Issue #667 ![]() April 26, 2020 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Traders Await Fundamental Reports Week!
DOW Friday closing price - 23775
The indexes generated a red weekly close which does suggest that the momentum of the rally has at least stalled. The NASDAQ did generate a negative reversal week (at least from a technical perspective) given that it went above the previous week's highs but then closed in the red. The red close was not all that convincing though, as it was only by 36 points (.004%). As such, not a lot of confidence can be given to the negative reversal week. In spite of the red weekly closes, all indexes ended up closing on or near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 24198, SPX at 2868 and NAZ at 8684) will be seen this week. With the rally high being in the DOW at 26264 and in the SPX at 2874, it won't take much for the indexes to make new rallies highs this week.
By the same token, lots of fundamental information will be released this week with earnings reports due out in AMZN, AAPL, FB and GOOGL, as well as in BA, GE, MMM, and CAT and economic reports in the ISM Index and Jobs reports. With these reports meaning that the first 3 weeks of the earnings reports are over as well as with the 2 most important economic reports of the month, it is highly likely that by the end of this coming week, things will be set fundamentally and the traders can go back to trading support and resistance levels as well as chart formations.
For the past 2+ weeks, trading has been helter-skelter as no one has ever experienced an economic situation such as this and wild speculation as to the upside and downside possibilities have run the gamut of thinking and trading. Simply speaking, there have been few parameters where trading has followed existing rules and chart guidelines. That is likely to change by the end of this week as the effects of the virus on the economy will finally be shown to a decent degree with these reports, especially the economic ones that will show the full initial impact of the virus on our economy. The earnings reports will only be showing 1/3 to no more than 1/2 of the impact as the virus did not start affecting companies until March, meaning than the January and February income figures will not show a big decline. Either way, some clearer understanding of just how much the economy is suffering will be shown by the end of this week.
There are no clear resistance and support levels to mention at this time as there is quite a bit of open air to the upside on the charts. Nonetheless and considering the closes near the highs of the week, last week's lows are pivotal to the short-term outlook. In the DOW last week's low was 22941, in the SPX it was 2727 and in the NASDAQ it was 8215. Any break of those lows will be a "clear" signal that the rally has ended and that a correction to the rally has begun. With all those levels being quite a bit away from Friday's closes, it is not likely they will be seen during the first 3 days of the week and and using only the earnings reports. Those levels might be in play at the end of the week and off of the economic reports. Earnings reports at this time do not have the catalytic power they sometimes have as some companies (like AMZN) have experienced a strong surge in buying interest due to what they do in a situation where people are contained in their homes. The Tech Industry is actually expected to show better than expected results (not lower).
That is it for this week. There is nothing else to say or even try to speculate on as this situation has never been seen before and there is no history that it can be compared with. By the same token and as stated last week, there is no doubt in anyone's mind that economic damage of great consequence has occurred and the prices presently being seen in the indexes are not supported by much more than wild speculation as well as some manipulation that is going on due to the two things that are never controllable but used often in trading to take advantage of such situations, which is fear and greed. Those two factors have contributed to the extreme swings being seen in the index market. Up until now, those two things were not backed up with tangible information. This week, some of that will be resolved with the reports scheduled.
OIL had a wild intraweek week, having dropped on Monday to -$40 dollars but then rallying by the end of the week to hold itself above an important 20-year weekly closing support between $16 and $18 (closed at 16.94). Intraweek moves are not always indicative and certainly not like weekly closes are, meaning that the drop to a minus price does not reflect anything tangible and of consequence. Oil did close on near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 18.26 is likely to be seen this week. Nonetheless and with a -$40 low seen last week, there is no way to predict or evaluate how low oil could go down this week on an intraweek basis. The 30-year weekly closing low is at 10.79 so there is a possibility that oil could drop down to that level this week. Nonetheless, the only thing the traders can look at for any form of dependable outlook is on a weekly closing basis and on this week and because of the monthly close on Thursday, the bulls need to generate a close above 19.48 to have any hope for some form of a recovery rally in the short to midterm basis. A decisive close below 19.44 on Thursday would suggest oil will trade back down to at least the $13.47 to 14.17 and make the $22-$25 level strong resistance for several (if not many) months. I cannot at this time give any probability assessment as what happened this past week on an intraweek basis has "never" happened before. By the same token, it is not likely that that a minus price will ever be seen again. As such, the $10 level is now likely to be strong support.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
With this week being somewhat fundamentally dependent, and charts not having been dependable of late, there are no probability assessments possible, meaning no trades to suggest at this time. I do believe that after this week and with all reports of importance out, the traders will go back to chart trading thereafter. Nonetheless, with no one having a handle of the problem from a fundamental basis, there is no chart reading to be done.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
I did not update (from last week's newsletter) anything on held stocks other than SRUTF and W, given that none of the other held stocks did anything of any consequence to change last week's comments. In addition, with this being a fundamentally important week but none of the held stocks are reporting earnings, it is likely that most held stocks will react to what the indexes do. As such, below are last week's comments which remain valid for this week, at least as far as from a chart basis. I did update SRUTF and W below because they were the only held stocks that did something unexpected. ARNA generated a new 6-week high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 49.73 will be seen this week. There was no news about the company so the rally was index driven and likely to end up the same way that the index market does. There is quite a bit of decent intraweek resistance between 50.05 and 51.63 that looks difficult to break above, especially at 50.93 on a weekly closing basis as that was a multi-year high weekly close that help up for over 2 months before being broken. By the same token and on a daily closing basis, there have been a total of 4 previous high or low daily closes 49.68 and 50.18 that have been seen over the past 7 months that strengthen the resistance in that area, not to mention the fact that the 200-day MA is currently at 49.60, making the area a resistance of note. Short term intraweek pivotal support is found at 46.28 (47.17 on a daily closing basis) that if broken would suggest the rally is over. It does need to be noted that the chart is showing a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 39.92 to 49.68 and the flag being the 45.90, meaning that if the flag is broken and confirmed as such, a 55.66 objective is given. With all the resistance found in this area, it will be close to impossible to break without the index market continuing higher, meaning that watching the index market (as well as the resistance levels mentioned) will be the deciding factor on what the stock does here. Based on the close on the high of the week as well as on the bullish flag formation, I have to give the bulls a slight edge for this coming week. AXP ended up having an inside week and a red weekly close and a close that is below a previous close of some importance at 90.45 as well as below the most recent high weekly close at 88.73, suggesting more weakness than strength is being seen. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 93.42 than below last week's low at 80.33. The company reports earnings next Friday before the open and up to now, all financial companies that have reported have gone down in price thereafter but for the first few days of the week, the stock is likely to mimic somewhat what the index market does. The stock gapped up on Friday between 83.94 and 84.28 and that gap is likely to be closed at some point this week. In using the intraday chart, the stock shows some short-term pivotal resistance at 92.50 and pivotal support on all charts at last week's low at 80.33. Probabilities favor the stock trading in that range until the earnings report comes out on Friday. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls. CAT generated a red weekly close, suggesting that some resistance is now found at the recent high weekly close at 125.03 as well as at the 200-week MA, currently at 123.70. The bulls were successful in generating a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 120.05 will be seen this week. In addition and even more positive is that the stock traded below an important low weekly close at 114.06 on Wednesday and Thursday but then the bulls were able to close above that level on Friday. It also needs to be mentioned that the stock gapped down on Wednesday and then gapped up on Friday and that opens up the possibility of a rare island formation having been built that if confirmed would be a bull statement. The company is one of many high rated and catalytic companies that reports earnings the week after next, meaning that this week the stock is likely to follow the lead of the index market. The gap below at 113.47 is a magnet and last week's low at 108.48 is a pivot point support. There is no resistance above of consequence until the recent high at 129.60 is reached. There is some minor intraweek resistance at 123.65 and some minor intraday resistance at 117.84 that if broken would suggest 123.65 will be the next target. As such, covering the recently shorted positions on a stock loss at 117.94 can be considered. Probabilities favor the bulls. CRON, technically speaking, generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green. The low was only $.02 cents below the previous weeks low but technically that can now be considered a successful retest of the recent low at 4.00, if the stock goes above last week's high this week. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and the probabilities do favor a higher high this week than last week's high at 6.19 rather than below last week's low at 5.55. By the same token, it was not an indicative week by any stretch of the imagination, meaning that just about the same situation as seen last week remains in place. Daily close resistance is found at 6.32 that if broken and confirmed, would suggest the downside is over, especially if that occurs now, after an intraweek drop below 5.57 was seen last week. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. ENG generated a new 7-week weekly closing high and in so doing, generated a new buy signal on the weekly chart, having closed above the previous high weekly close at .80. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at .88 is expected to be seen this week. In addition, the stock also gave a now confirmed failure signal against the bears, having closed above the 9-month low daily close at .85 on both Thursday and Friday. There is some minor intraweek resistance at .90 and then nothing until the 1.10 level is reached but on a daily closing basis, there is minor to decent resistance at .99 that is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at .98. If the stock does get above .88 this week, the .76 level on an intraweek basis will become short-term pivotal support. Based on the chart and the double bottom now found at .49/.51, it does seem that the traders will be working to the upside and attempting to get back up to the 200-week MA, currently at 1.14. Major pivotal weekly close resistance is found at 1.19 that if broken, would offer a $1.75 objective. That is not likely to be even attempted for another 3-6 weeks but the chart is now favorable to the bulls. Probabilities favor the bulls. MCIG, based on the weekly close, generated another non-eventful inside week (the 5th in a row), having closed around the same .03 weekly closing area. Nonetheless, the stock did make a new 13-week intraweek low at .224 but then turned around to close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .035 will be seen this week. This past week might turn out to be an eventful week because if the stock gets above .035 this week, a double low at .025/.024 will be created and if the intraweek resistance at .04 is broken, the bulls will see new buying interest come in and likely see the stock climb back up to at least the .05 level. Probabilities favor the bulls. QQQ generated a new 6-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 216.51 will be seen this week. The stock continues to outperform the index but is now reached the next resistance level of some consequence between 218.10 and 218.81, on a daily closing basis. There was no such level in place the last 2 weeks, meaning that the bulls had open air above. Evidently and like the index, the bulls have had their way unexplainably so but now once again, the charts will play a part on what the stock does. The stock gapped up on Tuesday between 203.32 and 206.42 and given that this is the 3rd gap up, it is likely to be a magnet to the downside. With the stock having had almost an $18 trading range last week, it would not be surprising to see the stock have a $200-$218 trading range this week. No retest of the recent low at 164.93 has yet occurred and there are no fundamental reasons at this time for that retest not to occur. Based on the weekly chart, the $180 level remains a viable downside target. Probabilities favor the bulls at the beginning of the week but the bears toward the end of the week. SRUTF made a new 6-month high this past week when the company announced an "amendment to the conversion price of its previously issued convertible debentures. The company issued $10,750,000 of the Debentures on October 24th 2018, of which $8,250,000 is currently outstanding and due to mature on October 24, 2020. The Debentures were originally convertible by the holders thereof into common shares of the Company at a price of $0.75 per common shares. The Company and the debenture holders have approved a new conversion price of $0.105 per share". In so making a new 6-month high, a buy signal was given, having broken weekly close resistance levels at .148 and at .175 (closed on Friday at .199). There is one resistance level above at .258 that needs to be broken and confirmed for a failure signal against the bears to be given as well. If that occurs, there is open air up to the .50 level. Weekly close support will now be found at .15. Probabilities favor the bulls. W made a new 7-month high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 123.76 will be seen this week. The stock rallied in price 31% just this past week alone but has rallied 570% over the past 7 weeks. The rally has not been supported by any fundamentally catalytic news other than the fact the company has remained open during the virus run and has seen an increase in online buying interest. Because of that, there has been some buy ratings given but the average of those ratings has been a $75 price target among the 25 analysts following the company. Highest price target among those analysts has been $120 and lowest has been $35. In addition and probably even more the reason for the rally is that this stock was previously a dream stock for shorts and was showing a high 49% short interest number before this run began, meaning there has been a short-covering run of epic proportions due to the straight up move. With the stock closing on Friday at $122, the high end has been reached and based on the present fundamentals of the company, it has been said that $75 is the true value. There is now some intraweek support found between $106 and $107 that is likely to be seen soon but a bounce back up to retest the highs would likely occur from that price before the lower support levels are attempted to be reached. The decent and magnetic support is found between $75 and $80 and given that price is the consensus price worth of the company, that target is a viable downside objective. In addition and in looking at the "weekly" charts today, there is a 2-point trendline that connects 124.30 and having closed at 122.41 on Friday, if that trendline is to be respected by the traders, it can be said that the upside might be over, at least on a weekly closing basis as 122.41 is close enough to generate a 3rd point trendline point on the chart. With fundamentals not supporting this price and the stock having rallied 570% mostly on short-covering, there is an extremely high likelihood of the stock dropping back down at least 38% or 50%, which would mean a drop back down to at least $85 (38% drop) or to 71,70 (a 50% drop). Though the stock is likely to go above last week's high this week, the probabilities strongly favor a red weekly close next Friday.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .866. 2) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0274. 3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.20. 4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .199. 5) W - Shorted at 119.20. 86.48 and at 86.74. Averaged short at 97.47 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 122.41. 6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 114.04. 7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 215.29. 8) AXP - Shorted at 86,16. Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 87.39. 9) ARNA - Shorted at 48.73. Stop loss is at 51.76. Stock closed on Friday at 49.73. 10) QQQ - Shorted at 110.06. Covered shorts at 110.91. Loss on the trade of $85 per 100 shares plus commissions. 11) CAT - Covered shorts at 112.33. Averaged short at 124.03. Profit on the trade of #2340 (2 mentions) minus commissions. 12) TCEHY Shorted at 52.90. Stop loss at 54.35. Stock closed on Friday at 52.85. 13) NEM - Purchased at 58.73. Stop loss at 56.65. Stock closed on Friday at 63.11 14) W - Shorted at 98.16. Covered shorts at 100.35. Loss on trade of $219 per 100 shares plus commissions. 15) W - Shorted at 103.79. Covered shorts at 105.40. Loss on the trade of $161 per 100 shares plus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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