Issue #682
Aug 23, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


The NASDAQ is in a Runaway Freight Train Pattern. No end in sight!

DOW Friday closing price - 27930
SPX Friday closing price - 3397
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 11311

The NASDAQ and the SPX continued their rally this week with another green weekly close. In the case of the NASDAQ, a further appreciation of 2.4% occurred. In the case of the SPX, it was only .7% appreciation. In the case of the DOW, it was a red close by 1 points (27930 versus last week at 27932-1). The dichotomy in the market continues with the Tech stocks leading the way. Nonetheless, the bulls did accomplish something of note with the SPX making a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and that is suggestive of the market being involved in the rally and not just one section/industry (Tech) pulling everything up. All the indexes closed on or near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen and once again there being nothing scheduled in the form of possible negative catalytic reports, there seems to be no end in sight to the rally.

The only thing on the horizon that can help the bears is that on a seasonal basis, September has been the month where a correction starts that normally runs up until the end of October. This seasonal trend has been seen on 9 of the last 10 years though the severity of the correction has been different on each occasion. Last year it was a 6.6% correction, in 2018 it was a 24% correction, in 2017 there was no correction and in 2016 it was a 5.6% correction. With all indexes being overbought and with very little factual news supporting this rally, a correction is a high probability. On the other side of the coin, such a correction is not likely to start this coming week, meaning that further upside is to be expected until the following week.

This week has importance from the view of the SPX as the bulls need to confirm the breakout. On a weekly closing basis, the index closed 17 points above the previous all-time high weekly close at 3380 and either another green close needs to occur next Friday, or at the very worst, a close no lower than 3380 next week. It does need to be mentioned that there are a slew of economic reports due out this week (Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods, 2nd estimate of GDP, and Personal Income and Spending). None of these reports are likely to be catalytic unless way out of line (unlikely) but then again, the index only closed 17 points above the previous all-time high weekly close and it will not take much negative movement to the downside to negate the breakout. If that occurs, this could still be seen as a double top. One additional problem for the bulls that was seen this past week is the on 3 of the 5 days that the indexes traded, they traded substantially lower in overnight trading, meaning that the Asian and European markets are not as bullish about the U.S. market as Americans are. The dollar has weakened and that is a viable negative and if that continues, the Asians and Europeans will be proven right in their assessment. For now, it is just a difference of opinion but at some point, it will need to be proven who is right in their assessment.

This coming week, there are no chart points close by above that can prove to be a difficult barrier to overcome, such as last week with the SPX and its all-time high. As such, smoother sailing to the upside is expected to be seen. By the same token, any weakness that occurs will be indicative. The one thing that keeps the bulls in control right now is that it is expected that some further stimulus above what was announced by the President's executive order offered will occur. Congress is adjourned until the 2nd week of September but efforts are being made to accomplish something before that and if that occurs, it would help the bulls, at least at first because thereafter the bulls will not have anything additionally positive to speculate and support further buying.

The levels to watch below are the same as last week. To the downside, there are clear levels of support that if broken will automatically generate new selling interest. In the DOW that level is found on a daily closing basis at the previous multi-month high at 27572. With the close on Friday at 27930, a fall and close of over 358 points would generate a negative response. In the SPX a break below 3326 (71 points below Friday's close) would bring in new chart selling interest and in the NASDAQ, a break below 10762 would do the same. That is a fall of 549 points below Friday's close. None of those levels are likely to be seen this week.

What the chart is now suggesting is that until the 2nd week of September (4 weeks away), the probabilities favor the bulls and further upside gains but limited in nature as the seasonal correction will start to be anticipated. If there are any surprises, they will likely be in favor of the bears, if for no other reason that the virus remains unchecked and there seems to be no relief in sight. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but only for limited upside gains.


GOLD generated an inside week, meaning that the $200 fall and close in the lower half of the trading range last week was not a clear signal that the uptrend is over. Gold generated half of the previous week's trading range ($107) but in the end only closed $2 below the previous week's close, meaning that last week was uneventful and not confirming anything of consequence. Gold did close in the lower half of the week's trading range and the probabilities do favor it going below last week's low at $1916 but if that does occur and then a green weekly close is seen next Friday, the correction will likely be over and a new support level at $1876 will have been established. The last established support level is at $1671 and as such, a new one had to be established before further appreciation could occur. On the other side of the coin, the all-time high daily close at $2069 has now been successfully tested with Monday's close at $2013, meaning that the recent low daily close at $1946 is likely to be broken one day this week and the chart does suggest that a daily close objective will be $56 lower, meaning at $1890. It is likely that this coming week that Gold will be mostly under sell pressure with the Bulls playing a defensive game. A break below the previous week's low at $1876 would now be a negative sign. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

OIL generated an uneventful week, having traded in a $1.57 trading range. Oil was able to make a new 6 month weekly closing high, having closed $,33 cents above the previous week's high, meaning the bulls remain in control. Nonetheless and on an intraweek basis, oil remained below the previous high seen 3 weeks ago at 43.52 and the bulls still need help to continuing higher. Oil closed very slightly ($.05 cents) above the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 43.22 than below last week's low at 41.46. By the same token, oil has traded in a $2.47 trading range for the past 3 weeks and there doesn't seem to be anything happening right now that will cause a break above or below that trading range at this time. If there is a break in either direction it will likely be to the upside but the bulls have been unable to do that for this period of time in spite of the fact there is no previous established resistance close by above. The recent 43.52 intraweek high shows no other previous resistance anywhere close by, suggesting that oil is being held back fundamentally and not chart-wise. Evidently and from a chart basis, a break above 43.52 will be a positive for further upside. To the downside, thee is minor and short term support at 41.06 and then more meaningful at 38.72, Probabilities favor the bulls but for limited movement to the upside.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions this week. The runaway freight train pattern seen in some stocks and the inability to rally pattern seen in other stocks makes this market untradeable at this time, other than perhaps day trades. By the same token, until the traders return to "trading" the market, there are no trades that offer any good risk/reward ratios and much less probability ratings.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU made a new 8-week intraweek low but the bulls were able to keep the stock closing above the previous multi-year weekly closing high at 27.75, having closed on Friday at 27.90. As such, it can be said it was an uneventful week in which nothing was decided. The stock did close near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 27.31 is expected to be seen but if a green close occurs next Friday, a successful retest of the previous weekly closing high will have occurred and if that happens, new buying interest will be seen. Pivotal resistance is found at last week's high at 30.78. A break above that level will likely cause the uptrend to resume. There is an open gap below at 26.48 that may be a magnet for closure this week. If not closed and a green weekly close occurs next Friday, it would be a bullish sign. Probabilities favor the bulls.

AXP generated a red weekly close, causing last week's close at 100.41 to become a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 99.59. The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 95.68 will be seen this week. Pivotal support is found at 89.58 but any daily close below 93.19 will weaken the chart and any daily close below 90.57 would generate a new and strong sell signal. To the upside, an intraweek rally above 99.57 will give the bulls a slight edge and a daily close above 103.26 would be a decent positive. Probabilities favor the bears.

BTZI generated a new 5-week low weekly close and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .0263 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, nothing was broken and as such, the stock likely is continuing to trade in a sideways fashion as the traders await news. On a daily closing basis, the .031 level is a short-term pivot point to the upside and the .0291 the same to the downside. The .027 and the .037 are stronger pivot points that if broken would be indicative. Probabilities favor more sideways trading.

CAT generated an inside week and a small trading range (compared to the previous week) but the weekly close on Friday could be indicative as it was a red close which in turn make the previous close at 139.96 into a successful of the established 22-month resistance area around $140. The stock closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 140.60 than below last week's low at 123.68. Either way, this level of resistance is established and requires some help from either the DOW moving higher substantially or some positive company required news coming out. At this moment, the chart suggests that for this coming week, the stock will trade somewhere between $135 and $145 without any breakout or breakdown.

CNX had an uneventful inside week but did generate a red weekly close on Friday, meaning that a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 11.99, is now in place and that keeps the control in the hands of the bears. There is no intraweek support below until 9.67 is reached, suggesting a drop down to that level (or close to it) is likely to occur before another attempt at breaking the MA is seen. As such, any rally this week up above Friday's close at 11.27, should be considered an opportunity to take a profit and repurchase on a dip down to the $10 demilitarized zone. The stock did generate a reversal day on Friday and the first course of action for the week should be to the upside. With 11.66 as the objective. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

CRON generated another red weekly close and a new 13-week intraweek low. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 5.26 is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at 5.12. Pivotal support is found at 4.62. The company statement after the earnings report was not encouraging as they see no short-term relief from the pressures the Cannabis industry is experiencing, though they did state that those pressures do not affect the company itself as much as other companies. Nonetheless, the pressures are not likely to allow the company to prosper in the short-term. In looking at the daily chart, it seems likely that the stock will fall down to the $5 demilitarized zone and stabilize there. No break of pivotal support is likely to happen but the stock will now find minor to perhaps decent resistance around 6.00, suggesting a $5-$6 trading range will be in effect for the next few weeks. Probabilities favor more of the same this week.

ENG generated another red weekly close (the 3rd in a row) and once again closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .76 is expected to be seen this week. There is quite a bit of established intraweek support between .73 and .75 that should stop the down move. On a weekly closing basis, support is decent between .76 and .80. Any green weekly close at this time would suggest the worst of the correction is over. By the same token, the fundamental picture does not suggest the stock will be heading any lower than .73, meaning that either this week or at the latest the following week, that the bulls will be back in buying. As stated last week, the stock is now showing 5 spikes up to a downtrend line that started 11 years ago and usually there are 5 spike up (followed by drops) before a true breakout occurs. With the now 5-point trend line at 1.58 and the stock having rallied to 1.55 a few weeks ago, it does suggest that after this fall ends, the next rally will be "the one" and sustainable. In spite of the drop in price after the report, no long term support levels were broken. After a few weeks of retesting support and building new confidence, the stock should resume the uptrend. Probabilities for this week are 50-50 but for the week after, they at 80-20 in favor of the bulls.

MRNA generated a failure signal this past week, having closed on Friday (on a weekly closing basis), below the previous all-time high weekly close at 69.00. The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 65.23 will be seen. This failure signal does suggest that without new positive fundamental information being released, the weekly closing high for the rally is now set at 94.85. In addition, if this failure signal is not reversed this coming week, it will suggest the stock will trade between $61 and $70 until new information about their phase 111 results come out in a couple of months. The 100-day MA is currently at 61.33 and this is likely to be this week's downside objective. Nonetheless, that line has not been broken to the downside since last October and therefore unlikely to be broken this time around. If there are any surprises, they are likely to be to the upside as resistance levels above are all minor in nature, at least on an intraweek basis. The stock could go as high as 87.00 if there are any breaks of resistance. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 75.75 that if broken would give the $87 objective. For this week though, probabilities favor the bears for a drop down to the 100-day MA.

NEM generated an inside week but contrary to AU and Gold, a green weekly close occurred. The green weekly close does negate the big down week seen the week before and does suggest that the downside may be limited to last week's intraweek low at 62.65. The stock did close near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 65.22 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, if that does occur and 62.65 is not broken and is followed by another green weekly close next Friday, a new support level will have been built and that suggests the uptrend will resume in a couple of weeks. The stock did generate a gap up last Monday at 64.53 that should be closed. Nonetheless, once that has occurred, the bulls will likely step up to the plate once more. Pivotal short-term support is now found at 62.65 and resistance is now found 69.81. Probabilities favor the bears this week but only as far as the gap being closed. Resistance is not likely in play this week.

QQQ generated another new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 282.34 will be seen this week. The runaway freight train pattern that is being seen (no valleys) does suggest the index will continue higher until it no longer does or a negative catalyst occurs, which presently is not expected. Intraweek support is presently found at 264.63 that if broken would be a sign of a top having been found. That is not likely to occur this week. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SRUTF generated an uneventful inside week. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .0518 will be seen this week. The stock continues to have a short-term bullish bias. A weekly close below .05 is needed for that to change. Nonetheless, the Cannabis industry saw some sell interest this past week and it affected the stock. Upside objective right now is a minimum run to .08/.087 where some resistance is found. The previous week's intraweek high at .09 is now pivotal resistance that if broken would like cause the stock to test the 200-day MA, currently at .10. That line has not been broken to the upside for the past 13 months or tested for the past 12 months and is now a clear upside target if the recent news about the company is as good as it is sounds (likely). Pivotal support is now found at .04. Probabilities favor the bears this week but still within a mini breakout scenario.

W continued its runaway freight train scenario, having continued strongly higher this past week, making a new all-time high at 341.58 and closing on the high of the week, suggesting further upside will be seen this week. The stock has now rallied $136 (60%) over the past 5 weeks in a straight up manner and has absolutely no support below until very minor support is found at 205.80, meaning that any stoppage of momentum could result in a strong correction. Nonetheless, at this time there seems nothing to stop the bulls from taking the stock higher. Nearest support is found at 283.51 (minor) and when the stock stops rallying, that minor support is likely to be tested. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .83.

2) BTZI - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .030.

3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.31.

4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .056.

5) W - Averaged short at 97.47 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 340.66.

6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 138.43

7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 281.87.

8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 96.15.

9) AU - Averaged long at 25.68 (4 mentions). Stop loss at 26.48. Stock closed on Friday at 27.90.

10) NEM - Averaged long at 60.0125 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 65.67.

11) MRNA - Averaged long at 59.54 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 66.45.

12) QQQ - Day traded 5 times at different prices. End result of all those trades after commisions added - Loss of $345.

13) CNX - Purchased at 8.01. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 11.27.

14) W - Shorted at 330.12. Covered shorts at 329.76. Profit on the trade of $36 minus commissions.

15) AU - Purchased at 28.67. Liquidated at 28.42. Loss on the trade of $25 per 100 shares minus commissions.

16) NEM - Purchased at 63.97. Liquidated at 66.06. Profit on the trade of $209 per 100 shares minus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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