Issue #674
Jun 21, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls Generate Rally. Uptend to Continue or Retest of Highs?

DOW Friday closing price - 25871
SPX Friday closing price - 3097
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 9946

The bulls were able to put a stop on the correction that was occurring, suggesting that the correction may be over. Nonetheless, the green closes seen were uneven given that the DOW and the SPX only appreciated about 1.1% and 1.9% in value while the NASDAQ appreciated 3.6% in value from the previous week's close, opening the door for the thinking that the NASDAQ and the Tech Sector are pulling everything up rather than general market appreciation. All indexes did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside to be seen this week above last week's highs and perhaps a resumption of the uptrend after a new support base may have been built and from which the bulls can buy with limitation of risk.

By the same token, the DOW and the SPX were unable to close the bearish island formations that were created the previous week. The bulls tried to close them on Tuesday and then again on Friday with rallies by the DOW into the gap on Tuesday and up close to Tuesday's rally on Friday and in the SPX with a rally into the gap on Monday and slightly further into the gap on Friday. Nonetheless, the gaps remain unclosed. In the DOW the gap is presently between 26938 and 26611 and in the SPX it is between 3176 and Friday's high at 3155. With the indexes closing on Friday at 25871 and at 3097 and being 4% and 2.5% from closure of the gaps, the probabilities do not favor those gaps being closed, using the rally that was seen last week as a guideline. Normally, traders attempt things on 3 occasions before they give up, meaning they will likely try again this week and likely on Monday. Nonetheless, if the island gaps are not closed, it will be a strong bearish sign as island gaps are the "strongest" chart signal possible in any market when confirmed. Confirmations will not occur until the recent lows are broken but if the bulls fail to close the gaps, those lows will be at least tested and that would weaken the chart as far as a resumption of the uptrend is concerned. Tangible positive news would then be required to close and resume the uptrend and it is unlikely that the next earnings quarter will supply that.

There are no economic reports of consequence this coming week and news of the Corona Virus spreading to new high levels in 12 states has to be considered a negative to the market given that it was believed that the virus was on the way down and that the economy would begin to recover as businesses were reopening. Much of the rally this past week was "smoke and mirrors" with some news of trade purchases from China having been done and the announcement that the Fed was buying corporate bonds (which they had never done in the past. Nonetheless, the corporate bond purchases were not a surprise as they were announced at the previous FOMC meeting press announcement and therefore somewhat factored into the market already.

In my opinion, it is evident that the parties involved in attempting to keep the index market heading higher (the Fed and the Government) continue to release news at pivotal times that seems positive but is not tangibly catalytic in order to keep the bulls buying and the bears with fear of getting aggressive. If that is the case and the coming economic and earnings reports do not support it, the market will head lower. Nonetheless, there is still a bit more than a week until the next ISM Index and Jobs reports come out and more than 3 weeks before the earnings reports start coming out and until then, such tactics will continue to work, with the only question being "how much?". In looking at the weekly chart, it seems highly likely that the indexes will go above last week's highs given that there has not yet been a retest of the recent highs on the weekly chart. A rally above last week's highs will open the door for that occurring. The big question will be whether the island formation on the daily chart will be closed or not. Closure of the island gaps will not be a bullish statement as all it will mean is that a strong bearish signal will be erased but not necessarily a signal that would mean the resumption of the uptrend is to come. A successful retest of the recent highs on the weekly chart would be a signal that some further downside is to be seen below the recent lows and down to the levels of support mentioned in the newsletter the previous week. By the same token, going above last week's highs without closing the island gaps would set up a scenario that would be double bearish and would open the door for the resumption of the bear market downtrend that was signaled in March, and with no lows likely to be made. That is what is at stake this coming week.

It does need to be mentioned again that this market is presently in a major dichotomy given that the Tech industry and the NASDAQ are not showing any of the bear signs that are being shown in the other indexes. The NASDAQ made a new all-time high weekly close this past week and closed just 140 points from the previous week's all-time intraweek high and going above last week's high at 10053 will put the index just 33 points from that all-time intraweek high and there are many fewer fundamental reasons to believe the index won't continue higher given that the Tech industry has actually been helped by the virus (rather than hurt) and that means there are two completely different markets in play. The index is currently in a bull run and no signs that a top to this rally is on the immediate horizon. In this respect, the probabilities actually favor the index continuing higher until the earnings reports on the Tech companies come out and that won't happen until the last 2 weeks of July. Nonetheless, it was reported on Friday that AAPL had to close stores in China where the virus has resurged. Such news could mean that traders may start taking profits at this time due to the resurgence of the virus here in the United States.

It is evident that traders are confused and even more so because of the dichotomy between the indexes that has not been seen since the Dot.com era. Confusion normally leads to a defensive posture and protection of assets and with so much good news for the Tech Industry having occurred and now likely totally factored into the prices, this coming week seems to be a week that the traders may make some short-term decisions that would generate some downside. As such, I am giving the probabilities to the bears this week.


GOLD closed on Friday just $3 below the high weekly close for the past 12 weeks and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside will be seen this week. If the bulls are able to close next Friday above $1756, a new 6-year high weekly close will occur and likely push Gold up to test the $1794/$1797 intraweek high area which is where it got up to back in 2013/2014. On a daily closing basis, resistance is still found at the same $1756 weekly close area but then at $1768, meaning that the bulls still have more upside to do to generate a breakout on the daily chart. Nonetheless, the bears have not been successful in breaking down Gold during the past 3 months and now it seems that they will be working on a breakout. Daily close support is found at $1727 that if broken will give the short-term edge back to the bulls. Probabilities favor the bulls this week with the big question is whether a close above $1756 will occur next Friday.

OIL had an up week all week with 5 green daily closes in a row. Nonetheless, at the end of the week that did not turn into a breakout given that oil still closed below the 3-week high weekly close at 39.55 (closed at 39.45). In addition, oil did make a new 15-week high, above last week's high at 40.44 (got up to 40.49) but the gap down at 41.05 that that occurred the first week of March when the Russians refused to lower production remains unclosed, meaning the bears remain in control. Oil did close near the high of the week and further upside above 40.49 is expected to be seen, meaning there is a good chance that the gap will be closed, which in turn would mean the bears have lost control and normal trading is to resume. By the same token, failure to close the gap will be a big negative as the bulls are committed to that this week and failure would mean weakness in oil prices remains. Pivotal support is now found at 34.36 that if broken would suggest a drop down to the $27 would be seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but the fundamentals remain leaning bearish.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

Once againm no new mentions in the newsletter. There were no decisions made this past week and with a few exceptions, most all stocks are simply making pace and not going anywhere. Once again, there are no potential catalysts scheduled for this week, meaning that traders will continue to look over their shoulders to see what others are doing and following without conviction. At some point and likely soon, this will change but while it is happening, trading is more risky that potentially profitable in either direction.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU made a new 4-week high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 26.48 will be seen this week. Minor resistance is found at 27.03 and then minor to decent at 27.63 and decent as well as pivotal at 28.00. Chart strongly suggests that the stock will get up to at least the 26.88 level where minor to decent daily close resistance is found. Further upside will depend on what Gold does. The stock gapped up on Friday between 24.65 and 25.00 and the gap will remain a magnet unless followed by another gap up and a new high made above 28.00. Probabilities do favor the gap being closed. Short-term pivotal support is now found at 24.08. Probabilities favor the bulls.

AXP did not follow the index rally, having generated another red weekly close and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 97.62 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock remained above the 200-week MA, currently at 98.17, and while that continues, the bulls will have the edge. The stock is still showing an open gap on the weekly chart down at 91.43 that will be a magnet if nothing fundamentally positive comes out. Using the daily chart, there is pivotal support at 97.62 that if broken will give the bears the short-term edge. Chart suggests that a drop down to 98.13 will be seen but there is where the odds start favoring the bulls slightly. Pivotal resistance is found at 109.06 that will tilt the probabilities in favor of the bulls. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.

CAT generated a positive reversal week and a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 132.44 will be seen this week. In addition, the previous week's break of the 200-week MA, currently at 125.40, was negated, with the stock closing on Friday at 127,46. Nonetheless, the situation is different on the daily chart as the stock has now closed below the 200-day MA, currently at 128.82 on 6 of the last 7 days, meaning there are some mixed signals being given. The stock is showing an open gap down at 124.38 that should be closed this week as there is no new positive news to support the gap. Nonetheless, after that happens, it is all about what the index market does. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 118.01 and the same with resistance at 132.44. A break of either is likely to generate at least a $4 move in that direction. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

CNX followed through to the downside and put itself in a position that if further downside in excess of 60 points to the downside is seen, that a breakdown will occur. The stock did close on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 9.76 is expected to be seen. More importantly, any break below the most recent intraweek low at 9.68 would weaken the chart and a daily close below 9.54 would generate a sell signal of some consequence. This means that the bulls don't have a lot of room this week that they can allow without breaking the chart down. Daily close resistance is found at 10.73 that if broken would negate the recent weakness. Probabilities favor the bears but this is a pivotal week.

CRON bulls flirted with danger this week but in the end they were able to at least maintain the support levels of importance. The stock did close near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 6.20 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis, the bulls cannot afford "any" red closes this week as 6.44 is a previous daily closing high and from which the rally up to 8.13 occurred and given that the stock closed at 6.42 on Friday, any daily close below that level will generate a failure signal. On a weekly closing basis though, the level to watch is 6.26. Intraweek resistance is found at 7.17 that if broken and a close above that level occurs, it would negate all of the recent weakness. Probabilities very slightly favor the bears but with this being a pivotal week and the bears unable to break the stock down during the past 5 weeks in spite of the stock being down at these levels every single weekly during that period of time, it does suggest the bulls might be able to do something positive this week.

ENG generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5-week low and then turning around to close in the green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.12 will be seen this week. The stock continues to flirt with the 200-week MA, currently at 1.13, having been above the line on 4 of the last 7 weeks. On a weekly closing basis, and then only for 1 week. Any confirmed close above the line, especially if above the previous high weekly close at 1.19 that occurred last August (the only time the line has been broken during the last 3 years), it would signal the beginning of a bull rally of consequence. Last week's intraweek low at .96 must now be considered pivotal support. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls.

MCIG continues to trade in the .0225 and .035 area that it has been in for the past 14 weeks. Last week though, was the slowest and smallest week during this period of time as the stock traded in a minute between .0261 and .0288. It suggests that this type of action will continue until some catalyst occurs. There is no sign yet that the traders are ready to break above or below that trading range at this time.

MRNA made a new 4-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 66.98 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the minor resistance at 68.49 remains unbroken, meaning that the bulls did not accomplish anything of importance last week. One thing that was accomplished last week is that a new (though minor) close-by support level at 62.58 has been established, meaning that the bulls can come in this week with a bit more confidence in buying with a small risk factor. The fundamental picture remains positive and above 68.49 there is no resistance until the all-time high at 87.00 is reached. The risk/reward ratio is therefore very beneficial this week and the probability favor a strong rally.

NEM generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 57.57 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's low at 53.16 will become the required/needed retest of the recent low at 52.33 and also mean that a new support level of consequence has been built that can be depended on to purchase new positions with some risk limitation. There is no resistance above until 59.88 and then nothing until 64.65. Nonetheless and using the weekly chart (not the daily chart), there is no resistance above until the 64.65 level is reached, suggesting that any rally above last week's high will end up in at least a $7 rally. With Gold also looking to move higher, the probabilities now clearly favor the bulls.

QQQ generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 247.00 will be seen this week. Like with the NASDAQ, the all-time intraweek high is close by above last week's high (it is at 247.82) and if that level is broken, there is open air above. As it is, the stock has now generated 3 weekly closes in a row above the previous all-time high at 237.15 and in those 3 weeks, the previous week was a successful retest of that level, suggesting it is a "rosy picture" for the bulls for much further upside to occur. Evidently, a failure to make a new all-time high this week would be disappointing and probably change trader's minds as the stock has generated a straight up rally from March lows and remains in a highly overbought condition. Pivotal support is found at last week's low at 231.47 that if broken, would not only generate new selling interest but a failure signal as well. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SCCO generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week low and then turning around to close green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 38.38 will be seen this week. On a possible negative note though, the stock confirmed the break of the 200-week MA, currently at 38.10, which occurred the previous week, with a close on Friday at 37.80. If the stock goes above last week's high on an intraweek basis but then generates a red close next Friday, the bears will climb aboard given the failure as well as what would end up being a successful retest of the recent high at 40.31. On a positive note, the stock has traded above the 200-day MA, currently at 35.75, for the past 24 trading days and the line was tested successfully this past week with a drop on Monday to 35.45, meaning that on the daily chart, the bulls have a clear edge at this time. The dichotomy between the weekly and daily chart is likely to be resolved this week, meaning it is an important week. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

W continued to go up like a "feather in an up draft" as it made yet another new all-time high this past week, the 6th over the past 7 weeks. Once again, the stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 212.06 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the upside objective of a recent upgrade is $225 and the downside objective is the previous all-time high is 169.69, meaning the risk/reward ratio is now in favor of the bears given that the profit potential is another $15 dollars and the risk is $40 from Friday's close. The recent rise has been straight up and there is no built support until 167.01, meaning that any pause in the upside momentum could generate a $40-$50 move in a period of 1-2 weeks when the rally stops. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.06.

2) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0275.

3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.42.

4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0498.

5) W - Averaged short at 97.47 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 209.99.

6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 127.46.

7) QQQ - Shorted at 236.38. Averaged short at 207.456 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 244.44.

8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 100.94.

9) AU - Purchased at 23.35. Averaged long at 23.79 (3 mentions). Stop loss at 22.38. Stock closed on Friday at 26.02.

10) NEM - Averaged long at 60.0125 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 56.92.

11) MRNA - Averaged long at 55.395 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 51.69 on a daily stop close only. Stock closed on Friday at 66.35.

12) DD - Covered shorts at 49.42. Averaged short at 48.643. Loss on the trade of $233 per 100 shares (3 mentions) plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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