Issue #665
April 5, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bounce Over? Time to test Lows!

DOW Friday closing price - 21052
SPX Friday closing price - 2488
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 7373

The SPX and NASDAQ generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's highs and then closing red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 20735, SPX at 2447 and NAZ at 7288) will be seen this week. In addition, all the indexes made red weekly closes, meaning that that the previous week's high weekly closes are now seen as successful retests of the resistance levels above, such as the NAZ that has multiple (6) previous high and low weekly closes between 7406 and 7560 that the previous week's close at 7502 now shows as a successful retest of that important and pivotal area. This, on a chart scenario, suggests that the next course of action is either to test the lows seen a few weeks ago or continue the bear market trend making new lows.

All indexes generated a daily gap opening 9 trading days ago and those gaps were not supported with any catalytic fundamental news, meaning that with the negative reversal week seen this past week, those gaps are now magnets to the downside and likely to be closed this week. In the DOW that gap is at 19121, in the SPX it is at 2300 and in the NASDAQ it is at 7373. Based on Friday's closes, this suggests that a 5% drop is likely to occur this week. On the other side of the coin, the indexes gapped down on Thursday and those gaps also are not supported and likely to be magnets as well unless another daily gap down occurs, which in turn would then become a second breakaway/runaway formation based on the fact that the news of the economic malaise of the virus continues strongly. If that second gap down occurs any day this week without the first gap being closed, it would then suggest that the recent lows would not just be retested but broken as the recovery bounce is over and the downtrend resumes. Those gaps are at 21842 in the DOW, at 2571 in the SPX and at 7642 in the NASDAQ. Both gaps (the upside and downside ones) will be what the traders pay attention to this week.

It has always been expected that the recent lows would be tested given that the economic ills remain in place but the big question has been whether the downtrend will continue with new lows being made, or not. It is important to note that based on the NASDAQ, the downside target of this bear market is 4700, to be reached over a period of 1-2 years, and therefore that potential objective (and whether this is truly going to be a bear market) may start to be seen in the next couple of weeks, depending on whether the lows are broken or not.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows pivotal resistance at 22595. The SPX now shows pivotal resistance at 2641 and the NASDAQ now shows pivotal resistance at 7880.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows very minor support at 20735 and then nothing until 18917. Decent support is found at the low of the move down at 18213. The SPX shows minor support at 2447, decent at last year's low at 2346 and then nothing until 2280. Decent support is found at the low of the move down at 2197. The NASDAQ shows minor support at 7200 and then nothing until 6686. Decent support is found at the low of the move down at 6631.

The reality in the charts is that there is no support of consequence below until those gaps are closed, with the exception of the SPX, whose last year's low at 2346 is decent and above where the gap is. By the same token, with none of the other indexes showing like support, it is unlikely that low in that index will hold the entire market up. The fundamental news continues to be negative with the Jobs report coming out on Friday substantially lower than anticipated (-701k vs expected -40k) and that number expected to go up more by next month's report. As such, no minor supports are likely to hold up the indexes at this time, at least not until some balancing of the virus curve is seen and that is not even expected to happen for another 2-4 weeks. There are no economic reports of any consequence due out this week and news of the pandemic curve is not expected to get any better at this time, meaning that there is nothing this week that can help the bulls fundamentally, at least nothing that I can think of. This means that the charts are the only thing traders, computers, and algorithms can watch and depend on for trading. As such, support and resistance levels as mentioned above are likely to hold up with a higher probability of supports breaking than resistances, if there are any surprises. Using the SPX as a guideline, the index saw a 192 point trading range last week and given that there is no reason right now for the indexes to get a calmer trading week and using the magnet support at 2280, it would suggest a possible trading range this week between 2280 and 2472. With the index closing at 2488 on Friday, if this trading range works out as stated above, it would mean no green would be seen this week (using the weekly chart).

Probabilities favor the bears.


GOLD generated a noneventful inside week but did generate another green weekly close keeping the recent rally heading higher. It did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $1673 will be seen this week. In spite of it being somewhat of a non-eventful week, Gold traders did do some support building chart work, having generated an intraweek retest of the previous 6-year intraweek high from August of last year at $1576 with a low this past week at $1581 and even more indicative, the successful retest was even more clear on the daily closing chart when Gold closed at $1591, with the daily closing chart from January of this year showing a previous multi-year daily closing high at $1589. As such and on a daily closing basis, the $1589/$1591 level is now considered decent and pivotal support and from which the bulls can buy using a close and clearly defined support area. On the other side of the coin and with the additional green weekly close, the bulls are now "committed" to making a new 7-year high on the weekly closing chart above $1672 this week or at the very latest the next week, as any red weekly close before that happens, would be seen as a successful retest of the high weekly close at that price that would at least cause a sideways trend to occur. This level was also made even more evident this past week when the intraweek high was $1673. Simply stated, the bulls have to make a new weekly closing high, or at the very least another green weekly close next Friday, to maintain the edge. Any daily close below $1589 would now be a strong negative. Probabilities favor the bulls.

OIL generated a key positive reversal week, having made a new 18-year intraweek low and the closing above the previous week's high and on the high of the week, suggesting further intraweek upside above last week's high at 29.13 will be seen this week. A buy signal was given on the daily chart on Friday when oil closed above 25.22. By the same token, the buy signal is not yet a longer term buy signal as oil still closed below the breakdown weekly close support level at 29.42 that caused the drop down to 19.29 to occur. All of this occurred when Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to cut production of oil, meaning that the overwhelming supply of oil coming to the market at a time when demand has dropped precipitously has now stopped. Nonetheless, and from a fundamental basis, there will still be an oversupply that should keep the prices relatively low until such a time that the demand for oil increases when the virus stops the demand from dropping. This coming week is important, given than OPEC is meeting to finalize the agreement and it is not yet set in stone how much the production will be cut. Using the chart as a guideline, the 29.42 level is now highly pivotal as 2 weekly closes in a row above that level will open the door for a recovery rally up to the $40 to $45 level. Nonetheless, any red weekly close at this time (or before a confirmed weekly close above 29.42 occurs), would suggest oil will trade between $25 and $30 or even between $20 and $30 for the next few months until the virus problem begins to go away. The latter scenario is the most probable. Probabilities for this week are even with some green seen at the beginning of the week but the close at the end of the week being a flip of a coin depending on what comes out of the OPEC meeting.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have only one new mention this week as the indexes and many stocks seem to be in the middle of potential trading ranges and getting involved at these prices does not offer risk/reward ratios worth considering. Nonetheless, I am leaving 3 of the 4 purchase mentions from last week (plus the new one) as I do expect the indexes and most held stocks to go down this week and if that occurs, there is a chance that the mentions will reach desired entry points.

As always though, I am monitoring the trading every day and if some opportunity presents itself for a trade, even if it is simply a day trade, I will mention it in the message board.

ROKU Friday Closing Price - 81.46

Purchases of ROKU between 79.70 and 80.30 and using a stop loss at 74.65 and having an objective of 98.80 will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

TCEHY Friday Closing Price - 47.81

Purchases of TCEHY below 40.30 and using a stop loss at 38.64 and having a $50 demilitarized zone objective offers a minimum 5-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

NEM Friday Closing Price - 47.15

Purchases of NEM around 45.70 and using a stop loss at 44.59 and having a 58.22 objective will offer a 10-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). The rating is lower than last week because the desired entry point has been raised, as well as the stop loss point. By the same token, the risk/reward ratio has multiplied in benefit of the trade by 3X.

ENG Friday Closing Price - .70

Purchases of ENG below .64 and using a stop loss at .46 and having an objective of 1.70 will offer a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018: Profit of $1,637 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2019: Profit of $13,051per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted

Status of account for 2020, as of 3/1

Loss of $608 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for March per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

AXP (short) $1275
NEM (long) $180
IBM (short) $1746
XOM (long) $155
QQQ (short) $1390
QQQ (short) $74

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

CAT (short) $4847
ARNA (short) $260

Total Profit for March, per 100 shares and after commissions $9927

Closed out losing trades for March per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

CLB (long) $365
FNV (long) $72
FNV (long) $42
NEM (long) $115
ABBV (long) $989
ARNA (long) $102
BIDU (long) $311

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

LNTH (long) $635

Total Loss for March, per 100 shares, including commissions $2631

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 3/31

AXP (short) $2039
QQQ (short) $2129
FNV (long) $2223

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

NEM (long) $195

Total $6586

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 3/31

CAT (short) $1927

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

AU (long) $328
CRON (long) $72
MCIG (long) $20
SRUTF (long) $60
FNV (long) $3132
ENG (long) $138

Total $5677

Status of trades for month of March per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtracted.

Profit of $8205

Status of account/portfolio for 2020, as of 3/31

Profit of $7597

per 100 shares.



Updates on Held Stocks

AU generated a red weekly close but only by $.022 cents and not below the weekly close support level at 17.45 (closed at 17.79 on Friday) that when broken caused the stock to drop down to the $12 level, meaning that the close was not indicative either way (up or down). Given that Gold generated a positive weekly close, the probabilities slightly favor the bulls. The stock closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 19.12 than below last week's low at 16.00. If that occurs, it would be a positive sign. The opposite would be true if the stock goes below last week's low. Resistance is found at 18.99 and at 20.25, which if the latter is broken, a rally up to at least 21.63 would likely occur. One of the likely reasons for the weakness at the end of the week is that there is an open gap between 16.82 and 17.15 and this stock has been consistent in closing gaps. By the same token, if a gap to the upside occurs before the gap to the downside happens, then it would be a strong bullish sign. Probabilities do favor the bulls but some weakness down to close the gap is likely to be seen this week.

CAT generated another green weekly close and did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 118.52 will be seen this week. In addition, a failure signal against the bears was given when the stock closed on Friday above the weekly close breakdown point at 114.06 (closed at 114.67). Nonetheless and like all other signals, it needs to be confirmed with another close above 114.06 this coming Friday to have any validity. As it stands right now on the chart, the bulls are likely to take the stock up to close the gap seen at 118.83 that they failed to close this past week. Closure of the gap is not a big positive as it is a simple gap (not a breakaway/runaway gap) but a failure to close the gap this week would likely be a strong negative as the bulls have everything set up to do so. The stock is showing pivotal intraweek support at 109.50 (110.25 on a daily closing basis) that if broken, the bears would regain at least short-term control. Either way and based on the fundamental picture, it is difficult to see the stock going up much higher as the stock is still within the confirmed bear market signal given a few weeks ago that would require a confirmed weekly close above 120.44 to negate. In addition and even if the gap up at 118.83 is closed, the probabilities of the stock getting back down next Friday to test the negation signal at 114.06 is high. As such, I do believe the bears are still in control on a mid to long term basis and short positions should be held.

CRON reported earnings this week and they were lower than anticipated. The mini breakout seen the previous week on the weekly chart when the stock closed above 6.28 was negated (not confirmed), leaving the traders in limbo. By the same token, no new sell signal was given since the recent low weekly close at 5.26 remained unbroken. In fact, the stock closed on Friday at a weekly closing level of great importance at 5.51, having closed on Friday at 5.52. That was the previous low weekly close that held up for 2 years before being broken a couple of weeks ago. As such, it is considered indicative support. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.14 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and considering that the 28-month intraweek low at 4.00 has not yet seen a retest of it, a drop below last week's low could be a positive thing as it would be the required/needed retest of the low. Evidently and because the stock closed at a previously important low weekly close, the bulls want (perhaps need) a green weekly close to occur next Friday. As such, a positive reversal week is what the bulls need. Intraweek support is found at 4.79 that is likely to be seen this week. From that level, buying interest should occur. Personally, I do believe this scenario will occur and therefore by the end of the week, probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG generated an inside week but a red weekly close, meaning that the recent positive earnings report has not been able to generate strong buying interest yet. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at .64 than above last week's high at .80. Nonetheless, there is minor to decent daily close support at .68 that should hold up. Pivotal daily close resistance is found at .80, meaning that using the daily closing chart, the .68 and .80 levels are pivotal short-term support and resistance this week and whichever one is broken will likely generate at least an $.08-$.010 move in that direction. Based on the positive earnings report, I would say probabilities favor the bulls. In addition and if the indexes do not collapse this week (unlikely), any dip below last week's low at .64 is an opportunity to add or buy new positions.

FNV generated a positive reversal week, having gone below last week's low and then closing green and in the upper half of last week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 111.64 will be seen this week. In addition, last week's low at 95.33 will be considered a necessary/required retest of the 77.18 low seen 3 weeks ago, meaning the chart would be fulfilled for further upside. The stock did generate a failure signal against the bears, having closed on Friday above the previous low weekly close at 107.50 (closed at 107.95) that when broken caused the stock to fall to 77.18. If confirmed next week with another green weekly close, the all-time high at 122.65 would become a short-term target for at least a retest if not a break and a new all-time high made. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 114.75 that if broken would give the bulls the necessary ammunition to fulfill this scenario. Pivotal support is a last week's low at 95.33. It must be mentioned that there is an open gap on the chart between 103.35 and 103.75 that should be targeted for closure at some point this week. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

MCIG generated another non-eventful inside week (the 3rd in a row), having traded in a very narrow $.006 trading range. The stock did generate another red weekly close (the 6th in a row) but the weekly close support level at .25 remained untouched and unbroken. As such, I have no new comments this weekend regarding short-term (up or down) at this time. Nonetheless, the .25 level remains a very strong pivotal support level that in effect should not be seen again as it would mean a triple bottom would be built, that normally would be broken. The stock is showing short-term pivotal resistance at .4 that if broken would confirm the double low and give the bulls' new ammunition. With CRON having what seems to be a pivotal week ahead, the same can be said about the stock. Chart parameters remain clearly defined at .25 (support) and .4 (resistance). Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

NEM confirmed the negation of the break down point at 44.63, which drove the stock down to the 33.00, with a second green close above that level on Friday. The stock closed exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting an equal opportunity of going below last week's low at 44.59 than above last week's high at 49.75. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 50.29 and pivotal intraweek support is found at last week's low at 44.59. The stock has been the strongest of the gold stocks and is showing a clear and bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 33.00 to 50.29 and the flag the drop back down to 44.59. A break above the top of the flag at 50.29 offers a 61.88 objective. The stock did close on the lows of the day on Friday, meaning that the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the downside with 45.75 as a downside objective (give or take $.20 cents). Nonetheless, Gold continues to look positive and so does this chart, suggesting that the probabilities favor the bulls.

QQQ generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high and then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 180.86 will be seen this week. The red weekly close made the previous weeks close at 185.30 into a successful retest of a previous high weekly close of importance at 186.95 as well as a successful retest of the 100-week MA, currently at 185.35. This does suggest that the recovery/bounce rally is over and that the lows will now be tested before any new buying interest is seen. The stock is showing an open gap below between 174.21 and 177.95 that should be targeted for closure this week. There is no established intraweek support until 169.16 is reached. In that area between $169 and $175, some buying interest should be found, meaning that taking profits can be considered. Short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 190.10. Probabilities favor the bears.

SRUTF generated an uneventful inside week but did generate a minor red weekly close, meaning the bears remain in control. By the same token, the stock has now traded for 3 weeks in a row around the $.07 cent level, meaning that the selling interest in this area has waned. Given that this is a Cannabis stock, watching CRON might give a clue to as whether some upside or more downside is to come. No other comment possible at this time.

W generated an inside week but a green weekly close as well as a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 55.31 than below last week's low at 43.61. Nonetheless, the company received a downgrade this past week with a $35 target price and there has been no news since that downgrade occurred, suggesting the bulls will have problems generating any rally of consequence. Nonetheless and for some unknown reason, the bulls were able to close above a decent weekly close resistance level at 49.53 that was established in 2015 and held up for over 1 year. Having closed for 2 weeks in a row below that level, this close could be indicative as it is a mini short-term breakout if confirmed with another close above that level next Friday. If that occurs, there is basically open air until the next weekly close resistance at 61.27, which was the support level that got broken that took the stock down to 21.70 and that was also tested the previous week with an intraweek high at 61.59. The stock has proven to be extremely volatile, therefore a favorite for day and short-term traders to trade and manipulate on a very short-term basis. One additional possible negative is that the chart is showing a bullish flag formation that if broken (a rally above the previous week's high at 61.29) would offer an $81 intraweek objective. By the same token, if the bottom of the flag at 43.61 is broken, it would negate the flag. There is an open gap below between 30.76 and 33.29 that should be a magnet given the likely direction of the index market and the lack of positive news on the stock. As such and though the probabilities favor the bulls this week, this is certainly a stock that because of the volatility, probabilities are almost a flip of a coin. I would tend to cover the short positions on Monday on a dip unless the indexes break their short-term supports or the stock generates a daily close below 46.30.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at ..70.

2) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0291.

3) FNV - Averaged long at 87.558 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 107.95.

4) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.29.

5) AU - Averaged long at 19.205 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.79.

6) NEM - Averaged long at 40.88 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 47.15.

7) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .07.

8) W - Shorted at 48.01. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 50.63.

9) CAT - Shorted at 110.85 and at 114.61. Averaged short at 109.55 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 114.67.

10) QQQ - Shorted at 191.09 and at 194.90. Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 190.35. Stock closed on Friday at 183.37.

11) AXP - Shorted at 98.23. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 73.60.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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