Issue #688
Oct 4, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Probabilities Favor Resumption of the Correction!

DOW Friday closing price - 27682
SPX Friday closing price - 3348
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 11075

All indexes generated green weekly closes on Friday but they were all either in the lower half of the week's trading range or near the low of the week, suggesting that not only further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 27338, SPX at 3323, NAZ at 11019) will be seen this week but that the probabilities now favor last week's highs being the required/needed successful retest of the recent highs. If that does occur, not only does it mean it is likely the downtrend will resume and that the recent lows broken but it also opens the door for the recent all-time highs in the SPX and NASDAQ being a top to the 10-year rally and a downtrend now being in effect.

All eyes were on the SPX this past week given that it was the only one with a clear resistance level above and an important one, given that the resistance above was the previous all-time high (from February), and from which a failure signal was given (none of the other indexes had that chart scenario). The previous all-time intraweek high was at 3393 (3380 on a weekly closing basis). The bulls were able to slightly puncture above that intraweek high with a high this past week at 3397 (4 points above the previous high) but the close was at 3348, meaning that the mini breakout was not confirmed. In addition and with the close in the lower half of the week's trading range, if the index gets below last week's low at 3323 and then generates a red weekly close next Friday (below 3348), the retest will have been successful and new selling interest will occur.

This past week was also an important fundamental week as the Consumer Confidence number, 3rd estimate of GDP, the ISM Index and Jobs reports came out. All were slightly better than expected except the ISM Index that came in slightly lower than anticipated. By the same token, none of the reports were a big positive or negative surprise and as such, they did not impact the market in any decisive way.

One thing that still remains in limbo but may be decided this weekend is the new stimulus program. The Democrats offered at $2.2 trillion package and the Republicans are offering no more than $1.6 trillion. The possibilities of an agreement was one of the reasons the bulls were able to have some success this past week. The difference between the 2 packages is now reduced as the Democrats were originally offering a $3 trillion package. With Trump coming down with the virus this weekend, it may be the catalyst that gets the Republicans to agree to a higher cost package as the economic ills of the nation are now more tangible than before, meaning that this is a potential positive catalyst for this coming week. By the same token, the difference is now smaller and an agreement may not generate as much gain as is needed to overcome the chart negatives in place.

Once again, the SPX remains the index to watch. To the upside, the 3393/3397 level on an intraweek basis remains pivotal resistance. On a daily closing basis, if the index closes above 3400, it will open the door wide for an attempt at the all-time high at 3588 and perhaps even resumption of the uptrend and new highs. To the downside, there is no pivotal support until 3209 is reached. By the same token, all indexes are showing a gap up from last Monday that remains absolutely pivotal. In the DOW that gap is between 27239 and 27338, in the SPX that gap is between 3302 and 3327 and in the NASDAQ 10939 and 11021. These gaps remain highly indicative, especially if another gap to the upside occurs and a breakaway/runaway gap is built. Then again, the gaps are magnets and likely to be closed on Monday given the weekly closes on Friday, unless an agreement occurs on the stimulus program. If the gaps are closed and the stimulus is agreed to and the resistance levels above are not broken, the traders are highly likely to turn bearish for the month as this correction has a lot more to go to match up to the downside objectives given, based on the seasonal tendency and the 2 previous correction amounts seen in the past 9 years.

As such, at this time the probabilities favor the bears and the correction resuming but the stimulus program remains a potential positive catalyst for the bulls. Other than the stimulus, there is no reason to believe the bulls have any ammunition for further upside, at least not until the beginning of November.


GOLD generated an inside week but did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $1923 will be seen this week. The green weekly close does put a potential lid on the downside, especially considering that Gold got down to the previous all-time high weekly close from 2011 at $1848 with a drop down to $1951 on Friday of the previous week and again on Tuesday of last week, suggesting the retest that level is successful and that the uptrend is likely to resume. By the same token, the bulls needed to generate a daily close above $1923 to give the bulls some new ammunition and they were not able to accomplish that, meaning that the traders are still unsure that the correction is over and will wait to see what happens this week in the index market. Any daily close above $1923 would now be a positive, while any daily close below $1866 a short term negative. Probabilities do favor the bulls.

OIL generated a new sell signal on the weekly chart, having closed on Friday below the most recent low weekly close at 37.33. Oil did close on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 36.63 is expected to be seen this week. Oil does have some intraweek support at 36.13 but if that is broken, there is no support below until 34.36 is reached. Additional but old support (from 2008), is found at 33.87. There is no resistance above of consequence until the $40 demilitarized zone. There is some resistance on the 60-minute chart at 37.80 that is likely to be short-term pivotal. Nonetheless, the way oil traded last week and the sell signal given on the weekly chart, probabilities favor the bears and a drop down to the mid 34's.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions this week but that is mostly because my portfolio is full and putting on new positions would require liquidating others presently held. Nonetheless, this is a good week to put on trades in Gold and commodity-based stocks (such as AU, CNX, NEM, and RIO). Check out the comments below on those held stocks for desired entry points and stop loss points.

Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018: Profit of $1,637 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2019: Profit of $13,051per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted

Status of account for 2020, as of 8/1

Loss of $43,350 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for September per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

QQQ (short) $2120 (6 trades)
AXP (short) $372 (2 trades)
FNV (long) $497 (2 trade)
W (short) $3078
CAT (short) $167

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

NONE

Total Profit for September, per 100 shares and after commissions $6234

Closed out losing trades for September per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

CAT (short) $127 (2 trades)
FNV (long) $213 (2 trades)

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

NONE

Total Loss for August, per 100 shares, including commissions $340

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 9/30

ORCL (short) $66

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

MRNA (long) $1758
W (short) $1110
QQQ (short) $3398
AXP (short) $402
BTZI (long) $8

Total $6762

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 9/30

RIO (long) $381
CNS (long) $65
AU (long) $157
NEM (long) $12

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

CNX (long) $152
RIO (long) $84
CAT (short) $2052
AU (long) $1252
NEM (long) $1532
CRON (long) $224 SRUTF (long) $20

Total $5931

Status of trades for month of September per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtracted.

Profit of $6725

Status of account/portfolio for 2020, as of 9/30

Loss of $36,625

per 100 shares.



Updates on Held Stocks

AU generated a green weekly close, suggesting the previous week's low at 24.35 is now a spike low bottom to the correction. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal opportunity of going above last week's high at 26.72 than below last week's low at 25.56. The stock is still showing an open gap between 27.06 and last week's high at 26.72 that is a magnet for closure as there was no news to support the gap staying open. The stock did get down to the 200-day MA the previous week, currently at 24.65, and with 7 daily closes above that line since then, the retest is deemed successful and not likely to be broken without some negative fundamental news. Nonetheless, the stock did close near the low of the day on Friday and likely to get below Friday's low at 25.75 on Monday, If that occurs and then the stock rallies, it will be deemed a successful retest of the successful retest of the line and will give the bulls new ammunition. Last week's high is the existing short-term resistance that if broken and the gap at 27.01 closed, a rally back up to the $30 would then likely ensue. The gap at 27.01 is quite important right now because there is a breakaway/runaway gap formation presently being on the daily chart and closure of the runaway gap at 27.01 would make the breakaway gap at 29.41 into a magnet. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

AXP generated a green weekly close and a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 103.14 will be seen this week. The bulls were able to close above the 200-week MA, currently at 100.56, meaning that the previous week's break of the line and failure signal against the bears was not confirmed. Nonetheless, the rally did not accomplish much of anything and the rally was probably more about closing the gap at 103.31 than about anything else. Going above last week's high this week will close the gap. On a negative note, the stock remains below the 200-day MA, currently at 103.18, and that has been the case for the past 11 days, suggesting that some positive fundamental news needs to occur to have that line broken. Intraweek resistance of some consequence is found at 105.70 that is unlikely to be broken without help. There is an open gap to the downside between 96.86 and 97.23 that is likely to be targeted if the bulls are unable to get above resistance. Probabilities favor the stock trading higher at the beginning of the week and closing the gap but then it favors the bears.

BTZI got some good fundamental news this past week in the form of one of the original Shark Tank members agreeing to help market the company. On the news, the stock jumped up 56% in value and in the process, made a new 9-week intraweek high. At the end of the week though, the gain turned out to be 23.6% and only a new 6-week high weekly close. The stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at .023 than above last week's high at .0405 but the fact is that this was a positive fundamental change, meaning that further downside is not likely to be seen. The stock did close on the high of the day and likely will move above Friday's high at .03 on Monday. Minor resistance is found at .035 and pivotal at .040. Support is once again decent at .0248.

CAT negated the failure given the previous week, having once again closed above the previous multi-month high weekly close at 148.44 (closed at 149.94), leaving the door open for further upside if the indexes can move higher. The stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 151.25 will be seen this week. On a potential positive note for the bears, the stock has gone above the previous week's high, meaning that any failure to make a new high will be seen as a successful retest of the recent high at 156.25 and if that occurs, it will give the bears new and stronger ammunition. The objective of this rally is closure of the gap at 152.06 that occurred 10 days ago and given it was not based on news, there is no reason for the gap to stay unclosed. By the same token, there is absolutely no resistance above until 154.80, meaning that if the gap is closed and the bulls are not able to move higher up to that resistance, it will be a sign of weakness. Pivotal support is found at 142.73 but if the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 148.59, is broken and confirmed, the bears will get an edge. Probabilities slightly favor the bears for a red close next Friday.

CNX generated a10.5% drop in price from the previous Friday's close and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 9.03 will be seen this week. There was no negative news regarding the company but some selling interest occurred due to the drop in energy prices. It is important to note that on a weekly closing basis, the 9.37 level has been somewhat pivotal over the past 16 months and the stock did close below that level on Friday, though not in a convincing way as it was only by $.07 cents. This does suggest that the bulls need to generate a green close next week or see further sell pressure come in. On another front, it was not surprising to see this recent correction as just 3 weeks ago the stock tested the 200-week MA, currently at 11.83, for the 3rd time in a row and normally 3 times "is the charm", with the 4th attempt being the successful one. On another decent to perhaps strong positive note, the stock dropped down to within $.05 cents of the 200-day MA, currently at 8.98. With the stock likely to go below last week's low this week, a drop down to that level is highly likely and with no negative fundamental change having occurred, the probabilities strongly favor a successful retest of that line and a new attempt at the 200-week MA. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 9.90 and on a daily closing basis, at 10.14. A close above that level would give the edge back to the bulls. To the downside, pivotal support is found at 8.00. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis, any confirmed close below the 200-day MA, would be seen as a negative. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

CRON continued lower, having made another new 24-month weekly closing low and once again closing in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.92 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the reality is that the trading (and interest) in the stock is at the lowest it has been in over 3 years, given that for the past 9 weeks the stock has been seen trading ranges less than $.55 cents and the overall trading range during this period of time has been less than $1, meaning that even though the bears are in control, there is very limited interest in shorting or even trading the stock at this time. The stock sill shows 2 previous intraweek lows at 4.00 and at 4.62 that have not been broken. In addition, the $5 demilitarized zone (down to 4.70) is considered a decent psychological support. There has not been any additional negative news on the company so the sell pressure is mainly due to the industry and not due to the company itself. Short term pivotal resistance is found at 5.59 that if broken, would suggest the downside is over. Pivotal support is found at 4.62 as that was the intraweek spike low made in May. It is unlikely at this time that support will be broken, suggesting this week could be a turn-around week with the stock going below 4.92 but then closing green next Friday.

ENG did not follow through to the downside after last week's break of weekly close support and close near the low of the week, and ended up having a green week, negating the weekly close break of the .76 level (closed on Friday at .83). Nonetheless, the stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at .77 than above last week's high at .91. If that occurs but no new low below the previous week's low at .69 is made and then the stock turns around to close green, a successful retest of the low will have occurred. At these prices and based on the fundamentals of the company, there is very little ammunition that the bears have to generate further downside. In my opinion, the stock is heading higher with the only question is "when?". Some intraweek resistance is now found at .91 and stronger and more pivotal at .98. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

MRNA was all over the place this past week with a high at 75.37 and a low at 67.25, which was seen on Friday on a negative reversal day. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below 67.25 is expected to be seen this week. The close on Friday was below the previous all-time high weekly close at 69.00 (closed at 68.81) and if confirmed next Friday with another close below 69.00 it will weaken the chart. Nonetheless and on a chart basis, the weakness was not totally unexpected as the stock got up to a minor but evident intraweek resistance at 75.75 and given the bulls were unable to punch through, selling interest appeared. There was no news or change of fundamentals and overall the future looks positive but every company that is working on a vaccine for the virus is showing volatility and chart trading and the probabilities are high that this is what happened to the stock. Intraweek support is found at 66.54 that is likely to be seen and pivotal at 63.64. The bull flag that was in place was negated, meaning the probabilities favor sideways trading this week, likely between 66.54 and 71.64. Probabilities favor no one this week.

NEM generated an inside week but a green weekly close, both of which suggest the worse of the correction is over. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 61.31 than above last week's high at 64.10. If that occurs but the recent low at 59.28 is not broken, and then a green close occurs or the stock goes above this coming week's high the following week, a successful retest of that low will have occurred, suggesting the correction is over and that a new leg in the uptrend is beginning. There is a bull magnet on the chart as there is an open gap at 64.54 that has no reason to stay unclosed. As such, the probabilities continue to favor the bulls even though there is likely to be some red seen this week. There is some minor intraweek support at 60.86 that could be the downside target this week. Pivotal resistance is found at 64.10. The 200 10-minute MA is currently at 62.85 and if the bulls can establish themselves above that line any day this week, the probabilities will shift in their favor. As it is, probabilities favor the bulls this week.

ORCL generated an inside red close week after having generated a positive reversal the previous week and a green weekly close. The red close also means that a double top now exists on the weekly closing chart at 59.81/59.80, which does suggest the bears are now in short-term control that will only be ceded if some positive fundamental news occurs or the indexes resume the uptrend. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 58.51 is likely to be seen. There is pivotal intraweek support at 58.29 that if broken opens the door for a drop all the way down to the next intraweek support at 54.87. In addition, there is an open gap between 55.79 and 55.86 that is likely to become a magnet if 58.29 is broken. Intraweek resistance is found at 60.84, at 61.86, and at the all-time high at 62.60. With the chart scenario favoring the bears, if the stock does get below last week's low but 58.29 is not broken, the stock is likely to rally up to at least 61.86, meaning a stop loss at 60.94 should now be used. Probabilities favor the bears.

QQQ generated a second green close week but the stock fell 3.1% from the high of the week to close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 271.67 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's high at 282.88 will become a spike high successful retest of the all-time high and a sign that the correction continues. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 260.11 that if broken would suggest a retest of the previous all-time weekly closing high at 234.64 will be the next downside target. Short term pivotal resistance is now found at last week's high at 282.88 that if broken would offer "open air" to the all-time high at 303.50. Probabilities favor the bears.

RIO generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 11-week low but then turning around to close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 61.10 will be seen this week. The stock is showing a gap between 63.83 and 62.43 that should at least be tested if not closed. The reason for the gap was the aborigine tribe complaint about the company looking to destroy 124 heritage sites. I am not a fundamentalist and therefore I cannot personally ascertain whether that is a valid reason for the gap or not, but my simple evaluation of that event is that it is not a valid reason for the gap, meaning the gap is likely to be targeted for closure. Any weekly close above 62.78 would invalidate the failure signal and give the bulls ammunition to restart (continue) the uptrend. The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday, having made the new 11-week low on Friday and then rallying to close green and near the high of the week. As such, any rally on Monday above Friday's high at 61.01 would make Friday's low at 59.24 into a pivotal area of support that if broken would bring new selling interest. This means that if the stock does get above 61.01 on Monday, a stop loss can be placed at 59.14. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SRUTF made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing low on Friday and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .0295 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the new low was only by $.005 cents and that means that if no follow through to the downside is seen this week and the stock manages to rally above last week's high at .047, that a double bottom will have been built. The company is in better shape fundamentally than it was 3 months ago and it is basically the overall lack of interest in the Cannabis industry that is keeping the stock at these levels. Trading interest remains as historically low levels, meaning there is little interest at this time in trading the stock. Nonetheless, this week is important because if further downside is seen, especially on a weekly closing basis, then it suggests that only an overall turnaround in the Cannabis industry would help the stocks. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

W continued the recovery rally with another green weekly close (3rd in a row). Nonetheless, the stock fell back at the end of the week to close exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting its short-term fate is dependent on what the NASDAQ and the Tech stocks do this week. If the stock goes below last week's low at 286.61, last week's high at 324.41 will become a successful retest of the all-time high at 349.05 and the correction will likely resume and the recent low at 234.65 targeted and likely broken. By the same token, any new high this week would suggest the all-time high will be tested and likely broken. As such, and with the close exactly on the middle of the trading range, this coming week becomes pivotally important. It does need to be mentioned that the stock did reach a previous minor to decent intraweek resistance at 324.81 with last week's high at 324.21 and that suggests that the recovery rally high to test the all-time high has been reached and that the correction will resume. Probabilities favor the bears.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .83.

2) BTZI - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .03.

3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.03.

4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .035.

5) W - Averaged short at 86.61 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 305.36.

6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 149.94

7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 274.31.

8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 101.61.

9) AU - Averaged long at 25.68 (4 mentions). Stop loss at 26.48. Stock closed on Friday at 26.01.

10) NEM - Averaged long at 60.742 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 62.29.

11) MRNA - Averaged long at 59.54 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 68.81.

12) RIO - Averaged long at 62.845 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 60.49.

13) CNX - Averaged long at 9.10 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.30.

14) ORCL - Shorted at 60.36. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 58.83.

15) QQQ - Shorted at 282.04. Covered short at 281.51. Profit on the trade of $53 per 100 shares minus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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