Issue #653
January 19, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls Remain in Control. Unlikely that any Changes will Occur This Week!

DOW Friday closing price - 28348
SPX Friday closing price - 3329
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 9388

The indexes continued their "runaway freight train" advance, having added another 2% to the straight up rally (no correction) that is now into its 16th week and almost 13% higher than when it started in October. Once again, the indexes closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs is expected to be seen this week. With no economic reports of consequence due out this week and the first earnings report of any consequence not due out until Tuesday afternoon after the close, there seems to be nothing to prevent the indexes from going higher on at least the first 2 days of the week. Then again, there are no likely catalytic earnings reports due out this week as IBM and NFLX report on Tuesday after the close and INTC on Thursday after the close and even though these are stocks that are closely followed by the traders, it is unlikely that any of the reports will be way off what is expected, meaning not substantial enough for the bears to come out of hibernation. Simply stated, the bulls are likely to remain in full control this coming week.

It is evident by the action seen the past 4 months that at this time there is nothing on a fundamental basis that can put brakes on this runaway train. Unless the other big reports that are due out the following week (GOOGL, AMZN and APPL) disappoint, it does seem that this run will not stop until the buying dries up and anticipating that occurring is impossible given that there are no possibly catalytically negative reports on the horizon.

From a historical point of view and going back 20 years and looking at the Momentum Stochastic (overbought/oversold oscillator), it does have to be mentioned that there has only been one other occasion during that period of time where anything close to what is being seen now occurred. On every occasion and using the weekly chart and the momentum oscillator, when it got above 89, an immediate drop occurred in the oscillator itself. This does not suggest a correction in the index market occurred as there have been many examples of the oscillator going down from overbought without the indexes correcting, such as in a sideways trading phase where the indexes don't continue higher but the oscillator drops. On this occasion though, the oscillator has maintained itself around the 90 level for the past 9 weeks (since November 18th) as the indexes have not paused but continued higher. A situation somewhat similar but not as strong as seen now, occurred in October 2017 when the oscillator got up to the 90 level on the week of October 30th and then dropped down to the 70 level and stayed around there for 8 weeks before going up one more time to the 90 level and then dropping fast. The SPX saw a high of 2597 on the week of October 30 and then got up to a high of 2872 8 weeks later before dropping and having a 12% correction. On this occasion, the oscillator got up around 90 the last week of October but only got back down to 80 (not the 70 level of 2017) and now it is 8+ weeks later and the oscillator closed on Friday at 85.92. As such and using the oscillator alone, it does suggest that one or two more weeks of upside is likely to be seen and then a big correction begin and likely more than the 12% correction seen in 2017.

As far as the SPX is concerned, the last week of October the index saw a high of 3066 and now it is at 3329 (263 points), which is the about the same rally seen in October 2017 of 275 points. This oscillator is definitely showing that what is happening now is unique and never seen before, at least not in the last 20 years. As such and much like a rubber band, when the indexes come to a stop, what is to follow will be unique as well but to the downside. It is interesting to note that in 2017 it all started in October and ended the week of January 22nd. On this occasion, this all started in October and next week is the week of the 22nd. Could the situation be mimicked?

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, none of the indexes show any resistance, not even general in nature. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the same levels as reported the past 2 weeks remain in place. There is short-term pivotal support In the DOW at 28376 and then nothing until 27804 is reached. In the SPX there is short-term pivotal support at 3212, very minor support at 3191 and then nothing until 3126. In the NASDAQ there is short-term pivotal support at 8909 and then nothing until 8600.

As you can see by the relatively-far-away support levels mentioned above, the bears need a negative catalyst to generate enough selling to even reach the support levels and that continues to mean that the bears are not going to get involved and that the upward momentum will continue until some catalyst or buying exhaustion occurs. Neither is predictable. This type of action was seen during the Dot.com era and it caused the NASDAQ to almost triple in value before buying was exhausted.

From a fundamental point of view, there is nothing on the horizon that is likely to be a negative catalyst. From a chart point of view, there is nothing in the charts that suggests a correction is due. As such, the only thing that can be looked at this week are the technical indicators such as the Momentum Stochastic mentioned above. The only other study that is way out of line are the Bollinger bands that are stretched to the max and highly likely to collapse soon. Then again and using that study, they have been stretched to the max now since the last week of October and not an indicator that something will pop on any one week. By the same token and using the SPX chart, the bottom of the Bollinger band is presently at 2874 (450 points lower) and that would be a definite target when a correction begins. That would suggest a 14% correction will occur when it begins.

Evidently, the next 2 weeks and the earnings reports are going to be important as any of big Tech Stocks could be a negative catalyst if a disappointing report comes out. By the same token, it is not likely that any big negative reports come out. Economic reports of possible pivotal consequence are not due out until the first week of February, meaning that the next 2 weeks, it is unlikely that the bears are going to show up in any discernable way. As such, the bulls will continue to be in control until they are not.

Probabilities favor the bulls again this week with no negatives on the horizon.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions this week as this week and next will be heavily dependent on earnings reports and with no economic reports of consequence due out, it is unlikely the traders will do much with any stock that has no news attached to it. In addition, the big earnings report week will be the following week and given that the 2 major economic reports for the month (ISM Index and Jobs) come out that week as well, this week will likely be more of a pause in the action than movement of any consequence.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AGCO generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 12-week low and then closing green and near the high of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside will be seen next week above this week's high at 75.31. The green weekly close made last week's close at 73.79 into a successful retest of a minor to perhaps decent previous low weekly close as well as of the previous all-time high. If this action is confirmed with another green weekly close next Friday, it would suggest the uptrend has resumed and that a new all-time high above 81.39 will be made within the next 3-6 weeks. It also needs to be mentioned that using the daily chart, the drop down to 73.13 is now a successful retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 74.01, and that line has held firm the past 52 weeks. The action seen suggests that only some negative fundamental catalyst would generate further downside. Minor resistance is found at 75.56 but if broken, there is nothing of consequence until 78.00 is reached. The company reports earnings in 3 weeks (on February 6th), suggesting that the probabilities favor the bulls during this period of time. Stop loss should now be placed at 73.03.

ARNA received some positive news in the form of the government agreeing to "fast tracking" one of their bio-pharma products that is in clinical trials and the stock generated a positive reversal as well as a likely successful retest of the recent low, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing above the previous week's high and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 47.70 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the chart is still slightly tilted in favor of the bears (bearish inverted flag formation is still in place) and only after the stock gets and closes above the 17-week high at 50.33 will the edge change back to the bull side. For now though, the probabilities favor the stock rallying up to $50 demilitarized zone until more information comes out. As it was last week, support is found at 45.28, at 44.94 and at 44.33 and short term pivotal resistance is found at 47.77 that if broken would open the door for a rally to the $50 demilitarized zone. The news was positive but not a game changer, meaning that the only thing that has changed is that the bulls now have the slight edge for the short term, whereas the bears had that edge last week. Otherwise, nothing has yet changed.

AU followed through to the downside this past week after 2 weeks ago the stock tested the 6-year high successfully, having generated a red close below the 6-year wekly closing high at 22.75. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 20.09 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, Gold maintained itself at the new 6-year high, suggesting that this recent weakness is temporary and technical in nature. There is intraweek support at 19.53 and decent to strong support at 18.04 and includes the 200-day MA, currently at 18.13, suggesting that as long as Gold doesn't turn around in an indicative way, that support will not be broken. Minor to decent intraweek resistance is now found at 22.93. The chart suggests that the stock will trade between 19.70 and 22.70 for the next week or two until the index market decides what it wants to do. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

COF generated a green weekly close and on a spike-type basis, having appreciated 4.5% over the past 2 weeks. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 104.47 is expected to be seen this week. The all-time high is 105.70 and that will be the target this week. Nonetheless, the company reports earnings Tuesday after the close and that will be the determining factor for the stock this week. The previous week's low at 99.83 is now strongly pivotal and if broken, the target would be the $94 level. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. Stop loss should remain at 105.80 but with the earnings report due out, it should be mental and not a hard stop, at least until after the report comes out.

CRON made a new 10-week high in a spike up fashion and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.82 will be seen this week. The break above the resistance at 8.15 suggests that the stock has broken out of the sideways $6-$8 trading range and that some recovery if not the beginning of a new uptrend has started. On an intraweek basis, there is resistance at 9.59, 10.39, 10.56, and at 11.90 with weekly close resistance being minor to decent at the $10 demilitarized zone. The 200-day MA is currently at 11.79 and that line is a definite target for the traders to shoot for, off of this breakout. As far as support is concerned, the 7.70 level on a daily closing basis is now minor to decent support that should not be broken unless this breakout is negated (unlikely). This mini breakout is not suggestive of a new uptrend of consequence having started but it is indicative that a bottom to the 9-month downtrend has been found and that a new trading range, likely to be $8-$11 is now in place until the company reports earnings on February 11. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

CVGW got down to the 200-week MA, currently at 78.76, with a intraweek drop down to 78.56 and a bounce back up to 81.64, which is significant move of 3.6%. The MA has not been broken for the past 11 years and there is no fundamental basis for the line being broken at this time, meaning that the probabilities now favor a bounce back up to at least the 200-day MA, currently at 91.14. On a slightly negative note, the bulls failed to close the stock in the upper half of the week's trading range, leaving the door open for a bit more weakness this week and a weekly close next Friday lower than this week's close at 80.73. Nonetheless, it is likely (if not evident) that the stock is now in the process of building a new support base from which to launch a new attempt at a new all-time high this year, given the strong and positive fundamentals of the company. The stock did generate a negative reversal day on Friday, meaning that the first course of action for the week will be to the downside and an attempt at generating a successful retest on the daily chart of last week's low. If that occurs and the 78.56 low is not broken and then the stock gets above Friday's high at 81.64, a new buy signal will be given and the bulls will climb aboard immediately, especially since above that level there is no resistance until the $84 level is reached. Last week's low might be broken this week given that the stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range but even if broken, it would not likely be by much and buying would likely be seen. The 75.78 level of support should not be broken. If it is broken, it will change the chart totally. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but the probabilities also favor a new support area being in the process of being built and from which to launch a resumption of the 12-year uptrend that is still in place.

ENG continued to trade in the now 4-month trading range between .96 and 1.11 levels (based on weekly closes) without giving any sign of a breakout or breakdown on the horizon. The company does not report earnings for another 3 weeks, suggesting more of the same will continue to be seen. On a weekly closing basis, pivotal support is found at .90 and resistance at 1.11. With the stock closing at .099 on Friday, there is no indication of either one likely to be broken this week. Probabilities favor another uneventful week this week.

FNV generated another new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 106.40 will be seen this week. As long as Gold does not sell off, this stock is likely to continue to outpace all other Gold related stocks given that it is not a Gold producer but a company that helps Gold producers through loans and other needed products. As such, not as sensitive to Gold movement. The stock has now made 3 new all-time highs in the past 4 weeks and given that the previous week the stock went down to the previous all-time high weekly close at 99.04 with a drop down to 99.66, it means that a successful retest occurred and that further upside and likely of consequence is on the horizon. Pivotal support is now found at that 99.66 low, meaning that stop losses can now be moved up to 99.56. There is no resistance to the upside but based on the action the past 4 weeks, the $110-$111 level could be the next objective seen. Probabilities favor the bulls.

GS broke through the minor to decent intraweek resistance at 245.08/245.42 to make a new 21-month high and get up to the next psychological resistance at $250. Nonetheless, there is no previous and established resistance at this level, meaning that the stock is likely to continue higher to the decent intraweek resistance at 255.15 (252.80 on a weekly closing basis). The stock did close on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 250.46 is expected to be seen this week. The company reported earnings this past week and though they were generally better than expected, there were some negatives and the initial reaction was to the downside with the stock opening $6 lower after the report. This does suggest that the traders are likely to respect the chart resistance level above as on a fundamental basis, these prices are not fully supported. The stock has now generated 8 weeks in a row of green weekly closes and 14 out of the last 15 and has appreciated 22.6% in value over the past 4 months without any major change in fundamentals. If nothing else, a correction of some consequence is way overdue. The $220 level continues to be a valid downside target for a correction. If the $255 level is reached, a drop down to $220 would be a 13% correction, which is doable. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but the possibilities of some selling on consequence starting as the stock gets above 252.80 and near 255.00 is high.

IBM made a new 10-week high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 138.33 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock did receive 2 downgrades this week and the company reports earnings on Tuesday after the close and the probabilities favor the bears. The new 10-week high did not negate the midterm bearish inverted flag formation, meaning the chart still supports lower prices and a $127.70 objective. By the same token and looking at the action the past 2 weeks, the short term direction is up and the top of the bearish flag at 139.14 is the objective for this week. It is also important to note that the stock closed Friday at the 200-day MA, currently at 138.08 and if the 139.14 resistance is broken and the bulls are able to generate 2 daily closes in a row above the MA line, then the chart outlook will change. Pivotal support is found at 130.69 but if last week's low at 135.07 is broken, the probabilities will favor the traders attempting to reach the pivotal support thereafter. Probabilities favor the bears but the earnings report could be catalytic for the bulls.

SGMO generated an uneventful week, trading within the recent trading range between 7.95 and 9.20. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.07 will be seen this week. A mountain of support is found between 7.70 and 7.95 that should not be broken but if it is broken, it will open the door for a drop down to the 6.55 to 6.26 level. The company reports earnings on February 5th and the probabilities do not favor anything of consequence happening until that report comes out. As such, probabilities favor the stock generating a trading range this week between 7.95/8.00 and 8.80/8.85.

SRUTF traded once again in the same trading range it has been in for the past 33 trading days (between .14 and .165) with no sign of whether a breakout or a breakdown of this trading range is in the immediate horizon. By the same token, the mini breakout seen in two other Cannabis stocks (MCIG and CRON) does suggest the probabilities favor the bulls for the same kind of breakout as seen there. Pivotal resistance is now found at .18 (.1750 on a weekly closing basis) that if broken would generate a possible bottom to the downtrend at .14 and a rally to test the previous all-time low bottom at .2576. Pivotal support is found at .133. The stock has lost 50% in value over the past 14 weeks and other than the problems found generally in the Cannabis industry, there have been no negative fundamental changes to the company, meaning that it is likely that the downtrend was overdone and that some form of recovery, at least back up to the .25 level, will occur. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .99.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.67 (new price (46.67).

3) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0479.

4) COF - Averaged short at 91.73 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 104.13.

5) GS - Short at 218.54. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 249.46.

6) FNV - Averaged long at 90.15 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 96.13. Stock closed on Friday at 105.63.

7) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.55.

8) AU - Averaged long at 19.205 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.39.

9) SGMO Averaged long at 8.11 (2 mentions. Stop loss at 7.60. Stock closed on Friday at 8.37.

10) ARNA - Averaged long at 48.36 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 46.67.

11) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .1624.

12) IBM - Shorted at 134.11. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 138.31.

13) AGCO - Purchased at 74.13. Averaged long at 74.995 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 72.54. Stock closed on Friday at 74.76.

14) CVGW - Purchased at 81.86 and at 79..17. Averaged long at 82.83 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 80.73.

15) GS - Shorted at 224.14. Covered shorts at 240.02. Loss on the trade of $1588 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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