Issue #683
Aug 30, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Seasonal Correction Time Frame on Horizon!

DOW Friday closing price - 28653
SPX Friday closing price - 3508
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 11695

The indexes continued the uptrend this week with additional upside movement of 3.3% in the NASDAQ, 3.2% in the SPX and 2.6% in the DOW. The dichotomy between the indexes seen in past weeks was not evident this past week as all indexes rallied approximately the same amount, meaning that is was a market rally and not an industry rally. The indexes all closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 28733, SPX at 3509 and NAZ at 11730) is expected to be seen this week.

The news for the week applied to all indexes as it was mostly the change of approach to inflation that was the underlying factor in the rally. The Fed announced they would be keying more on unemployment than in maintaining the inflation rate at 2% or lower, meaning that no rate in hikes will occur if inflation flares up but unemployment remains high. This announcement meant that the Fed is 100% keyed on an economic recovery and not on previously stated policy of inflation control, meaning that economic support from the Fed is now expected at all times as long as unemployment stays high.

The SPX and the NASDAQ continued to expand on their new all-time highs and the DOW came one very big step forward in closing the original weekly gap from March that the other indexes had already closed. Due to the DOW still having upside objectives but also resistance levels, all attention will be keyed on that index this week. The gap in the index is up at 28892 and with the close on Friday being at 28653, it means that is only 239 above and highly likely to be reached this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 29373 and at the all-time high at 29568. Making a new all-time high in the index is highly unlikely to occur because the companies that make up the index are all industries that have been severely affected by the economic malaise that came from the pandemic and those problems have not been resolved and even if resolved, profits in those industries will continue to suffer for many months and perhaps even years. As such, more than a 3.1% rally to the all-time high is about as much as could rationally happen.

In addition and using the SPX as the guideline, just last week Piper Jaffray re-stated their upside objective for the year is 3600. With the index closing on Friday at 3503, that is only 2.7% away from Friday's close. In addition and as stated in the message board last week, the upside objective for the NASDAQ is likely to be anywhere from 12000 to 12200 based on the rally highs made in the last 2 bull runs in the index in 2012 and 2016 which resulted in rallies above the previous correction lows. Those rallies were 91.8% and 93.2%. As of Friday's close, the index has rallied 89.4% from the previous correction low (prior to the low of the pandemic) at 6190. Using those previous rallies, it would suggest the index has anywhere from a 2.4% to as much as 3.8% rally left. With all 3 indexes showing upside objectives that match, the probabilities are high that this scenario is likely to become fact. Adding to all of this, there is a clear seasonal tendency to correct starting around the middle of September, which has happened on 9 of the last 10 years. Given that this correction is likely to be a big one due to all the factors stated above, a correction of anywhere from 19.8 to 24.6% is what is likely to happen. Using the NASDAQ as the key index to measure such a correction, a drop down as low at 9320 could be seen. With the fact that the previous all-time high weekly close is at 9731, such a drop is not only possible but likely and chart-wise, previous all-time highs are generally tested at some point after the new high top is found.

The levels to watch below are the same as stated the last 2 weeks. To the downside, there are clear levels of support that if broken will automatically generate new selling interest. In the DOW that level is found on a daily closing basis at the previous multi-month high at 27572. In the SPX a break below 3326 would bring in new chart selling interest and in the NASDAQ, a break below 10762 would do the same.

It is interesting to note that the VIX volatility index has risen (closed green on a weekly closing basis) the last 2 weeks in spite of the index rally. This is suggestive that the traders are expecting volatility to increase from here on forth. The index now shows a successful and confirmed retest of the 100-week MA, currently at 21.13 with a close 4 weeks ago at 22.05, followed by 2 green weekly closes at 22.54 the following week and at 22.96 this past Friday. This is one more sign that the indexes are likely to reach a top either this coming week or the next, which is Labor Day week and the second week of September, which is normally when the seasonal corrections start.

Last but not least, this coming week the 2 most important economic reports for the month are due out. On Tuesday, the ISM (Manufacturing) index is due to come out and expected to be 54.5%. On Friday, the Jobs report comes out and is expected to be 1.2k. These reports at this stage of the game and at these high price levels are more likely to act as a negative than a positive even if they come in better than expected. On the other side of the coin, anything less than expected will likely be a negative catalyst of consequence.

To me, the only question this week is whether the traders will begin liquidating their positions before the end of the week or wait for the week after (Labor Day week) to start. I suppose some of that will depend on whether the upside objectives are reached this week or not. Either way, this scenario shown up above does suggest that this market is reaching its rally peak and a correction of consequence is about ready to start. Probabilities do support rallies at the beginning of the week. The end of the week is where the questions start.


GOLD gave both a buy signal and a failure signal against the bears on Friday, having closed above the most recent high daily close at $1952 and well as above the previous low week's close at $1947 that when broken, generated an intraweek drop down to $1874. Gold closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $1982 will be seen this week. The intraweek high for the past 7 week has been $1987 and if that gets broken, there is no resistance above until $2024. Using the weekly chart, a positive reversal week occurred, having made a new 2-week low and then closing green. A rally above last week's high at $1987 would make last week's low at $1908 into the required/necessary successful retest of the $1874 low and suggest the uptrend has resumed. On the weekly chart, there is no resistance above until the all-time high at $2078 and on this chart, the uptrend remains intact, meaning a new high would be the most probable outcome of this likely-to-be successful retest of the low. Based on the chart, the $1908 low seen last week is the new support level. ($1923 on a daily closing basis and $1947 on a weekly closing basis). Probabilities favor the bulls.

OIL generated a new 6-month high weekly close and closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 42.23 than above last week's high at 43.77. Nonetheless, the trading ranges and minimal appreciation in price based on the weekly closes, suggests that there is very limited buying interest and that it is likely more because the index market has been going higher than on any positive fundamentals in the oil industry. With the indexes likely to reach a high for the next 6-9 weeks and go into a corrective phase, Oil is likely to do the same. Oil did reach an important resistance level on Friday on the weekly closing chart, having closed at 42.97. Going back to 2012-2015, oil shows 3 low weekly closes of importance between 43.03 and 43.42, which were strong support as oil was heading up to the $75 level. Those supports are now resistance given that oil has traded below that level since February. It is highly unlikely this area will be broken on a weekly closing basis without either the indexes heading much higher or some positive fundamental changes in the oil market, which at this time are not on the horizon. As such, it is certainly possible that another green weekly close will occur next Friday but highly unlikely that is will be above the 43.03/43.42 level. On the other side of the coin, there is a good possibility that next Friday's close will be red and the beginning of a decent correction. With the indexes likely to see a correction of anywhere between 19-24% over the next 2 months, a correction of that magnitude could take oil back down to the $34 level, which is where some support is found on a weekly closing basis.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I do believe that the indexes (and many stocks) are ready to go into a corrective phase starting either this week or next, with next being the most probable. Nonetheless, I did promise to look to see if there were some trades that could be started this week. They key issue for this week was the risk/reward factor and stocks will clearly evident levels of support or resistance that could be used to take a shot at with low risk (loss of funds) potential. This is especially true this week given that further upside is expected to be seen, at least at the beginning of the week, meaning that is the chosen stocks to short do not get above their resistance levels in the first 2-3 days of the week, then they are likely to become profitable trades. As far as the long positions, here I am keying on Commodity stocks that are keyed on metals. With the Fed not likely to fight inflation as hard as before, commodity stocks are likely to be the beneficiaries of that.

I am not going to go into any explanation of the reason for the trades as right now there is no clear explanation that can be given, other than resistance or support levels being close by and offering good risk/reward ratios with very limited risk. Simply stated, losses taken if trades don't work out, will be minimal.

SALES

LVS Friday Closing Price - 52.16

Sales of LVS above 54.00 and using a stop loss at 56.35 and having a 45.00 objective, will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio. Probability rating a 4 (with 5 being the highest).

BWA Friday Closing Price - 41.43

Sales of BWA above 43.00 and using a stop loss at 46.70 and having an objective of 32.50 will offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio. Nonetheless, probability rating on this trade with the desired entry point and stop loss point being used is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5).

PURCHASES

RIO Friday Closing Price - 61.98

Purchases of RIO at Friday's closing price at 61.98 and using a stop loss at 59.65 and having an objective of $75, will offer a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. Probability rating on the trade is 3.75 to 1. If the stop loss is placed at 56.65, the probability rating becomes 4.25 (on a scale of 1-5).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU generated an inside week but an indicative one, given that the stock failed to follow through to the downside after having closed near the low of the week the previous week but more important because the green weekly close made the previous week's close at 27.90 into a successful retest of the previous multi-year high weekly close at 27.95. This means that the correction seen was not weakness but simply a retest of a previous breakout as well as building of a new support level from which the uptrend can resume. The stock closed on the high of the week and on the weekly chart there is absolutely no resistance above until the recent intraweek high at 38.50 is reached. On a weekly closing basis, resistance will be found at 34.61 as that is the 8-year high weekly close. Using the daily chart for more short-term resistance levels to watch, the first one is at 30.78. A break of that level (now likely) will open up the door for a rally to the next resistance level at 32.25 and a break of that for a run up to 33.75. Above that level, there is total open air until 38.50. Pivotal support is now found between 27.31 and 27.89. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls.

AXP generated a 12-week high weekly close and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 102.90 is expected to be seen this week. In addition, the stock closed once again above the 200-week MA, currently at 99.77, and this is the second time in the past 3 weeks that has occurred, meaning that the bulls now have a clear edge. By the same token, the most recent intraweek high seen 3 weeks ago at 105.70 was not broken and that remains a pivotal resistance level that the bulls must overcome to take control of the chart. More importantly, the 200-day MA is currently at 105.41.and that line has not been broken to the upside since June 8th and then broken only once for 1 day since February. With the DOW likely to find resistance this coming week and from which a correction is likely to begin, the stock may find the same situation with the 105.70 resistance level. It is important to note that the bulls "need" to break that level or disappointment will be the end result, which in turn would likely give the bears back the control they have had for the past 6 months. Pivotal support is now found at 95.68. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but only for a rally up to the 200-day MA.

BTZI generated an inside week with no follow through to the downside in spite of last week's close near the low of the week. The stock is presently idling. The last 2 days of the week it traded within a $.01 trading range. Traders await news before doing anything. For now, this type of action is likely to continue. On a daily closing basis, the .031 level is a short-term pivot point to the upside and the .0291 the same to the downside and that is exactly the trading range that was seen the last 2 days of the week. The .027 and the .037 are stronger pivot points that if broken would be indicative. Probabilities favor more sideways trading.

CAT generated a new 7-month weekly closing high on Friday and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 145.85 is likely to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the intraweek high seen 3 weeks ago at 146.20 was not broken and on Friday when the high for the week was made, the stock sold off $2.22 cents from the high of the day, to close just a decent weekly close resistance level from 16 months ago at 143.36 (closed on Friday at 143.63), meaning that the traders are not only paying attention to the chart but also depending on the indexes (namely the DOW) going higher. With the index likely to reach an area of resistance this week that will be difficult to break above and also because a correction is likely to start this week or the following, it is going to be difficult for the bulls to gain much further upside. Strong resistance is found up around the $150 level. Probabilities still favor the stock being in a trading range between $135 and $145 with a possibility of getting as high as $147. Nonetheless, up between $145 and $147, the stock is a decent sell option, using a stop loss at 150.65 and having a downside objective of $112. Such as trade offers a 6-1 risk/reward ratio.

CNX generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3 week low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.63 is likely to be seen this week. On Wednesday, the stock generated a daily close at 10.73, followed by 2 green daily closes in a row. This is important as in May and June the stock generated 3 high daily closes between 10.70 and 10.76. This means that the stock remains well supported and with more buying interest than sell interest. The key issue remains the 200-week MA, currently at 11.97, which was tested successfully 4 weeks ago. A break of that line, which has not been broken to the upside since November 2018, would be a bull statement. With last week's intraweek low at 10.65 now likely to become support (if the stock goes above last week's high this week), the bulls seem to be set for a breakout this week or next. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CRON generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 16-week low and then turning around to close green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5.70 will be seen this week. More importantly, the previous week's break of the 3-month weekly close support at 5.42 was negated, having closed on Friday at 5.63. In addition, there is now a double bottom on the weekly closing chart at 5.26 and 5.31 that if confirmed this week with another green weekly close, will give the bulls' new ammunition. The intraweek support at 5.12 that I mentioned last week was not broken as the low for the week was 5.22. What all of this means is that a support base of consequence has been built that is not likely to get broken without some new fundamental negative coming out. By the same token, the action seen does not yet support the upside for anything else that further sideways trading that has been in effect now for the past 6 months. The top of the sideways trading range based on weekly closes is around the 6.70 level. It is likely a rally back up to that level will now be seen. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

ENG generated a totally uneventful inside week with a weekly close exactly the same as the previous week (at .83). As such, there is no new comment this week. Here is the comment from last week. There is quite a bit of established intraweek support between .73 and .75 that should stop the down move. On a weekly closing basis, support is decent between .76 and .80. Any green weekly close at this time would suggest the worst of the correction is over. By the same token, the fundamental picture does not suggest the stock will be heading any lower than .73, meaning that either this week or at the latest the following week, that the bulls will be back in buying. As stated last week, the stock is now showing 5 spikes up to a downtrend line that started 11 years ago and usually there are 5 spike up (followed by drops) before a true breakout occurs. With the now 5-point trend line at 1.58 and the stock having rallied to 1.55 a few weeks ago, it does suggest that after this fall ends, the next rally will be "the one" and sustainable. In spite of the drop in price after the report, no long term support levels were broken. After a few weeks of retesting support and building new confidence, the stock should resume the uptrend. Probabilities for this week are 50-50 but for the week after, they at 80-20 in favor of the bulls.

MRNA generated a positive reversal week, having made a new -7-week low but then going above the previous week's high and closing green. The stock closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 71.64 than below last week's low at 62.88. I did state last week that the stock was likely to drop to test the 100-day MA, currently at 63.11, and that is now a done thing. That line has been a constant support line since October of last year and once again it has been tested successfully with last week's low at 62.88. The stock closed on the low of the day on Friday and the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the downside, suggesting a retest of last week's low will occur. Support is found around 65.00 and a new purchase of the stock around that level, using a stop loss at 62.68 and having an upside objective of $87, would offer a risk/reward ratio of 12-1. Stock continues to receive good fundamental news and it is highly unlikely that anything negative will happen until the results of the Phase 111 clinical trials come out and then only if they are negative. Those are not likely to come out for another 2-3 months. If there was anything possibly not-as-positive as the bulls would have liked is that the failure signal against the bulls remains in place as the previous all-time high at 69.00 was not broken even though the stock traded as high as 71.64 this past week. This does suggest that the bulls are still not back in control, not even short term. This likely means another week of the stock trading around the $69-$70 level. Nonetheless, with now a clear established support level at 62.88, the probabilities now favor the bulls.

NEM generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low but then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 67.09 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's low at 63.26 will become a successful retest of the most recent low at 62.65 and that would mean a new support level of importance has been built (previous one was at 54.76). This will give the bulls a new level of support from which to launch another resumption of the uptrend where limitation of risk is clear. Intraweek resistance of some consequence is found at 69.13. It is likely that level will be reached this week or next. What happens there will be at least short-term pivotal. A break of that resistance is likely to mean a new all-time high will be made. Probabilities favor the bulls.

QQQ generated another new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 293.85 will be seen this week. The runaway freight train pattern that is being seen (no valleys) does suggest the index will continue higher until it no longer does or a negative catalyst occurs, which presently is not expected. Intraweek support is presently found at 264.63 that if broken would be a sign of a top having been found. That is not likely to occur this week. By the same token, the NASDAQ is likely to reach a potential upside objective based on past action this week or news with about an additional 2.4-3.8% rally potential, suggesting the $300 level is likely to be the top to this rally. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SRUTF generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low and then going above the previous week's high and closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .0722 will be seen this week. The action being seen does show an increase in volume which suggests an increase in buying interest. A weekly close below .05 is needed for that to change. Upside objective right now is a minimum run to .08/.087 where some resistance is found. The high seen 3 weeks ago at .09 is now pivotal resistance that if broken would like cause the stock to test the 200-day MA, currently at .10. The 200-day MA is currently a .0927 and that line has not been seen and much less broken for the past 14 months. At this time though, it does suggest that a retest of that line will occur sometime over the next few weeks. Pivotal support is now found at .04. Probabilities favor the bears this week but still within a mini short-term breakout scenario.

W generated a key negative reversal, having made a new all-time intraweek high but then going below the previous week's close and closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 310.45 will be seen. For the stock to have had this kind of negative reversal on a week when the indexes continues higher, suggests that the stock has found a top to this rally and is now in a corrective phase. There is no support below until 283.51 is reached. Probabilities are high that level (or close to it) will be seen. There is an open gap between 267.43 and 272.10 that will be a target for testing if the 283.51 support level is broken. Closure of the gap would be a strong short-term negative as it is considered to be a runaway gap in a breakaway/runaway gap formation. The $324-$326 level is now resistance. Probabilities strongly favor the bears this week for further downside, if not all the way down to the $283.51 level.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .83.

2) BTZI - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0299.

3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.63.

4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0585.

5) W - Averaged short at 97.47 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 310.94.

6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 143.63

7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 292.53.

8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 102.54.

9) AU - Averaged long at 25.68 (4 mentions). Stop loss at 26.48. Stock closed on Friday at 30.01.

10) NEM - Averaged long at 60.0125 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 66.71.

11) MRNA - Averaged long at 59.54 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 67.49.

12) QQQ - Day traded 2 times at different prices. End result of all those trades after commisions added - Profit of $307.

13) CNX - Purchased at 8.01. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 11.30.

14) CAT - Shorted at 144.71 Covered shorts at 140.14. Profit on the trade of $457 per 100 shares minus commission.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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