Issue #670 ![]() May 17, 2020 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Top to Rally Found? Negative Reversal in the Tech Sector!
DOW Friday closing price - 23685
The indexes generated a red close across the board, suggesting that a top to the rally is now in place. In the case of the NASDAQ, which has been the leading index, a negative reversal occurred, having made a new 12-week high and then closing red. All economic reports that came out this past week were negative and in most cases, worse than expected and that takes away the idea that the indexes can continue higher at this time. By the same token, the bulls have not given up and at the end of the week they were able to rally enough to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting the possibility of a rally above last week's highs could be seen this week. In the case of the DOW and the SPX, it would not mean new highs but in the case of the NASDAQ that would be of concern to the bears as a new rally high would be made. By the same token and in looking at last week's given upside objective of 9266, a new high would be a possibility without much meaning as last week's high was 9250.
The fundamental reason for the rally is the reopening of the economy that starts this week in many states. The optimism of returning to some kind of normalcy where people are spending their money and keeping companies economically afloat is what the bulls are counting on. It is doubtful that it will turn out to be what the bulls would like it to be (in other words, viable) but hope is what is keeping the bulls buying. Nonetheless, the reality is that a red weekly close did occur and looking exclusively at the close itself and the weakest of the three indexes, being the DOW, a sell signal was generated with the index closing below the most recent low weekly close at 23743 and that in and of itself, would suggest that the bears now have a slight edge.
There are no economic reports of consequence this coming week and therefore, the probabilities favor it being a chart week. Evidently with the indexes all closing in the upper half of the week's trading range, the expectations are for higher highs than the previous week. By the same token, all indexes broke the 200 10-minute MA's to the downside on Wednesday and in the case of the NASDAQ, which is the lead index, the line was tested successfully on Wednesday with a high of 9074, meaning that if both the line and that retest high are broken, the recent rally high will be tested and likely broken but if not broken, the selling interest would come in anew immediately.
Everything remains centered around what the NASDAQ does and doesn't do. Then again and with the index greatly outperforming all the other indexes during this rally, it is evident the index has to do something truly spectacular for the other indexes to follow. It is interesting to note that on Friday, the DOW was outperforming all the other indexes but by the end of the day that had turned around to what it has been recently. This strongly suggests that the traders do not presently have a clear vision of what is to happen, which in turn also means that charts, to a certain respect, are somewhat unreliable at this time as traders do not have a firm grip on what to expect. The normal things that are generally depended on, such as a close in the upper half of the week's trading range suggesting further upside will be seen the following week, is not as dependable as it normally is.
There are a few clearly defined things to also watch this coming week that are important. To begin with, all indexes went above Thursday's highs on Friday and that means that a successful retest of the recent highs will occur on the daily chart, if and when this rally fails to make new highs and a previous daily low is broken. Secondly, the NASDAQ did close the open gap at 8715, which is also where the 100-day MA is currently at. If the bears can take the index below last week's low at 8705, it will be a clear chart sign that the rally is over and that the downside will be explored. As such, there are 3 clear points to watch in the index this week. The first is if the minor intraweek resisetance at 9074 is broken it would suggest a rally to and likely above last week's high at 9250 will occur. The second point to watch is if the index gets above the recent high at 9250, to see if the upside objective at 9266 holds the index down. The third point to watch is 8705 as a break of that level would give the bears the edge.
All of this trading uncertainty, which I do not remember ever seeing before to this degree, is simply because the traders have nothing fundamentally tangible to grab onto and are "flowing with the wind with hopes held high" as it moves back and forth. One thing that can be counted on is if the reopening of the economy brings on an increase in infections, the traders will immediately turn bearish. Otherwise, this uncertainly will continue until such a time that new economic and earnings numbers come out and show how bad (or how not so bad) things are. The bears remains with the slight edge in probability because there is no doubt that we are in a recession and even the most optimistic cannot support a V-shaped recovery. As such, I would venture to say again that the probabilities favor the bears this week.
OIL had a strong week, having rallied to close 16% above the previous week's close. The 1996 high at 26.74 was broken on Thursday and with open air above, oil easily rallied up to the next weekly close resistance level at 29.44, which is where oil closed on Friday. This does suggest that the 1996 high is no longer in the minds of the traders and that they will be trading off of more recent levels of support and resistance. Having said that, oil will now likely trade around the support levels seen between 2000 and 2004, which are around $27 and the resistance levels seen in 2004 around $36, with the important pivotal low weekly close seen in February 2016 at 29.44 as the short-term pivotal point. Simply stated and using the weekly closing chart, oil should trade between $27 and $36 for the next few months with 29.44 being the pivot point as to whether $27 will be seen first or $36 being seen first. Oil closed at 29.43 on Friday, meaning that next Friday's close will be pivotal as far as short-term direction. My belief is that the bulls are not yet ready to make any kind of a short-term bullish statement, suggesting that a red weekly close will be seen next Friday and a drop back down to the $27 level will occur in order to build a new support base (rather than using the one from 2004) so that new buying interest can be done with some confidence based on the fundamentals in place now. Oil did close on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 29.92 is expected to be seen. Intraweek resistance is found at 32.12 that should stop the rally and cause oil to turn back down to close red next Friday and continue lower the week after to the $27 level.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week but some charts are starting to clear up and given some dependable signals, meaning that I might give a mention or two this week on the message board. In addition, there are a few stocks that are running (such as NEM and MRNA) where additional purchases can be made if a close by support level gets built. It is also possible that some new purchases in the Cannabis industry might become available is last week's action is confirmed. If any of this happens, I will give the mentions on the message board or on next week's newsletter.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-month intraweek high and then going below the previous week's low and closing red. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 44.79 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and on an intraweek basis, the stock has gotten down near an area of support between 43.09 and 44.31 that could hold up unless the indexes take a strong turn downward. As such, if the stock does go below last week's low this week, consideration should be given to taking profits. Main objective of the mention will have been achieved. Intraweek resistance is found at 49.70 but on a daily closing basis, resistance is found at the 200-day MA, currently at 48.30. By the same token, if the stock gets below 43.09, further downside would likely be seen with a potential target of $35. Probabilities favor the bears this week. AXP made a new 6-week low and almost reached the mentions objective at $75 with a drop down to 76.00. The stock bounced up to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 87.65 than below last week's low at 76.00. Nonetheless, the objective given was based on a weekly close and having closed on Friday at 82.22, it cannot yet be said the objective has been reached. The stock will be sensitive to what the DOW does and the outlook for the index remains short-term bearish. By the same token, the almost $8 bounce up from $76 does suggest that the $75 is probably going to be "it" for the downside, meaning that any drop back down near that level should be considered an opportunity to take profits. On the other side of the coin, the stock did close the gap at 83.10 on Thursday and closed on the high of the day but did not see follow through on Friday in spite of the index rally at the end of the day, suggesting that Thursday's high at 83.90 is a pivot point where a mental stop loss can be placed at 84.00, given that above 83.90 there is absolutely no resistance above until 89.66 is reached. Probabilities slightly favor the bears but the bounce was of note and it can be said that the downside objective has been neared or reached and no further downside below that area will be seen. CAT made a new 7-week low and got down to the mention's objective at $100 with a low last week at 100.22. The bulls got involved and were able to generate enough buying to close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 110.77 will be seen this week. If that occurs and a green close occurs next Friday, it will be a tangible sign that a retest of the March low will have occurred. Nonetheless, the stock still generated a red weekly close and on a weekly closing basis, there is no support at Friday's close at 107.92, which in turn suggests further downside is still likely to be seen, at least on a weekly closing basis as the closest established weekly close support is at 104.85. The key this week is at 112.20/112.11, based on an intraweek and daily closing basis respectively, as a break and close above those levels would generate a new buy signal. Probabilities still slightly favor the bears. CRON had an important week and it can be said that the bulls won the battle. The stock generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 7-week low and then turning around to close green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5.55 will be seen this week. The reversal was supported with news as the company reported better than expected sales (about 13% higher than expected) and that gave the bulls confidence in buying the stock. If the stock goes above last week's high, last week's low at 4.62 will become a successful retest of the 4.00 low seen in March. More important and on a chart basis, the 29-month weekly closing low at 5.26 was not broken in spite of the fact the stock traded below that level every day of the week except Monday. The green weekly close does suggest that weekly closing low has been tested successfully and that the traders will now begin to key on testing and breaking the upside resistance levels above. On an intraweek basis, there is no resistance of consequence until 6.20 is reached, meaning that there is basically open air above for another 60 points. Support will now be found between 4.98 and 5.14 that if the rally is confirmed, should no longer be broken. Probabilities favor the bulls. DD generated a negative reversal week, having gone above last week's high and below last week's low and then closing red. Nonetheless, with the stock closing near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high 47.59 being expected to be seen this week, the negative reversal is not dependable. This is the same thing as what happened to the NASDAQ and therefore the same outlook as for the index is what the traders will be looking for this week. It should be mentioned that the downside objective of a drop down to 40.00 was not accomplished as last week's low was 41.83, meaning that the bears still have the edge. Pivotal resistance is now found at 49.13 that if broken would suggest a rally back up to the $54/$57 level would ensue, meaning that a stop loss at 49.33 should now be instituted. The probabilities still slightly favor the bears. ENG generated a new buy signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed above the most recent high weekly close at 1.02 on Friday (closed at 1.05). In addition, the week's high was the same as the previous week at 1.18 and with the 200-week MA currently being at 1.14, the bulls continue to get closer to a small breakout of consequence. The stock has not closed convincingly above the line for 3 years in a row and now the bulls have been able to get up (and above) the line twice in the past 2 weeks. There is pivotal weekly close resistance at 1.19 and any close above that level would open the door for a spike rally up to the 1.70 level. The stock has now closed above the 200-day MA, currently at .98, for 14 days in a row and did generate a successful retest of the line on Thursday with a close at 1.00, followed with a green close on Friday. As such, the chart is now totally fulfilled to the downside and the traders are now likely to explore a breakout to the upside, to likely happen sometime in the next 2-3 weeks. Probabilities favor the bulls. MCIG generated a key positive reversal, having made a new 5-week low and the closing green and above last week's high and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .03 will be seen this week. This does reflect the action seen in CRON that does suggest a high possibility that the stocks in the Cannabis Industry are in for some type of rally. The chart suggests that a rally up to the 6-week resistance at .04 is to be seen at this time. With the 200-day MA, currently at .039, it is evident that a break and close above .04 would now be a short-term bull statement. Given that a positive reversal occurred this past week, last week's low at .0235 is now considered pivotal support. Probabilities favor the bulls. MRNA made yet another new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 68.49 will be seen this week. The stock built a bullish flag formation during the week, having dropped down to 60.29 on Wednesday and trading between the high and the low during 4 of the 5 days of the week. A break above 68.49 gives an 83.77 objective. By the same token, the 60.29 level is now pivotal support, meaning that a stop loss at 59.65 can now be used. Probabilities favor the bulls. NEM generated another new 8+-year weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 68.47 will be seen this week. There is no intraweek resistance until the all-time intraweek high at 71.54 (69.61 on a weekly closing basis) is reached. With Gold also having made a new multi-year weekly closing high last week, getting up to the all-time high is now a high probability for either this coming week or the next. Pivotal support is now found at 61.83 that if broken would suggest a high is in place. As such, a break of that support by more than 10 points would suggest taking profits on the subsequent rally. Probabilities favor the bulls. QQQ generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-month intraweek high and then closing red. Nonetheless and like the NASDAQ, the bulls were able to rally and generate a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 228.10 than below last week's low at 215.99. Upside objective potential remains at 229.32, which would mean closure of the March gap. Once again, if the gap is not closed and another red weekly close occurs next Friday, it would be a tangible sign that the rally has run its course. Downside objective remains the 193.97 level, which first in well with the existing intraweek support at 193.79. A failure to go above last week's high this week, would be a strong negative sign. Probabilities slightly favor the bears. W generated a negative reversal week, having gotten to the bottom of the $200 general resistance zone (saw a high at 197.06) and then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 165,00 will be seen this week. In addition and toward the end of the week after selling had already been seen, Citigroup downgraded the stock from neutral to sell with a $130 downside target. On a positive note for the bulls though, the previous all-time high weekly close is at 169.83 and having traded below that level on Friday (after the downgrade occurred) and the bulls still being able to rally and close above that level (closed at 173.10) does suggest the traders remain generally bullish, or at least supportive, of these prices. With the stock likely to go below last week's low, the previous 52-week daily closing high at 161.71 will be a potential and even likely downside objective for this week. A confirmed daily close below that level would be a strong short-term negative sign that would suggest the stock would drop down to close the gap from the first week of May at 134.50 and therefore fulfill the downgrade target of Citigroup at $130. To the upside, there is minor resistance at 182.44. Probabilities favor the bears but the charts have not been dependable of late.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.05. 2) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .03. 3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.53. 4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .038. 5) W - Averaged short at 97.47 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 173.10. 6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 107.92. 7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 223.97. 8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 82.22. 9) ARNA - Shorted at 48.73. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 47.26. 10) QQQ - Shorted at 127.94. Covered shorts at 219.85. Profit on the trade of $809 per 100 shares minus commissions. 11) NEM - Purchased at 65.19. Averaged at 61.96. Stop loss now at 61.83. Stock closed on Friday at 67.90. 12) MRNA - Purchased at 61.68. Averaged long at 55.395. Stop loss now at 51.69 on a daily stop close only. Stock closed on Friday at 59.25.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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