Issue #667 ![]() April 19, 2020 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
|
Unexplainable Price Recovery Seen!
DOW Friday closing price - 24232
The indexes generated a continuation rally with another strong green close, as well as a close on the highs of the week, that in essence confirmed the negation of the 20% bear market signal across the board, strongly suggested that the bottom is now set with the lows seen 5 weeks ago, and that a V shaped recovery is now a high possibility if not a probability. The problem is that fundamentally this action cannot be explained away given that the economic damage that has occurred has not been even stopped (much less negated) and that it is virtually impossible for the economy to return anywhere near the previous levels in less than 1-2 years and even that is in doubt. Simply stated, the rally is unexplainable technically or fundamentally.
It is evident that the government and the Fed have done everything possible to support the economy and that has given confidence to the investors to buy, given that for the past 11 years all corrections have been followed by huge rallies and new highs made. As such, the rally past established resistance levels may now be more of a learned "addiction" than anything based on sound analysis. Evidently, nothing else can fully explain what happened this past week. Nonetheless and in reading several articles over the past 24 hours, the talk is now turning to the idea that this rally has gone "too fast and too soon" for it to be viable and/or maintained for much longer, which in turn has also created new risk to anyone buying stocks at this level. Simply stated, this past week's rally and the unexpected high weekly closes on Friday, has brought on additional risk that any downturn could lead into a waterfall that cannot be contained.
It also needs to be mentioned that the RUT (small cap company's index) has not followed suit as it has only rallied 39% from the low and in comparison the NASDAQ has rallied 63.5%. In addition the RUT remains in a bear market as the high of this rally has been 1251 and yet it needs to get above 1393 to negate the bear market signal. This fact suggests that this rally in the other indexes is not supported other than perhaps only with the big companies that are being economically supported and helped with the stimulus package. Simply stated, a few companies are likely to be able to survive and prosper after the crisis is over but not the overall business community. This does not support this rally being able to continue as the economy depends as much on the small companies as on the large ones.
Last but not least, the bears in the VIX (Volatility index) have been unable to break the support level generated 4 weeks ago at 36.24, having generated a low this past week at 37.31. This is indicative since the NASDAQ has rallied 2039 points (24% rally) and under normal conditions, the VIX would mimic on the opposite side what the indexes do. As such, this is one more event that does not support the index rally.
I am not going to give you on this newsletter(as I always do) the chart resistance levels above or below on all indexes as it is evident that support or resistance levels have not been adhered to or used by the traders during this past 2 week event. As such, resistance levels above have no meaning at this time under these conditions. Nonetheless and using the NASDAQ as the key index at this time, there is a level below at 8309 that if broken and then confirmed with 2 daily closes in a row below 8330, would likely be a sufficient-enough signal for the bulls to abandon their long positions. This level would mean that the 200-day MA, currently 8405, will have a confirmed break of it to the downside as well as a close below what was considered a previous decent and pivotal daily close resistance at 8330. If this should happen, it would be highly likely the bulls will "give up this ghost ship". With the index closing at 8650 on Friday, it means that only a drop of 341+ points is needed by the bears to "wake up" the bulls from their "smoke and mirrors" rally.
Earnings reports remain a central issue to the market and this coming week is more of a DOW week than anything else as what few semi important earnings reports that are scheduled for this week are all in that index. Nonetheless, all remaining reports of consequence in that index and in the NASDAQ are scheduled for the last week of April and therefore I would be willing to categorize the April 27-April 30 period, the Fourth of July week as that week will have fireworks unlike any ever seen before. Given that this coming week there are no catalytic things scheduled to come out, or events that are likely to disappoint or elate the market, I would venture to say that overall the week is likely to be somewhat uneventful with some green and red (mostly red though) being seen but without anything broken on any direction. With the bulls having accomplished what they needed to accomplish last week and there being quite a bit of room to the downside before any pivotal levels are reached, it would suggest some profit taking from this rally will occur. Drops down to support as well as a bit of base building of a new support base is likely to be seen. It will not be indicative but simply "trading the range".
Nonetheless, always keep in mind the 8309 level in the NASDAQ as that level is now pivotal support. It is unlikely to be seen this week but then the word "unlikely" has now become the "new likely" as little has occurred the past 2 weeks that fits the definition of the word.
OIL made a new 18-year intraweek and weekly closing low, having gotten intraweek down to 17.31 and closing at 18.27, compared with the 2002 lows at 17.15 and 18.000. Oil did close near the lows of the week and further intraweek downside below 17.31 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, this is the next level of important support and its unlikely to be broken at this time, suggesting this coming week is likely to be a positive reversal week. It is important to note that in starting to follow 3 oil related stocks in FANG, PAA and MPC, all those stocks generated a green weekly close in spite of the weakness in oil and even then, those stocks made their multi-year lows 4 weeks ago, suggesting that oil and oil related products are now likely to be bought and no further downside seen. Based on the charts and what happened in 2002-2003, oil is likely to head back up to the $30 level and then after a brief correction, likely to then head back up to the $37 level, all of this to occur over a period of 6 months to 1 year. Any break below the 16.75 level would change the chart picture. It must be mentioned that the monthly closing low seen in 2002 was 19.48 and with the monthly close occurring in 9 trading days, I would expect oil to close there on April 30th and within 2 months to close $10 higher around $27. On a daily closing basis, resistance will now be found at 20.09 and as such, I do not expect any daily close to occur above that level this coming week, meaning a $17 to a 22.00 intraweek trading range but with closes at or below 20.00 every day this week. Nonetheless, this is the time to start picking up some shares of oil related stocks, not to trade but to buy and hold for now.
|
Stock Analysis/Evaluation
|
CHART Outlooks
The mentions this week have nothing to do with the indexes but with Gold and Oil stocks, given that both Gold and Oil have reached (or will reach) levels of support that suggest purchases be made. In Gold, I will be giving mentions in the same stocks that were liquidated the previous week. In oil, mentions will be given on the message board if and when the stocks fall down to desired entry points. I am not mentioning them at this time given that in all 3 cases, those desired entry points are not likely to be reached this week. There is no rush to purchase oil stocks as they are not likely to go up very much in the short term, meaning that getting desired entry points is more important in these stocks than in others.
PURCHASES
AU Friday Closing Price - 21.76
Purchases of AU between 18.00 and 19.00 and using a 16.65 stop loss and having an upside objective of $25 will offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
FNV Friday Closing Price - 124.48
Purchases of FNX around the $115 level and using a stop loss at 109.75 and having a $130 objective, will offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
NEM Friday Closing Price - 59.23
Purchases of NEM between $50 and $52.50 and using a stop loss at 46.95 and having a $64 objective will offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
|
Updates
|
Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA generated a new 6-week high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 49.73 will be seen this week. There was no news about the company so the rally was index driven and likely to end up the same way that the index market does. There is quite a bit of decent intraweek resistance between 50.05 and 51.63 that looks difficult to break above, especially at 50.93 on a weekly closing basis as that was a multi-year high weekly close that help up for over 2 months before being broken. By the same token and on a daily closing basis, there have been a total of 4 previous high or low daily closes 49.68 and 50.18 that have been seen over the past 7 months that strengthen the resistance in that area, not to mention the fact that the 200-day MA is currently at 49.60, making the area a resistance of note. Short term intraweek pivotal support is found at 46.28 (47.17 on a daily closing basis) that if broken would suggest the rally is over. It does need to be noted that the chart is showing a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 39.92 to 49.68 and the flag being the 45.90, meaning that if the flag is broken and confirmed as such, a 55.66 objective is given. With all the resistance found in this area, it will be close to impossible to break without the index market continuing higher, meaning that watching the index market (as well as the resistance levels mentioned) will be the deciding factor on what the stock does here. Based on the close on the high of the week as well as on the bullish flag formation, I have to give the bulls a slight edge for this coming week. AXP ended up having an inside week and a red weekly close and a close that is below a previous close of some importance at 90.45 as well as below the most recent high weekly close at 88.73, suggesting more weakness than strength is being seen. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 93.42 than below last week's low at 80.33. The company reports earnings next Friday before the open and up to now, all financial companies that have reported have gone down in price thereafter but for the first few days of the week, the stock is likely to mimic somewhat what the index market does. The stock gapped up on Friday between 83.94 and 84.28 and that gap is likely to be closed at some point this week. In using the intraday chart, the stock shows some short-term pivotal resistance at 92.50 and pivotal support on all charts at last week's low at 80.33. Probabilities favor the stock trading in that range until the earnings report comes out on Friday. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls. CAT generated a red weekly close, suggesting that some resistance is now found at the recent high weekly close at 125.03 as well as at the 200-week MA, currently at 123.70. The bulls were successful in generating a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 120.05 will be seen this week. In addition and even more positive is that the stock traded below an important low weekly close at 114.06 on Wednesday and Thursday but then the bulls were able to close above that level on Friday. It also needs to be mentioned that the stock gapped down on Wednesday and then gapped up on Friday and that opens up the possibility of a rare island formation having been built that if confirmed would be a bull statement. The company is one of many high rated and catalytic companies that reports earnings the week after next, meaning that this week the stock is likely to follow the lead of the index market. The gap below at 113.47 is a magnet and last week's low at 108.48 is a pivot point support. There is no resistance above of consequence until the recent high at 129.60 is reached. There is some minor intraweek resistance at 123.65 and some minor intraday resistance at 117.84 that if broken would suggest 123.65 will be the next target. As such, covering the recently shorted positions that are profitable around 117.94 (if the intraday resistance is broken) can be considered. Probabilities favor the bulls. CRON, technically speaking, generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green. The low was only $.02 cents below the previous weeks low but technically that can now be considered a successful retest of the recent low at 4.00, if the stock goes above last week's high this week. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and the probabilities do favor a higher high this week than last week's high at 6.19 rather than below last week's low at 5.55. By the same token, it was not an indicative week by any stretch of the imagination, meaning that just about the same situation as seen last week remains in place. Daily close resistance is found at 6.32 that if broken and confirmed, would suggest the downside is over, especially if that occurs now, after an intraweek drop below 5.57 was seen last week. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. ENG generated a new 7-week weekly closing high and in so doing, generated a new buy signal on the weekly chart, having closed above the previous high weekly close at .80. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at .88 is expected to be seen this week. In addition, the stock also gave a now confirmed failure signal against the bears, having closed above the 9-month low daily close at .85 on both Thursday and Friday. There is some minor intraweek resistance at .90 and then nothing until the 1.10 level is reached but on a daily closing basis, there is minor to decent resistance at .99 that is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at .98. If the stock does get above .88 this week, the .76 level on an intraweek basis will become short-term pivotal support. Based on the chart and the double bottom now found at .49/.51, it does seem that the traders will be working to the upside and attempting to get back up to the 200-week MA, currently at 1.14. Major pivotal weekly close resistance is found at 1.19 that if broken, would offer a $1.75 objective. That is not likely to be even attempted for another 3-6 weeks but the chart is now favorable to the bulls. Probabilities favor the bulls. MCIG, based on the weekly close, generated another non-eventful inside week (the 5th in a row), having closed around the same .03 weekly closing area. Nonetheless, the stock did make a new 13-week intraweek low at .224 but then turned around to close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .035 will be seen this week. This past week might turn out to be an eventful week because if the stock gets above .035 this week, a double low at .025/.024 will be created and if the intraweek resistance at .04 is broken, the bulls will see new buying interest come in and likely see the stock climb back up to at least the .05 level. Probabilities favor the bulls. QQQ generated a new 6-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 216.51 will be seen this week. The stock continues to outperform the index but is now reached the next resistance level of some consequence between 218.10 and 218.81, on a daily closing basis. There was no such level in place the last 2 weeks, meaning that the bulls had open air above. Evidently and like the index, the bulls have had their way unexplainably so but now once again, the charts will play a part on what the stock does. The stock gapped up on Tuesday between 203.32 and 206.42 and given that this is the 3rd gap up, it is likely to be a magnet to the downside. With the stock having had almost an $18 trading range last week, it would not be surprising to see the stock have a $200-$218 trading range this week. No retest of the recent low at 164.93 has yet occurred and there are no fundamental reasons at this time for that retest not to occur. Based on the weekly chart, the $180 level remains a viable downside target. Probabilities favor the bulls at the beginning of the week but the bears toward the end of the week. SRUTF had an inside week but nothing has changed. For now and until something new happens, I am going to discontinue the weekly comments on the stock. Nothing has happened but downside for the past 51 weeks and until the industry starts to rally, the stock itself is not likely to do anything of consequence. When something of consequence occurs, I will resume the weekly comments. W generated a strong week in which several possibly bullish things occurred, having closed above the 200-week MA, currently at 86.60, as well as closing above 2 previous low weekly closes at 82.13 and at 83.71, meaning that a failure signal against the bears was given. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 90.16 is expected to be seen this week. If all of this is confirmed this coming week, the chart will turn to sideways from bearish. There is no intraweek resistance above until 98.73 is reached but that level is further strengthened with the 200-day MA, currently at 97.45. Nonetheless, if the indexes continue higher this week, reaching that level is likely. Evidently, the key issue this week will be whether the failure signal is confirmed next Friday or not. A close next Friday is needed by the bears to be below 82.13 in order to keep the bears in control. There is pivotal daily close support at 79.87 that if broken would be a decent negative as it would also give a new sell signal. Like with all shorted stocks, it is what the index market does this week that will determine the outlook for the stock. The stock has appreciated in value 330% over the past 5 weeks and that low has not yet had a retest of it. Charts suggest that a minimum drop down to the $60 level will be seen before there is a possibility of the $100 level getting broken. Probabilities favor the bulls at the beginning of the week but the bears at the end of the week.
|
1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .86. 2) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0301. 3) FNV - Liquidated at 125.15. Averaged long at 87.558. Profit on the trade of $18,815 per 100 shares (5 mentions) minus commissions. . 4) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.98. 5) AU - Liquidated at 24.43. Averaged long at 18.205. Profit on the trade of $2490 per 100 shares (4 mentions) minus commissions. 6) NEM - Liquidated at 61.01. Averaged long at 40.88. Profit on the trade of $2013 per 100 shares (3 mentions) minus commissions. 7) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0611. 8) W - Shorted at 86.48 and at 86.74. Averaged short at 86.61 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 90.08. 9) CAT - Averaged short at 115.342 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 116.30. 10) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 215.29. 11) AXP - Shorted at 86,16. Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 87.39. 12) ARNA - Shorted at 48.73. Stop loss is at 51.76. Stock closed on Friday at 49.73. 13) QQQ - Shorted at 110.06. Covered shorts at 110.91. Loss on the trade of $85 per 100 shares plus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
|
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
![]() |
|
|