Issue #671 ![]() May 24, 2020 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bulls and Tech Sector Remain in Control!
DOW Friday closing price - 24465
The indexes generated another strong rise this past week, having gone up an additional 3+% in value and negating the negative reversal week seen the previous week. The NASDAQ closed on Friday just 5.3% from the all-time high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 9405 will be seen this week. The SPX and the NASDAQ made a new 11-week intraweek high. The only one that failed to do that, was the DOW that closed on Friday just 299 points from its 11-week high. Nonetheless, the index is expected to go above last week's high at 24718 this week and with the 11-week high being at 24764, it will likely make a new rally high this week.
Fundamentally, there were no tangible reasons for the rally as the economic reports continued to be negative and not showing any recovery numbers yet. Nonetheless, the bulls continue to believe that the reopening of the economy, the plateauing of the virus in some states, and the potential for a cure and a vaccine in the near future will be a positive that will bring the economy back sooner rather than later. In addition, they also believe that companies such as AMZN, which are internet giants and have seen in increase in sales because of the virus and the stay at home scenario, will continue to benefit as the company did this past week, having made a new intraweek and weekly closing highs.
The NASDAQ has been the clear leader and is expected to continue as such for the near future, at least until the next set of earnings reports due out mid July. The index is now showing a V-shaped recovery pattern that could be fulfilled as early as this week, given that the index has been seeing gains of over 600 points per week and the all-time high is only 514 points from Friday's close. The original gap down from March, between 9542 and 9322 was gotten into this past week with a high at 9405. With the NDX index and the sister stock QQQ having closed their March gaps this past week, the index will likely accomplish the same thing week, meaning that an additional 208 points from Friday's close seems to be a "gimme". Whether that is the only goal or not is not yet clear but with the others closing their gaps and still going higher after that, the probabilities of a rally to test the all-time high at 9838 is a high probability.
There are a fair number of economic reports due out this week with Consumer Confidence on Tuesday leading the parade. Economic reports have not had any impact, or been of assistance, to the market but Consumer Confidence has always been a report the traders await, given that is shows the feelings traders have regarding the market. Throughout the last few months of the previous run to new high and up until the virus showed up, the number had been coming out above 120, which has always been considered a bullish sign. Last month, it came out at 86.9 and the expectations for this report are for a number at 88.5. If the number comes below last month's number it will likely be considered a decent negative due to the overbought condition of the index. Otherwise, it will likely be ignored as it was last month.
What the traders will be watching this week is for any sign of weakness. None is expected to occur but I will mention the chart support levels that if broken, would likely generate new selling interest. In the DOW, a break below last week's low at 24059 and followed with a close next Friday below the 200-week MA, currently at 23868, would be a negative sign. In the SPX, a break below last week's low at 2915 would be seen as a small negative but a weekly close below the most recent low weekly close at 2868, would generate a new sell signal, which has not occurred at all during the rally. The NASDAQ requires a weekly close below the 9000 demilitarized zone, meaning below 8970 for some weakness to be seen. On a daily closing basis, a close below 2820 in the SPX and a close below 8863 in the NAZ would weaken the charts. It is not expected any of this will happen this week.
On a much shorter terms basis, it does need to be mentioned that on the daily closing chart of the NASDAQ, the index did get up near to a minor but evident daily close resistance at 9383 from January, having closed on Wednesday at 9375, followed by a red close on Thursday and a green-but-below-that-resistance-level on Friday. As such, it is evident or at least likely that the resistance at 9283 is something the traders are looking at and so far respecting. This means that on Tuesday, that level will be key for the week, as well as Thursday's close at 9284. That 100 point trading range between 9284 and 9383 is uneventful but a close above or below those two levels could be short-term pivotal.
The bulls are in control and have the edge right now but the fundamentals are not presently supporting these high prices and until they do, the market can "turn on a dime".
Probabilities favor the bulls this week.
OIL generated another green weekly close (the 4th in a row) and the bulls accomplished making the statement that the bottom based on a weekly close has been established at 16.94, having closed above the previous 4-year low weekly close at 29.44. By the same token, the previous and as important (or more important) low weekly close at 33.87 was not broken as oil closed on Friday at 33.25. Had the bulls closed above 33.87, it would be a statement that not only oil has found a bottom but a short-to-midterm uptrend has begun. Oil did close near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 34.66 is expected to be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, there is minor to decent resistance at 37.00 and a bit stronger at 39.99 which if not broken, would suggest a drop back down to the $25-$27 level over the next couple of months. The monthly close is next Friday and on that chart, the 33.62 level is pivotal as that was the low monthly close since 2004 before the recent breadown. A close above that level would give the bulls a clear edge for further upside, while a close below that level would keep the bears in control. With 33.62 and 33.87 being important and pivotal monthly and weekly close resistance levels, a red or green weekly close next Friday is what this week will likely be all about. With the bears having been in control for the past 11 weeks (2+ months) and no positive fundamental changes of consequence having occurred, the probabilities continue to favor the bears.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I took a look at over 80 different stocks this weekend and I could find no new stocks that look like purchases. I did find many stocks that look like shorts but with the bears having been in charge and short positions not having been profitable of late, I decided that I could not add more shorts to the portfolio unless some signs of the rally ending are seen.
Nonetheless, in doing the update on held stocks, Gold continues to look supportive though at this particular time, Gold and gold stocks seem to be in a pausing action to build a new support levels the bulls can use to attempt new all-time highs across the board. As such and if the currently held Gold stocks reach downside levels where they can be purchase with limitation of risk and decent risk/reward ratios, I will buy or add to presently held stocks.
AU to purchase between 24.00 and 24.50 with a stop loss at 23.00 and an objective of 30.26. Risk/reward ratio is 3.3-1. Probability rating is a 3.
NEM to purchase between $60 and $61 with a stop loss at 57.97 and an objective of $70. Risk/reward ratio is 4-1. Probability rating is a 3.25.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AXP generated an 8% rally this week from weekly close to weekly close and did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 91.43 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock continues to trade in an uneventful trading range that is now defined by the previous week's low at 76.00 and the most recent high at 96.39. Overall, the chart remains slanted in favor of the bears as a bearish pyramid formation remains. Nonetheless, it is important to note that the previous week's low at 76.00 is now considered to be the needed/required retest of the March lows, meaning that in that way, the chart to the downside may have been fulfilled. Then again, it also means that now the traders will key on the fundamental picture more so than before for a break below the recent low or above the recent high. The chart favors the bears but the fundamentals remain uncertain, suggesting that the stock will continue to trade within that $20 range between $76 and $96 until the fundamental picture gets clearer. That is not likely to happen for at least another 4 weeks but probably not for another 2 months until the next set of earnings reports come out. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but only for a rally above last week's high. One possible indicative thing did occur on Friday as the stock closed below the most recent high weekly close at 89.50 (closed at 89.33) and a close above that level would have given the bulls a short-term edge. A red close next Friday, would keep the bears with a clear short-term edge. As such, this week will be all about a red or green weekly close on Friday. CAT, much like the evaluation of AXP above, seems to be in a $20 trading range between $100 and $120 level. Nonetheless, in the case of this stock, it closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 111.47 will be seen this week. The stock did gap up on the weekly chart between 110.77 and 111.47, which evidently means that closure of the gap is the main objective of the traders this week. Nonetheless, it also shows a gap on the daily chart between 107.99 and 111.47 that has a high probability of being closed as well. If that occurs, the bears will have a bit more short-term control of the stock that was is being seen with AXP. Everything else stated above with AXP does apply to this stock as well. On the other hand and looking at the daily chart (rather than the weekly), there is short-term pivotal resistance at 117.48 that if broken, would give an edge to the bulls. On a weekly closing basis, the 114.06 level remains pivotal as that was the level of support that when broken, took the stock down to 87.50. The stock did trade above that level every day of the week on an intraweek basis but then closing substantially below that level on Friday is suggestive that the bears remain in control and to change that, a positive fundamental change needs to occur. None is expected at this time. Some intraweek support is found at 106.55 that if broken would give the bears a bit more ammunition but if seen and not broken, would be suggesting of a rally. Consideration should be given to taking some or all profits on a drop down to that level. Probabilities favor the bears this week. CRON generated a new buy signal on the weekly chart, having closed above the 13-week high weekly close at 6.26 on Friday. The reason for the buy interest was because of a study that was made by the Cannabis industry that showed that at least 13 Cannabis plants could block proteins that create a "gateway" for the new coronavirus to enter host cells. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 6.87 is expected to be seen this week. With the stock having generated a successful retest of the previous $4 low the previous week and now given a buy signal, the probabilities of a bottom having been built and established have soared. The next step that bulls have to accomplish is a close of the now 14-week long gap at 7.10. Closure of the gap will totally fulfill the chart to the point the traders will become at least shor-term buyers with at likely minimum rise up close to the $9 level. Intraweek support is now pivotal at 5.48. Probabilities favor the bulls. DD made a new 3-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 49.87 will be seen this week. The stop loss given was triggered but with the new high being minor in nature and decent weekly close resistance at the $50 demilitarized zone (51.24 on an intraweek basis), closing of the short positions was not made. Intraweek resistance (as mentioned above) is minor to decent at 51.24 and is likely to be seen this week. The stock is showing a gap between 45.84 and 47.08 that should be closed as there is no positive news to the company supporting the gap. By the same token, if the stock gets above 51.24, there is no resistance above until the $60 level is reached. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. ENG generated an inside week, meaning no levels of resistance or support were broken. Nonetheless, the stock did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.00 is likely to be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at .93 but on a daily closing basis, the 200-day MA, currently at .98 should not be broken. Any rally above the 2-week high at 1.18 would generate an additional and stronger buy signal, especially if a close above the 200-week MA, currently at 1.14, occurs. Probabilities favor another uneventful week. MCIG generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .026 will be seen this week. It was a surprising reversal given that the news on the Cannabis industry was positive and caused CRON to make a new multi-week high. By the same token, no support levels were broken and if there is no downside follow through this week and a rally above last week's high at .0349 is seen this week, last week's low will become a required/needed successful retest of the 4-week low at ,0235. The stock seems to be building a strong support base from which to launch a rally. Probabilities favor the bulls. MRNA rallied an additional 23% in value from the previous week's close to the intraweek high made last week at 87.00. Nonetheless, the bulls were not able to maintain the rally and the stock on Friday closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 65.31 is expected to be seen this week. The stock has quadrupled in price over the past 10 weeks and has only seen 2 minor red weekly closes and zero drops below a previous week's low, suggesting the traders are now looking to see where fundamental support buying is now found. Simply stated, the stock is likely pausing to build a new support base from which to launch further moves to the upside. Evidently and from a psychological point of view, the $50 has to be considered a likely support area but given that the fundamental picture looks strongly positive and the news continues to support further upside, it is unlikely a drop down to that level will occur. Though the probabilities favor a drop below last week's low, the reality is that the bears have had no success at all during the past 2 and a half months and a gap created on Monday was closed on Thursday and was followed by an inside day and a green close on Friday, suggesting Thursday's low at 65.31 could become the new support level. A rally on Tuesday above Friday's high at 70.60 would likely mean no further downside will be seen. Probabilities favor the bulls. NEM generated a negative reversal week, having made another new 8+-year intraweek high at 69.13 and then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 62.30 will be seen this week. Like with MRNA, the stock has seen higher highs each week for the past 10 weeks and no corrections on the weekly chart. With the all-time high weekly close being at 69.61 and last week's high being at 69.13, it seems the traders not only want to build a new support level but wait until more tangible fundamental news about the economy and the dollar comes out. In 2011 when the all-time high weekly close was made, the stock spent almost 3 months staying above the 61,75 weekly closing level and it seems highly likely that level will once again be considered support at this time until new news comes out that decides the next direction. Probabilities favor Gold making new all-time highs, which in turn favor the stock doing the same. Nonetheless, it is likely that the stock will trade between those two weekly closing levels mentioned above for at least the next 2-3 weeks. Probabilities favor the bears this week. I do want to mention that any rally back up near the high at $69 be a reason to take profits, while dips down near the $60 level be a reason to buy. Simply stated, the stock is likely to be a trading vehicle for the next few weeks. QQQ made a new intraweek and weekly closing rally high and is now only 3.3% from the all-time high, opening the door wide open for a V-shaped recovery to occur. The stock did close the March gap at 229.32 with a high this past week at 232.14, which is a positive for the bulls from the point of view that a big bearish negative has been removed from the equation but it also could be a negative in favor of the bears given that the magnet of the gap has now been removed and the bulls will need tangible bullish information to continue higher. Fundamentally, the index was driven higher by AMZN and FB, both of which made new all-time highs this past week. Evidently, AMZN is the stronger of the two and the one stock the stock is most dependent on, meaning that continuing to make new highs will depend on whether AMZN continues higher or not. It is important to note that other than those two companies, none of the other big companies did much last week. AMZN reported disappointing earnings recently that caused a 10% drop in price. That loss has now been recouped and new highs made but the company reported that they will be spending $4 billion on coronavirus expenditures and are expected to come in with somewhere between a -$1.5 loss to a +$1.5 billion dollar profit in the second quarter. Such uncertainty will not help the bulls. In addition, the company closed the relationship with over 10,000 suppliers due to price gouging and are experiencing problems with receiving deliveries from the other suppliers, suggesting a higher probability that next quarter's earnings will not support continued new all-time highs. This does suggest that NASDAQM/b>/QQQ will have problems continuing higher, especially regarding making new all-time highs. With a possible 3.3% profit potential versus a 13.8% potential risk (where a viable support level is located at 198.10), the viability of the bulls continuing to buy with a negative 1-4 risk/reward ratio has to be considered very low. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls but growth from here is limited and likely not fast and with no support of consequence below until 198.10 is reached, at some point in the near term, the stock (and the index) are more likely to drop than rally. W generated a failure signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed below the previous all-time high weekly close at 169.83 (closed at 165.69). The bulls were able to rally the stock to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 174.93 than below last week's low at 150.02. Nonetheless, the previous all-time intraweek high is at 173.72 and traders will likely be sellers around that level, meaning that getting above the previous intraweek all-time high is not a given, especially considering that there is no resistance above that level until the all-time intraweek high at 197.06 is reached. The stock is showing a potential flag formation being formed with the flagpole being the drop from 197.06 to 150.02 and the flag being the action seen the past 4 days with a high at 168.24. If the flag is formed and the bottom of the flag at 150.02 is broken, it would offer a downside target of 141.26, which fits in well with the existing intraweek support at 135.21. A small break above 168.24 would not negate the flag but simply extend the time frame. By the same token, a rally above last week's high would be a bullish short-term statement. I would venture to say that the bears have a slight advantage this week.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.02. 2) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .029. 3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.70. 4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .05. 5) W - Averaged short at 97.47 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 165.69. 6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 112.47. 7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 229.66. 8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 89.33. 9) ARNA - Covered shorts at 49.75. Shorted at 48.73. Loss on the trade of $102 per 100 shares plus commissions. 10) CAT - Shorted at 113.95. Covered shorts at 114.95. Loss on the trade of $100 per 100 shares plus commissions. 11) NEM - Averaged at 61.96. Stop loss now at 57.97. Stock closed on Friday at 63.05. 12) MRNA - Averaged long at 55.395. Stop loss now at 51.69 on a daily stop close only. Stock closed on Friday at 69.00. 13) DD - Averaged short at 47.515 (2 mentions. Stop loss at 51.35. Stock closed on Friday at 48.69
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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