Issue #661 ![]() March 8, 2020 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bears Remain in Control but a Slight Pause to Build Support and Resistance Levels Occurred Last Week!
DOW Friday closing price - 25864
The indexes all managed to generate a green weekly close though the volatility continued to be high with the VIX reaching a level of 54.39, not seen since January 2009 and closing at a weekly close level not seen since 2011. In addition, the best performer among the indexes this week was the DOW as it closed above last week's close by 1.8%, whereas the SPX closed only .7% higher and the NASDAQ only closing .001% above last week's high. The fact that the DOW is now the preferred index to buy (when buying interest is found) suggests the traders are not being aggressive but extremely conservative and that in turn means that the green close this week was more technical in nature than fundamental.
It is also important to note that the buying seen on Friday at the end of the day was more about short-covering based on the remaining support levels not breaking than it was about any speculative buying interest seen. This was especially evident in the NASDAQ that got down to within 45 points of the previous all-time high weekly close at 8330 with a drop down to 8375 at 3:09 pm on Friday but when the bears were unable to go lower, short-covering occurred as the week was expiring. This was not new buying interest but mainly day trading short-covering.
The indexes all generated an inside week with lower highs and higher lows than the week before but the bottom line is that in spite of the green weekly close, the indexes all closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low (DOW at 25225, SPX at 2901 and NAZ at 8375) will be seen this week. As such, the basic problems causing the fall remain in place and have to change for the better if there is going to be any kind of recovery started. With the Corona Virus still spreading in the world and now in 100+ countries, with confirmed infections of 105,895, deaths at 3567, and death rate at 3.3% (based on confirmed cases), it is still a major problem with no immediate solution in sight. With this continuing to expand rapidly across the world, events, deliveries, purchases, and stoppage of work is likely to continue, meaning that there is no fundamental reason yet to buy stocks. This means that traders will continue to be defensive with the only question being "how much defense can be accomplished"?
From a chart perspective, the outlook is negative as the previously strong support levels have already been broken in both the DOW and the SPX and there is no level at this time where a concerted efforts by chart and technical traders is found where they can get together to defend the indexes. The only index that still has a clearly defined support level that the traders can get together to defend is the NASDAQ, which is where the 8330 previous all-time high weekly close is located. The index has been down below and close to that level the past 2 weeks without a break yet occurring but previous weekly closing highs are never as strong as previous weekly closing lows that have been proven to have turned the indexes around and with the DOW now starting to be the index where the bulls have begun to turn to, it seems that it is just a matter of time before the NAZ closes below that level, especially if the Virus continues to grow unabated.
As such and with the indexes likely to go below last week's lows, the only nearby support levels found are the previous week's intraweek lows (DOW at 24681, SPX at 2855, and NAZ at 8264). In the DOW and SPX there is some history there given that those "same" lows were seen previously. In the DOW a low at 24680 was seen the first week of June of last year and in the SPX that same exact low (2855) was seen the last week of September just before the October runaway freight train rally began. Nonetheless, neither of those lows are strong in nature as there is no other history (before those lows were made) of them being support, such as in the DOW around the 23,500/24,000 level and the SPX around the 2600 level, at which both of the indexes traded around and down to repeatedly between February and July 2018 (a total of 5 months of support built). In addition and probably even more important, is the fact that the 200-week MA is currently at 23587 and at 2639 in both of those indexes and that line is presently a magnet likely to be tested because of the strong weakness being seen at this time.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows support at 24680 and then nothing until 23997. The SPX shows support at 2855, at 2825, at 2728 and then nothing of consequence until 2603. The NASDAQ shows support at 8264 and then nothing until 7662/7700. Below that, stronger support is found at 7272 and then nothing until 6950.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor but short-term pivotal resistance at 27102 and then a bit stronger and more mid-term pivotal at the previous all-time high at 27398. The SPX shows minor but likely midterm pivotal resistance between 3136 and 3154. The NASDAQ shows midterm pivotal resistance at 9070 and then nothing until 9471.
The charts are finally starting to get defined with the highs seen this past week as pivotal resistance levels on the daily chart. The same can be said about the previous week's lows being pivotal. Nonetheless, the key index remains the NASDAQ given that if the previous week's low at 8264 is broken, the bulls are likely to "jump ship" and all the indexes head lower toward the next set of support levels, which are certainly not close by in the index itself. In addition, the weekly MA's in the other two indexes will become strong magnets for highly viable and probable downside objectives. By the same token and to the upside, last week's high in the NAZ would have the same effect to the opposite side given that the previous all-time high weekly close will show a successful retest and the bulls will climb aboard. This means that 8264 and 9070 are the levels to watch in the index this week. A break to the upside would likely bring about a 400 point move and a break to the downside a 700 point move. The index closed on Friday at 8575, meaning that the bulls need a rally of 490+ points to generate new buying while the bears need a drop of 311+ points in order to stimulate more selling. Probabilities favor the bears.
OIL made a new 42-month intraweek low and a new 45-month weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 41.05 will be seen this week. The break was particularly indicative as 4 previous and decent weekly close support levels were broken, leaving only one old support (at 40.45 from August 2015) left before the most recent weekly close support below at 29.45 is targeted. There is an older (from December 2013) major weekly close support at 33.87 that would likely offer at least a bounce before targeting the 29.45 level, if the bearish fundamental picture changes a bit. Nonetheless, the 33.87 level now looks probable rather than possible. The daily closing chart does offer some support at 40.06 that might hold up this week but if broken and confirmed would suggest a drop down to the 36.79 level on a daily closing basis. On a weekly closing basis, only a close above 45.33 would negate the bearish looking chart. On a daily closing basis, a close above 47.18 is needed. Based on the chart and the overall outlook for the index market, the probabilities favor the index heading lower into the 30's this week with 36.78 as the potential and maybe even probable target for this week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
This past week did not clarify anything as it was a week the traders used to delineate the area of support and resistance that if broken would lead to a recovery or further downside. As such, I still do not have a clear probability of direction though the bears are basically still in short-term control. In addition and thinking about new positions, the risk/reward ratio on any trade that is dependent on the indexes direction is not good for either side, meaning that as of this writing there are no good entry points versus stop loss and objective areas where a trade can be done with some confidence of risk being limited. This also includes the wild volatility being seen.
As such, I did not even bother to do any research on stocks that may have their own fundamentals or chart pictures clear enough to where a trade can be done with the exception of the trade I mentioned last week (ABBY) that I did follow this past week and still has its own set of fundamentals that are bullish enough and not all that sensitive to the index market as to risk a trade. This stock will once again be the mentioned trade this week with a new desired entry point based on the action last week.
ABBV Friday Closing Price - 88.82
ABBV discovers, develops manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products in the United States, Japan, Germany, Canada, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Brazil and internationally. It also specializes in medicines that have to do with the autoimmune diseases and will likely be involved in some way with whatever antidote that is developed for the Corona Virus.
More importantly, ABBV had been in a downtrend from January 2018 to October 2019 and traded below the 200-week MA for a full 4 months before a break above that line occurred in October of last year, way before there was the Corona Virus, meaning that the stock was already rallying on its own fundamental picture. Evidently, with the Virus now a problem the company could even benefit more being a part of the solution.
ABBV did get affected by the index market fall the previous week when it dropped 13% in value, much like what the indexes dropped. Nonetheless, and unlike the indexes, the stock not only did not break any important or pivotal supports the previous week but actually generated a rally this past week with a 3.6% appreciation in price, whereas as the indexes rallied only an average of 1%, meaning that the buying interest in the stock is greater than that in the indexes
The 200-week MA, which ABBV broke above in October, is currently at 80.26 and that line was already successfully tested the last week of January with a drop down to 80.42. As such and with the drop down to 81.58 the previous week and a green close last week, it now shows a second successful retest of the line as well as a successful retest of the 100-week MA, currently at 85.07. This does give the bulls some added ammunition this week, irregardless of what the index market might do. In addition, the stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 91.86 than below last week's low at 83.55.
Using the daily chart, ABBV did stop at a minor to decent intraweek resistance at 91.99 with a high last week at 91.86, suggesting that the probabilities favor a drop this week to an established support area on the daily chart between 85.31 to 86.00 level, which is also where the 100-week MA and the previous week's close are located. A drop down to this area will only occur if weakness is seen on the index market. Otherwise, reaching the new desired entry point below 86.00 will not be obtained.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, ABBV chart shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 91.99 and decent at the recent high seen 3 weeks ago at 97.86. Nonetheless, prior to the fall due to the crisis, had already broken one decent resistance at 94.98 and was on its way to the next decent resistance at the $100, demilitarized zone. Above that level, there is open air to 107.25 and above that the all-time high 125.86 had become the objective and target. This does suggest that getting involved around this level will offer anywhere from a minimum $15 move to the upside with potential for as much as a $45 move before any major positive fundamental changes had to occur to cause the stock to make a new all-time high.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, ABBV shows support between 85.31 and 85.59 that should not now be broken if the stock is to head higher. If broken, a drop down to at least 82.76 would likely be seen. As such, I will be using a sensitive stop loss that will reduce the probability rating but will increase the risk/reward ratio.
Purchases of ABBV below $86 and using a sensitive stop loss at 85.21 and having an objective of $125 offers a 45-1 risk/reward ratio. Nonetheless, the real risk/reward ratio on a short-term basis and using the more viable objective of $100, would offer a 17-1 risk/reward ratio. Keep in mind that if stopped out, interest in repurchasing the stock around the 82.80 could be used.
My rating on the trade using the sensitive stop loss is 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AU generated an inside week but did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 21.63 will be seen this week. More importantly though, the close above the weekly breakdown point at 18.77 that occurred the previous week gave a failure signal against the bears that suggests the stock will mimic the move to the opposite side, suggesting that a rally up to up 24.07 (based on a weekly closing chart) will be seen before any thought is again given to the downside. The stock has been underperforming Gold during this whole rally, suggesting that if the stock reaches the objective mentioned above that consideration to liquidation of the held positions be done. By the same token, if the stock closes clearly above 24.07 on a weekly closing basis, the target would then become 29.40 on an intraweek basis. The stock is showing an island formation on the daily chart, having gapped down on 2/27 from 19.40 to 18.27 and then 2 days later gapping up between 18.48 and 18.90. The formation is powerful if confirmed (new intraweek high above 23.85) but if a drop back down to 18.27 is seen, it would be a strong negative sign, especially if the stock closes now below the 200-day MA, currently at 19.42. The reality is that there should be no weakness seen at this time. Probabilities favor the bulls. CAT made a new 21-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 118,83 will be seen this week. In addition, the stock closed below the 200-week MA, currently at 122.90, that is the first time it has done that since July 2016 (3+ years). If the break is confirmed next Friday with another close below the line, new selling interest will be seen. Going back 10 years, the $115 level has been major support that if broken would change the trend to the downside. Nonetheless, based on the action seen in the chart, a test of that level is highly likely to be seen. It is the mention's target given when the mention first came out. Any confirmed monthly close below 115.41 would suggest a downside target of 83.16, which is where the 200-month MA is currently located. On an intraweek basis, there is support at 117.25, at 116.09 and at a strong double bottom at 111.75/112.06. At present, the chart suggests that a drop down to 116.09 is the most likely scenario. Pivotal resistance is found at 129.56, that if broken would suggest the worst is over. Probabilities favor the bears. CRON managed to stay above the weekly close breakdown point at 5.51, having closed on Friday at 5.81 and $.04 cents below the previous week's close. This whole weekly close area between 5.51 and 5.86 has been a major support area since January 2018 (2+ years) with a total of 5 previous closes in that area. The bulls did manage to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of further upside above last week's high at 6.20 than below last week's low at 5.14. If that occurs and a green close occurs next Friday, it will suggest that a bottom to this downtrend may be established. A weekly close above 6.28 would be confirmation of such an event. Any daily close above 6.02 would generate a V-type bottom on the daily chart and offer a rally up to 6.72. Any daily close above 7.34 would generate a new buy signal. Daily close support of pivotal importance is now found at 5.32. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. CVGW generated a strong down week in which a 25% drop in price was seen from the previous week's close to the low seen during the week. Nonetheless, the bulls managed to rally the stock enough to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 66.75 than below last week's low at 54.33. More importantly, the weekly close on Friday was still above an important weekly close support level between 59.15 and 59.23 that has been seen 3 times over the past 5 years on both a low and a high weekly closing basis, meaning that the downgrade that made the stock drop so precipitously was not sufficiently bearish to break a decent weekly close support level. By the same token, Last week's fall, in addition to break of the 200-week MA that occurred 6 weeks ago, has changed the trend to the point that at best scenario possible is that the stock is in a sideways trading range between $50 and $80 for the rest of the year. Weekly close resistance of some consequence is now found between 66.94 and 67.70, which is likely to be the objective to be reached either this week or no later than 3 weeks from today. On reaching that level, liquidation of the remaining positions should be done given that it would be in the upper 2/3'rds of the trading range to be seen for the rest of the year. The stock did outperform the indexes this week after the downgrade occurred, meaning that the Corona Virus is not likely to impact the stock as much as it is doing to the index market. Any daily close this week below 58.50 would be a negative. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. FNV did not follow through to the downside after the stock closed near the lows of the week the previous week. Instead, the stock generated an inside week and recouped 99.99% of the losses seen the previous week, having closed just $.10 cents from the previous high weekly close. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 122.31 is expected to be seen this week. What was accomplished this past week by the bulls is to build a new and decent intraweek support level at the previous week's low at 104.00, which was needed given that up until the previous week, there was no dependable support on the weekly chart until the 89.46 level was reached. The bulls can now buy with confidence using the 104.00 low as dependable support. The stock did generate a negative reversal day on Friday that could generate some additional downside at the beginning of the week with the $115 as a potential downside or even if additional selling is seen, a drop all the way down to $110. By the same token, the red daily close on Friday was in the upper half of the day's trading range, suggesting a decent possibility of no additional selling being seen on Monday and a rally above Friday's high at 122.31 being seen. If that occurs and the all-time intraweek high at 122.65 is broken, a new leg up will be seen and Friday's low at 115.77 will become the new intraweek support. With Gold having made a new 7-year weekly closing high on Friday, the probabilities favor the bulls. LNTH generated a new 15-month intraweek low and confirmed the previous week's break of the 200-week MA, currently at 16.22. Nonetheless, the bulls managed to rally the stock from the low to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 15.95 than below last week's low at 14.38. The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday, having made the weeks low on that day but then closing green, strongly suggesting that the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the upside. Nonetheless, the confirmed break of the MA as well as the fact the stock has shown "some" sensitivity to the index market action, does suggest that ultimately further downside is to come with the short-term pivotal support at 13.82 being broken and at least a retest of the important and long term pivotal support at 12.59 that would probably be broken as well. As such, this week's anticipated rally back up to test the MA at 16.22 should be used to liquidate the positions and get on the sideline with this stock. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 17.57 that if broken, would signal a turn around to the upside. Original mention's stop loss is at 13.62 that should be maintained at this time unless the indexes open lower and break supports. If that happens, immediate liquidation of the positions should be considered even if the stop loss has not been hit. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week but only for a rally up to 16.22. MCIG generated a new 5-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .039 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the red weekly close was only by $.005 cents and not a strong statement of weakness, meaning that the stock is not rallying mainly because of the weakness seen in the index market and not on the weakness of the stock itself or of the industry. Support is found at .038 and then nothing until .029 and if the latter is broken, the bears will regain control. The industry itself has been weak for the past few months but with the recent drop in the index market, no strong weakness has been seen, meaning that these positions should continue to be held due to the extremely low prices that have a very low probability of weakening further even if the index market continues lower. Short term pivotal resistance is found at .068 that if broken under these circumstances would be strongly indicative of a recovery rally occurring. A drop below .0254 would negate all the gains seen the past 2 months. NEM generated a new 7+-year intraweek and weekly closing high and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 52.50 will be seen this week. There is no intraweek resistance until 57.05 (56.32 on a weekly closing basis) is reached, meaning open air above for another $4.50 gain. The stock generated an island formation 2 weeks ago that was confirmed with the new multi-year high and that gives the bull's full control of the stock until the next resistance level is reached. Above 57.05, there is open air until the $60 level is reached but with the probability of the stock getting up to the $65 level. Some support should now be found at the $50 demilitarized zone that based on the chart should not be broken or even tested until the $57 level is reached. Probabilities favor the bulls. SRUTF generated an uneventful inside week but did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at .1244 than below last week's low at .10. The reality is that at these prices, it is extremely limited what the bears can do and the profit potential to be made but the bulls have very little with which to generate a rally. As such, more of this type of action is likely to be seen with the $.10 cent level as a floor to the downside. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at .1294 that if broken would suggest the .77 low seen 2 weeks ago is now an established bottom. Nonetheless, for any uptrend or recovery rally to occur, the bulls would need to get above .1639. Probabilities favor more of the same as seen this past week.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .97. 2) ARNA - Liquidated at 50.46 (5.04 based on the old prices). Profit on the trade of $548 per 100 shares (3 mentions) minus commissions). 3) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0399. 4) FNV - Averaged long at 90.15 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 119.08. 5) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.81. 6) AU - Averaged long at 19.205 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.06. 7) NEM Averaged long at 43.66 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 52.35. 8) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .1138. 9) CVGW - Averaged long at 80.515 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 61.13. 10) LNTH - Purchased at 16.26. Stop loss at 13.72. Stock closed on Friday at 15.07. 11) CAT - Averaged short at 130.535 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 121.41. 12) AXP - Shorted at 111.61. No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 108.24. 13) CLB - Purchased at 26.51 and at 25.41. Liquidated at 24.42. Loss on the trade of $344 (2 mentions) plus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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