Issue #696
Nov 29, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Holiday Week Gives Bulls Ammunition. Will the Breakout be Confirmed this Week?

DOW Friday closing price - 29910
SPX Friday closing price - 3644
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 12204

The bulls were successful this week, having made new all-time weekly closing highs in all 3 indexes. The DOW and the NASDAQ also made new all-time intraweek highs but the SPX failed to do the same, having gotten to within 1 point of its all-time intraweek high at 3645. All indexes closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 30116, SPX at 3644 and NAZ at 12236). Last week though, was a shortened holiday week in which momentum always has an edge if no negative news comes out and as such, the bulls had easy going. Nonetheless, if the momentum is not supported by the fundamentals, that often changes the week after. As such, this is the week that the bulls have to prove that it was not just momentum but fundamentally sound that these new highs are actually supported by fact.

The DOW is the index all eyes will be upon this week given its chart picture and the fact that it was the lagging index all year and recently has become the leading index due to the fact that is where the still-to-be-found bargains and low prices can be found. Chart-wise, Monday is extremely important as the index gapped up on the weekly chart 4 weeks ago between 28495 and 28902 and if that breakaway gap is followed by a runaway gap on Monday (only day that a gap can be made on the weekly chart), it will confirm the bullish action and cause new buying to come in strongly, especially considering that the 30,000 level is such a pivotal psychological resistance and a break above it in a runaway gap format will mean much higher prices are to occur. By the same token, the index closed below the 30,000 demilitarized zone on Friday (closed at 29910) and would need to show a higher opening on Monday of at least 207 points to open the door for a runaway gap to occur. Without that runaway gap occurring, it will be very difficult for the bulls to keep the momentum going, especially considering the overbought condition, the normal end of the year slowness of trading, and the still highly economically negatives of the pandemic. It is this index, in conjunction with higher highs above last week's highs (especially in the SPX above 3645) that is likely to decide the fate of the indexes not only for next week but until the new administration takes over.

This coming week the 2 most important reports for the month are due to come out. On Tuesday the ISM index is due to come out and it is expected to be 58% (versus last month's 59.3% and on Friday, the Jobs report is scheduled and it is expected to be 650k (versus last month 638k). If both of those reports are better than expected (unlikely), it will give the bull's additional ammunition, if and when the chart picture is also in agreement.

If none of this (everything mentioned above) occurs and the indexes open below last week's highs on Monday, the probabilities will favor strong profit taking occurring and the gap in the weekly chart in the DOW at 28495 will beckon and that would mean at least a 5.6% correction is to occur by January 20th 2021.

As far as the downside, if the bulls fail to gap up the DOW on Monday, the following are the support and pivot point levels to watch. In the DOW at 29231 and at 28902 (pivotal). In the SPX at 3543 and at 3511 (pivotal) and in the NASDAQ at 11760 and at 11424 (pivotal). To the upside, there is no resistance above if new all-time intraweek highs are made this week.

That is it for the chart outlook for the index market this week. It is all likely to be decided on Monday even though the fundamental reports on Tuesday and Friday are important. Nonetheless, at this time it is not expected that the economic reports will be much out of line and therefore not pivotal or catalytical. Those reports are not likely to uncover any big changes to the economy at this time. The indexes are moving on momentum and it is the charts that will either support further momentum to the upside or not (stop the momentum). I have to give a slight edge to the bears as the fundamentals don't readily support higher prices. Then again, all this year it has been more about momentum and speculation for the future than at any time in recent history and such a pattern is difficult to break.


GOLD took another big step down this past week, having dropped another $90 (4.9%) in price. Gold closed $3 above the previous 8-year high weekly close at $1778 and from which when broken (from having been in place for 9 weeks), generated the rally to the new all-time high at $2089. A retest of that level became a high probability when oil closed below the previous all-time high weekly close from 9-years ago at $1847. It is evident that what happened 9 years ago and the price levels involved at that time are not as important as the recent action seen the past 14 months. What this drop suggests is that the traders are using the recent charts and not the old charts. As such, this level has now become pivotal given that a failure signal of the previous and most recent high weekly close at $1778 will be indicative that the uptrend is over or if it holds up (green weekly close next Friday) that the retest was successful and that at least a retest of the recent all time high will occur, or perhaps a resumption of the uptrend. Gold has now dropped 15.2% from its all-time high and this is certainly within the bounds of a strong correction but not necessarily of a trend change (20% drop is a trend change). Gold closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at $1770 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, it does need to be mentioned that AU, FNV and NEM (all Gold stocks) closed green on Friday in spite of Gold closing $23 lower than Thursday and this is suggestive that the move down in Gold was more chart oriented than it was fundamentally indicative and if that is the case, no further downside should be seen on a weekly closing basis. It would make Friday's close at $1781 into a successful retest of the previous breakout weekly closing high level at $1778. As such, and like with the index market, this coming week is pivotal. I do want to mention that the Dollar made a new 31-month weekly closing low on Friday and a weak dollar does support Gold rallying. As such, I would say the probabilities favor the bulls this week.

OIL generated a new 9-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 46.23 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the weekly close was at 45.53 and that level is pivotal on a weekly closing basis as 45.56 was the low weekly close made in December 2018 that stood up to 40 months and when broken caused Oil to drop to the low weekly close at 16.48. Evidently it is a pivotal level because a weekly close next Friday above 45.56 (by at least 10 points) will generate a failure signal against the bears that would erase all the weakness seen the past 9 months. A red weekly close next Friday would be a successful retest that important and pivotal resistance level and cause Oil to drop back down to at least the $40 level, which has been a pivotal support/resistance level of late. By the same token and on an intraweek basis, there is absolutely no intraweek resistance until 48.75 is reached (minor in nature) and as such and with the close near the highs of the week, it is expected that Oil will head higher at the beginning of the week and then see selling toward the end of the week if things have not cleared up fundamentally before then. This is an important week for the indexes as well, with the ISM Index report on Tuesday and the Jobs report on Friday and the pivotal nature of the breakouts seen in the indexes this past week that need to be confirmed this week to go forward. I believe the probabilities actually favor the bears slightly for a red weekly close next Friday but the probabilities do favor some upside movement toward the $48-$50 at the beginning of the week.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions at this time due to the pivotal nature of this week where direction for the rest of the year is up at stake. Nonetheless, I do want to point out that a purchase of AU can be considered with a stop loss at 19.65 and a purchase of CRON can also be considered using a stop loss at 7.47. Both of these mentions would be adding positions to existing ones.

If direction is decided on Monday, as explained above, then I will give mentions on the message board.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU generated another red weekly close (the 3rd in a row and 6th out of the last 7 weeks) but did get down to the 100-week MA, currently at 20.52, a level that has not been broken on a weekly closing basis for the last 2 years. The stock did get down to 20.15 but then bounced up to close above the line (closed at 21.41) and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 21.83 will be seen this week. More importantly, the stock generated a green close day on Friday at a time that Gold itself closed $23 lower, suggesting that the traders in the stock do not believe the stock or Gold are heading lower. Intraweek and daily close resistance is found at 22.82, which if broken would show open air above until the 200-day MA, currently at 25.44, is reached. Evidently, if the stock breaks last week's low at 20.15, it would be a decent negative. Probabilities favor the bulls.

AXP generated a new 9-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 121.69 will be seen this week. Minor resistance is found at 122.43 and then nothing until decent resistance at 129.34 is reached. It is important to note though, that the bulls had trouble making the new intraweek high as it was made on Tuesday and then closed at 120.39, followed by a close on Wednesday at 129.39 and then on Friday at 120.59. Like with the index market, this week is pivotal as the holiday week is over. Any daily close below 118.67 will give a failure signal and any daily close below 112.58, a sell signal. Any daily close below 109.73 would be a tangible negative sign for the recent uptrend. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

BTZI generated a green weekly close, making last week's close at .0395 into a successful retest of the breakout weekly close level at .04. As such, the traders are now likely to dedicate a bit more efforts toward taking the stock higher. Intraweek resistance is found at .05 and short term pivotal at .055. Midterm pivotal weekly close resistance is found at .066 that if broken would signal the bulls are back in control. On an intraweek basis, the pivotal resistance is found at .088. The .05 level has been important and pivotal since June 2019 on over 6 occasions, meaning that if the bulls can establish themselves above .05, the downtrend will be officially over. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CAT generated a new intraweek and weekly closing high last week but then fell back to close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 172.78 than above last week's high at 178.32. Like with the indexes, this week is pivotal for either keeping the uptrend moving higher or giving a failure signal and correcting down. The pivotal level to watch on a daily closing basis is 169.13 (on a weekly closing basis it is 170.40). Any daily close below that level would not only generate a failure signal but a sell signal as well. The stock has generated 4 green weekly closes in a row and since 12 months ago, 5 green weekly closes in a row has not occurred and over the past 3 years 5 green weekly closes in a row has only occurred once. As such, the probabilities favor a red weekly close this week. Resistance is found at last week's high at 178.32 that if broken would give the bulls new ammunition at a pivotal time. Probabilities favor the bears.

CNX generated an uneventful inside week but did close green and near the high of the week, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 10.00 than below last week's low at 9.31. The most important thing that did occur is that the green weekly close did mean that last week's close at 9.36 is now one more successful retest of the 9.37 weekly close level that has been pivotal on 2 previous occasions over the past 52 weeks. It does suggest the bulls have the edge at this time. Short term pivotal daily close resistance is found at 9.99 (on a weekly closing basis at 9.92) that if broken would offer open air above until the 10.74-11.00 level. Overall, the stock seems to be in a trading range between 9.30 and 11.70 that is likely to continue until such a time that some catalytical event to the stock occurs. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

CRON generated a new 10-month weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.56 will be seen this week. If the bulls can get the stock above the 9.00 intraweek high seen in January and generate a weekly close above 8.55 (closed on Friday at 8.39), the last 10 months of the downtrend will be erased and the bulls will gain short term control. In addition, if the stock gets above the 9.00 level, the top of a bullish flag formation will be broken that offers a 10.20 upside objective, which by the way is where there is previous and existing resistance with a previous high at 10.39 as well as the 100-week MA, currently at 10.13. On the daily chart, the stock now shows a breakaway and runaway gap formation that has been tested successfully and gives the bulls the edge this week. The chart suggests the stock will take off to the upside this week with the $10 demilitarized zone as the objective. Purchases can be made using a stop loss at 7.47 (closure of the runaway gap). Probabilities strongly favor the bulls this week.

ENG appreciated 389% in value (from the previous weeks close to last week's intraweek high) and in the process, the stock broke the 11-year 5-point trend line in an impressive way, causing a strong amount of short-covering to occur. In addition, 2 previous intraweek highs at 3.10 and at 4.23 were broken. This break to the upside is confirmation that the downtrend is over. Nonetheless, the bulls failed to make a bull-trend-has-started statement, having closed in the lower half of the week's trading range and below the previous spike high weekly close from January 2017 at 2.88. The 11-year downtrend line is presently at 1.44 and it is likely that at some point over the next few weeks (if not this week) that the breakout line will be tested. Nonetheless, with this breakout, the 2.03 level on a weekly closing basis has now become support, meaning that weekly closes below that level are not likely to occur anymore. Evidently there are still a lot of shorts out there and based on the chart, the likely upside objective for the midterm (next 1-3 months) is the 6.45 level, which was the high made in 2010. This suggests that volatility will now be the norm for the next few weeks. Using the intraday chart, support is found at 2.05 and resistance at 2.70. A break above 2.70 would open the door for some type of retest of last week's high at 4.32. Probabilities do not favor either side this week as the trading is likely to be some new base building among rallies to determine new resistance levels. Certainly, the 3.10 high seen in 2017 will be a resistance level for now.

MRNA took off to the upside with a bang this past week, having appreciated an additional 23% in value from the previous week's close to last week's close. The stock closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 130.06 will be seen this week. The stock has doubled in price over the past 5 weeks based on the Corona Virus vaccine they have produced and being the #1 company prepared for delivery of the virus. The stock did gap up this week between 109.29 and 114.86 and this gap is now important as it needs to be followed by another gap (runaway) or it will be targeted for closure as soon as the buying interest dries up. For this week, new all-time highs are still expected to be made. Nonetheless, even for buy and hold positions, consideration should be given to liquidating the positions at the first sign of weakness, unless of course, the stock gaps up again on Monday. Probabilities favor the bulls.

NEM generated a new 5-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 56.55 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, on Friday the stock generated a green day in spite of Gold dropping $23 in value and that strongly suggests that the downside is now very limited or no further downside is to be seen. The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday, having gone below Wednesday 's low and then closing above Wednesday's high and on the high of the day, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 58.62 will be seen on Monday. The stock broke the 200-day MA, currently at 59.83, on Monday and a retest of that line is likely to occur at the beginning of the week. In the last 18-months, the line had only been broken once and for one day. It has now been broken for 3 days but if the bulls can close above the line for 2 days in row, the sell pressure will abate. On a daily closing basis, the 60.22 level is important and pivotal. A close above that level for 2 days in a row will give the bulls the edge back. There is some minor intraweek support at 55.75 that should not be broken or it will give the bears additional ammunition. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

QQQ generated a new all-time weekly high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 300.17 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and unlike the NASDAQ, the stock did not make a new all-time intraweek or daily closing high, having fallen short of the all-time intraweek high at 303.50 by 3.17 and fallen short of the all-time daily closing high at 302.78 by 3.77. If the bulls fail to break those this week, it will be seen as a failure. It also needs to be mentioned that the stock did gap up on Friday between 296.94 and 297.90, which is considered to be the replacement to the runaway gap that occurred on November 5th but that was subsequently closed. If the stock does not close the gap and gets above 303.50 (all-time intraweek high), it is likely to continue higher. If the stock closes the gap and then generates a daily close below 294.52, it will be seen as a failure and new selling will be seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but the key word is "slightly".

RIO made a new 9+-year intraweek and weekly closing high this past week. The stock closed exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chance of going above last week's high at 67.90 as going below last week's low at 64.23. The area where the stock closed (66.06) does have some minor to perhaps decent resistance from 9 years ago that is not likely to be important but if a red weekly close occurs on Friday it could have some meaning. Nonetheless, there is open air above until the $73-$74 level, meaning that if the stock gets above 67.90, it will likely continue higher to the $70+ level. The area below to keep a close eye on is the previous 9-year daily closing high at 65.43. If a confirmed daily close (2 days in a row) below that level occurs, a failure signal will be given. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SRUTF generated another uneventful week (4th in a row), having closed at .039 on Friday. The last 4 weeks, the low weekly close has been .036 and the high weekly close has been .04, meaning there seems to be no interest at this time from neither the bulls nor the bears. There is intraweek support at .03 and pivotal at .025 and resistance is found at .049, at .0659 and long term pivotal at .080. For the past 31 weeks, with the exception of 2 weeks, the stock has been mainly stagnant in price. Nonetheless, the stock is in the Marijuana industry and if CRON generates a breakout this week (as the probabilities suggest), it could give the bulls some new ammunition to take the stock higher.

W generated a second green weekly close in a row and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 268.96 will be seen this week. In addition, the bulls were able to generate a failure signal against the bears on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday above the 2 previous low weekly closes at 248.03 and 252.48, suggesting the bulls now have their edge back. By the same token and like with the index market, this past week was a holiday week and all weekly closes with new highs or failure signals against the bears, need to be taken with a grain of salt and do need to be confirmed this week with both follow through on an intraweek basis as well as on a weekly closing basis. The daily closing level to watch this week is 241.73. A daily close below that level will deflate the balloon that was created this past week and give the bears the edge back. As far as daily close resistance above, a daily close above 265..85 will open the door for a rally up to at least the $282 level. Probabilities do favor the bulls but like with the indexes, this is a pivotal week.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.33

2) BTZI - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0445.

3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.47.

4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .039.

5) W - Averaged short at 86.61 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 260.68.

6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 175.08

7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 299.01.

8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 120.59.

9) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.41.

10) NEM - Averaged long at 60.742 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 58.48.

11) MRNA - Purchased at 49.11. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 127.03.

12) RIO - Averaged long at 62.845 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 66.05.

13) CNX - Averaged long at 9.10 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.82.

14) NIO - Shorted at 51.60. Covered shorts at 54.39. Loss on the trade of $279 per 100 shares plus commissions.

15) MRNA - Day traded short 2 times. Profit on the trades of $344 per 100 shares minus commissions.

16) CAT - Day Traded short twice. Profit on the trades of $49 per 100 shares minus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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