Issue #678 ![]() Jul 26, 2020 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
|
Traders Beginning to Ask Tough Questions. Some Answers Ahead in Next 2 Weeks!
DOW Friday closing price - 26469
The indexes all generated red weekly closes, suggesting the momentum to the upside has waned or stopped. All indexes closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's lows is expected to be seen this week (DOW below 26402, SPX below 3200 and the NASDAQ below 10217).
This year continues to be unique as the chart history and action of each index has been different. The laggard has been the DOW, the judge has been the SPX and the leader by far has been the NASDAQ. Evaluating the indexes apart from each other has been challenging given that normal guidelines to the "overall market" are not being seen. The NASDAQ has seen new all-time highs in excess of what normally would happen in a bull market. The SPX is close to showing a V-shaped recovery where the index is close to where it was prior to the virus and the DOW is showing signs that no further upside is possible and at levels (75% recovery) where a bounce from a bear market has been seen in the past before resuming the bear market trend. Speculating on which one of these index is showing the road from here on in, is impossible using chart history
To give an example of a unique situation (never seen before), the NASDAQ has now seen 2 negative weekly reversals in a row with one of them being a key reversal. The previous week the index made a new all-time high and then went below the previous week's low and closed red. In the past, such a reversal would at least have brought about some further downside and a correction (be it small or larger). The index never went below the previous week's low and turned around to make a new all-time high for the 8th week in a row but then once again reversed downward and generated another red weekly close. All of this without a single economic news catalyst to support it. I went all the way back to 1990 (30 years) and did not find one single incident where such action has occurred, not even in the year 2000 (Dot.com era), which has been often been said to be reminiscent of what is happening now. With no history to compare with, chart evaluation is useless.
The SPX has been the index some traders have followed, given that it doesn't have some of the fundamental positives that exist in the Tech heavy NASDAQ and therefore a bit more reliable indicator for the overall market. Nonetheless, the index has recovered 90% of its losses but generally speaking in a bear market, an index will only see a 75% recovery, meaning that the 90% recovery having been seen puts it into a limbo category where no one can effectively say whether it will continue up or fail here. This is even more difficult since all the important earnings reports in the index have come out, which should either stimulated the index up to at least the previous all-time high or given a sign that no further upside is to occur. Neither of those occurred this week. The DOW has been a more "normal" indicator of the economic problems being seen but then again, it only represents 35 companies and those being some of the most economically harmed industries in the virus world. As such, it is almost impossible to determine at this time, especially with another 2 weeks of earnings and economic reports of consequence still to come out, what will happen.
On the other side of the coin, all action seen this week in the indexes suggests the bears might now be getting an edge. The double negative reversal in the NASDAQ, the negative reversal and failure to close the March gap in the SPX and the inside week and red weekly close that generated a second successful retest of the all-time high in the DOW are signs that the bears may be gaining control that can only be negated if there are positive fundamental events that occur over the next 2 weeks. With the virus raging on and continuing to rise in numbers (instead of curbing down), the Fed now having done everything possible to stimulate the economy and having no ammunition left for more, and the stimulus program by the government for the public and business sectors likely to be done this coming week and likely to be the last one done, there doesn't seem to be any positive surprises left to be found. Simply stated, the anticipation is now about to be over and the reality is now going to be felt.
As such, I will attempt to give you what I see the outlook to be for the next 2 weeks while the earnings and economic reports come out and the levels that if broken during this period of time or immediately thereafter would suggest will happen.
Let me start with the NASDAQ. Two negative reversals in a row have never been seen and if that happens to be negated again this week, the bears will likely give up and go into total hibernation. This suggests that the index is likely to have found a top this week at 10839. With the previous high being 9838, it means the index has rallied a bit over 10% from the previous high. In addition, the 9838 high was a major high prior to the big drop, meaning that 10839 could be psychologically the same situation. Evidently and normal to chart trading, the previous all-time high at 9838 is likely to be tested before any new buying interest is seen, if and when further upside above the all-time highs could be accomplished fundamentally. This means that a drop down to 9839 is certainly possible for this week and/or the next. That previous high weekly close is also a very important pivot point for the rest of the year. A confirmed weekly close below 9838 would likely bring about not only a major amount of profit taking but a lot of new selling interest. This coming week should be mostly red.
The SPX failed to close the gap at 3328, having seen a high at 3279 this past week. The index saw a negative reversal occur, meaning further downside is to be seen this week. The previous weekly closing high is at 3193 and a confirmed weekly close below that level would generate a failure signal that would not likely be negated, especially since most of the important earnings reports have already come out. Closure of the gap above, would be a bullish sign, suggesting that the index has some clear parameters that would confirm a bullish or bearish scenario.
The DOW will be seeing most of its important earnings reports this week and therefore will be the index to watch. The red weekly close on Friday does mean that already 2 successful retests of the all-time high have occurred. Evidently it is the weak sister among the 3. A weekly close above the previous week's close at 26671 would be a positive for the bulls but a close above the high weekly close seen 8 weeks ago at 27111 would be a bullish statement. To the downside, any weekly close below 25015 would be a bear statement that would bring in a rush of new selling interest.
What is to happen the next two weeks while all the important earnings and economic reports come out is not something that I can give you all that much input into but the parameters given above, will be the keys during this period of time. This week though, the probabilities do favor the bears somewhat. By the same token, important earnings for the DOW will come out Tuesday morning and Wednesday afternoon and for the NASDAQ on Thursday afternoon when AMZN and GOOGL come out. As far as economic reports, Tuesday morning with the Consumer Confidence number coming out is the one the traders will key on.
Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but there are reports that could change that.
OIL generated a 5-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed right in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal probabilities of going above last week's high at 42.40 than below last week's low at 39.83. Oil did confirm the daily close breakout seen on Tuesday with 3 closes in a row thereafter above 40.65 but that breakout still needs to be confirmed this coming Friday on the weekly chart with another close above 40.65, in order for the traders to jump aboard. On an intraweek basis, there is no resistance above until the $47-$48 levels are reached. Nonetheless, there is minor to perhaps decent daily close resistance found at the previous multi-year low daily close at 43.16. If broken, the next level of resistance is found at 45.33, which was also minor to perhaps decent weekly close resistance found at the previous multi-year low weekly close at 45.33. As such, the rally from here on up, if the breakout is confirmed, will not be straight up but likely choppy. By the same token, the $40 demilitarized zone on a closing basis is now the new support level, if and when this breakout gets confirmed next Friday. Probabilities favor the bulls.
|
Stock Analysis/Evaluation
|
CHART Outlooks
Once again there are no mentions this week. Things are not yet clear enough on general or even industry direction at this time on where they are headed (up or down). Nonetheless, we are down to the last 2 weeks of this general uncertainty as things are slowly but surely getting clearer, more so than they have been the past 2 weeks. As such, perhaps next week but surely 2 weeks from now, I will be deciding on what to do with the present positions and at that time I will be looking for new opportunities to trade. Things this past week "began to gel" but not yet enough to have confidence that the gel will harden into tangible probability numbers.
Nonetheless, day and overnight trades will continue to be possible and I will mention them in the message board when available.
|
Updates
|
Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AU made yet another (5th in a row) new 7-year intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 34.82 will be seen this week. There is no intraweek resistance above until 34.97/35.38 (minor). There is some weekly close resistance at 34.76 that will be closely watched this week as the stock closed on Friday at 34.61. It is minor in nature but if a red weekly close occurs next Friday, a drop back down to weekly close support at 31.77 would likely occur. If a weekly close above 35.38 occur, it is open air until 36.68.36.81. Probabilities do favor the stock trading in a weekly close trading range between 31.77 and 36.81 for the next few weeks. As such, some trading should be considered, taking profits around the high of the trading range and re-purchasing near the low of the trading range. If there are any surprises, they will likely be to the upside. Probabilities favor the bulls. AXP reported earnings on Friday but though they were slightly better than expected, the stock fell 1.4% in price. On a weekly closing basis, the bulls eked out a very small win, having closed $.15 cent higher than the previous week. The stock closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting even probabilities of going above last week's high at 97.78 than below last week's low at 93.30. It is likely the stock will follow the indexes market (more specifically the DOW) and with that index showing a slightly bearish outlook for this week, the bears have a slight edge. The stock had an inside week and with the earnings now out, it is tied in totally to what index does. A break above 97.90 (minor to decent resistance) would suggest the $100 level would be tested. A break below last week's low at 93.30 would suggest a retest of 89.58 would occur. A break of the latter support would generate a move down to at least 83.39 to close the breakaway gap that is located there. Probabilities are even for both sides this week. CAT generated an inside week but did make a new 23-week high weekly close and did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 138.69 will be seen this week. The stock does report earnings on Friday, so the end result for the week will be decided after the report comes out. There is a "mountain" of weekly close resistance around the 138.36 level and up to the 143.36 level that is highly unlikely to be broken without some fundamental help. On an intraweek basis, the resistance is found at 144.77 that at this time looks unbreakable. Minor to decent intraweek resistance is found between 139.94 and 140.99 that is unlikely to be broken before the earnings report comes out, but the bottom of that trading range has a high probability of being seen. Last week's low at 134.36 is now a short-term pivot point that if broken would bring about at least a drop down to 132.78 but probably down to 129.30. The bulls do have the short-term edge but the earnings report is what is going to be the key. So far, earnings reports have come in better than expected but have not generated rallies. As such, the same is likely to happen here. CNX generated a breakout of pivotal resistance as well as a failure signal against the bears, having closed above the 9.37 level on Friday, which was pivotal on both charts. The stock did close exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning equal chance of going above last week's high at 9.90 or below last week's low at 9.32. The deciding factor will be the earnings report that comes out Thursday AM. The fact that the bulls were able to generate enough buying to give both a buy and failure signal suggests strength and therefore the earnings report would have to disappoint for the breakout not to be confirmed this week. Nonetheless, that is question at this time. Intraweek support is found at 9.20 and trend changing support at 8.30. Intraweek resistance is not found until the 10.74/11.07 level is reached. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. CRON was not able to follow through on the previous week's close on the highs and the bulls gave up the ship and the stock went below the previous week's low, meaning the traders are not yet ready to make a commitment to the upside. The action the past 2 weeks was all about testing the 200-day MA, currently at 6.71. This was the second time that line has been tested successfully. The stock did close near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 6.20 is expected to be seen but there is some support at 6.20 that might hold up. If that support does not hold up, the double low at 5.82/5.85 must not be reached or a triple low would be built. As such, the 6.00 level needs to be defended by the bulls. The stock does not report earnings until August 6th, so the trading will be all chart oriented for the next 9 trading days. Probabilities favor a 6.00 to 6.75 trading range until the earnings report comes out. ENG broke and closed above a minor to perhaps decent weekly close resistance at 1.11 and more importantly closed above the 200-week MA, currently at 1.13, for the first time since last August when it closed above the line for 1 week. The weekly close resistance at 1.19 was not broken, meaning that traders are leaning bullish but not yet convinced that further upside is to come. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.07 will be seen this week. The company does not report earnings for another 2+ weeks so the probabilities continue to favor support but with no breakout of consequence occurring until the earnings report comes out. As such, I expect the bears will have a slight edge this week and that a red weekly close next Friday around the 1.11/1.13 level will occur. Any daily close above 1.23 would be a breakout of consequence. Any daily close below .96 would be a breakdown of consequence. Probabilities favor sideways to slightly down trading this week. MCIG continues to trade in the .0225 and .035 area that it has been in for the past 18 weeks. The trading ranges are minute as there seems to be no interest in selling or buying at this time. There is no sign yet that the traders are ready to break above or below that trading range at this time. MRNA generated an inside week but a red weekly close occurred with a close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 66.54 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a confirmed failure signal on the daily closing chart, having closed below 80.00 for 2 days in a row. This was all due to a new rating coverage started but only a $65 objective. In addition and the reason for Friday's fall, the company lost a minor patent deal that brought some panic profit taking occurrence when put together with the $65 rating price. The stock did close on the high of the day on Friday and the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the upside with a retest of the $80 daily close resistance level as the likely objective. Overall and fundamentally, everything remains positive but the $95 high that was seen 2 weeks ago is considered too high a price for the fundamentals at this time and at least until some new positive fundamental news comes out, that high is likely to be a top for now. As stated when the first mention was given, some shares should be treated as buy and hold because the future of this company is bright and not only on the corona virus front but in everything to do with new cures for illnesses. Nonetheless, at this time traders are keyed only on the corona virus vaccine and due to other companies already in that space as well and pricing for the vaccine when it comes out has been determined as well, the shares not buy and hold should be traded. Probabilities favor the stock trading between $65 and $80 for the next few weeks, meaning that if $80 is seen this week, liquidation of some of the help positions should be considered. Probabilities do favor the bears this week. NEM continued the rally and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 67.08 is expected to be seen. The stock closed $1.15 from the recent 7-year high at 67.90 and $2.86 from the all-time high at 69.61. With Gold making a new all-time high and having the opportunity to prove that further upside up to $2000 (or higher) is to come, it does suggest the stock could also do the same. Important and likely pivotal daily close support is now found between 62.42 and 63.43 that if broken would negate the recent gain and turn the stock short term negative. One important thing for this week. With Gold making a new all-time high weekly close and the stock now at levels that any red weekly close would be a negative, the bulls are 100% committed to make a new high above 67.90 as well as to at least test the all-time high. Probabilities favor the bulls. SCCO generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 6-month high and then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 42.25 will be seen next week. What is more important is that a double top on both the intraweek and weekly closing basis was formed (intraweek at 44.82/44.36 and weekly close at 43.93/43.68). Evidently, confirmation needs to occur this week with another weekly close below 43.68 next Friday. Should confirmation occur (likely), there is no support below until 40.92/41.12 is reached. Below that, there is mostly open air to 35.45. Resistance is evidently at the highs mentioned above. Company reports earnings the following week. Probabilities favor the bears this week. QQQ confirmed the negative reversal seen the previous week, having gone below the previous week's low and closing red for the second week in a row. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 251.32 is expected to be seen. Once again, the stock underperformed the NASDAQ and that is negative. Minor resistance is found at 262.69 and then nothing until 268.91 is reached. Last but not least, a sell signal was generated on the daily chart with Friday's close below 258.54 (closed at 255.56). If that sell signal is confirmed on Monday, the bears will likely be in control the rest of the week, Probabilities favor the bears. W once again made a new all-time intraweek high at 234.37 but the bulls failed to confirm that new intraweek high, having still closed below the previous all-time high weekly close at 223.76 (closed at 222.79). The stock closed very slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 234.37 that below last week's low at 209.12. Nonetheless, the stock remains highly volatile (trading in a $25 trading range last week (10% trading range) and the fact that the stock did not make a new all-time weekly closing high in spite of the new all-time intraweek high, suggests the bulls are running out of ammunition. This week, it is all about the weekly close next Friday. Any red weekly close would make last week's close into the first successful retest of the high weekly close since the rally started in March. A close next Friday below the previous week's close at 215.83 would generate the first sell signal during the entire 4 month rally and suggest a drop back down to the previous all-time high weekly close at 169.69 would become the objective. Any daily close below 210.80 would do the same chart damage as the weekly close below 215.83. Company reports earnings on August 5th. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.
|
1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.15. 2) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0279. 3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.29. 4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .041. 5) W - Averaged short at 97.47 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 222.79. 6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 137.58 7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 255.56. 8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 95.33. 9) AU - Averaged long at 23.79 (3 mentions). Stop loss at 26.48. Stock closed on Friday at 34.61. 10) NEM - Averaged long at 60.0125 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 66.75. 11) MRNA - Averaged long at 56.783 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 73.21. 12) QQQ - Day Traded 4 times at different prices. End result of all those trades after commisions subtracted - Profit of $851. 13) CNX - Purchased at 8.01. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.62. 14) SCCO - Purchased at 43.75. Stop loss at 44.92. Stock closed on Friday at 43.08. 15) W - Shorted at 227.79. Covered shorts at 227.40. Profit of $39 per 100 shares minus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
|
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
![]() |
|
|