Issue #681
Aug 16, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


The Bulls Unable To Make A Bold Statement. Rally Feels Tired!

DOW Friday closing price - 27931
SPX Friday closing price - 3372
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 11019

The indexes continued their rally this week with another green close. Nonetheless, it was once again evident that the traders are becoming more conservative and wary of the rally as most of the buying was seen in the DOW, which appreciated 2.2% in value. The SPX appreciated only .7% and the NASDAQ barely appreciated .009%. Nonetheless, the bull sentiment continues to permeate in the indexes as they all closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week.

The rally this past week continued even though the news that did come out was not all that supportive of the market. The CPI number was the highest seen in many years at .6% and the unemployment number, though slightly better than anticipated, was still extremely high at close to 1 million people requesting unemployment benefits last week. The Retail Sales number was lower though it was not considered worse than expected because the previous month's number was revised upward. Nonetheless, there was nothing in any of these reports that would give any ammunition to the bulls to continue the rally. In addition, the Corona virus continues to rage unabated without end in sight, meaning that a recovery from the economic damages caused by the virus is not yet on the horizon. This rally has been more about momentum than actual tangible positives and the action seen this past week, suggests the momentum is waning.

The SPX continues to be the most important index at this time because it represents a bit of both of the others (the DOW and the NASDAQ) and it is the only index that is near a major and pivotal resistance area. The all-time intraweek high is 3393, the all-time daily closing high is 3386 and the all-time weekly closing high is 3380. The index got up intraweek to 3387, generated a daily close at 3380 and closed on a weekly closing basis on Friday at 3372. This means that all of these highs seen this past week are within .02% of their individual all-time highs. With the index having moved up 2.8% the previous week and .7% last week, it does suggest that something of consequence will occur this week as there is very little room to simply "trade around" without a breakout, or a successful retest of the highs occurring and profit taking occurring. As such, it has to be believed that this week will be indicative. There are no possibly catalytic economic reports due this week and Congress is adjourned for at least another 3 weeks, meaning no new stimulus will be announced this week, suggesting there is nothing to trigger action in any direction. As such, chart trading is likely to be the deciding factor and the fact that the SPX is at a major level of resistance and has been at this level now for close to 3 weeks without breaking out, does suggest the bears will win this round.

In looking at the other 2 indexes, the DOW has been the strong index the last 2 weeks but it is still 5.6% from its all-time high and does have some resistance 20 points above last week's high (at 28174) and decent resistance at the March gap area that begins at 28402 that is 248 points above last week's high, meaning that it can still go above last week's high and not accomplish anything of consequence. The NASDAQ was able to generate a new all-time high weekly close by 9 points but it did not make a new all-time intraweek high above 11126 (high last week was 11124) and the index has now traded on 7 of the last 8 trading days rallying above 11000 and 6 of those trading above 11100 but not going above 11126, suggesting that the bulls just don't have a lot of rallying strength anymore, and without news, that is not going to change. As such, all indexes now have reasons that could generate selling this coming week.

The NASDAQ now finds itself 13% above the previous high and the rally above the previous all-time high seen a year ago in July at 8338, generated a 18% rally up to 9838, meaning that just to mimic that rally, the index would now continue higher for another 556 points. Nonetheless, the reality is that the past couple of weeks, momentum has been the key (and mostly the only) reason for the indexes heading higher but that has now evidently been reduced to a minimum and with other fact that these prices seen in the indexes are no longer fully supported fundamentally for higher prices and until some hard news (like agreement in Congress for further stimulus) comes out, it is highly unlikely that further upside of any consequence will be seen during this period of time, meaning that the index is not likely to mimic what happened a year ago.

To the downside, there are clear levels of support that if broken will automatically generate new selling interest. In the DOW that level is found on a daily closing basis at the previous multi-month high at 27572. With the close on Friday at 27931, a fall and close of over 359 points would generate a negative response. In the SPX a break below 3326 (46 points below Friday's close) would bring in new chart selling interest and in the NASDAQ, a break below 10762 would do the same. That is a fall of 357 points below Friday's close.

What the chart is suggesting is that until the 2nd week of September (4 weeks away), the probabilities favor small trading ranges but with a slight bearish bias. It is doubtful that the SPX will generate a break of resistance but the support may not break until more is known about the stimulus package. If there are any surprises, they will likely be in favor of the bears, if for no other reason that the virus remains unchecked and there seems to be no relief in sight. Probabilities favor the bears this week but only for a small red move down.


GOLD generated the first correction in 10 weeks, having dropped intraweek 10% ($202) from the high made 3 weeks ago. On a weekly closing basis though, the correction has been only 3.5%. Gold closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at $1876 than above last week's high at $2050 but with the large trading range and the bounce up from the lows of $98, the probabilities favor an inside week. Gold did close on Friday in the lower half of the day's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below Friday's low at $1939 than above Friday's high at $1970 and if that occurs, it could become a successful retest of the $1876 low, which is required after such a big drop occurred without a change of fundamentals. Some support on the intraday chart has been established at $1920, meaning that could be the downside target for this week. Pivotal resistance is found on the intraday chart at $1974 that is established, meaning that if broken, the bulls will be back in control, or at least short-term control. The same can be said about the $1920/$1926 area of support, meaning that for now, Gold should trade in that $54 trading range and a break of either will stimulate further movement in that direction. Given that the Gold is still trading in a new all-time and no failure signal has been given, probabilities still favor the bulls.

OIL generated an inside week but did make a new 5+ month weekly closing high. Nonetheless, oil closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 41.23 than above last week's high at 42.94. The fact that oil did not confirm the previous week's mini failure signal suggests that the bulls still have a narrow edge. By the same token and as stated last week, the action suggests that oil will continue to trade around the $40 level until more information comes out. Intraweek resistance is found at 43.52 and intraweek support at 38.72. A break of either will generate movement in that direction. Nonetheless, neither is likely to be seen this week, meaning another uneventful week, which has now been the case for the past 8 weeks.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions this week. The reason for this is that I am already heavily short and not looking to add shorts but I did find 3 stocks that I can mention as shorts this week that offer a good risk/reward ratios as well as a decent probability ratings. Those 3 stocks are CVS, COF, and IBM. Given that I will not be putting on new short positons (other than perhaps a day trade), I am not going to give desired entry points, stop loss points and objectives in the newsletter. By the same token, if anyone is interested in a new short position, please request on the message board the details on any (or all) of these 3 stocks and I will supply them to you.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU generated the 3rd red close week in a row and once again closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 27.65 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, it is important to note that since the rally to new 7-year highs started in May of last year (15 months ago), there has not been 4 weeks in a row of red weekly closes. Given that the stock (and Gold) are still in an uptrend, the possibilities of another red weekly close next Friday are minimal. In fact, there has only been one time previously in the last 15 months that 3 red weekly closes occurred (in May of this year) and from that low, the stock moved up 41% in price over a period of 8 weeks. Another thing and more importantly, the stock this past week got down to the previous 7-year daily closing high at 27.75 with a close at 27.65 that was followed by 2 daily closes in a row above that level, meaning that the previous high on the daily chart has now been tested successfully. The stock also shows the previous weekly closing high at 27.75 and with the stock closing on Friday at 28.35, a green daily close next Friday will also serve as a successful retest of that area. It is important to note that this now confirmed daily close support level was reached on Tuesday and was unable to be broken in spite of the fact that every single day since Tuesday the stock got down close to that level with the highest low during this period of time was Friday with a low of 28.03. The stock did close near the high of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be a rally above Friday's high at 28.74. If the bulls can get above Thursday's high at 29.00, that minor but recent resistance level will be broken, meaning the bulls will have achieved a slight edge. With the stock having gapped down on Tuesday between 30.03 and 29.30, if the gap is closed, a big negative will be negated and new buying interest will likely occur. Other than on a daily closing basis, there is no support below 27.65/27.75, meaning that if broken, not only a failure signal will be given but the bulls will have lost the longer term control they have obtained over the past 15 months. There is no fundamental reason to believe that will happen. As such, probabilities favor the bulls this week.

AXP did generate follow through to the upside this past week and also generated a weekly close above the 200-week MA, currently at 99.45, having closed on Friday at 100.41. Nonetheless, the stock closed only $1.3% above the previous weekly close and it closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 99.26 will be seen this week. Another potential negative is that the stock got up close to the 200-day MA, currently at 106.47, with a rally last week to 105.70, followed by 3 daily red daily closes in a row, meaning the MA line has now been tested successfully. As such, the chart suggests that the stock is likely still in a downtrend and that positive fundamental news is required to change that. With no news scheduled and the indexes showing difficulty in heading higher, the probabilities favor the bears. What the bears need to do this week is generate a red weekly close on Friday and below the previous week's close at 99.16. If that occurs, new selling interest will be seen. At this time though, the bulls have a slight edge for this week as the burden of proof for this week is still on the shoulders of the bears. A new high this week and a daily close above 106.47 will be a strong sign in favor of the bulls. A daily close below 97.36 would be a decent failure sign in favor of the bears. The $9 trading range between those two levels is relatively meaningless until Friday where a red or green weekly close would be indicative. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

BTZI generated another green weekly close but no resistance levels were broken, meaning it was an uneventful week. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at .032 is expected to be seen. Intraweek support is found at .0248 and unless that level is broken, things will remain the same (uneventful and waiting for a catalyst). Daily and weekly close resistance is now found at .04/.042 that if broken would generate a new buy signal. Any daily or weekly confirmed close below .031 will once again put the stock in the same limbo it has been in for the past 3 months. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CAT generated a new 8-month intraweek high and weekly closing high. Nonetheless, the stock backed off from the high of the week at 146.20 to close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 135.68 than above last week's high. In spite of the new intraweek high made, the stock is in the area where decent daily and weekly close resistance around the $140 demilitarized zone is found, meaning that at this time the bulls need some fundamental help through news or the indexes heading higher to break this area. Daily close support is now found at 132.80 that if broken would generate a new sell signal. Above last week's high, there is decent to perhaps strong resistance between 148.41 and 150.55. The chart formation in place right now suggests the bears will gain back some control and that a move back down to the $120 level is likely to occur. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

CNX made a new 3+-month intraweek high and a new 20-month weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 12.27 will be seen this week. A new buy signal was given with the weekly close being above the previous high weekly close at 11.50. Nonetheless and in spite of the buy signal, the stock closed at the 200-day MA, currently at 12.00, and that means that a red or green weekly close next Friday will paint a clearer picture. Evidently, a break of the 200-week MA, which has been unbroken since January 2018, would be a positive sign. A red weekly close would suggest more base building support needs to be accomplished. The stock did generate a high daily close in April at 12.93, meaning that any daily close above that level would be indicative of the bull market returning. There is also daily close resistance at 12.05 that if a red close occurs on Monday, would give a short-term edge to the bears for the week. On the other side of the coin, a green close above that level on Monday would give the bulls the short-term edge for the week. The 10.76-10.92 level on a daily closing basis is now support that if broken would be short-term meaningful. It is an important week but neither the bulls nor the bears have a clear probability of success.

CRON generated the most uneventful week in the last 3 years, having had a $.33 cent trading range week and generating a weekly close $.01 below last week's close. As such, there is nothing new to say. Last week's comments remain the same. There is some minor support at 5.50 and a bit stronger at 5.12. Pivotal support is found at 4.62. The company statement after the earnings report was not encouraging as they see no short-term relief from the pressures the Cannabis industry is experiencing, though they did state that those pressures do not affect the company itself as much as other companies. Nonetheless, the pressures are not likely to allow the company to prosper in the short-term. In looking at the daily chart, it seems likely that the stock will fall down to the $5 demilitarized zone and stabilize there. No break of pivotal support is likely to happen but the stock will now find minor to perhaps decent resistance around 6.00, suggesting a $5-$6 trading range will be in effect for the next few weeks. Probabilities favor more of the same this week.

ENG had the same kind of week as CRON did, given that it has the smallest trading range in 8 months ($.06 cents) and a close $.01 cents below last week's close. As such, no new comments can be made, meaning last week's comments are still valid for this week. As stated last week, the stock is now showing 5 spikes up to a downtrend line that started 11 years ago and usually there are 5 spike up (followed by drops) before a true breakout occurs. With the now 5-point trend line at 1.58 and the stock having rallied to 1.55 a few weeks ago, it does suggest that after this fall ends, the next rally will be "the one" and sustainable. In spite of the drop in price after the report, no support levels were broken. The stock dropped down to the 200-day MA, currently at .99, with a drop down to .98 on Thursday of last week. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 1.04 or below last week's low at .98. Unless the support between .93 and .96 is broken, no damage to the chart will be done other than to say that further chart work will be needed for the next few weeks before the 6th attempt to break the trendline occurs. The stock did gap down between 1.21 and 1.13 and there is some established intraweek resistance at 1.20 and important and pivotal daily close resistance at 1.23. If the gap can be closed and a close above 1.23 obtained, the bulls will be back in control. Probabilities favor a trading range between .96 and 1.20 for the next few weeks.

MRNA continued the correction downward, having generated a down week and a red weekly close. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 67.00 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, the bulls need to step up this week as the stock closed on Friday just $.15 cents from the previous all-time high weekly close at 69.00 and a red close next Friday would generate a failure signal, while a green close would generate a successful retest of that previous high that likely would generate new buying interest as well as building a new (and higher than the last one) support level from which bulls could buy from with limitation of risk. It is important to note that the stock now shows decent intraweek support between 66.54 and 67.00 so that even if it does go below last week's low this week, if 66.54 does not get broken, the intraweek support will have held up. The stock did generate a green daily close on Friday and closed on the high of the day, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be to the upside. The green daily close also suggests that a previous high daily close of consequence at 66.57 was tested successfully. The chart does suggest that the correction may be over and that the bulls will get their edge back for a retest of the all-time high at 95.21. Such a retest would have an objective of getting up to the $87 level where consideration should be given to liquidate all positions other than the long term buy and hold ones. Short term resistance is found at 75.75 that if broken would show mostly open air above to $87. Probabilities favor the bulls.

NEM generated a big down week, having dropped 9% on an intraweek basis from the previous week's close. This was, of course, due to the $200 drop seen in Gold over the past two week and not with anything happening to the company itself. In May, the stock generated a 25% correction from the high made, over a period of 3 weeks and this correction has now been 14% drop over a 2 week period of time, meaning some further downside this coming week could be seen. By the same token, the bulls accomplished a major goal 2 weeks ago, having made a new all-time high and that could/should mean this correction will not be as strong as the one seen 13 weeks ago. The stock did generate a short-term sell signal at the beginning of the week but after Tuesday's low at 62.65 (low of the week), the bears were unable to push any lower, suggesting buying interest is already being seen at these levels. There is some minor support at 61.83 and then nothing until minor to decent at 59.05. That lower level of support should not be seen. The 100-day MA is currently at 60.41 and that line has not been broken to the downside since March and given that the stock made new all-time high and the fundamentals have not changed, that line now looks like decent support, if and when it is reached (not necessarily a given). There is some minor resistance at 64.65 and minor to decent at 69.13. Evidently, if 64.65 is broken, the target will be the next resistance level above. The stock gapped down from 67.51 to 64.94 and if the resistance at 64.65 is broken, closure of the gap will become a priority and a magnet for the traders. With no change of fundamentals, the probability favors the bulls, though some additional weakness could be seen early in the week.

QQQ generated a new all-time high weekly close at 272.16 and above the previous week's close at 271.47. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 274.83 is expected to be seen this week. With the all-time high being 274.98, the probabilities do favor a new all-time high being made and the uptrend continuing. The gap that was created the previous week was closed this past week, so there is no magnet to the downside that could keep the bulls from continuing higher. By the same token, the stock has now traded in this small $5 trading range (between $270 and $275) for the past 10 days and with no possibly catalytic reports scheduled, it is fundamentally difficult to stimulate any new buying and with no support of consequence nearby below, the probabilities are starting to favor the bears, if for no other reason than to build a new support level below from which new attempts at continuing the rally can occur. There is pivotal short-term intraweek support at 264.63 that if broken, would suggest the $260 level will be seen. On the weekly chart, there is some minor intraweek support at 251.31 that is the "only" support shown on the weekly chart and it is minor in nature. This does suggest if the stock starts trading below the $260 level that a correction is beginning that could ultimately take the stock back down to the previous all-time high weekly close at 234.64. Evidently, the key this week is the all-time intraweek high at 274.98 and the close by intraweek support at 264.63. A convincing break of either is likely to generate further movement in that direction. It is a toss-up this week but I believe the bears might have a very slight edge.

SRUTF generated a new 4-month weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .0657 will be seen this week. The stock has now confirmed the buy signal given the previous week when it closed above the high weekly close during this period of time at .05. Upside objective right now is a minimum run to .08/.087 where some resistance is found. The previous week's intraweek high at .09 is now pivotal resistance that if broken would like cause the stock to test the 200-day MA, currently at .10. That line has not been broken to the upside for the past 13 months or tested for the past 12 months and is now a clear upside target if the recent news about the company is as good as it is sounds (likely). Pivotal support is now found at .04. Probabilities favor the bulls.

W generated an eventful uneventful week. Let me explain, the high (324.81) and low (283.51) for the week were made on Tuesday but on a weekly closing basis, the stock only appreciated in value $.31 cents. The stock had a wide trading range of $41.30 cents but on a daily closing basis, it only traded in a $15 trading range with 2 high daily closes and 2 low daily closes over the past 7 trading days. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high but the up and down movement during the week, as well as the high and low made in one day with a $41 trading range and none of the other days being even close to that, does suggest that the buying interest is waning and with the stock highly overbought and no established support level below built until the previous all-time high weekly close at 169.83 is reached, leaves the traders looking at very small profit potential and a high risk factor. As such, the probabilities now favor the traders looking to build and establish a new support level, meaning some correction now beginning, likely as soon as this week. As it is, the stock is showing 3 gaps on this latest rally and the 3rd gap is at 267.43 and closure of that gap will become a magnet if the momentum to the upside is lost. There is absolutely no support below until 209.12 is reached and if the momentum is lost, there is no level close by where the bulls can gather to support the stock. With the earnings report now out and the stock having more than doubled in price in the last 10 weeks, a correction is now much more likely that further upside. Probabilities favor the bears.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.01.

2) BTZI - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .034.

3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.63.

4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0582.

5) W - Averaged short at 97.47 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 309.99.

6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 139.96

7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 272.16.

8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 100.41.

9) AU - Purchased at 28.67. Averaged long at 26.254 (5 mentions). Stop loss at 26.48. Stock closed on Friday at 28.35.

10) NEM - Purchased at 63.97. Averaged long at 60.80 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 63.85.

11) MRNA - Purchased at 67.83. Averaged long at 59.54 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 69.15.

12) QQQ - Day traded 3 times at different prices. End result of all those trades after commisions subtracted - Profit of $345.

13) CNX - Purchased at 8.01. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 12.00.

14) W - Purchased at 287.00, at 287.00 and at 287.00. Liquidated at 322.82. Profit on the trade of 10,746 per 100 shares (3 mentions) minus commissions.

15) CAT - Day traded 2 times at different prices. End result of all those trades after commissions subtracted - Profit of $362.

16) AXP - Purchased at 100.35, at 100.35 and at 100.35. Liquidated at 102.04. Profit on the trade of $507 per 100 shares (3 mentions) minus commission.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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