Issue #690
Oct 18, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Decisive Week Ahead?

DOW Friday closing price - 28606
SPX Friday closing price - 3483
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 11671

All indexes generated a green weekly close this week but the closes were by minimal amounts (less than .01%). Based on the weekly closes, it was a very uneventful week but the action was far from uneventful given that the SPX and NASDAQ both traded above the all-time high during every day of the week except on Thursday and on Friday, the NASDAQ (key index) traded above the all-time high every minute of the day except for the final 10 minute of the day. The same occurred with the DOW inasmuch as the index has pivotal weekly close resistance at 28653 and it too, was above that level most of the week and most of Friday, only to fall below that level on the close. This means that though the bulls have control and momentum at this time, they still require additional fundamental help to get over this major hump.

The timing to that fundamental help is important as we are now into the earnings quarter (normally good for the bulls) and that can be a positive, if and when the reports continue to be better than expected. By the same token, almost all earnings reports this past week came in better than expected and it was not sufficient to help the bulls over the hump. The stimulus program, which has been an anticipated positive, now seems to be destined not to be passed until the election is over even though there is still a small possibility of that scenario changing. In addition, the election is now only 2 weeks away and Biden continues to lead in an impressive way and a Biden win is not likely to be seen as a positive to the market. Simply stated, the bulls have 1 to as much as 2 weeks to accomplish new all-time highs and a break of resistance and then not only break those levels but confirm them as well. The task is getting more difficult as time erodes the decision period in which this must occur.

Normally the DOW would be will be the index to watch this week as HAL, IBM, PG, TRV, VZ, T, INTC, and HON are due out this week. Nonetheless, it will be the NASDAQ that will be garnering the most attention as NFLX, TSLA and AMZN report this week (NFLX on Tuesday PM and AMZN on Thursday PM). As such, by Friday there will be a lot more fundamental information available and the traders could (and likely will) start making some decisions by then.

From a chart point of view and on a weekly closing basis, there is very little (if any) room to the upside for any more green without a breakout occurring. To the downside and on an indicative basis, any red weekly close would be a negative of consequence. With the DOW having pivotal resistance above only 47 points away, the SPX only 25 points away from a new all-time high weekly close and the NASDAQ only 24 points above from its all-time high weekly close, it is almost impossible to think this coming week will not be important, if not pivotal. By the same token, either a green close above resistance or a red close would need to be confirmed the following week.

I personally cannot visualize the bulls being successful given the resumption/increase of virus infections, the lack of Stimulus, and the now high probabilities of a Democratic win in the election. Nonetheless, for much of the rally seen the last 6 months I have been basically on the wrong side, so my own personal outlook does not have a high probability of occurring.

By the way and as far as the Stimulus package is concerned, Pelosi stated today that Monday is the deadline for a stimulus package being passed before the election. As such, Tuesday could be an indicative day.


GOLD same chart scenario as outlined last week (see below): Gold has now generated a 4.4% rally ($85) from the previous week's low at $1851, and in the process gave a failure signal against the bears, having closed above the low daily close at $1923 that caused Gold top drop all the way down to that level and generate a successful retest of the previous all-time high weekly close from 2011 at $1848. Gold closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $1936 will be seen this week. The stock also closed slightly above the previous low weekly close at $1934, meaning that another green weekly close next Friday will also generate a failure signal on the weekly chart. Pivotal daily close resistance is found at $1970 and on a weekly closing basis at $1972, meaning that a close above both of those levels this week will generate a new buy signal and resumption of the uptrend. As such, both of those levels are likely objectives to be reached this week. The $1877 level ($1890 on a daily closing basis) is now pivotal support that if broken would negate all the gains made this past week. On an intraweek basis, this week's objective is likely to be $1975 and to the downside, $1908. Probabilities favor the bulls.

OIL same chart scenario as outlined last week (see below): Oil has been trading sideways for the past 4 weeks between 36.63 and 41.49 without the bulls or the bears able to generate any clear direction. Oil closed near the high of the week on Friday, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 41.48 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, on two of the last 4 weeks, Oil closed either on the high or the low of the week but follow through was not seen the following week, suggesting just as much chance of that occurring again as that of follow through to the upside being seen. One daily closing level that needs to be watched this week is 41.11/41.19. There is a double high at that level that if broken would open the door for a rally at least up to 41.96. To the downside, the level to watch is 39.29, also on a daily closing basis, as a break of that level would suggest a drop down to the 36.76/37.05 level would be seen (also all on a daily closing basis). Probabilities favor more of the same as seen the past 4 weeks without and mini breakout or breakdown, until such a time the index traders make up their mind on what to do.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

AU Friday Closing Price -26.65

Purchases of AU around the 26.00 level and using either a sensitive stop loss at 24.25 or a more secure stop loss at 23.65 and having at least a 37.50 objective (and likely higher), will offer at least a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My probability rating is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Same chart scenario as last week (see below) with only the asterisked stocks getting a new evaluation:

AU generated a new buy signal on the weekly chart, having closed on Friday above the most recent high weekly close at 26.46. Nonetheless, it was not a totally convincing buy signals as the stock closed at 27.94 and there is a previous high weekly of consequence at 27.75, as well as 3 previous low weekly closes (all of consequence) at 27.65, at 27.90 and at 27.90. As such, the bulls are in a must-generate another green weekly close this coming Friday to confirm the correction is over and that the uptrend is resuming. By the same token, there are several additional bullish chart signs that definitely favor the bulls. The first one is that an island formation has been built, with the stock gapping down on 9/21 from 27.06 to 26.52 and gapping up on Friday between 26.65 and 27.33. In addition, the stock is showing a breakaway/runaway gap formation, having gapped up on Thursday between 25.84 to 26.01 and then again on Friday between 26.65 and 27.33. With two bullish formations in place, if the formations are confirmed (a rally above 30.60), it will be a "super" bullish sign. The stock still has a downside gap above between 28.26 and 29.33 that is likely targeted for closure this week. Of that occurs, ehter is no resistance until the $30 level is reached. Evidently, a close of the gap below at 26.65 would mean the gap at 26.01 would be targeted and that would defuse the bullishness of these two formation, meaning at 26.65 is a level that should no longer be seen to the downside. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls.

AXP generated a spike up green weekly close and a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 107.21 will be seen this week. In addition, the stock also closed above the 200-week MA, currently at 100.72, giving the bulls additional strength. The stock did close above a resistance level of some consequence on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday above 105.67. Nonetheless and using the intraweek chart, nothing of indicative consequence has yet been accomplished as the previous intraweek high at 108.12 was not broken. The chart formation presently in place is a triangle that is more bullish than bearish but is open to both sides in making a statement of consequence. A break above 109.03 would generate a bullish breakout, whereas a break below 93.71, a bearish breakdown. With the stock near the upper level and expected to go above last week's high this week, the chart favors the bulls. As such, any break above 108.12 this week will make the odds swing even further in the bull's corner while a drop below last week's low at 101.32 would shift the odds toward the bears. It is evidently a pivotal week.

*BTZI generatead a breakout, having made a new 8-month weekly closing high with a close above .04. The stock closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .049. Weekly close resistance is found at .0479 and then nothing of consequence until .066. There is daily close resistance at .042, meaning that Monday's close (red or green) will be short-term indicative. Daily close support is now found at .037. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

*CAT generated a strong week up and a close above all resistance levels with the exception of the all-time high weekly close at 170.41 (closed at 168.75). The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 170.51 is expected to be seen this week. Like with the index market, the bulls are committed to making a new all-time high or generating a major top of consequence and a likely beginning to a bear market. Everything that applies to the indexes, applies here. Any red weekly close would be a negative.

CNX did not follow through to the downside (as expected) and did generate a reversal of short-term trend rally, having generated a 15.3% rally from the previous week's close to last week's high. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 10.97 is expected to be seen this week. Another positive that occurred is than on both the daily and weekly closing chart, the stock closed above the previous low daily close at 10.14 and above the previous low weekly close at 10.53, meaning that a failure signal against the bears was given. All of this also coming from a successful retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 9.01, seen the previous week. The correction is now over and another attempt at breaking the 200-week MA, currently at 11.79, is expected to happen now. Any weekly close above 12.00 would be a breakout of consequence and open the door wide for a rally up to the $15 level. Weekly close support of importance is now found at 9.78 but the daily chart now suggests the 10.14 level (on a daily closing basis) is unlikely to be broken any more. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CRON generated a 20% rally this past week and in the process, did generate a new buy signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday above the 2-month high weekly close at 5.67. One of the reasons for the rally was a statement from Harris at the Harris/Pence debate that Biden would legalize Marijuana if he won the election. The stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.06 will be seen this week. There is no resistance above until 6.64 is reached and that resistance is minor. The stock did generate a negative reversal day on Friday, given that it got up to the 200-day MA, currently at 6.18, and evidently the bulls don't yet have enough tangible ammunition to break that important line. As such, it is expected that a drop back down to around the 5.40 level will be seen this week. If that level of support holds up, a new attempt to break the MA line is likely to occur. There is a triple top on the daily closing chart at 7.02/7.08/7.08 that is a magnet if the MA line is broken and given that it is multiple high, it is likely to be broken. As such and after some early-in-the-week weakness, the probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG generated a big rally this past week, having moved up 37.6% from the previous low weekly close to last week's intraweek high. The stock did give a failure signal against the bears, having closed above .98 on the daily closing chart and above .92 on the weekly closing chart. Nonetheless, the bulls came up short on Friday when the stock closed at 1.10, which was $.01 below a decent weekly close resistance level "and" the 200-week MA, both at 1.11. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 1.33 than below last week's low at .80, though in reality and without any change in the fundamental picture, the probabilities actually favor an inside week. The levels to watch this week on a daily closing basis, are the 1.22 level to the upside and the 1.00 level to the downside. A close above or below either of those levels will tilt the probabilities to that side. Probabilities do favor the bulls given that the chart is fulfilled both to the upside and downside and a breakout from the 11-year downtrend now seems the most likely given the fundamentals of the company.

MRNA has now confirmed the failure signal against the bears, having closed on 2 of the last 3 weeks above the previous all-time high weekly close at 69.0. The stock made a new 9-week weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 73.92 will be seen this week. There is some intraweek resistance at 75.39 and again at 75.75 but above those levels there is no resistance until 83.85 is reached. Decent and not likely broken-at-this-time resistance is found at 87.00. Intraweek support is now pivotal at 67.25. On a fundamental basis, the company has now finished its recruitment of patients for Phase 111 of its clinical trials and is already seeking FDA approval of the vaccine. On rating company lowered its upside target to $93 but another rating company raised theirs to $136. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls this week.

NEM generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low but then closing green and on the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 63.95 will be seen this week. If that does occur, then last week's low at 60.77 will become the required/needed retest of the recent low at 59.28, suggesting the correction is over. The stock is still showing an open gap on the weekly chart between 64.34 and 64.54 that is likely to be target for closure this week. If that occurs (likely), there is no resistance above until the 68.55-68.95 level is reached. By the same token, there is a triple top at that area, meaning it is likely to be broken, suggesting that if all of that upside occurs, the target would be a rally up to 69.13 would occur. Last week's low at 60.77 is now pivotal support. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls.

ORCL made a new all-time weekly closing high on Friday, breaking above the double top that had been built on the weekly closing chart at 59.80. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 61.38 is expected to be seen this week. The stock still has intraweek resistance as the all-time intraweek high is at 62.20, which was the reason I did not cover the shorts last week. Nonetheless the chart picture is bullish as the stock is showing a bullish flag formation that if 62.60 is broken, offers an upside objective of 66.12. There is intraweek resistance at 61.86 that is the target for this week. Thereafter, it will all depend on what the index market does. Pivotal support is found at 58.29 that if broken, the bull flag will disappear and a failure signal likely given as well. Probabilities favor the bulls but it does depend on what the index market does.

QQQ made a new 5-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 285.79 will be seen this week. There is no resistance above until the all-time high weekly close at 292.53 is reached (303.50 on a daily closing basis). The bulls are committed to making a new high or face the probabilities of a successful retest of the all-time highs and beginning of a downtrend. As such, any red weekly close at this time would be a negative. On a daily closing basis, any daily close below 282.25 would generate a failure signal on the breakout seen this past week and if confirmed, would suggest the rally is over. Probabilities favor the bulls.

RIO generated a rally and a green weekly close, as well as a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 63.14 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls failed to close above the previous 9-year weekly closing high at 62.78, meaning that the bulls have not yet fully reestablished the uptrend. The bulls did work into the gap above, having moved up above the low of the gap area at 62.43 with a high at 63.14 this past week. Nonetheless, the gap is at 63.83 and more needs to be done this week to close the gap. I do believe that will occur but then there is also intraweek resistance at 65.20 that needs to be broken before the bulls gains all the confidence back. Intraweek support will now be found again at 60.18 and pivotal at 59.24 that if broken, would suggest a drop down to the 200-day MA, currently at 54.81. Probabilities do favor the bulls though.

*SRUTF rallied 34% this past week from low weekly close to high weekly close. A failure signal against the bulls was generated, having closed above the previous all-time low weekly close at .038. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at .0466 is expected to be seen this week. Decent weekly close resistance is found at .0498 and pivotal at .058. Daily close support is now found at .036. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

W generated an inside week but a red weekly close and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 291.81 will be seen this week. The red close means that the previous week's close at 305.36 is now a successful retest of the all-time weekly closing high at 340.66 and that suggests the uptrend is over. This signal is even more convincing given that the indexes not only moved up but broke out and yet the stock moved in the opposite direction. Minor intraweek support is found at 286.61 and again at 272.89. Both supports are short-term pivotal. Resistance is found at 313.03 and pivotal at 324.21. It is important to note that the supports mentioned above are on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, there is no support below until 234.65 and given that a successful retest of the high has now been given, generally that would mean that the recent low will be broken. Below 234.65, there is no support until the previous all-time weekly closing high at 169.83 is reached. Probabilities favor the bears and perhaps strongly, especially if the index fail to make new highs.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .924.

2) BTZI - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .04.2.

3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.43.

4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .043.

5) W - Averaged short at 86.61 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 297.08.

6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 168.75

7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 288.51.

8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 104.91.

9) AU - Averaged long at 25.68 (4 mentions). Stop loss at 26.48. Stock closed on Friday at 26.65.

10) NEM - Averaged long at 60.742 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 62.67.

11) MRNA - Averaged long at 59.54 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 73.94.

12) RIO - Averaged long at 62.845 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 60.05.

13) CNX - Averaged long at 9.10 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.13.

14) ORCL - Shorted at 60.36. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 60.29.

15) QQQ - Day traded short 2 times. Total profit of $132 per 100 shares minus commissions.

16) CAT - Day traded short 1 times. Total loss of $13 per 100 shares plus commissions.

17) FNX - Day traded long 1 time. Total profit of $276 per 100 shares minus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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