Issue #687
Sep 27, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Pivotal Week Ahead. Important Economic Reports Due Out!

DOW Friday closing price - 27173
SPX Friday closing price - 3298
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 10913

The indexes showed mixed results this past week as the DOW and the SPX generated another red weekly close (4 red weeks in a row) but the NASDAQ generated a positive reversal week having made a new 9-week low but then closing green. All indexes closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 27484, SPX at 3323 and NAZ at 10979). This action seen last week, especially in the NAZ, does open the door for a correction low having been made as the Tech sector is once again leading the way up and that has been the case during the entire bull run, meaning that the uptrend might be resuming. Using the high and low seen since the recent high was made, the NASDAQ has corrected 12.9%, the DOW has corrected 9.2% and the SPX has corrected 10.6%, all of these can be considered viable and generally normal correction percentages. Is there more to come, or are the corrections over and the uptrend to resume? That is the question being asked at this time.

The answer to that question is likely to be answered by the chart of the SPX (not the NASDAQ) as that was the index that gave a failure signal 4 weeks ago and as such has a clear upside resistance level/objective-for-the-week that will show whether this move up is just a pause in the correction before resuming and heading even lower or whether the correction is over and an attempt to resume the uptrend has begun. The level to watch in the index is the previous all-time intraweek high at 3393 (3380 on a weekly closing basis). A retest of that level this week is now a high probability as the index generated a 100 point rally from the low to the high last week and that wide trading range is likely to be seen again as the volatility index remains high. With the index closing on Friday at 3298, a rally to test that level is likely to be seen this week as that area of important and pivotal resistance is found 95 points higher than Friday's close and 82 points on a weekly closing basis. Neither of the other indexes are showing any resistance of consequence above until the all-time high in the NASDAQ at 112074 or the DOW with the August high at 29199, meaning that the traders will key all of their attention on the SPX.

Given that there has been no fundamentally positive news come out to give the bulls new ammunition, the trading being seen is all chart oriented and as such, likely dependable. It also needs to be mentioned that this coming week there are a slew of important economic reports due out that the traders will be depending on to clear up the fundamental picture somewhat, and the bulls are hoping (and depending on) that they are better than expected. On Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence number comes out, on Wednesday the 3rd estimate of GDP, on Thursday the ISM Index and on Friday the Jobs report. All of these have been catalytic reports at some point in time and will help decide the fundamental picture that will either confirm whether this reversal that occurred this past week is simply a retest of the recent highs before further correction is seen or whether the fundamental picture has changed enough to the point it can give the bulls some new ammunition to attempt to resume the rally.

As stated above, the SPX is the key index this week, especially on Friday when the next weekly close is seen. If the index closes on Friday above 3380, you can expect the rally to continue. Any close below that will be a probable negative. Keep in mind (as stated the past 2 weeks) that the downside objectives of this correction and based on the previous two corrections over the past 10 years in a bull trend have been anywhere from 17% to as much as 24.5%. With the indexes having corrected so far anywhere from 9-13%, if the bulls fail this week, the correction will resume and likely double to the downside what has already occurred.

In this case, the SPX remains the key index. As stated last week, the 3200-3220 level was support for the index and it did get down to 3209 last week. Evidently, if that low is broken, more downside down to at least the 200-day MA, currently at 3107, will be seen.

Probabilities remain on the side of the bears as both the fundamental and chart picture remain short-term bearish. Nonetheless, trading this week will continue to be volatile with both red and green seen consistently but not likely indicative until all of the reports are out by Friday.


GOLD, having broken the triangle formation on Monday, and having dinged the flag formation slightly on Wednesday, ended up having a strong down week with a trading range of $110. In addition, Gold is now in a clear correction, having dropped 11.4% from the high at $2089 seen 8 weeks ago. Gold closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at $1852 is expected to be seen this week. The previous all-time high weekly close from 2011 was at $1848, meaning that so far this correction is nothing more than a retest of the breakout level, which is a normal thing to occur on a chart perspective. Gold closed at $1862 on Friday and that is "close enough" that if a green weekly close occurs next Friday that the retest will be seen as "having been successful". As it is, the $1848 level is likely to be seen this week on an intraweek basis, given that it is likely to go below last week's low this week. Given the importance of this coming week to the index market, the same can be said about Gold. It does need to be mentioned that the bullish flag formation has been "dinged" but not negated as a drop of only 1% from the other low at $1872 is not sufficient to negate that formation, especially considering that the flagpole started at $1690 and went up to $2089, meaning that a drop down to $1848 is still considered being "in the flag area". Using $1848 as the bottom of the flag, the objective of the flag if broken is at $2248. The one problem that does exist is that there is no established intraweek support close by below so the bulls need to make sure that Gold does not get pushed down more than a couple of dollars below $1848 as that would begin giving the bears ammunition the bulls cannot afford to give. Unfortunately, there are no levels nearby to the upside either where "if broken" the scenario would become clear. A daily close above $1923 would be such a sign as it would negate the break that has taken it down to $1852 but other than that, the bulls will be without a pivotal level that would automatically stimulate buying. By the same token and using the hourly closing chart, there is some minor resistance at $1868 and stronger and more pivotal at $1877 that if broken, would give a slight edge to the bulls. Probabilities favor the bulls for a green close next Friday but probabilities favor the bears for further sell pressure at the beginning of the week.

OIL generated a red weekly close, making the previous week's close at 41.11 into a successful retest of the minor to perhaps decent resistance 41.29. In addition, it also made last week's close into the required/needed retest of the weekly close rally high at 42.97. If this is followed through with another red close next Friday, the probabilities will increase of the correction continuing past the recent weekly closing low at 37.33 (intraweek at 36.13), targeting the $34 level that was mentioned 3 weeks ago as a viable downside target. Oil closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 38.88 than above last week's high at 41.48. There is minor to decent intraweek support between 38.52 and 38.88 but if the former is broken, there is open air below until 36.67 is reached. Probabilities favor the bears but given that this week there are a lot of important economic reports, it is unlikely anything of consequence will happen until Friday.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions at this time but this is likely to be a pivotal week, especially considering all the important economic reports due out. As such, it could be a good week to put on new trades or add to existing ones. By the same token, that will not be known until the latter part of the week. At such a time, I will give some mentions on the message board based on the action seen throughtout the week.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU made a new 16-week intraweek and weekly closing low but closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 26.52 than below last week's low at 24.35. The stock was affected by Gold heading lower but also by the announcement of the sale of its South African holdings. In addition and in looking at the charts, the stock had a breakaway and runaway gap formation that became magnets for closure once the runaway gap was closed. The breakaway gap was at 24.65 and that means both were closed. After that occurred, the stock outperformed Gold and the other gold stocks, having rallied enough to close in the upper half of the trading range whereas the others did not. The stock gapped down at the beginning of the week between 27.06 and 26.52 and there is no reason for that gap not to be closed. On a weekly closing basis, there is resistance between 27.75 and 27.90 as that level was a previous 7-year weekly closing high and a recent a recent low weekly close. As such, that level is likely to be seen this week. A close above that level would be a sign that the stock is ready to recover from this correction. Pivotal support below is found at 22.83. Probabilities favor the bulls.

AXP made a new 8-week intraweek and a new 6-week weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 93.71 than above last week's high at 100.63. In addition, the stock once again closed below the 200-week MA, currently at 100.41. On a short-term positive note, the stock did generate a sell signal on Thursday on the daily closing chart but negated that sell signal on Friday, as well as closing on the high of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be to the upside. One of the reasons for the strong weakness seen this past week is that the company received a downgrade to a sell by Bank of America on Wednesday, which created the sell signal on Thursday. Nonetheless, the stock was already under strong sell pressure as on Monday the stock gapped down between 103.31 and 100.63 due to some information about International banks being investigated for money laundering and with the company having in the past been fined for the same thing, sell interest was seen. Both the 200 day and week MA's were broken this week and with the downgrade, it seems highly unlikely the stock will recover all that much. It is highly unlikely that those MA's will be broken to the upside anytime soon, meaning that the downside is a lot more attractive at this time than the upside, given that the $100 level is now considered decent to even perhaps soon-to-be strong resistance. To the downside, any drop below the closest support, presently at 89.58, will open the door wide for a drop down to the $80 level. Risk/reward ratios now favor the bears. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week given that the indexes are likely to rally. Nonetheless, rallies in the stock should be sold using a 103.35 stop loss.

BTZI had an uneventful week in which neither the bulls nor the bears gave any signs of anything. The stock did generate another red weekly close (the 6th in a row) but it was only by $.002 cents. The same outlook as last week remains in place. To the upside, short-term pivotal resistance is found at .028/.029 and to the downside, the $.020 is support. Probabilities continue to favor sideways trading within that range. A break above or below either of those 2 levels would be short-term indicative.

CAT generated a failure signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday below the previous 2-year weekly closing high at 148.44 (closed at 145.91). In spite of the indexes rallying at the end of the week and closing near the highs of the week, the bulls were unable to do so in the stock, having closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 142.73 than above last week's high at 149.50. Another close next Friday below 148.44 would open the door for a drop all the way down to the 200-week MA, currently at 129.08. There is some minor intraweek support at 138.56 but below that there is nothing of consequence. The stock did gap down on Monday between 152.06 and 149.50 and that gap is now extremely important as there is decent intraweek resistance at the previous 2-year high at 150.55 that should not be broken. By the same token, that also suggests that another gap may be seen in the next few days or a couple of weeks that if it occurs, a breakaway/runaway gap formation would occur that would be a strong signal that the rally is over for the year. Probabilities do favor the stock rallying up to the $150 demilitarized zone this week. If that occurs but the gap is not filled, an inverted flag formation will be formed with the flag being the drop from 156.25 to 142.73 and the flag the rally back up to the $150 level. A break of the bottom of the flag, would offer a $137 objective. Probabilities favor the bulls slightly this week for a rally back up to the $150 level but then favor the bears for a correction downward.

CNX generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week intraweek high and then closing below the previous week's low and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 10.32 will be seen this week. This was the 3rd attempt since November 2018 to get above the 200-week MA, currently at 11.88 (got up to 11.74). Normally, long term downtrends require 3 attempts before broken so on this move down it is important that the support below hold up so that the next attempt will have a higher probability of a breakout. Intraweek support is found at the $10 demilitarized zone. Should that level get broken, a drop back down to the 200-day MA, currently at 8.93, would likely occur. For this week, short-term pivotal resistance is found at 10.9711.05. If the stock is able to get above that level, last week's weakness will be negated. It is important to note that on Wednesday, Capital One initiated coverage on the stock with a buy rating and a $16 objective. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

CRON made yet another 24-month weekly closing low and closed once again in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.96 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and on an intraweek basis, the stock still shows 2 previous lows at 4.00 and at 4.62 that have not been broken. In addition, the $5 demilitarized zone (down to 4.70) is considered a decent psychological support. There has not been any additional negative news on the company so the sell pressure is mainly due to the industry and not due to the company itself. Short term pivotal resistance is found at 5.59 that if broken, would suggest the downside is over. Pivotal support is found at 4.62 as that was the intraweek spike low made in May. It is unlikely at this time that support will be broken, suggesting this week could be a turn-around week with the stock going below 4.96 but then closing green next Friday.

ENG generated a new 5-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .69 will be seen this week. The close at .74 is a short-term negative as there was minor to perhaps decent weekly close support at .76 that should not have been broken without some negative news, of which there was none. There is some minor support at .68 and again at .61 but the key word is "minor". On a very minor but positive note, the stock did generate a green daily close on Friday after having closed on Thursday at .73. On a daily closing basis, there is some minor to perhaps decent daily close support at .70, meaning that the action this week is pivotal for the short-term. The bulls need to step up this week and negate the action seen this past week.

MRNA was unable to follow through to the upside this past week in spite of having closed the previous week on the high of the week. The stock did see selling interest the first 4 days of the week and a drop of 9.1% in value but on Friday most of that loss was recouped and the stock closed at 69.47 (just $.40 cents below the previous week's close), confirming the previous week's failure signal against the bears, having closed once again above the previous all-time high weekly close at 69.00. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 69.73 is expected to be seen. In addition and on a strong bullish note, the action seen the past 2 weeks has built a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 54.21 to 70.90 and the flag being the action seen the past 9 days with a low of 63.64. If broken, the bull flag offers an upside target of 80.33, to be reached within 8 trading days after 70.90 is broken. Support is now found at last week's low at 63.64 and resistance is found at 70.90, minor at 71.64, and minor again at 75.75 and then nothing until 87.00. Probabilities favor the bulls.

NEM made a new 10-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 59.28 than above last week's high at 64.34. The stock did generate a sell signal on the weekly chart, having closed below the previous low weekly close at 63.85 but then again, the failure to rally the previous 7 weeks had made that probability of the sell signal happening high. To the downside, there is a fair amount of daily close support between $58 and $60 and then decent to strong daily close support at 54.76. The 200-day MA is currently at 55.37 and unless Gold breaks down, it is highly unlikely the stock will break below that line. The daily closing chart does suggest that either the low of the correction has occurred or that a bit more downside (down to $58) might be seen. The stock is presently showing a breakaway/runaway gap formation with the breakaway gap between 67.22 and 66.79 and the runaway gap between 64.54 and 64.29. There has been no news to support the gap formation, meaning it is all about Gold. If gold begins to recover this coming week, those gaps will be targeted for closure. Overall, the chart remains in a bullish pattern and it seems that it is just a matter of time before the stock begins heading higher again (either this week or the next).

QQQ generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 8-week intraweek low but then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 273.08 expected to be seen this week. Like the NASDAQ, there is very little resistance above though there is some minor intraweek resistance at 274.98. On the daily chart though, there is minor to perhaps decent intraweek resistance between 280.45 and 282.20 that should not be broken if the correction is to continue. In using the 60-minute chart, the 200 60-minute MA is currently at 279.43 and that line has not been broken to the upside since September 8th, meaning it is resistance of some importance, especially considering the resistance found between 280.45 and 282.20 on the daily chart. As such, that line is likely to be seen this week given that the indexes are expected to continue higher but not likely to be broken unless the fundamental picture has changed. To the downside, there is now some support at 264.63 that if broken would give the bears their edge back. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but only until Friday when decisions are likely to be made for the next 4 weeks.

RIO generated a failure signal this past week as well as generating a new sell signal, having closed below the previous 9-year weekly closing high at 62.79 as well as below the most recent low week close at 60.77. This action all came about due to a complaint from an aborigine tribe in Australia that the company was looking to destroy 124 heritage sites in order to expand their mining operations. Off of this news, the stock gapped down on Monday between 63.82 and 62.43 and further downside occurred the rest of the week. There is no way I can evaluate this news from a fundamental basis but I can't see where this action, whether it happens or not, will impact the company financially in the long run. Nonetheless, the stock did close near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low 59.38 is expected to be seen. Some minor intraweek support is found at 58.25 that is further strengthened by the 100-day MA, currently at 58.29. Nonetheless, if that level is broken, there is no support until 54.87 is reached, which is further strengthened by the 200-da MA, currently at 54.69. The stock did close on the high of the day on Friday and if the stock does go above Friday's high at 60.42, a double low at 59.48/59.38 will be created that could turn the momentum down to back up again. As it is, this new problem is not likely to impact the company economically and the probabilities do favor some sort of compromise occurring between the company and the tribe. As such, the probabilities favor the bulls. A rally above 61.90 would likely confirm the worst is over.

SRUTF made a new 8-week intraweek and weekly closing low, erasing all the small gains made since the first week of August. Nonetheless, since May the stock has been basically trading between .03 and .06 cents and having insignificant trading ranges each week, once again suggesting the trading interest is overall very low on both sides of the coin. The company though, is in better shape fundamentally than it was 3 months ago and it is basically the overall lack of interest in the Cannabis industry that is keeping the stock at these levels. The stock does show a double bottom at .03/.0325 that needs to be stayed away from. Last week's low was .0387 and the stock needs to stay above .037 to maintain the double bottom intact. To the upside, resistance is at .0567 that if broken would suggest the worst is over. I expect the stock to trade within that range this week.

W generated a second green weekly close but the first rally above a previous week's high in the past 5 weeks, meaning that this rally is now either resumption of the uptrend (unlikely) or will be a successful retest of the all-time high, which in turn would open the door for new selling interest and a retest or break of the recent low at 234.65. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 307.92 but that level is also resistance on the daily chart as the high was made on Monday, followed by 4 days trading below that level. As such, the bulls will need help from the indexes to break that resistance. Above that level, there is no resistance until 324.81 that at this moment is a viable target but also a resistance unlikely to be broken unless the indexes resume the uptrend. Short-term pivotal support is now found at 272.89 that if broken would likely push the stock down to at least $260. As such, potential high for the week is $324 and potential low for the week is $260 with the 307.92 level being the pivot point. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .74.

2) BTZI - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0259.

3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.07.

4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0505.

5) W - Averaged short at 86.61 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 293,74.

6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 145.91

7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 293.74.

8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 96.26.

9) AU - Averaged long at 25.68 (4 mentions). Stop loss at 26.48. Stock closed on Friday at 25.63.

10) NEM - Averaged long at 60.742 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 61.42.

11) MRNA - Averaged long at 59.54 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 69.47.

12) RIO - Averaged long at 62.845 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 60.36.

13) CNX - Averaged long at 9.10 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.38.

14) QQQ - Ourchased at 262,14 and at 262,14, Liquidated at 262.78, Profit of #128 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.

15) FNV - Day traded 4 times. Total of 2 losses and 2 profit. Total profit of $452 per 100 shares minus commisions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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