning that the stop loss at 136.52 should remain in place. By the same token, the long term trend remains down and that means that the bulls need some fundamental help to break resistance and other than the earnings report that is due to come out in 2 weeks on January 21, the fundamental picture remains negative, and more so now with the turmoil in the middle east. As such, I would have to say that the probabilities slightly favor the bears. The parameters are clear though, with 136.42 being at least short-term resistance. By the same token, to the downside the only level of support that if broken would somewhat guarantee further downside is 126.70. Probabilities favor the stock trading between $127 and $136 until the earnings report comes out.

SGMO generated another red weekly close, the 4th in a row but on an intraweek basis, the stock stayed above the low made 4 weeks ago at 7.86 that is considered important and pivotal support given that it is also now an established double bottom. The stock did get down below last week's low with a drop down to at 8.31 with a drop down to 7.95 but then reversed to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.48 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's low will become a needed/required retest of the double bottom and that would be a positive. If the bulls can get above the previous week's high at 9.20, a buy signal will be given that should take the stock up to the next (but minor) resistance at 10.59. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SRUTF generated a positive reversal week, having made a new all-time low at .14 but then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .1743 will be seen this week. Pivotal resistance is now found at .18 (.1750 on a weekly closing basis) that if broken would generate a possible bottom to the downtrend at .14 and a rally to test the previous all-time low bottom at .2576. The stock has lost 47% in value over the past 14 weeks and other than the problems found generally in the Cannabis industry, there have been no negative fundamental changes to the company, meaning that it is likely that the downtrend was overdone and that some form of recovery, at least back up to the .25 level, will occur. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .99.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.52 (new price (45.18).

3) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0244.

4) COF - Averaged short at 91.73 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 102.00.

5) GS - Averaged short at 220.35 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 231.58.

6) FNV - Averaged long at 90.15 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 96.13. Stock closed on Friday at 103.23.

7) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.13.

8) AU - Averaged long at 19.205 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 22.65.

9) SGMO Averaged long at 8.11 (2 mentions. Stop loss at 7.60. Stock closed on Friday at 8.21.

10) ARNA - Averaged long at 48.36 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 45.18.

11) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .1625.

12) IBM - Shorted at 134.11. Stop loss at 136.35. Stock closed on Friday at 134.34


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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