Issue #668
May 3, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


No Positive Surprises in Economic/Earnings Reports. Bulls Have no new Ammunition!

DOW Friday closing price - 23723
SPX Friday closing price - 2830
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 8604

The indexes generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 8-week high and then closing red and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows will be seen this week (DOW below 23645, SPX below 2830 and NASDAQ below 8566). More importantly, the indexes generated the second red weekly close in a row, confirming that the high weekly closes seen 3 weeks ago (DOW at 24242, SPX at 2874 and NAZ at 8650) are now a likely top to this rally. These red weekly closes are particularly indicative given that it was the end of the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter, one of the two most important economic reports came out (the ISM Index), a medicine with decent results in curing the virus was released (Remsidivir), and that the best good news possible about the reopening of the economy occurred this week. There are no other events or reports that can come out during the next few weeks that could give the bulls new ammunition to attempt a new rally higher. This was, within the context of possible-good-news-in-this-negative-economic-malaise, the best possible scenario possible and yet a negative reversal week occurred.

If the bears are successful in taking the indexes below last week's lows, it will be the first time that has happened in the SPX and the NASDAQ in this whole rally run from the lows made in March and would suggest that some type of a retest of the lows is to occur. How much and how close to the lows will be seen is not yet clear but technically speaking and with the confirmed negative economic scenario the nation (and the world) is facing, a retest of the lows is a requirement before any concentrated and confident buying can then occur. Simply stated, this rally has been mostly "smoke and mirrors" and the traders must then uncover how much of it is real and how much is fiction.

Chart-wise, there are a lot of magnets on both sides that will now be explored for validity. To the downside, all indexes are showing a breakaway/runaway gap formations to the upside with the DOW being at 19121/19646 (breakaway) and at 21447/21679 (runaway), the SPX being at 2300/2344 and at 2538/2566, the NASDAQ being at 6984/7167 and at 7518/7617. With no possible new positive news scheduled to be released over the next few weeks, the runaway gaps are highly likely to be tested with a drop of as much as 2100 points in the DOW, as much as 256 points in the SPX and as much as 1000 points in the NAZ. More importantly, such a drop is not seen as a negative statement but simply a chart probability, meaning that the overall recovery from the lows seen in March would still have a positive basis. Should those gaps be closed, it would still not be a bear statement as new lows would have to be made for that to occur. Given that the bear market signals that were given have now seen a confirmed negation on all charts, a bear market continuation is not at this time in place chart-wise. Fundamentally, it is still in question but more negative news would be needed to reaffirm a bear market signal and the earnings and economic reports that have come out do not suggest that is the case.

To the upside and as far as gaps are concerned, all indexes gapped down on Monday and under normal conditions and without any negative catalytic news, these gaps would likely be closed this coming week. Nonetheless and much like the gaps below that have not been closed, they were likely created because of extreme overbought or oversold conditions and the possibility of them not being closed at this time is relatively high, especially if a new gap down is seen this week. That is a real possibility given the close on the lows of the week and no news due out at the beginning of the week. If that occurs, the same identical scenario to the upside and to the downside would be in place, to be resolved in the future with tangible negative or positive news.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows resistance at 24264 and decent at the rally high at 24764, the SPX now shows resistance at 2879 and decent at the rally high at 2954, and the NASDAQ now shows resistance 8670 and decent at the rally high at 8957.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor but pivotal support at 22941, the SPX shows minor but pivotal support between 2721 and 2727 and the NASDAQ now shows minor support at 8308 and the minor to decent as well as pivotal at 8215.

The NASDAQ and the Tech Sector have evidently been leading the rally on the way and the index has accomplished much more than the others and that is not likely to change at this time. As such, the index will be the one that the traders pay attention to. A minimum downside target this week will be the 200-day MA, currently at 8426. All other indexes are below the MA line but not the NAZ. As such and considering the importance of that MA line, that will be a clear target this week. On an intraweek basis, there is some support at 8308 and on a daily closing basis (and mentioned several times over the past few weeks), there is semi important support at 8330, that if broken and confirmed would generate a short-term failure signal of consequence that would likely thrust the index down to the runaway gap at 7617. As such, the probabilities favor the index being down at least somewhere between 200-300 points at some point this week.

There is still one big economic report due out this week in the Jobs report that is due out next Friday. Nonetheless and with over 40 million jobs already lost, even if the Jobs reports comes in better than expected (-21 million), it is not likely to be a positive catalyst. This past week, most economic reports did come out slightly better than expected and the indexes still reacted negatively. As such, it is unlikely the traders will be waiting for the report to be a positive catalyst.

In my opinion, the traders will now be looking downward in trying to find and build a new and dependable support base from which to launch a new attempt to generate a recovery rally that is viable for the future but with nothing at this time to grab onto fundamentally, finding and then building a support base is the most important thing on their minds right now. Where that support base is built is somewhat of a mystery presently but there seem to be only 3 possibilities 1) at the MA line in the NAZ (unlikely), 2) at the runaway gaps area (50-50 or 40-60 probability) and 3) near or at the previous March lows. Whether the gaps above from Friday are closed or not, will likely become clear in the first 2 days of trading this week, but overall it does seem that at this time the bears will have the edge.

I also want to state that there is a seasonal tendency for a correction beginning this month as there has been a long standing adage of "Sell in May and go away". This present circumstances are unique and therefore seasonal tendencies are not dependable, but given the chart picture given above, it does stand to reason that this adage may play out this year as it has done in other years.

Probabilities favor the bears this week


GOLD generated an uneventful inside week where nothing was broken to the upside or the downside, either on an intraweek or daily/weekly closing basis. Nonetheless, Gold closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at $1676 than above last week's high at $1745. Like with the index market, there are no catalytic economic reports this week, meaning no reason for the traders to move Gold indicatively in either direction. By the same token and on a chart basis, Gold is closer to pivotal supports than resistance as a confirmed daily close below $1682 or a weekly close below $1672 would give the bears new ammunition to take it lower. With Gold closing at $1700 on Friday, it would not take much for that kind of a signal to occur. To the upside, the bulls have not been able to do anything of any consequence for the past 13 trading days, suggesting the ammunition for new 7-year highs is not available at this time. Gold would need to get and close above last week's high at $1745 to generate new chart buying interest. As such, the bulls are playing more of a defensive game this week than an offensive one. Probabilities slightly favor the bears but it is unlikely that a break of support occurs. Sideways trading is the probability.

OIL generated a green weekly close as well as an intraweek retest of the 27-year $10 support level that had been broken the previous week but not confirmed, suggesting that most (if not all) of the necessary chart action to build a new support level has occurred. This action, if confirmed this week with another green weekly close above 16.94, would give the bulls reason to start buying dips with some confidence. Nonetheless, the upside remains limited at this time with the $22 to $25 levels being resistance that will require new and positive fundamental changes in order to break above. The rally and green close occurred on Friday after the agreed-to production cuts began to be seen. Nonetheless, this still leaves an oversupply in the market that is not likely to be alleviated unless demand picks up (unlikely while the Corona Virus remains a problem) or further cuts happen (unlikely at this time). As such, it can safely be speculated-on that oil will trade with an intraweek floor at $16 and a ceiling of $25, with more of a probability of a $4 trading range between $18 and $22, based on weekly closes. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

It seems now highly likely that the upside run in the index market has found a top and that a retest of the low is now to occur. As such, short positions are the way to go. By the same token, the portfolio is already heavily short and in losing positions in most cases, so being aggressive at a time of great confusion and uncertainty is dangerous. In addition, I did look at about 40 different stocks this weekend and did not find more than 1 stock (given below), that is showing good risk/reward ratios. In fact, some of the presently held short stocks, such as AXP and W, show as much or more potential for downward movement than many of the other stocks I researched this weekend. This means that if you want to be aggressive to the short side, adding positions to the existing shorts is the best strategy. If that is of interest to you, check out the existing held stocks comments below for possible entry points, stop loss points and objectives.

I did come up with 2 mentions this week and one of them is for a new short position. The stock shows high promise for some downside and is relatively inexpensive compared to the presently held shorts, meaning that it should be considered strongly as it takes less money and has less risk than the others. I also included a buy mention in a stock that is closely tied to the Corona Virus medical solution and should gain in price because of it.

PURCHASES

MRNA Friday Closing Price - 47.93

MRNA, as explained in the message board, is a company that began trading in December 2018 with a lot of fanfare due to the amount invested in the company and the people involved. It is a company with a novel technology for introducing reagents into the body that help the body cure itself.

From a chart point of view, MRNA got down to a low of 17.91 in the 3rd week of February and since the stock has been on a mission to the upside with the stock more than tripling in value as it reached 56.38 3 weeks ago. Last week was an inside week with a red weekly close, with a close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, which does suggest a lower low than last week will be seen this week, and a good opportunity to purchase. By the same token, on Friday it was announced that the company had received $483 million from the government to come up with a vaccine for Covid-19, which they expect to have before the end of this year. In addition and on the same day, it was announced that the company has signed a deal with a Swiss company to produce over 1 billion doses per year of the vaccine, which if it works, should give a strong boost to income of the company, not to mention worldwide recognition.

All this news seems to have come out before the close on Friday and therefore likely to be already factored in to the price. Nonetheless, I cannot verify if this is correct at this time, meaning that the desired entry point I will give below may not be available on Monday. Chasing the stock may be an option but that is not something I can opine on at this time, not knowing the opening price.

MRNA has been having wide trading ranges for the past 9 weeks and that is expected to continue. Before all this news came out, the stock broke out of a 7-week trading range with a triple intraweek high the $35-$36 level that offered an upside objective of $52, which has been reached and surpassed. Presently and on the daily chart, the stock is showing a bullish flag formation with the flag being the rally from 31.32 to 56.38 and the flag being the trading range the past 9 trading days back down to 43.11. This suggests that if the top of the flag at 56.38 is broken, an upside objective of 69.65 will be given.

MRNA closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of the stock going below last week's low at 45.01 than above last week's high at 51.70. If that occurs, it will be a great opportunity to purchase the stock with a small amount of risk and a high profit potential based on the probable upside chart objective. Nonetheless, I do not know at this time if the news that came out on Friday came out early enough to be factored into the price or not, meaning that the desired entry point may not be available on Monday. Chasing the stock is an option but not something I can speculate on at this time without seeing where the stock opens up on Monday. As such, I will give the mention based on what the chart suggests is the best entry point at this time.

Purchases of MRNA below last week's low at 45.01 and using a stop loss at 43.01 and having a 69.65 objective will offer a 7-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest.

SALES

DD Friday Closing Price - 45.08

DD has underperformed its index as it has rallied 57% from the March low while the DOW has rallied 73%, meaning the stock remains one of the week ones in the index. In addition, the stock has dropped 72% from the all-time high seen over 2 years ago at 109.63 (based on a weekly close), meaning that there have been some fundamental problems with the company as the stock did not participate fully in the rally seen at the end of last year.

DD made a new 10+ year low in March, whereas the DOW only made a new 4-year low, once again showing fundamental weakness but like other potential stocks to be shorted, the stock has not yet shown any retest of the recent low of 28.33. In looking at the 10-year chart, back in 2009/2010, the stock was also showing some weakness but a double bottom on the weekly closing chart was built at 32.69/31.97 which was subsequently tested with a drop down to 34.88. Such a situation is likely to happen now again, if and when no new lows are made (not yet a given). In 2010, DD generated what turned out to be a 3-month double high on the weekly closing chart at 44.35/44.47 that did generate a move back down to 32.69. Subsequently and after that double high was broken, the stock did drop back down to 31.97, from which a bounce occurred. The subsequent retest of that low brought about a drop to 34.83 before the stock began a bull run to the upside. The situation now is actually worse than it was then for the stock, meaning that a drop back down to the $35 level seems to be the minimum to occur, if and when the indexes are also generating a correction back down (likely).

As far as a desired entry point and stop loss point, evidently the recent intraweek high in DD at 49.17 should now be seen as a resistance area of consequence. From a psychological point of view, the $50 level has to be considered a decent resistance by itself. In looking at the intraday chart, the stock broke the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 45.92, on Friday, which was the first time in 10 days that the line got broken. There is resistance above the line at 47.22 that should not be broken. As such, a sensitive stop loss can be put at 47.35, a decent stop loss can be put at 49.27 and a decent to strong stop loss can be placed at 50.35.

As far as support in DD is concerned, there is "very minor" support at 42.06 and then open air until 34.83, meaning that the downside has no potential chart obstacles to reaching the objective. As such, the question is more about whether further downside below 34.83 will be achieved or not, given the innate fundamental weakness of the stock.

The desired entry point is the big question. Evidently a rally back up to the 200 10-minute MA at 45.92 is a real possibility and therefore would be the most desireable entry point but it may not be achieved, meaning that consideration should be given to shorting the stock around Friday's close at 45.07. With a $35 objective, the potential profit is $12, meaning that choosing the stop loss point is the big question. At 47.35 the risk would be around $230 with a $1235 potential profit, meaning a 5-1 risk/reward ratio. With a stop loss at 50.35, the risk/reward ratio is only 2.5-1 if entering the position at Friday's close. I do rate this trade highly, so it is your choice where to get in.

Probability rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018: Profit of $1,637 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2019: Profit of $13,051per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted

Status of account for 2020, as of 4/1

Profit of $7597 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for April per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

W (short) $652
W (short) $701

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

FNV (long) $8840
NEM (long) $1914
AU (long) $2797

Total Profit for April, per 100 shares and after commissions $14904

Closed out losing trades for April per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

W (short) $1724
IBM (short) $7
QQQ (short) $99
W (short) $230
W (short) $175

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

NONE

Total Loss for April, per 100 shares, including commissions $2235

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 4/30

NEM (long) $75
TCEHY (short) $28

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

AXP (short) $1320
CRON (long) $36

Total $1459

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 4/30

W (short) $7970
ARNA (short) $24
AXP (short) $509

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

QQQ (short) $5183
CAT (short) $2029
MCiG (long) $28
SRUTF (long) $6
ENG (long) $12

Total $15780

Status of trades for month of Apri8l per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtracted.

Loss of $1605

Status of account/portfolio for 2020, as of 4/30

Profit of $5992

per 100 shares.



Updates on Held Stocks

ARNA generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 11-week high but then going below the previous week's low and closing near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 46.63 will be seen this week. One of the things that the bulls wanted to accomplish was closure of the weekly gap between 52.01 and 51.39 that was looming as a big chart negative. That closure was accomplished with the intraweek seen at 53.00 that was seen last week. Nonetheless and like with many other stocks, the recent 2-year low at 32.95 has not been tested yet and there is an open weekly gap below between 45.44 and 46.11 that is a magnet for closure this week. The mention's main objective was a drop down to the $43 level where there is decent support from 3 previous important intraweek lows at 42.48, 43.09 and 43.01. The probability of those levels being reached is high. Nonetheless, the probabilities actually favor those levels being broken and a drop back down to the 200-week MA, currently at 35.15, especially if the stock breaks the 42.48 level as there is open air below until 35.04 is reached. The pivotal support at 42.48 is what the traders will be keying on this week. To the upside, there are 2 resistance levels to watch at 50.68 and at 51.63. If the latter is broken, the chart outlook will change. Right now, the probabilities of a drop down to $43 this week are high. Probabilities favor the bears.

AXP continued to trade in wide trading ranges without any signal of direction, with last week trading in a $14 trading range and the average trading range the past 8 weeks being around $19. Nonetheless, once again no resistance or support levels were broken in either direction with there now being 3 lower highs and 3 higher lows made during the past 31 trading days. If anything, the formation is actually quite bearish as an inverted flag/triangle formation is in place with the flagpole being the drop from 138.13 to 67.00 and the flag/triangle being the rally up to 99.69 and the most recent low at 79.47. If 79.47 is broken, it would offer a 22.47 objective. Evidently and with such a strong company as AXP is, the chances of a drop down to the $22 are insignificant but it does need to be mentioned that overall, the chart looks highly negative. Unlike other stocks, the chart of AXP does show a possible successful retest of the March low as 3 weeks ago and on a week where the trading range was very small (less than $6), the stock did go below a previous week's low. This means the low that week at 79.47 is super pivotal for the short-term. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 82.34 than above last week's high at 96.39. If the stock does go below last week's low this week, all eyes will be on that 79.47 low because if that low is broken, there is open air down to the $72 level. If last week's low is broken but the 79.47 level is not, any rally would then be reason to consider taking profits and getting totally out of the short shares. There is some support at 81.81 that is a likely target for this week. That level could be the key. Probabilities favor the bears this week for at least a break below 82.34.

CAT generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 109.73 will be seen this week. More importantly, if the stock does go below last week's low (likely), then last week's high at 120.82 will become a successful retest of the intraweek high at 129.60 that was made 5 weeks ago. Such a scenario shows that short-term pivotal support is found at 108.60 that if broken would leave open air below until the $100 level and would open the door for a drop all the way down to $90-$91 level, where some previously established support is found (the support at $100 is minor). This would mean that end result of a break below 108.60 would end up being necessary/required retest of the March low at 87.50. To the upside and considering that the stock gapped down between 115.33 and 114.59, there is resistance at 117.07 that would become the upside objective if the traders decide to close the gap. With the stock now showing 3 red weekly closes in a row in spite of rallies in the index market, the probabilities strongly favor the bears this week.

CRON generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 10-week high and then turning down to close red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.49 will be seen this week. The action seen was certainly short-term bearish given that the bulls tried to close an important downside gap between 7.10 and 6.74 but failed, having rallied this week to 6.72 and then reversing downward. The action suggests that the fundamental picture in the Cannabis industry has not changed. By the same token and from a potentially longer term positive outlook, the stock had not yet generated a successful retest of the $4 low as each low seen the previous 5 weeks had been higher than the previous week's low. Now that the stock has gone below a previous week's low, any reversal back up will generate that retest. From a positive point of view on the charts, there is short-term pivotal weekly close support at 5.57 that was not broken on Friday (stock closed at 5.64) and that suggests this week is likely to be a positive reversal week with a lower intraweek low but a green close next Friday. Intraweek support of some consequence is found at 5.12, suggesting that is the probable target for the downside this week, followed by a recovery toward the end of the week.

ENG continued its recovery, having generated a new 8-week weekly closing high and in so doing, also generated a failure signal against the bears, having closed above the weekly close breakdown point at .94 that caused the stock to drop down to the $.50 cent level. By the same token, the bulls were unable to make a bull statement as they needed a weekly close above 1.02 to generate that, meaning that the probabilities now favor more back and forth action for the next few weeks between $.90 and $1.10 (on an intraweek basis) before anything new and of consequence is seen. Overall though, the stock has now built a very strong base (bottom) at the $.50 cent level that ultimately suggests that a breakout and rally up to the $1.70 will occur before too long. Probabilities favor a sideways trading range as stated above for this week and perhaps the next.

MCIG remains stuck is a very narrow trading range between .02 and .035 where it has traded now for the past 6 weeks. There is nothing on the chart at this time that suggests that will change this week. Nonetheless and as mentioned before, CRON is one of the key stocks in the Cannabis market and this stock is likely to follow that stock closely, meaning some weakness seen this week with perhaps a drop down to the .02 level and a green close next Friday. Nothing else to say about this stock at this time.

NEM generated an uneventful inside week with no breaks of support or resistance. The stock closed exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning equal chances of going below last week's low at 58.21 than above last week's high at 63.68. Nonetheless, the stock generated a positive reversal day on Friday, having made a new 8-day low and then closing green and near the highs of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside. If the stock does get above last week's high but fails to make a new rally high above 64.65, consideration should be given to taking profits and looking to re-buy on a dip down near the $57 level. With Gold likely to trade sideways for a couple of weeks, the stock is likely to do the same, especially since the 64.65 high seen a few weeks ago fulfilled one of the upper objectives of the mention. Any drop below 57.08 would be a short-term negative that would offer a drop down to at least the $52 level.

QQQ had a very important week where the bulls could have made a statement but failed to do so. The all-time monthly closing high in the stock is at 219.07 and on both Wednesday and on Thursday's monthly close, the bulls were trading above that level, having seen the stock trade up to 219.97 and 220.04 on those 2 days. Nonetheless, the stock closed at 218.91 on Thursday (monthly close) and then generated a red weekly close on Friday, confirming that the 215.29 weekly closing high seen 4 weeks ago is now a successful retest of the all-time high weekly close at 234.64. In addition, the stock generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 9-week high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 211.21 will be seen this week. There is no support below until 206.42 is reached. Below that, there is pivotal support at 203.63 that if broken will likely bring about new selling interest. The 200-day MA is currently at 201.50 and there is some minor but seemingly indicative pivotal support at 198.75 that if broken would bring about a drop down to $195. If all of that occurs, the chart suggests the runaway gap at 189.19 would then be tested. With the previous all-time high weekly close being at 191.11, that level is somewhat of a magnet if this correction continues (likely). Nonetheless, it must be mentioned that on an intraweek basis, there is no meaningful support until $180 is reached and a bit more meaningful at $170, making both of those levels reachable on a retest to test the March low at 164.93. To the upside, there is now resistance at 216.51. Probabilities favor the bears.

SRUTF turned around after making a new 6-month high and made a new all-time low. The news from the past week that caused the stock to rally was evidently bogus and not tangible. The stock remains in a clear downtrend but has reached a psychological level at $.5 cents that should give the stock some support. If nothing new happens this week, I will stop commenting on the stock until something does happen. Probabilities favor a nothing week.

TCEHY generated an indicative negative reversal week, having made a new 11-week high but then going below last week's low and closing below it and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 50.91 will be seen this week. What made the week indicative is not only the negative reversal which was the first since July of last year and that caused the stock to drop 16% in value thereafter, but the fact that a double top on both the intraweek and weekly closing basis was formed. On the intraweek chart at 54.25/54.20 and on the weekly closing chart at 53.30/52.85. With the closest intraweek support not found until 48.00, a drop down to that level is now a high probability. If that level is broken, 46.26 would be the next target and if that level is broken, it is open air to 41.40 where the 200-week MA is currently located and that was given as the objective of this mention. The weekly closing chart suggests strongly that a drop down to $47.50 will occur. Resistance is now found at 51.95 and at 53.31. Probabilities favor the bears.

W made a new 7-month intraweek high and got within $.58 cents of a decent resistance level at 135.38 (got up to 134.80). The stock turned downward at that time but the bulls were still able to generate a green weekly close. By the same token, the green weekly close was by only $.09 cents and therefore not all that meaningful, especially since the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 117.24 is expected to be seen this week. This is a stock that has been driven to the upside over 570% in the past 8 weeks (mostly due to short covering because of the high amount of short interest in the stock (49%)), it means that the high price is not sustainable. This is quite evident with the recent price objective average of 25 rating companies that put the value of the company at $75. With most of the indexes and stocks now showing a high probability of a correction to test the lows occurring, the probabilities now favor the stock also having a strong correction to the downside as the traders that were short have either covered their short positions or are willing to stay short, suggesting there will be no more squeezing of the shorts being seen. With the stock having moved straight up over the past 6 week without any pullbacks, the bulls now find themselves without any support levels of consequence nearby. As such, they need to find older support levels to use. To the downside, the first support level found is between $106 and $107, which were a couple of lows made in August of last year. Below that, there is support at the $100 level that is likely a bit more dependable given that not only was it an intraweek support to the downside but one to the upside as well (resistance), seen over 14 months ago. In addition, the $100 level is psychological support as well. By the same token, if that support level is broken, there is open air below until the $75 to $80 level is reached, which is fundamentally reachable given that it is the average value given to the stock by the rating companies. To the upside, some resistance is now found at 125.99. In looking at the daily chart, the $120 demilitarized zone is pivotal, meaning that if the bulls are able to keep the stock from breaking below last week's low at 117.24, they may be successful in generating a new attempt to the upside. By the same token, any print below 116.70 would highly likely cause the stock to drop down to the $106-$107 level. That is what the traders will be keying on this week. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .98.

2) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0268.

3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.64.

4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0545.

5) W - Averaged short at 97.47 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 122.50.

6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 110.88.

7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 212.74.

8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 88.32.

9) ARNA - Shorted at 48.73. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 47.53.

10) W - Shorted at 129.65 and at 134.34. Covered shorts at 128.63. Profit on the trade of $673 (2 mentions) minus commissions.

11) TCEHY Shorted at 52.90. Stop loss at 54.35. Stock closed on Friday at 51.05.

13) NEM - Purchased at 58.73. Stop loss at 56.65. Stock closed on Friday at 60.99


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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