Issue #676
Jul 05, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Tech Sector Defies Odds. New All-time Highs Made!

DOW Friday closing price - 25827
SPX Friday closing price - 3130
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 10207

The indexes all generated a move back up of at least 3.2% (DOW) to 4.5% (NAZ). The NASDAQ continued to be the clear leader of the market, having generated a positive reversal week (lower low and higher high than the previous week) but also making a new all-time daily, weekly and monthly intraweek and closing highs. All indexes closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside will be seen this week above last week's highs. The dichotomy between the indexes continues to be strong as companies based on technology and internet sales continue to outperform all others. In fact, the DOW has generated inside weeks the past 3 weeks and maintains an overall bearish chart while the SPX remains neutral and the NASDAQ continues strongly bullish with new all-time highs seen every week the past 4 weeks.

All economic reports this past week came in better than expected and gave the bulls ammunition for a rally. Nonetheless, the recent spike in infections and deaths due to the Corona Virus as well as the once again instituted closures of businesses and re-imposition of social distancing were not part of this month's reports and will likely start to be factored in for next month's reports, suggesting that further upside is likely going to be difficult to accomplish, especially with few chart levels of support having been built and from where purchases can be made with limitation of risk. On the other hand, the 2nd quarter earnings reports start coming out the following week and those will also not include the recent problems due to the virus, meaning that the report will also be better than expected and therefore, traders are not likely to be taking profits or going short until after the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter are over. This leaves the door open for further upside if earnings come in better than expected.

Evidently, the NASDAQ will remain the strongest and with the index now being 5.7% above the previous all-time high, the probabilities do favor a sideways trading range scenario with the previous all-time weekly closing high at 9731 and the high made last week at 10310. In fact, there are some very valid reasons for thinking this trading range is the most likely scenario given that the 10,000 level is a strong psychological area, the index has now doubled in price from the high seen in the 2000 Dot.com area (doubled not only in price but exactly 20 years later) as well as there is a normality of chart trading that suggests that such a strong psychological area will see trading occur within the "general" resistance/support levels that are found 300 points above and below the psychological price (meaning 9700 to 10300). Given that the index is likely to go above last week's high at 10310 this week, it would suggest that the 10300 demilitarized zone (10270-10330) will be resistance, in turn meaning that a rally above last week's high will not be by more than 20 points.

There are no report of consequence due out this coming week and with the virus flaring up strongly at this time, it will be extremely difficult to rally the indexes much above last week's high, if at all it happens (such as the DOW having seen 2 weeks in a row of inside weeks. As such, the probabilities favor the 10,000 area in the NASDAQ being a magnet all week. In fact, and due to the virus infections increasing, I would venture to say the bears will have the edge all week.

It also needs to be mentioned again that the DOW and SPX remain with an island formation and that island has been in place now for 3 weeks without having been negated. This is in spite of 4 different opportunities the bulls have had to negate it, clearly seen in the SPX chart with the island being at 3181 and the index having gone up to 3153, 3155, 3154, and last week's high at 3165 on 4 different occasions. If there is a 5th try and it fails once again, it will require tangible positive news for the traders to try additional times. With the index having closed near the high of the week, it is likely there will be a 5th try occurring this week. I don't remember at this time any other occasions where more than 5 failed tries occurred that did not bring a strong move in the opposite direction. In this respect, this is the index that traders are likely to watch the closest this coming week.

In turning the attention to the downside, the lows made 4 weeks ago are now seen as "strongly pivotal" given that below those support levels, there is nothing close by below where the bulls could gather to mount a united defense. A break of those lows (DOW at 24843, in the SPX at 2965 and in the NASDAQ at 9403) would bring in a strong profit taking and new selling action and put the indexes back into a "retest of the lows" scenario. Those support levels will not be in play this week and are not likely to be in play until the big Tech earnings reports come out the first week of August. As such, any approach to those lows at this time is likely to bring in buying interest.

Probabilities favor the bears this week though at the beginning of the week it is likely that the bulls will have a short term edge. The earnings reports the following week are mostly financial and with the banks not seeing much new buying interest (JPM and C for example being at the same price they were 18 weeks ago), there will be little new buying interest this week, not even in expectation of better earnings reports the following week.


GOLD made a new 9-year intraweek and weekly closing high, having gone up above the 9-year intraweek high at $1797 (went up to $1807) and closing at the weekly closing high seen in 2011 at $1787. Golda closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly high probability of going above last week's high at $1807 than below last week's low at $1766. Nonetheless, the $1787 level is decent resistance and with this coming week not likely to have any catalytic reports or action, following through to the upside is not a given. The probabilities do favor the bulls as a new multi-year intraweek high was made and there is no reason at this time to be a seller or even to take profits. Above $1787, there is no resistance until the all-time high weekly close at $1856 ($1911 on an intraweek basis) is reached. Pivotal intraweek support is found at $1754 that if broken would be a negative sign. Probabilities favor the bulls.

OIL generated an inside week but did close at a new 17-week high weekly close. Oil did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 40.75 will be seen this week. The 17-week intraweek high is at 41.63 and if that is not broken this week and oil goes below this coming week's low the following week, it will be seen as a successful retest of the multi-week high and would likely bring in profit taking and new selling interest. There was no change in the fundamental picture last week and the action is more technically oriented than anything. In reality, there is no established chart resistance of consequence until the $47 level is reached so if the bulls are able to get above the previous weeks high at 41.63, there is nothing to stop them from running up to the $47 level (47.71 to be exact). By the same token, oil has been up to the $40 level on 10 of the past 17 trading days without being able to get above it convincingly, suggesting that a positive fundamental change has to occur to give the bulls the ammunition they need for further upside. To the downside, the $37 level is now pivotal support that if broken would bring in new selling interest. During the past 12 days, oil has traded between 37.08 and 41.63 and the same thing is likely to occur this week.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no mentions this week given that the probabilities favor a non-eventful week as the traders await the start of the 2nd quarter earnings reports that start the following week. I will be monitoring the action during the week and will let you know if anything does happen that will open the door for a trade being made. With the virus spiking up in numbers and the indexes at very high speculative levels, the possibilities of something unexpected do favor the bears. Nonetheless, at this time and with the earnings report quarter starting the week after, it is highly unlikely that anything of consequence will happen this week. Day trades though, may be available and I will give them to you if and when they become available.

Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018: Profit of $1,637 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2019: Profit of $13,051per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted

Status of account for 2020, as of 6/1

Loss of $14355 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for June per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

QQQ (short) $176
QQQ (short) &73
QQQ (short) $569
QQQ (short) $196

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

DD (short) $379

Total Profit for June, per 100 shares and after commissions $1393

Closed out losing trades for June per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

MPC (short) $43

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

NONE

Total Loss for May, per 100 shares, including commissions $43

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 6/30

AU (long) $1096

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

MRNA (long) $542
AU (long) $493
NEM (long) $1308

Total $3439

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 6/30

NONE

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

CRON (long) $208
ENG (long) $12
AXP (short) $13
CAT (short) $1911
MCIG (long) $1
SRUTF (long) $6
W (short) $7818
QQQ (short) $2848

Total $12817

Status of trades for month of June per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtracted.

Loss of $8,028

Status of account/portfolio for 2020, as of 6/30

Loss of $22,383

per 100 shares.



Updates on Held Stocks

AU made another new 7-year intraweek and weekly closing high but this time it closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 28.29 than above last week's high at 30.10. This is normal given that the stock reached a psychological resistance at $30 and a small pull back is expected to be seen. A retest of the previous multi-year daily and weekly closing high at 27.75 is expected to be seen and perhaps this week. Nonetheless, the trend remains bullish and with Gold having also made a new multi-year high, everything remains positive. Any daily close below 27.75 will weaken the chart and any confirmed daily close below that level would change the outlook. There is no intraweek resistance above until 35.38 (minor) but on a weekly closing basis some also minor resistance will start to be found at 31.77. Probabilities favor the bulls overall but this coming week could see a very minor drop to test the breakout level.

AXP generated a green weekly close but a very minor one given that the previous week's failure signal when the stock closed below a previous high weekly close of some consequence4 at 94.92 was confirmed with a close at 94.45. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 93.34 is expected to be seen this week. There is an open gap on the weekly chart at 91.43 that was not closed this week but that remains a viable target. Nonetheless, the previous week's low at 92.45 is now seen as a new (but minor) support level that will gather buying interest if the indexes continue higher. If broken though, the gap on the weekly chart will likely be closed. On the daily chart, the stock is still showing a breakaway/runaway gap formation with the runaway gap between 89.95 and last week's low at 92.45 that if closed, would suggest the breakaway gap down between 83.39 and 85.92 will be targeted. The probabilities of the weekly gap at 91.43 being closed are high but the probabilities decline substantially regarding the breakaway/runaway gap formation being closed, at least not until the company reports earnings on July 24th. As such, if the stock does get down to 91.43 this week but not down to 89.95, consideration should be given to taking profits and looking to re-short on a rally. By the same token, if the stock gets down to 89.95, holding the shorts for further downside would be the recommended thing to do. Resistance will now be minor to perhaps decent at the $100 demilitarized zone. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

CAT generated a positive week with a green close and a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 130.34 is likely to be seen. By the same token, the chart is showing insecurity on both sides (bulls and bears) given that for the past 4 weeks the stock has been straddling (2 weeks above and 2 weeks below) the 200-week MA, currently at 125.85, without any clear sign of direction from here. There is some minor to perhaps decent intraweek resistance at the $130 demilitarized zone and that level was reached on Friday and a bounce back down from that area was seen, given that the stock closed at 127.72. There is short-term pivotal resistance at 132.44 and the same for support at 120.80 and the probabilities favor the stock trading within that range until the earnings report comes out on July 24. The stock is sensitive to the index market and given that the indexes are not expected to do much this week, the same applies to the stock.

CNX did not see any follow through to the downside as was expected and ended up with an inside week and a green weekly close and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.90 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and other than stating that the recent weakness is not as week as originally thought, the bulls did not accomplish anything of consequence given that a weekly close above 9.37 is needed in order to supply new ammunition to the bulls. By the same token, the green weekly close does mean that the previous week's low at 8.18 has become a successful retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 8.15, and with the stock getting down to that price on Monday and then following up with 3 higher daily closes in a row, as well as a new high for those 3 days occurring on Thursday, it is suggesting that the bears have lost their short-term edge and that the bulls will be trying to restart the uptrend. Pivotal and indicative intraweek resistance is found at 9.43 that if broken, especially if a daily/weekly close above 9.37 occurs, the bulls will regain control. For this coming week though, the stock is likely to trade in a small trading range between 8.70 and 9.30. Earnings report due out July 27.

CRON generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 6-week low at 5.82 and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.24 will be seen this week. By the same token and other than showing that the bears are not yet in control, the bulls did not make any kind of a statement as a weekly close above 6.26 was needed to negate the failure signal given the previous week but the stock closed at 6.17. Like with many other stocks and some of the indexes, the traders seem to be waiting for some clarification of what the marketplace is going to do with the virus and the economic ills involved with it. By the same token and looking exclusively at the chart, a rally above last week's high will make last week's low at 5.82 into the second successful retest of the March low at 4.00 and that should give the bulls a slight edge for some rally, likely back up to the 7.20 level. The charts at this time suggest that the stock will be trading for the next few weeks between $6 and $7 with no clear signs of what will happen thereafter but with a very slight tilt to the bull side. The company does not report earnings until August 7. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week but nothing of consequence occurring.

ENG generated an inside week but did generate a new 6-week weekly closing high at 1.10. Pivotal weekly close resistance is found at 1.11/1.13 as there are 2 other previous weekly closes at 1.11 and the 200-week MA is currently at 1.13. The stock did generate a new buy signal on the daily closing high and this comes after a second successful and confirmed retest of the 200-day MA, currently at .97. The stock has now established itself strongly above the 200-day MA, having stayed above the line for the past 14 weeks and having tested it successfully repeatedly, suggesting the bulls will now have another attempt a breaking the 200-week MA that they have been at for the past 9 weeks and under the line for the past 4 years. The repeated attempts and the supportive fundamentals, suggest that sometime in the next couple of weeks, a breakout will occur. Minimum upside target is 1.33 and up to 1.48. The 4-point 10-year downtrend line on an intraweek basis is presently at 1.66 and at some point within the next 3-6 weeks that line is likely to be tested. A confirmed break of that trendline will open up the door for a rally up to the $5 level and a trading range between $4 and $5 thereafter. Probabilities favor the bulls.

MCIG continues to trade in the .0225 and .035 area that it has been in for the past 16 weeks. The trading ranges are minute as there seems to be no interest in selling or buying at this time. There is no sign yet that the traders are ready to break above or below that trading range at this time.

MRNA generated a second red weekly close in a row but no support levels were broken. The stock was trading positively at the beginning of the week but then the company announced there would be a delay in starting Phase 111 clinical trial of the vaccine that was due to start July 9th and the stock gave up all of its gains and fell 8% in value. Nonetheless, it was also announced that the delay was because changes to the trial protocol and that it could still start this month. The stock did recover about 3% of its losses at the end of the week. The stock did get down close to an established support level at $55 (low for the week was 55.81) and bounced. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range so further downside below last week's low is expected to be seen this week. On a positive chart note, the weekly chart shows short-term pivotal weekly close support at 58.19 that was not broken, suggesting the stock is likely to generate a green close next Friday. Probabilities favor the bulls.

NEM continued the upward recovery climb, having generated the 4th green weekly close in a row. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 61.97 is expected to be seen this week. The open gap on the weekly chart is at 62.30 and that gap is likely to be closed this week, which in turn would negate the chart negative that has kept the stock under sell pressure the past 5 weeks. Prior to the gap, the stock was leading all Gold stocks to the upside and once this gap is closed that pattern could return, especially if the resistance above at 64.65 is broken. Above that level there is no resistance until the multi-year high at 69.13 is reached. Intraweek support is now decent and likely short-term pivotal at 58.21. Probabilities favor the bulls.

QQQ generated a positive reversal week that totally negated the negative reversal week seen the week before. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 254.27 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock closed near the low of the day on Thursday and the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the downside with closure of Thursday's gap at 251.52 being the minimum objective. Like with its mother (the NASDAQ), there is no news due out this week that could support these higher prices and having had a negative reversal week the week prior and only going up this past week because of the positive economic news (which will not be additionally supported this week), the probabilities favor a back and forth week with more red than green being seen. Drops down close to last week's low at 2357.35 could be seen with the $240 level likely to be the magnet. Potential trading range for the week could be something like $240-$255. It would be a meaningless week other than to establish a new support level from which to launch a new rally if the earnings reports due out at the end of the month are positive or establish a support level near the previous all-time high weekly close at 236.98 that if broken, would mean the rally is over. Probabilities favor trading on both sides of green and red this week with a slight bias to the downside.

SCCO negated the break of the 200-week MA, currently at 38.23, with a week in which the stock traded all week above the line and closed above the line on Thursday (closed at 38.91). Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to make any statement as no resistance levels were broken. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last weeks' high at 39.93 or below last week's low at 37.94. With no statement being made, trading is likely to mimic the indexes this week. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 40.31. There is no close-by support below until the recent low at 35.45 is reached, which is also where the 200-day MA, currently at 35.93 is located. If the bulls are unable to get above 40.31, the chart suggests that a drop down to the MA line will be seen before the company reports earnings on July 27th. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

W generated a positive reversal week that negated the negative reversal week that occurred the previous week. The stock made a new all-time high at 222.30 and did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above that level is likely to be seen this week. By the same token and using the daily chart, a potential double top now exists on the chart with highs at 221.54 and 222.30 that is viable given that the fundamental upside objective of the rating companies following the stock is at $222 and that level has now been established as successfully tested given the red daily close on Thursday, with the stock having dropped $8 from Wednesday high at 222.30 and having closed near the low of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be below Thursday's low at 214.10. There is no support found until 197.27 is reached and that support is very minor in nature. Pivotal support is found at the previous week's low at 193.69 that if broken, would be a tangible sign that a top to the rally has been established. Company reports earning on August 4th. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but like with the indexes and many stocks, the week is likely to be mostly back and forth with both green and red being seen with a slight bias to the bears.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.10.

2) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0265.

3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.17.

4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0449.

5) W - Averaged short at 97.47 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 214.10.

6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 127.72

7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 252.19.

8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 94.33.

9) AU - Averaged long at 23.79 (3 mentions). Stop loss at 26.48. Stock closed on Friday at 28.98.

10) NEM - Averaged long at 60.0125 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 60.96.

11) MRNA - Purchased at 59.56. Averaged long at 56.783 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 51.69 on a daily stop close only. Stock closed on Friday at 57.57.

12) QQQ - Shorted at 248.25 and at 254.28. Covered shorts respectively at 247.97 and 251.86. Total profit on day trade of $260 per 100 shares minus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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