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Issue #679 
Aug 2, 2020 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Earnings Quarter for Big Stocks Over. Decision week Ahead!
DOW Friday closing price - 26428
The dichotomy between the indexes continued this past week with the DOW generating a red weekly close and the SPX gaining 1.8% and the NASDAQ gaining 3.5%. All indexes either closed in the upper half of the week's trading range (DOW) or on the highs of the week (SPX and NAZ) and further appreciation in price above last week's highs is expected to be seen this week.
All the catalytical earnings reports have now been released and in most cases they were better than expected, especially the Tech stocks in the NASDAQ. In fact, in the case of AAPL and AMZN they were even better than last year and that is a telling statistic. Then again, AAPL has doubled in price but earnings have only gone up 18% in value, suggesting it is overdone. In the case of AMZN though, the stock has gone up 180% but earnings have gone up 197% so the stock is properly valued. On the opposite side of the coin, GOOGL has gone up 32% in value but earnings have dropped 29% from last year. With the perhaps exception of AMZN, it is difficult to imagine that this uptrend will continue with these earnings numbers not being up as much as the value of the stock.
Nonetheless and in looking at the charts of these indexes, the SPX and the NASDAQ look poised for higher levels than the ones seen on Friday. The NASDAQ has been into new all-time highs most every week for the past 9 weeks and there is very little chart resistance above and then only on an intraweek basis, with which to measure how much further it can go up. As such, the SPX will be the index used to measure the overall viability of further upside and then only in a limited way given that it does still have a previous all-time high that will work as resistance, at least on a chart basis. It must be said that this coming week there are still chart and fundamental parameters that the bulls must overcome to be able to fully keep this rally going further. Let me explain.
The NASDAQ did make a new all-time high weekly close above the previous high seen 4 weeks ago at 10617. Nonetheless, the indexes generated an inside week last week after two negative reversal weeks in a row, meaning that the exact opposite of what has happened recently, happened this week. The previous all-time intraweek high is at 10839 and last week's high was 10747, meaning there is still clear and perhaps even decent resistance 92 points above last week's high. If that intraweek high is not broken this week, especially after all the earnings reports last week in the big stocks were better than expected, the 2 negative reversal weeks seen the prior 2 weeks will gain a lot of strength and the all-time intraweek high will become "major" resistance and a likely top to the rally. Under that scenario, it would suggest that next Friday, a failure signal will be given on the weekly closing chart. This would be dependable indication given that no further earnings reports of importance are scheduled. This means that further upside without being bullishly indicative is only 92 points above. It cannot get much clearer than that and also with such a small amount of room to the upside.
The SPX did generate a new 5-month weekly closing high and further upside is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the most recent 5-month intraweek high at 3279 was not broken, meaning that it is still resistance but likely easy to break as it only requires 9 points above Friday's close for that to occur. By the same token, there is still one big obstacle that the bears must overcome and that is the February gap that is up at 3328 and as long as that gap remains unclosed, the index will remain with a bearish overall tone to the long term. Closing that gap is not going to be easy as it still requires the same 1.8% rally that was seen last week but without the earnings help that was made available last week to all the indexes, the bulls will have problems. As such and in spite of the new 5-month weekly closing high, the bulls have not yet accomplished what they need to accomplish to make the index generate a V-shaped recovery that would wipe out totally all the negatives of the damage made by the virus.
I am not going to give any new analysis to the DOW as the index is simply the "lap dog" of the other indexes and not stimulating any new buy signals, especially considering that based on the red close on Friday, the index accomplished nothing this past week. As such, you can go back and look at the chart evaluation given in the newsletter the previous week to get the details on what the index can do from here on in, other than simply following the other indexes up or down.
There are still 2 economic reports scheduled for this week that have catalytic power. On Monday, the ISM Index report comes out and it is expected to be 53.4 (above last month's 52.6). Anything above 50 means growth so if the reports comes out as expected or better, it will help the bulls. Anything below, and especially below 50.00, would generate selling interest. On Friday, the Jobs report comes out and it is expected to be 1.6 mil. Last month was 4.8 mil. Anything above the expected would be positive, below the expected a negative. I personally do not expect either of these reports to be surprising in either direction but if they are, it would likely make a difference. It should be mentioned though, that economic reports have been coming out generally worse than expected (contrary to earnings reports) so if there are surprises they would likely help the bears more so than the bulls.
Monday, will likely be a pivotal day for the week given that the ISM Index reports comes out at 10:00 AM and the fact that the NASDAQ is so close to the previous all-time intraweek high. The two negative reversal weeks put the onus on the shoulders of the bulls and that onus should have been met on Friday after the earnings reports on the big stocks in the index came in better than expected. As such, the traders will be closely watching to see if new highs can be made. If they are not, it would likely cause profit taking to occur as there is very little data left that could help the bulls accomplish further upside.
I would say at this time that the probabilities favor the bulls but barely.
OIL generated a small failure signal, having closed on Friday below the previous high weekly close at 40.65. The failure signal was not all that convincing as it was only by $.20 cents, meaning not a clear bear statement. Nonetheless, it was enough to generate a short-term sell signal on the daily chart that suggests that further upside this coming week is not "in the cards" Fundamentally, the supply and demand scenario is slightly favoring the bears and it is evident by the action seen this past week that the probabilities favor more of what has been seen for the past 6 weeks, which is trade around the $40 level without any movement of consequence above or below that price. Based on a daily closing basis, it is likely oil will continue to trade in a $2 range between 39.62 and 41.96. Any close above or below one of these 2 levels would likely bring further movement in that direction. On an intraweek basis, the range expands to $4, with support at 38.52 and resistance at 42.38. Probabilities do not favor either side this week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
PURCHASES
AU Friday Closing Price - 32.19
As mentioned below in the Held Stocks updates, AU generated a strong negative week due to a downgrade to market perform and an extreme overbought condition that set the stock up for a big down move (17% drop from high to low last week). Nonetheless, the fundamentals remain very strong (have not changed) and the stock finds itself close to a chart level that has been important support for some 18 years, suggesting the drop last week is likely to be a 1-week anomaly.
AU's drop last week put the stock within $1-$2 of a support level that goes all the way back to 2003 and that repeatedly proven to be support when the stock has been trading above it. With the stock having closed on the lows of the week and further downside expected to be seen on Monday, purchases of the stock should be made given the clear support as well as the profit potential (risk/reward ratio) that is offered.
AU shows clear intraweek support between 30.57 and 30. 76 as well as psychological support at the $30 level. With the stock having made a new 8-year intraweek high last week and Gold into new all-time highs and expected to go higher, the opportunity to buy at this price is one that should be taken. Further details are found below under the Held Stocks updates section.
Purchases of AU around the $31 level and using a stop loss at 29.65 and having an upside objective of $47-$50, will offer a 10-1 risk/reward ratio. A retest of last week's new 8-year high at 38.50 is expected at the very least, meaning that even if no further upside above last week's high is seen, the trade will still offer at least a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 4.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
AAPL Friday Closing Price - 425.04
AAPL reported earnings on Thursday night and they were better than expected. The company has been a strong beneficiary of the corona virus due to being a Tech Company and is expected to maintain those benefits the rest of the year. Nonetheless, the stock is overbought at present and if the NASDAQ does not make new all-time intraweek highs this week, the stock is likely to at least retest its previous all-time daily closing high at 393.43 at some point.
Normally, this would not be a stock I would be buying (in spite of its strong fundamentals) given that it is at a new all-time high and strongly overbought. Nonetheless, the company announced they will be having a stock split on August 24th of 4-1, which makes the company more available for lower funded individuals to purchase, which at these prices they are not able to do so. In addition, it has been my experience during my 43 years of trading the market, that stock splits normally generate a move back up toward the previous price, meaning that when the stock splits down to around $100, that it will begin working toward getting back to the $400 level.
With a strong possibility that the stock will retest the previous all-time high at some point in the next few weeks and that previous all-time high will be around the very strong psychological level of $100 (after the stock split), this does suggest that if the desired entry point can be obtained, that the stock would be a good purchase.
This is not a mention that is likely to reach the desired entry point this week, which is around the $393-$397 level, meaning this mention is good until cancelled. Nonetheless, with the stock split already announced, purchases of AAPL can be made before the stock split occurs at lower amount of shares. For example, if 100 shares is what you want to own of the stock at $100, you could purchase 25 shares around the $400 level.
The only level where a stop loss can be placed at this time is at 356.48, which is 10 points below the previous week's low (which is now considered strong and pivotal support). This does suggest that a purchase around $397 will offer a $41 dollar risk (about a $10 risk after the split) per 100 shares. The upside objective would be long term with a rally back up toward the $400 level (once the stock split has occurred), meaning a risk of $4 to pick up $300 dollars. Evidently, this is certainly not a short-term objective but I will update every week what the viable objective is once the purchase is done at the desired entry point.
My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Updates
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| Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2020, as of 7/1 Loss of $22383 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for July per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
QQQ (short) $14 QQQ (short) $218 QQQ (short) $113 QQQ (short) $337 QQQ (short) $383 QQQ (short) $66 QQQ (short) $118 QQQ (short) $427 QQQ (short) $189 QQQ (short) $344 QQQ (short) $274 QQQ (short) $555 W (short) $25 W (long) $1195 W (short) $153 AXP (short) $53 MRNA (long) $2087 Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. NONE Total Profit for July, per 100 shares and after commissions $6551 Closed out losing trades for July per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
QQQ (short) $124
QQQ (short) $54 QQQ (short) $25 QQQ (short) $76 QQQ (short) $109 QQQ (short) $121 QQQ (short) $143 QQQ (short) $112 CNX (long) $45 CAT (short) $94 CAT (short) $52 W (short) $37 Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions. NONE Total Loss for July, per 100 shares, including commissions $898 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 7/31
CNX (long) $165
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
MRNA (long) $1978
AU (long) $810 NEM (long) $2984 CRON (long) $268 ENG (long) $150 AXP (short) $376 MCIG (long) $5 < Total $8194 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 7/31
NONE
Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
W (short) $20946 Total $26502 Status of trades for month of July per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtracted.
Loss of $12655
Status of account/portfolio for 2020, as of 7/31
Loss of $35,038 per 100 shares.
AU generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 8-year high and then closing red. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 32.06 is expected to be seen this week. The negative reversal occurred in spite of Gold making a new all-time high and that was because the stock received a downgrade from BMO Capital with a target of $34. Nonetheless, market perform is tied in to the performance in Gold and Gold is expected to continue higher the rest of the year. Chart-wise, the correction was not unexpected given that the stock had moved straight up for 7 weeks and broken all resistance levels going back to 2012 and did that without building any support on the way up. As such, this correction has the intention of building a new support base from which to attempt new rallies and a resumption of the uptrend. The stock broke above the intraweek resistance generated in June 2012 at 38.15, suggesting there is enough strength in the stock that the intraweek support built that year between 30.57 and 30.76 is not likely to be broken on this move down. As such, any drop seen this week near that area should be purchased using a stop loss at 29.65. There is no resistance above until 40.91 is reached and that is minor resistance. With Gold continuing higher and the company on July 27 stating they expect to show much higher earnings on September 4th, purchasing the stock this week around the $31 level seems to be a slam dunk trade with at least the $41 level as the minimum objective. Some resistance will now be found at the most recent high at 37.91. Expected trading range for the next few weeks is $31-$38. Any new high above last week's high at 38.50 should bring about a rally to 41.91 but there is no resistance of consequence until 47.17 is reached. I also have to mention that the stock traded between $30 and $50 during 8 of the 9 years between 2003 and 2012 and 70% of that time it was between $35 and $50, meaning this is an area that is well known and in which the traders feel comfortable trading in (in other words, not the exception but the rule). It also needs to be mentioned that during those years, Gold was trading lower than where it is now, and that supports the bulls much more than the bears. Probabilities favor the bulls.
AXP generated a red weekly close this week but did it at a price (93.32) where the confirmed failure signal against the bears at 94.82 was negated. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 92.23 is expected to be seen. The stock continues to show a bearish inverted flag formation with the flagpole being the drop from 115.93 down to 89.587 and the flag being the trading range up to 97.79 seen the past 6 weeks. A break below the bottom of the flag will offer a downside objective 71.44. Evidently, a break above the top of the flag at 97.79 would negate the formation so that level is now considered decent and pivotal resistance. Probabilities are high that the stock this week will get down near the 89.54 level while the traders await the results of the economic reports scheduled for this week, as well as watch what the indexes do. Further upside in all indexes, above the levels of resistance mentioned above, would suggest the flag will not be triggered but negated. Then again, the opposite is true if the bulls fail in the index market. The downside target of the flag is viable given that the March low was 67.00. Probabilities slightly favor the bears. CAT generated a negative key reversal, having made a new 28-week high and then closing below the previous week's low at 134.26 (closed at 132.88). The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 130.21 is expected to be seen this week. The 200-week MA is currently at 126.84 and that is a very viable (if not highly likely) target for this week. The MA line has been a very dependable indicator of trend. The stock traded above the line from October 2016 until the pandemic selloff occurred where the line was broken in February. It traded below the line for 7 weeks and then straddled it for 3 weeks before breaking above it convincingly 4 weeks ago. The negative reversal week seen after the earnings report came out, virtually assures the line will be tested again. What happens at the line will likely set the stage for what happens to the stock for the next 3 months. There is minor intraweek support at 123.15, minor to decent at 118.01/118.74 and then decent at 111.75/112.06. Some resistance will now be found at 133.99. The stock gapped down on Friday after the earnings report and did drop down to the 200-day MA, currently at 129.56, with a low on Friday at 130.21. Another gap on Monday (or any day this week) below the MA line, would generate a breakaway/runaway gap formation that would be strongly short-term negative and suggest that a drop down to the $112 would then become the objective. Evidently and like with almost all stocks, much will depend on what the indexes do this week. Nonetheless and based on the stock chart, the probabilities favor the bears. CNX generated an inside week but did extend the rally on a weekly closing basis, having closed $.03 cents above the previous week's close. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 9.67 will be seen this week. The green weekly close did confirm the previous week's negation of the failure signal against the bears with a second close in a row above 9.37. The close on Friday has to be considered a bull statement given that the company reported earnings and they were worse than expected. Intraweek support is now found at 8.75. Intraweek resistance is not found until the 10.74/11.07 level is reached. Probabilities favor the bulls. CRON generated an uneventful week as neither support nor resistance was broken. Then again, the stock did close green on Friday and that takes away from the previous week red close and once again gives a slight edge to the bulls. The stock continues to trade around the 200-day MA, currently at 6.68, and now trading around the line has been going on for the past 8 week, with last week's straddle of the line being the third attempt at breaking above it convincingly. The chart parameters for this week are clearly set between 7.20 to the upside and 6.40 to the downside. A break of either will generate further movement in that direction and give the bulls or the bears a clear short-term edge based on which gets broken (support or resistance). The fact that the bears have built a clear and dependable support area over the past 5 months and that now the stock has been around the 200-day MA for 8 weeks, suggests that a breakout is much more likely than a breakdown. The company reports earnings on Thursday AM and that is likely to be the key this week. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG had a strong week, having confirmed the previous week's break above the 200-week MA, currently at 1.12, with a second weekly close above that level. In addition, the stock gave a new buy signal on the weekly closing chart, having made a new 2-year weekly closing high above what was considered a decent to perhaps strong weekly close resistance at 1.19 (closed at 1.28). The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 1.34 is expected to be seen this week. The stock does have a lot of established and decent to perhaps strong intraweek resistance between 1.47 and 1.55, as well as a 10-year 4-point downtrend line currently at 1.57, that is going to be very difficult (if not close to impossible) to break. Nonetheless, reaching that level this week is highly probable. On a weekly closing basis, the resistance is at 1.40. There is a high probability that will be the close next Friday. The following week on Tuesday, the company reports earnings and that will be the key as to whether the stock breaks the 10-year downtrend line or not. With 4 previous points on the line, it is more probable that a 5 point on the trendline will occur, suggesting that "no", the breakout will not occur on this occasion. Any weekly close above 1.66 will be a major sign that the bulls have won and that would open the door for the stock to rally up to the $4-$5 level. Weekly close support is now decent and pivotal at 1.11. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but thereafter, it is a flip of the coin. MCIG continues to trade in the .0225 and .035 area that it has been in for the past 18 weeks. The trading ranges are minute as there seems to be no interest in selling or buying at this time. There is no sign yet that the traders are ready to break above or below that trading range at this time. The stock now shows 6 weekly closes in a row between $.0252 and $.0279. MRNA generated a second uneventful inside week in a row. The stock did generate a green weekly close but closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 73.60 will be seen this week. The company continues to receive good news that has negated the bad news it received two weeks ago when one of its patents was negated and also when a downgrade occurred that offered a $65 price objective. It is important to note that the stock has not yet generated a drop below a previous week's low since the rally up 95.21 occurred and that is now what is likely to happen this coming week. Such a drop below a previous week's low is actually a positive given that it allows for a new support level to be established once the stock turns around and goes above the previous week's high. Establishing a new support level is needed right now as the news has been mixed (not as bullish as before) and the traders need to start trading the stock from a chart point of view rather than from the fundamentally speculative way it was been traded before. On the daily chart, a correction low has been established at 66.54. In addition, the previous high daily close from which the breakout to $95 occurred is at 66.57, meaning that area has to hold up on both on an intraweek and daily closing basis. There is daily close support at 73.21 that if broken would suggest that lower support level will be tested. With the stock closing at 74.10 on Friday, it is evident that Monday's close is short-term pivotal as a green close would give new ammunition to the bulls while a close below 73.21, ammunition to the bears. The 200 60-minute MA is currently at 71.10 and the chart suggests that line will be seen this week and likely on Monday. Some intraweek support is found at 70.55 that if broken would be short-term bearish. If that level holds up and the stock also holds the intraday MA, new buying interest will likely be seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but it is "touch and go" as the long term fundamentals outlook for the company remains strongly bullish. NEM generated a strong week in which the stock made a new 9-year intraweek and weekly closing high. The stock closed within $.41 cents of the all-time high weekly close at 69.61 and got up to within $1.24 of the all-time intraweek high. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 70.30 is expected to be seen this week. With the stock closing so close to the all-time high, the bulls are committed to making a new all-time high weekly close next Friday. A red close would open the door to a double top and the bulls cannot afford to let that happen. The stock did generate a mini correction low on Thursday at 64.53 that is now strongly pivotal. A break of that level would now be a clear negative, meaning that stop losses can now be placed at 64.43. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. QQQ made a new all-time weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 265.95 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, on an intraweek basis, the stock is facing two resistance levels at 268.41 and at 269.79. With the stock having generated one previous successful retest of the all-time high and failing to break that resistance area last week with all the positive Tech earnings reports, the bulls are facing 2 obstacles they need to get above and do so with no catalytic earnings reports scheduled. One additional negative is that the stock did not make a new all-time daily closing high, having closed at 265.79 on Friday and the all-time high daily close is at 266.78. A red close on Monday will generate a required/needed retest of the all-time high. If that occurs, profit taking would likely occur and in a big way. As such, Monday's close is important (contrary to the NASDAQ). Pivotal intraweek support is now found at 251.32. Probabilities actually slightly favor the bears though much is dependent on the close on Friday and the stock is due to open higher Monday morning. W generated once again a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high at 267.41 and at 266.06 respectively. The stock has now reached and surpassed the most recent rating objective of $260 and is 13.1% above the previous high made last week. Nonetheless, the company reports earnings on Wednesday morning and at these prices (and above what the fundamental outlook projects out to), the onus will be on the shoulders of the bulls to support the extreme overbought condition and the 57% rally above last earnings report. Common sense would suggest that is going to be difficult to achieve, given that AAPL has only rallied 36% above the previous earnings report and AMZN has only rallied 30% above its previous earnings report and certainly those companies have strong reasons to support their rallies. Simply speaking, can an online "furniture" company be able to generate a bigger rally than a Tech company in this pandemic scenario? That is the question. The stock did gap up on Friday and did it without any news 256.19 and 259.01 and closed on the high of the day/week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 267.41 will be seen this week. The bulls need to generate another gap to keep this gap from becoming a magnet and that is not likely to happen due to the earnings report on Wednesday. Closure of the gap will not be a negative but a daily close below the previous all-time high daily close at 229.88 would be. Probabilities do favor the stock moving down on Monday and Tuesday toward the 229.88 level while the traders await the earnings report. I have to surmise that the probabilities favor the bears this week if for no other reason that it is somewhat senseless to believe this stock will continue to outperform the Tech stocks mentioned above. I have a feeling that the stock will tumble after the earnings report. Nonetheless, I do not have supporting chart evidence that my "feeling" is correct or even viable.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.28. 2) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0279. 3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.55. 4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .041. 5) W - Averaged short at 97.47 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 266.09. 6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 132.88 7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 265.79. 8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 93.32. 9) AU - Averaged long at 23.79 (3 mentions). Stop loss at 26.48. Stock closed on Friday at 32.19. 10) NEM - Averaged long at 60.0125 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 69.20. 11) MRNA - Averaged long at 55.395 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 74.10. 12) QQQ - Day Traded 4 times at different prices. End result of all those trades after commisions subtracted - Profit of $102. 13) CNX - Purchased at 8.01. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.65. 14) SCCO - Liquidated at 44.92. Purchased at 43.75. Loss of $117 per 100 shares plus commissions. 15) W - Day traded 4 times at different prices. End result of all those trade after commissions subtracted. Profit of $1866. 16) CAT - Shorted at 139.95. Covered shorts at 139.28. Profit of $67 minus commissions. 17) MRNA - Purchased at 59.56. Liquidated at 80.57. Profit on the trade of $2101 per 100 shares minus commissions.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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