Issue #685
Sep 13, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Correction Continues!

DOW Friday closing price - 27665
SPX Friday closing price - 3340
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 10853

All indexes followed through to the downside this past week with the DOW and SPX dropping around and additional 2% in value from the previous week and the NASDAQ a bit more than 4%. The indexes all closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's lows are expected to be seen this week (DOW below 27447, SPX below 3310 and NAZ below 10727). In the case of the SPX and the NASDAQ, the red closes confirmed the key reversal that occurred the previous week and the DOW confirmed that there is now a successful retest of the all-time highs. All of this is supportive of a correction occurring that based on prior corrections seen in the past 10 years under the same circumstances and based on the seasonality of corrections in September/October suggests that this correction is only at the halfway mark. The NASDAQ has so far corrected 11.2% and it is anticipated that as much as a 24% correction will be seen by the middle or the end of October.

The SPX was the main story this week given that a failure to follow through signal was given when the index closed below the previous all-time high weekly close at 3380 (closed at 3340) and with the index being the decider between the other two indexes, if the index fails to negate the failure signal next Friday, the traders will be convinced this is a true "market" correction and not just an industry correction (such as the NAZ and tech stocks).

As such, what is now clearly expected is that over the next 4 weeks the indexes will overall be heading lower. The potential targets for the correction is 24543 in the DOW as that is where the 200-week MA is at. That line is a perfect target within a bull market correction. Nonetheless, and based on the two previous corrections in the last 10 years under these similar circumstances, a drop all the way down to 23359 could be seen on an intraweek basis. The index has so far been the least affected by the correction due to money shifting toward the safety of the less speculative stocks in the index. The index has only so far corrected only 6.1% (versus the NAZ having corrected 11.2%) but the reality is that companies in the index are definitely the most affected by the economic ills of the virus and based on the 20% correction that was seen in 2015 and the 16% correction seen in 2018, another 12-16% correction is likely to happen.

In the SPX, the downside target could also be the same 200-week MA, currently at 2753. Nonetheless, the currently situation with interest rates being so low and the Fed being so accommodative to stimulus, it is doubtful such a correction of that magnitude will occur. In 2015 the index corrected 21.7% and in 2018 it corrected 15.2%, meaning that based on those corrections, the index could get down to anywhere between 2816 and 3020. Certainly the 3000 level is a magnet that will draw the index down to at least that level.

The NASDAQ downside target has to be the previous all-time weekly closing high at 9731. The Tech sector will continue to be the main draw to investors as it is the index where the money has mostly gone to and that is not likely to change. Nonetheless, in normal market corrections, the previous all-time highs are always magnets that draw the index down to them but maintain the bull trend outlook. As such, a drop down to that level is likely to be seen. In 2015 the index corrected 24.5% and in 2018, the index corrected 19.8% and that would mean a correction from the recent high at 12070 of 20.4%, which fits in well with the two previous corrections seen in the last 10 years.

One potential additional negative that has to be considered is that we are 56 days away from the election. In neither 2015 or in 2018 was that a factor but this year it is a big factor that needs to be considered. The election of Trump in 2016 caused the DOW to rally 63% in value, the SPX to rally 57% in value and the NASDAQ to rally 140% in value (over his presidency). If Trump is seen as not winning this election (as the polls presently show), the market will see that as a negative and could cause the indexes not only to have a correction but a beginning of a bear market. Given that the outcome of the election will not be known until the first week of November, it is not necessarily going to affect how much the indexes correct at this point. By the same token, if the downside objective levels mentioned above are reached and surpassed, mostly based on the NASDAQ and the 9731 weekly close level, then instead of a correction occurring, the market will be in a bear market. As such, this is something to keep in the back of your minds.

For this coming week, there are no catalytic reports scheduled. Retail Sales, Industrial production and Capacity Utilization, and on Wednesday the FOMC rate decision, are the reports due out. It is highly unlikely that any of these reports will make a fundamental difference that would change the outlook fundamentally. By the same token, volatility has increased and will continue, meaning the indexes will continue to see big trading ranges as well as lots of green and red, though red will be the most prevalent. Intraweek resistance will be found at last week's highs (DOW at 28206, SPX at 3424 and NASDAQ at 11299). Those highs should be inviolate this week. If broken, then the chart outlook may change slightly for the short term. Nonetheless, based on the action last week and the outlook for the downside objectives of the correction, those highs should not be broken this week.

Probabilities favor the bears this week.


GOLD generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $1975 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, nothing of consequence was accomplished this past week other than to maintain (and build upon) the bullish flag and pyramid formation that has been formed over the past 44 weeks (flag) and the last 6 weeks (pyramid). Upside objective of the flag upon breakout is $2311 over a period of 44 weeks and upside objective of the pyramid is $2101 upon breakout is 6 weeks. The $1912 and $1975 levels are the breakout and breakdown points of the formation. Probabilities favor the bulls due to the fact Gold is presently in an uptrend.

OIL made a new 12-week low and in the process generated a new sell signal, having closed on Friday below 40.72 and having gone below 38.72 on an intraweek basis. Oil closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 36.13 is expected to be seen this week. There is some old intraweek support at 35.26 and some recent support at 34.36 but both of those supports are minor. On a weekly closing basis, that support is found at 36.36, meaning that if oil breaks all of those supports and closes below 36.36 next Friday, the door will be wide open for a drop down to the $29.60 level. Weekly close resistance is now found at 39.55 but daily close resistance is found at 38.05 that if broken would ameliorate the probabilities of a drop down to the $30 level. For now though, the chart does suggest that weakness will be seen and that a drop down to the $30 is a decent to perhaps even high probability. The 38.05 daily close resistance level is key right now.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

Charts suggests that the market is likely to continue lower but I do not have any "new" mentions this week on putting on new shorts. Resistance levels are too far above to put on new shorts with some clear limitation of risk. By the same token, day trades to the downside will still be available and they will be mentioned in the message board as they become clear with the trading action.

Nonetheless, I do have 2 mentions this week. One is a short mention I made 2 weeks ago that finds itself higher than when the mention was made and the desired entry point might be reached this week and the other mention is an additional purchase to an already held stock (RIO).

PURCHASES

RIO Friday Closing Price - 63.94

RIO is a commodity stock company that due to the increase of inflation and the weakening of the dollar made a new 9-year weekly closing high on Friday. The stock broke above a strong double top at 62.70/62.78 (based on a weekly closing basis) that had been in place since April of last year. On a weekly closing basis, there is no resistance above until 70.80 is reached and that resistance is minor at best. Stronger weekly close resistance is found between 73.31 and 74.27 that if the breakout is confirmed this next Friday, will highly likely be targeted as the objective to be reached within a few weeks. The recent intraweek low at 59.48 is now pivotal support that if broken, would not only negate the breakout but generate new selling interest. By the same token, any weekly close below 62.70 would weaken the chart. Due to the fundamental reasons for the breakout, the probabilities of negating it are very low. The probabilities of breaking the 59.48 intraweek support are even lower. As such, this trade is a high probability trade.

As far as getting a desired entry point, using the 10-minute chart the stock is showing a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 60.87 (seen on Thursday) to the high seen on Friday at 64.33. On that intraday chart, the stock closed on the low of the last 10-minutes of trading and should open or go lower the first thing on Friday. The bottom of the flag is found at 63.66, meaning that the desired entry point into the trade is between 63.66 and Friday's close at 63.94. The bullish flag suggests that a break above 64.33 (which is likely to happen either on Monday or Tuesday) will give an immediate objective 67.79 to be reached at some point this week.

On an intraweek basis, RIO still shows resistance at 65.20 but given the breakout and the close near the high of the week, that level is likely to be broken on Monday or Tuesday at the latest and there is nothing but open air above until the $70 level is reached.

My probability rating on this trade is a high 4.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

SALES

BWA Friday Closing Price - 42.47

Sales of BWA above 43.00 and using a stop loss at 46.70 and having an objective of 32.50 will offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio. Nonetheless, probability rating on this trade with the desired entry point and stop loss point being used is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU made a new 12-week intraweek low but it was only by $.05 cents and the new low was not confirmed as the stock still closed on Friday above the pivotal weekly close support at 27.75/27.90 (closed at (28.84). The stock closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 30.07 than below last week's low at 27.26. The stock did close on the low of the day on Friday and the first course of business for the week is likely to be to the downside with an objective of 27.80-27.89. Nonetheless, that level should hold up and a rally begin immediately thereafter. Pivotal resistance is found at 30.78 that if broken would give short-term control back to the bulls. The $28 level is now a strongly established support that requires some fundamental changes to break. Probabilities favor the bulls.

AXP generated an inside week of no consequence to direction. Then again, the bulls were in control but failed to do anything this week and the bears were able to generate a red weekly close as well as a close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 102.01 than above last week's high at 105.11. The probabilities favor the bears given that the stock is now showing a successful retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 104.67, with a close at 105.67 on September 4th followed by 4 daily closes below the line every day last week. Clearly, the 105.67 level on a daily closing basis is now pivotal, meaning that a stop loss can low be placed at 105.77 (based on a daily close). A break of that resistance level would give the bulls clear short-term control of the stock. There is no close by level to the downside until 95.68 is reached that could trigger new selling interest, meaning that for the time being, the stock is in a trading range between $95 and $105 that is meaningless to the trend. By the same token, the bears remains with the edge at this time and given that the indexes seem to be heading lower, the probabilities favor the bears.

BTZI got within $.0015 cent of the all-time low at $.02 seen in December 2019. The stock did reverse to close on the high of the week, suggesting that if the stock goes above last week's high at $.028 this coming week, a double bottom will be formed. By the same token, until the stock gets above $.04, all that will have been accomplished is setting a dependable support level but nothing else. One thing that might be a positive for the stock is the wildfires that are raging in the west. The company is located Puerto Rico and does business in Florida and many of the Cannabis growers are in western states, meaning there could be a drop in supply, which in turn would help the company and others not located west. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

CAT defied the drop in the index market to make a new 23-month intraweek and weekly closing high this past week. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 155.48 is expected to be seen this week. There has not been any specific news to support the company itself but the industry is receiving news that could generate new business and with the company being #1 in the industry, the buying is evidently congregating there. The stock shows no resistance of consequence above until 157.72 (minor to decent at best) and then at 159.37 (decent). Further resistance is found between 161.60 and 164.60. On a weekly closing basis though, the resistance is decent to even perhaps strong between 155.85 and 156.36, which is a double high. With the stock closing on Friday at 153.83, further upside on a weekly closing basis is very limited as another close between 155.86 and 156.38 would make it a triple high and as such, likely to be broken. This does suggest a decent probability of a red weekly close being seen next Friday, especially if the indexes head lower as expected. The bulls need to generate another green weekly close next Friday above 148.44 to confirm this breakout and give the bulls some new ammunition to break the resistance above. A red close next Friday below 148.44 would be a strong negative that would suggest whatever high was made this past week or be made this week would be a rally high and highly unlikely to be broken the rest of the year. There are 2 very minor intraweek support levels below at 148.75 and at 145.30. If those are broken, there is no support of consequence found until $140. Considering the breakout seen this week, the stock is now unlikely to get below the $130 even if a strong correction occurs. That is where the 200-week MA is currently at (at 128.94) and there are 2 previous intraweek supports of consequence at 129.30 and at 130.21. This does suggest that the stock is likely to be in a possible trading range between $130 to a possible high at $159 for the rest of the year unless some fundamental changes of consequence occur.

CNX generated a non-eventful inside week but given that the bears had an edge the previous week and were unable to take advantage of it, suggests the edge is returning to the bulls. The stock did generate a green weekly close and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 10.97 than below last week's low at 10.04. Either way, it was a totally uneventful week that could go either way this week. By the same token, both last week's high and low are short term pivotal. A break below 10.04 would likely push the stock down to the $9 level and perhaps even down to the 200-day MA, currently at 8.72, while a break above last week's high would likely push the stock up to the next intraweek resistance at 11.66. Any break above the resistance at 12.27 would be a strong bullish statement. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

CRON generated a new 33-month low weekly close and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.07 is likely to be seen. By the same token, the stock is still showing 2 intraweek lows below at 4.00 and at 4.62, ameliorating the meaning of the news multi-month low weekly close. As long as the stock stays above the 4.62 level, no damage of consequence to the chart will have occurred. In addition, the previous 33-month low weekly close is at 5.26 and if the bulls can manage a green weekly close above that level next Friday, the break of weekly close support will not be confirmed (it will be negated). As it is, the trading action the last 5 weeks has been minimal as the stock has traded in an $.81 cent trading range from high to low and compared to the average trading range for a week of over $1 seen during the last 3 years, it does suggest that buying and selling interest is very low. Normally when trading ranges are this limited (when on a downtrend or an uptrend), it usually means the trend is like to turn to the opposite side (in this case from down to up). Pivotal resistance is at 5.70 and pivotal support at 4.62. It is unlikely either of those will be broken this week, meaning more of the same as seen the past 5 weeks, as the traders await news. It is possible the fires that have destroyed the Cannabis stocks in the west may be a positive catalyst for the stock, given they are based in Canada. As such, I would venture to say that there will likely be a bit more buying than selling interest this coming week.

ENG generated a green weekly close on Friday, making the previous week's close at .81 into a successful retest of the strongly established support at .80 that goes back 3 years. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that on an intraweek basis, the probabilities favor the stock going below last week's low at .75 than above last week's high at .98. If that occurs but the recent intraweek low at .73 is not broken, it would likely become a successful retest of the 20-week low at .73 that occurred 3 weeks ago. The stock did get up to .98 this past week and sold off from there, likely because the 200-day MA is currently at .97 and that line will always bring automatic chart selling the first time seen, unless some positive fundamental news comes out. Nonetheless, having gotten all the way up to that line does suggest the bulls are now starting to buy more than the bears are selling. Overall, the fundamental picture of the stock is a positive for the long term and when the established support level gets confirmed once again, the bulls will rush in to buy. Probabilities are now favoring the bulls with the only question likely being asked is "when will the breakouts begin to occur again?". Pivotal intraweek support is found at .73 and pivotal intraweek resistance is now at 1.01 on a daily closing basis.

MRNA stopped the recent downtrend this past week, having generated a new 15-week intraweek low but then rallying to close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 60.32 will be seen this week. The most important thing that did occur is that in spite of getting all the way down to 54.21, the stock closed at 59.31 and still above the double low weekly close support at 58.19/58.57. A green close next Friday would make Friday's close into a successful retest of that important and pivotal support level and bring in new buying interest. There is no intraweek resistance above until 63.90 is reached and then stronger at 66.98. Support is now found at 55.81 and pivotal at last week's low at 54.21. It seems likely the stock will see a trading range this coming week between 55.81 and 63.90. With the fact that Astra-Zeneca had to stop their Phase 111 trials due to a negative reaction to their vaccine, does bring some fundamental support to the stock. The large amount of competition in the vaccine area is what brought about last week's drop. That competition is now whittled down a bit and may continue to be whittled down as coming up with a vaccine is not going to be easy and the company does have a novel approach no other company is able to offer. Ultimately there is a lot of positives to the company (not only regarding the vaccine) and if this area is confirmed as a base of support, the stock is likely to move higher. The key level to watch is the 69.00 level on a weekly closing basis. A close above that level would be at least a short term bull statement. For now, it is not likely that will happen, suggesting the stock may now get into a $55-$66 trading range for the next few weeks. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

NEM had an uneventful week, having basically traded in almost the exact trading range than the previous week. The stock did close green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 68.85 than below last week's low at 63.43 but unless the bulls can get above the intraweek resistance at 69.13, nothing will have been accomplished. By the same token, the bulls have now generated and confirmed a decent and pivotal support area between 62.65 and 63.35 that is now solid support. Like Gold, the stock is showing a bullish flag and pyramid formation that if broken to the upside (a rally above 68.85) will offer an 83.25 upside objective to be reached over a period of 44 weeks. Both of these levels (62.65 and 69.13) are pivotal. Probabilities favor the bulls.

QQQ generated a second red weekly close, confirming the key negative reversal seen last week. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 266.90 is expected to be seen this week. Minor intraweek support is found at 264.63 and again at 251.23. On a weekly closing basis, some minor support is found at 255.56, which is also pivotal daily close support that if broken would likely cause the stock to fall to the previous all-time high daily close at 234.73 (234.66 on a weekly closing basis). Short term pivotal resistance is now found at 282.20 that if broken would take some of the power away from the correction. Probabilities this week suggest a $253 to $275 trading range. With the stock having closed on Friday at 270.45, more downside that upside is likely to be seen this week. Probabilities favor the bears.

RIO generated a new 9-year high weekly close and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 64.33 will be seen this week. The stock broke a strong double top at 62.70/62.78 that had been in place since April 2019, meaning that this breakout if confirmed this week with another close above 62.78 will suggest the 12-year weekly closing high at 74.27 will be tested within the next 6 months. As such, this coming week is pivotal to the bulls. Positions should be added this week and liquidated if any red daily close occurs before the 9-year daily closing high at 64.60 is broken. On an intraweek basis, stops can now be placed at 60.60. This breakout, is likely to take the stock to the $73-$74 level, meaning that positions bought at Friday's closing price at 63.94 would show a risk of $3.34 for a potential profit of $10 per share, meaning a 3-1 risk/reward ratio. Nonetheless, upon a daily close occurring above 64.60, the stop loss could be raised to 62.65, which in turn would make the risk/reward ratio as much as 7-1. This breakout is of note, especially considering that commodities are in "vogue" now. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SRUTF generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green. The close above the $.05 level negates the previous week's break of the weekly close support at .05 and puts the bulls back with the edge. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .0572 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock remains trading in a sideways trading range it has been in for the past 4 weeks and needing some new catalyst to break out of the $.035 and $.09 that was seen 6 weeks ago. Like with CRON and BTZI, the widespread fires that have decimated the Cannabis industry in that area could be of some help to the stock that is based in Canada. Resistance is presently at .072 and support is at .0447. A break of either will give the bulls or the bears a new edge. Probabilities favor the bulls.

W generated an inside week but did make a new low weekly close on Friday at 252.28, meaning the correction continues unabated. The high made last week at 296.86 and the low made 2 weeks ago at 234.65 are now short-term pivotal. A break of either will likely generate a rally to test the all-time high at 349.08 or test the previous all-time high weekly close at 169.83. With the stock having given a bear market signal last week, having dropped 23.5% from the high weekly close and that signal having been confirmed this week with an even lower weekly close, the bears are presently in control and the bulls needing some fundamental positive catalyst to prevent further downside. By the same token, this coming week is important because if the 234.65 level is not broken and the stock manages a green weekly close next Friday, some short-term buying interest is likely to be seen. There is some daily close support at 228.93 that might temporary halt the selling interest and generate a bounce up. It is also an area that on an intraweek basis shows the 100-day MA, currently at 221.44, which is a line that has been respected in the past. What this suggests is that the stock might see a drop this week down to the $222-$228 level that might cause a jump back to the $260-$263 level. Overall though, the bears remain in short term control and the probabilities favor them this week.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .839.

2) BTZI - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0263.

3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.21.

4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0529.

5) W - Averaged short at 86.61 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 252.28.

6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 153.83

7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 270.45.

8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 102.54.

9) AU - Averaged long at 25.68 (4 mentions). Stop loss at 26.48. Stock closed on Friday at 28.84.

10) NEM - Purchased at 63.57. Averaged long at 60.742 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 66.22.

11) MRNA - Averaged long at 59.54 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 59.34.

12) RIO - Purchased at 61.49. Stop loss now at 59.38. Stock closed on Friday at 63.94.

13) CNX - Averaged long at 9.10 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.56.

14) CAT - Shorted at 150.35 Covered shorts at 151.37. Loss on the trade of $102 per 100 shares plus commission.

15) AXP - Shorted at 105.02. Covered shorts at 102.59. Profit on the trade of $244 per 100 shares minus commissions.

16) W - Shorted at 296.17. Covered shorts at 265.25. Profit on the trade of $3092 per 100 shares minus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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