Issue #686
Sep 20, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Correction Continues!

DOW Friday closing price - 27657
SPX Friday closing price - 3319
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 10793

All indexes generated a red weekly close and closed near the low of the week, keeping the correction continuing forward and suggesting further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 27487, SPX at 3292, and NAZ at 10639) will be seen this week. In addition, the SPX and the NASDAQ went above last week's highs, meaning that a negative reversal occurred as well as a technical supposed retest of the all-time highs.

There are no economic reports of consequence scheduled for this week until Friday's Durable Goods report and even that report is not catalytic, meaning that without fundamental news it will be a chart/technical week. As such and with the fact that there is no support levels of any consequence below, the bears could be in full control all week. In the DOW there is some minor support at 28447 and again at 27325 and then absolutely nothing until 26428. In addition, if 27325 is broken, the 200-day MA, currently at 26298 will become a magnet. In the SPX there is no support below until 3200-3214 is reached. In addition, there is a gap at 3272 that is likely to be targeted for closure early in the week as there is no reason for it to say open now. If the 3200 level is broken, the 200-day MA, currently at 3103, will be targeted. In the NASDAQ, there is no support below until 10217/10182 is reached. If that level is broken, there is nothing below except the previous all-time high weekly close at 9731. With no support of consequence below where the bulls can mount a chart defense in unison, all indexes could have a big down week where a 5% correction could be seen.

With nothing the bulls can muster in the way of reasons to rally or chart support from which they can defend a bounce, this coming week is likely to be all bear. By the same token and with fact that the traders have been inured to buy all dips, attempts to rally are still likely to be seen. If those occur, ;ast weeks highs are chart resistance levels that if broken, could give the bulls some ammunition. Those are found at: DOW at 28364, in the SPX at 3428 and in the NAZ at 11244.

There is one thing to watch for this week that is of some consequence and likely to occur on Monday, if it is to occur. Both the SPX and the NASDAQ generated a gap on the daily chart (SPX at 3384-3375 and NAZ at 11046-10977). If another gap down occurs on Monday, the bears will climb aboard in a big way given that a breakaway/runaway gap formation will be generated, and the bulls will be weaponless to stop them if the gaps are not immediately closed. By the same token, if no gaps occur on Monday, those gaps will be targeted for closure during the week. This is likely to be the key for the week the first couple of days of the week. The indexes did rally enough on Friday from the lows of the day that gaps on Monday are unlikely to be seen but this scenario needed to mentioned just in case.

This is now the 3rd week of the correction and the SPX has corrected 8.3% and the NASDAQ has corrected 11.9%. It is estimated the SPX will end up correcting 17-20% and the NASDAQ between 20-24.5% so this means the correction is only halfway there and that another 3-5 more weeks of sell pressure are to be seen before the correction meets its downside goals. Evidently this coming week continues to be important, especially because there are no potentially positive news catalysts scheduled to come out.

Probabilities favor the bears this week.


GOLD generated a green weekly close and closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at $1983 than below last week's low at $1938. It also needs to be mentioned that Gold had the smallest trading range ($45) seen in the past 9 weeks and small trading ranges have been associated with rallies given that since February, any trading ranges less than $57 have resulted with further upside and a green close the following week. On a weekly closing basis, the close on Friday negated the previous week's sell signal, having closed on Friday above $1947 (previous low weekly close). By the same token, the bulls were unable to close above the previous high weekly close at $1974, meaning that the bears have lost their recent edge but the bulls have not yet gained the edge back. The Triangle and bull flag formation continues to be in place but each week it has shrunk to the point that sometime either this week or at the very latest the following week, a breakout of breakdown is likely to occur. A daily close above $1972 would signal a breakout and a daily close above $1980 would confirm it. A daily close below $1950 would signal a breakdown and a close below $1934 would confirm it. This does suggest that the triangle/flag formation is now in a $22 trading daily close range and that means a high probability of one or the other happening this week. Based on the fact Gold is still in the all-time high area (above the previous all-time high weekly close from 2011 at $1874), the probabilities favor the bulls.

OIL did not follow through to the downside this past week (as was expected) and turned around to generate a 10% rally and a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 41.49 will be seen this week. The reason for the rally was the hurricane that swept through the Gulf States this past week that interrupted production and that caused a drop in the weekly supply numbers. Nonetheless and in spite of the news, the bulls did not accomplish anything of consequence on the chart given that the daily and weekly closes that occurred were only up to (but not above) established chart resistance levels (daily chart at 41.26 and weekly chart at 41.29 - Closed at 41.11 on Friday). Oil is expected to rally above last week's high (41.49) this week but there is intraweek resistance at 41.63 and stronger at 42.40. With the hurricane now over and no big damage having occurred, the probabilities once again favor the bears this week, at least on a closing basis. Intraweek support is found between 38.54 and 38.72 that if broken would give the bears the edge back. Probabilities favor the bears this week.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

Charts suggests that the market is likely to continue lower but I do not have any mentions this week on putting on new shorts. Resistance levels are too far above to put on new shorts with some clear limitation of risk. By the same token, day trades to the downside will still be available and they will be mentioned in the message board as they become clear with the trading action.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU made a new 12-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 27.06 will be seen this week. I could not find a fundamental reason for the drop. The company did announce the reopening of a new mine on Wednesday that will produce an additional 100,000 ounces of gold per year but that should have been a positive for the company, not a negative. The only other possible reason for the drop and break on Friday was option trading due to quadruple witching day. If that is the case, the stock should open higher on Monday and not look back. One thing the chart does show is a breakaway/runaway gap formation between 24.65-25.01 (breakaway) and between 26.48-26.75 (runaway), which should not be closed given the fact that Gold remains in a bull pattern and on new all-time highs. Evidently, if the runaway gap gets closed, the breakaway gap will be targeted. There is no intraweek support below until the 200-day MA is reached, currently at 24.34). One additional possibility for the reason for the break was a triple low on the daily closing chart at 27.65, 27.90 and 27.90 that might have been targeted to breakage on a volatile day such as a quadruple witching day, once again meaning that it should be reversed on Monday with a daily close above 27.90. The stock did gap down on Thursday between 29.33 and 28.26 which does suggest the news of the reopening of the mine might be the reason for the drop in price as that is when the news came out. If the stock does reverse direction on Monday, that gap will be a target for closure. Resistance above is found at 30.74. Due to my uncertainty as to the positive or negative meaning of the news, I am unable to give a probability assessment for this week.

AXP generated a potential spike high retest of the recent 15-week intraweek high at 109.06, having rallied up to 108.12 and then turning down to close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 103.31 will be seen this week. If that does occur, a necessary/required retest of that high will have occurred, suggesting the stock will be heading lower and in the same correction mode as the DOW. Another negative is that the stock closed on Friday below the 200-day MA, currently at 104.34 and if the recent intraweek low at 102.01 is broken, confirmation will be given of the break to the downside of that important line. If that occurs, the immediate objective would be a drop down to the 200-week MA, currently at 100.30. Nonetheless, on an intraweek basis, there is no support below 102.01 until the $96-$97 level is reached. As far as pivotal resistance is concerned, last week's high at 108.12 is now "it". Probabilities favor the bears.

BTZI had an uneventful week in which neither the bulls nor the bears gave any signs of anything. The stock did generate a negative reversal, having made a new 3-week high but then closing red, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .025 but the .0248 to .025 is decent support and unlikely to be broken. To the upside, short-term pivotal resistance is found at .028/.029. Probabilities continue to favor sideways trading within that range. A break above or below would be short-term indicative.

CAT generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 23-month intraweek high but then closing red. Nonetheless, the stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting an equal chance of going above last week's high at 156.25 than below last week's low at 148.36. The last time a negative reversal occurred was 15 weeks ago and the following week the stock reversed back to the upside. Nonetheless, the red weekly close does suggest that the decent to perhaps strong weekly close resistance at 155.85/156.36 has now been tested successfully and the last time that occurred, a drop down to the $145 level was seen. With the indexes likely heading lower, that now becomes a probability as well. It does need to be mentioned that on the daily closing chart, a double top has now been formed at 153.83/153.85 and if the recent low daily close at 148.60 is broken, that double top will be confirmed as such and on the daily closing chart, there is no support of consequence below until the $140 level is reached. Evidently, a daily close above 153.87 would now be a statement of some bullish consequence. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

CNX generated a new 4-week intraweek high as well as a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.66 will be seen this week. The 200-week MA, currently at 11.91 beckons and likely will be reached this week. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 12.27 that if broken would suggest a retest of the 22-month high at 14.19 that was made in April will occur. In addition, a close above the MA for the second time will increase the chances that the stock has ended the long term downtrend and that a bull trend has begun. The $10 demilitarized zone has now become strong support but with this rally up to 11.66, the $11 demilitarized zone has become minor to perhaps decent support. The key this week is whether 12.27 is broken or not. If not, a drop back down to the $11 level is likely to occur. If broken, a rally back to the $14 level will likely ensue. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

CRON did not follow through to the downside (as was expected to do) and did generate a rally above the previous week's high as well as a green weekly close. Nonetheless, the stock remains in a very narrow trading range with trading interest on either side being very low. That has been the case for the past 6 weeks and until either the lower part of the $5 demilitarized zone (below 4.70) is broken or the stock generated a weekly close above 6.30, this scenario is likely to continue. As such, I have no new comment this week as that outlook (trading within that range) is likely to continue this coming week.

ENG generated an uneventful inside week but did manage to generate another green weekly close, suggesting the bulls presently have a small edge. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at .89 than below last week's low at .80. Pivotal intraweek support is found at .73 and pivotal intraweek resistance is now at 1.01 on a daily closing basis. The .91 cent level is pivotal short-term resistance. Probabilities once again faor the bulls this week.

MRNA generated a strong 15% recovery rally above last week's close and also generated a failure signal against the bears on Friday, having closed above the previous all-time high weekly close seen in May at 69.00 (closed on Friday at 69.87). The failure signal will wipe out all the weakness seen the past 6 weeks, if and when another close above 69.00 occurs next Friday. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 70.90 is expected to be seen this week. There is pivotal resistance at 71.64 that if broken, would open the door for a rally back up to the $87 level. There was no specific news to have caused this rally to occur, suggesting that all the possible negative news that has come out the past 6 weeks has now been discarded and the positives of the company and the high probability of the company developing a successful vaccine is now at the top of the list of reasons to buy. Evidently, this week is chart important due to the failure signal having been given. Pivotal intraweek support is now found at 64.89. If broken, the failure signal will likely be negated. By the same token, if 71.64 gets broken, the failure signal is likely to be confirmed. Last but not least, the daily chart is showing a bullish flag formation that if broken (a rally above last week's high at 70.90) would offer an 81.31. Probabilities favor the bulls.

NEM had an inside week but did close red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 64.54 will be see this week. Intraweek support remains at 63.35 and pivotal at 62.87. Resistance is 68.85 and at 69.81. The stock has been trading in this range for the past 6 weeks and until Gold either breaks out or breaks down, the same scenario is likely to continue. By the same token and as announced in the Gold evaluation, there is a good probability one or the other will occur this week and the stock will follow. Probabilities favor the bulls.

QQQ made a new 7-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 262.63 will be seen this week. There is no support below until 251.32 is reached. On a weekly closing basis, some minor support is found at 255.56, which is also pivotal daily close support that if broken would likely cause the stock to fall to the previous all-time high daily close at 234.73 (234.66 on a weekly closing basis). Short term pivotal resistance remains at 282.20 that if broken would take some of the power away from the correction. Some resistance will now be found at 269.79. Probabilities this week suggest a $253 to $269 trading range. Probabilities favor the bears.

RIO generated a new 9-year intraweek and weekly closing high but did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 63.83 will be seen this week. The previous 9-year high weekly close is at 62.79 and as long as the stock does not close below that level on a weekly closing basis, the breakout will remain in effect. It is possible that level will be tested this week, especially considering that the previous 9-year high daily close was at 64.60 and the stock closed on Friday at 64.42, giving a failure signal on that chart, that of course needs to be confirmed before it becomes more important. Probabilities favor the bulls after this breakout gets confirmed. Both the chart and fundamental outlook supports the bull position.

SRUTF, like with all other Cannabis held stocks, remains in a sideways trading range with very little outlook for a breakout or breakdown at this point. The stock remains trading in a sideways trading range it has been in for the past 5 weeks and needing some new catalyst to break out of the $.035 and $.09 that has been seen for the past 6 weeks. Resistance is presently at .072 and support is at .0447. A break of either will give the bulls or the bears a new edge. Probabilities favor the bulls.

W generated a second inside week but on this occasion, a green weekly close occurred and on closure on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 293.97 will be seen this week. If that occurs, it will likely be seen as a needed/required retest of the all-time intraweek high at 249.09. On a daily closing basis, resistance is found between 296.56 and 298.00 that is unlikely to be broken unless the fundamentals change for the positive or the indexes rally, both unlikely to happen. The 268.96 now seems to be short-term pivotal support. Probabilities favor at $297-$268 trading range this week. Any red weekly close next Friday would be seen as a negative and continuation of the correction.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .86.

2) BTZI - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0260.

3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.29.

4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0505.

5) W - Averaged short at 86.61 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 290.09.

6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 152.39

7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 266.87.

8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 103.44.

9) AU - Averaged long at 25.68 (4 mentions). Stop loss at 26.48. Stock closed on Friday at 27.11.

10) NEM - Averaged long at 60.742 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 64.71.

11) MRNA - Averaged long at 59.54 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 69.87.

12) RIO - Purchased at 64.20. Averaged long at 62.845 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 59.38. Stock closed on Friday at 64.42.

13) CNX - Averaged long at 9.10 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 11.37.

14) QQQ - Day traded 4 times (3 times short and 1 time long). Profits on the trades $2408 per 100 shares minus commissions.

15) AXP - Shorted at 107.91. Covered shorts at 106.35. Profit on the trade of $156 per 100 shares minus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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