Issue #692
Nov 1, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Traders Awaiting Election Results to Decide Direction!

DOW Friday closing price - 26501
SPX Friday closing price - 3269
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 10911

All the indexes fell in excess of 5% in value and the DOW and the SPX both gave new sell signals on the weekly closing charts, which confirm the successful retest of the all-time higs which, in effect, means that the 11-year bull market has come to an end, at least in those 2 indexes. All the important and possibly catalytic earning reports are out and there is nothing on the immediate horizon,other than perhaps the election on Tuesday, that could be catalytic enough to change that outlook for the short term. Even then, if Trump wins (unlikely), the economic problems being seen as we enter the winter months and the pandemic expands are negative enough that it is not likely the market will rally enough to make a difference on the charts.

Nonetheless, there are still some unanswered questions as to whether the market will stage any form of recovery after the election, no matter who wins. In the past, elections have generally generated a rally immeidately thereafter. This means that the action for the next 4-8 weeks after the election are still not clear either way.

I have nothing else to say in this newsletter given that the election has not yet happened and as such, I cannot even begin to give an analysis of what the indexes and stocks will do this week. I will have an opinion on Wednesday after the election and will make that known at that time.

At this time though, it can be said that the probabilities do favor the bears because of the action (and sell signals) given this week. Only a surprise in the election can possibly change what was stated this past week. As such and also because of my carpal tunnel operation, there will not be a full newsletter this week. I am leaving last week's chart outlook (as is) for Gold, Oil and held stocks for your perusal tomorrow and Tuesday given that none of the stocks did enough this past week to change the chart outlooks given last week. I will give new information in the message board on Wednesday.

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GOLD generated an uneventful week, having closed $1 below the previous week's low. Nonetheless, it did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at $1895 is expected to be seen. Gold made a new 10-week low 5 weeks ago at $1851 and that low has not yet been tested successfully on the weekly chart, suggesting this is likely the week it will happen. There is decent intraweek support at $1874 that will definitely be a downside target for the bears this week. By the same token, there is some minor to decent support at $1885 on the daily chart that if Gold is as bullish as I believe it is, will not be broken. All that is needed to fulfill the chart is a drop below last week's low at $1895. If Gold does go below last week's low this week (likely) and does not break the important and pivotal support at $1851 and then turns around the following week and goes above whatever high is made this week, the chart will be fulfilled and the uptrend likely to resume and in a bullish way and likely immediately. Probabilities favor the bears at the beginning of the week but the bulls at the latter part of the week.

OIL generated a red weekly close, making the previous week's close at 40.89 into a successful retest of the previous and decent weekly close resistance at 41.11. What makes this red close even more indicative is that oil made a new 7-week intraweek high and generated a buy signal on the daily chart, only to generate a failure signal on the daily chart and the red weekly close. Oil closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 39.57 will be seen this week. Minor to decent intraweek support is found at 38.66/38.72 that if broken will further weaken the chart. Given that the indexes are likely to attempt a rally early in the week, probabilities favor the oil bulls doing the same, with potentially a rally back up to as high as 41.11. Nonetheless, another red weekly close next Friday (below this past Friday's close at 39.85) will be confirmation of the successful retest and give the bears renewed ammunition. Any break below 38.66 will be seen as a negative. It is unlikely much will happen this week given the election is the following week, as such, I would anticipate a trading range between 39.00 and 41.00 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, both the chart and fundamental outlook support lower prices after the election, unless there is a surprise.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no new mentions this week. Nonetheless, that will change after Tuesday's election.

Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018: Profit of $1,637 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2019: Profit of $13,051per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted

Status of account for 2020, as of 11/1

Loss of $36,625 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for October per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

QQQ (short) $1296 (5 day trades)
AXP (short) $312 (1 day trade)
FNV (long) $262 (1 day trade)
W (long) $1104 (2 day trades)
CAT (short) $294 (2 day trades)
CAT (long) $ 1323 (3 day trade)

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

NONE

Total Profit for October, per 100 shares and after commissions $4591

Closed out losing trades for October per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

CAT (short) $44 (1 day trade)
AXP (short) $34 (1 day trade)
QQQ (short) $301 (1 day trade)

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

NONE

Total Loss for October, per 100 shares, including commissions $379

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 9/30

NONE

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

ORCL (short) $359 CNX (long) $52
W (short) $8596
QQQ (short) $1692
AXP (short) $2703
BTZI (long) $37
CRON (long) $112
SRUTF (long) $6

Total $$15177

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 10/31

AU (long) $283

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

MRNA (long) $984
RIO (long) $724
CAT (short) $3160
AU (long) $1620
NEM (long) $305
ENG (long) $48

Total $7161

Status of trades for month of October per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtracted.

Profit of $12228

Status of account/portfolio for 2020, as of 10/31

Loss of $24,397

per 100 shares.



Updates on Held Stocks

AU made a new 15-week low daily close and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 24.87 will be seen this week. This new low daily close keeps the bears in short-term control. Intraweek support is found at 24.35 and then again and stronger and more pivotal at 22.83. The stock did close just above the 200-day MA, currently at 25.02, and did close in the upper half of Friday's trading range, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 25.47 will be seen on Monday. If that occurs, this would be the 2nd successful retest of the line in the last 6 months since the line got broken to the upside. A rally above 27.20 would confirm the successful retest and likely bring in new buying interest. A break below 24.35, followed by a close below the MA line, would be seen as a negative. Probabilities favor the bulls.

AXP generated a red weekly close (the 2nd in a row) and a close below the 200-day MA, currently at 101.62, as well as very slightly below the 200-week MA, currently at 101.00. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 100.00 is expected to be seen. Another red weekly close next Friday would be a negative sign. Nonetheless, another close below the 200-day MA on Monday would cause the traders to lean on the bear side. These are important signs given that the stock reported earnings this week and they were worse than expected, meaning any sign given is likely to be indicative. Likely pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 104.87. The stock has a gap below at 96.85 that is likely to be a magnet. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 93.71. Probabilities favor the bears.

BTZI generated a new 8-month weekly closing high the previous week and confirmed that breakout with a 2nd green weekly close on Friday. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .0436 will be seen this week. There is no resistance until minor to decent intraweek resistance is found at .0489. That level also shows daily close resistance of some consequence. By the same token, the stock has now closed above the 200-day MA, currently at .036, for 7 days in a row, strongly suggesting the downside is over and that an uptrend could be starting. Any daily close above .048 would be a strong short-term positive that would likely thrust the stock up to the 2 highs seen in the last 17 months at .08 and at .088. Support is now found at .036. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CAT generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 33-month high but then closing red. The red close was only by $.16 cents and as such not all that convincing. In addition, the stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 166.76 than above last week's high at 171.24. What is likely to decide direction from here is the earnings report on the company that comes out Tuesday morning. Evidently, another red close next Friday would generate a confirmed successful retest of the all-time high weekly close at 170.40. Intraweek resistance is now found at the high made last Monday at 171.26 and at the all-time high at 173.24. Support is found at the week's low at 166.76. The stock is showing 5 open gaps below and anything more than 2 gaps are likely to be closed unless there was some game changing fundamental news (which there has been none). As such, the 3rd gap down at 156.73 beckons unless the earnings report far exceeds expectations. The expectation is for $1.17. Probabilities favor the bears given that 1-year ago, the company reported earnings of $2.66 and as such, it seems highly unlikely that new all-time highs can be made fundamentally.

CNX made a new 9-week intraweek and weekly closing high, though on a closing basis it was only by $.03 cents. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range. Nonetheless, the stock has been in this same situation on 2 other occasions in the past 6 months and failure was the end result. The 200-week MA is currently at 11.73 and if the stock gets above the most recent intraweek high at 12.27 and closes above 12.00 next Friday, it will be considered a breakout of consequence, which if confirmed with another green close the following Friday, would mean the most recent 5-year downtrend is over. There is minor intraweek support at 10.65 and minor to decent but likely pivotal at 10.14. The intraweek resistance between 12.00 and 12.27 is decent and copious but if broken there is no resistance until 14.19. The repeated attempts to break above the 200-week MA suggests that this 3rd attempt might be the successful one. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CRON made a new 10-week intraweek and weekly closing high on Friday and did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.10 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, on Friday the stock generated a negative reversal day, having made a new 10-week high on that day but then closing red, suggesting the first course of action on Monday will be to the downside and below Friday's low at 5.79. The reason for the reversal was the fact the stock reached the 200-day MA, currently at 6.12, for the 3rd time in the last 4 months and selling was seen. Like with CNX though, 3 times is usually the magic number, meaning that if the support at 5.37 is not broken, the next attempt at the line will generate a break of it. If that does occur, the probabilities will be high that the traders will target the 200-week MA, currently at 7.57 as the next objective. Evidently, the election is important for the Cannabis industry, given that Biden and Harris are targeting the legalization of Marijuana in the U.S. As such, the election is likely to be the catalyst as to whether the stock ends the 18-month downtrend or not. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG generated an uneventful week, having closed $.01 cents below the previous week's close. Nonetheless, the stock did go below last week's low and if the stock goes above last week's high at 1.05, last week's low at .86 will become the needed/required successful retest of the recent low at .74. The 200-week MA is currently at 1.08 and if the bulls can close above that level, especially above the closing resistance at 1.11, new buying interest will be seen. Any close now above 1.22 would be a breakout and would suggest the 11-year 5-point trend line, currently at 1.50, would be tested. Any break above the recent intraweek high at 1.56, would mean the long-term downtrend is over and a large short-covering rally occur, with the $4-$5 level as a mid-term objective. Pivotal intraweek support now likely to be at .74. Probabilities favor the bulls.

MRNA generated follow through to the downside after last week's spike up and closed near the low of the week. The stock has now seen a correction of 16.4% from the recent high seen 3 weeks ago to last week's low. Nonetheless, this correction was all technical (chart oriented) and not based on any change of fundamentals. The 68.80-69.00 level on a weekly closing basis, has been pivotal since that was the previous all-time high weekly close seen 5 months ago. The stock did trade as low as 68.06 last week but then saw a rally at the end of the week, to close on Friday at 70.53, suggesting the bulls remain in control. News remains positive for the company as just today (Sunday), it was announced that Qatar signed a deal to buy the vaccine from the company. The stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 68.06 than above last week's high at 74.09. If that does occur, there is minor support at 67.25 and a bit stronger between 63.64 and 65.00. Based on the fact that the stock has now gone below a previous week's low (the first time that has happened since the 54.21 low was made), if the stock goes above last week's high, a successful and needed/required retest of that low will have occurred and new buying will likely be seen. Probabilities favor the bulls.

NEM generated a new 4-week intraweek low and a new 17-week weekly closing low. The stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 59.84 is expected to be seen this week. Short-term pivotal intraweek support is found at 59.28 that if broken will further weaken the chart, at least for the short-term. Nonetheless and in looking at the daily chart, the 200-day MA is currently at 57.49 and there is also intraweek support there and on down to 57.08 that should not be broken, given that a break of the MA line would suggest the uptrend is over, and that is not a likely scenario. As such, there is a decent chance the stock will get down to the line this week as it did in March but not break the line on a daily closing basis (the same as in March). A drop down to the line is probably the "worst case scenario", but it is not all that probable given the intraweek support at 59.28 that has a good chance to hold up. To the upside, there is no pivotal level of resistance until 64.33. I do not expect that level to be seen or approached this week. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but it is almost a toss-up.

ORCL generated a new 3-week intraweek low as well as another red weekly close. Nonetheless, the bears failed to make any kind of a statement given that the stock closed on Friday at 59.91 and the previous multi-year weekly closing high is at 59.80. Simply stated, no failure signal was given and the chart remains bullish as the traders await the election results. The stock did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 60.75 than below last week's low at 58.89. Either way, it is unlikely that anything of consequence will occur this week. The traders are waiting for the election results before deciding direction from here. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but only slightly.

QQQ generated a red weekly close, meaning that the previous week's close at 288.41 is now a successful retest of the all-time high weekly close at 292.52. If confirmed next Friday with another red weekly close, probabilities that the uptrend is over will increase exponentially. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 280.82 than above last week's high at 292.48. Minor intraweek support is found at 273.44. Nonetheless, any daily close below 274.31 would generate a new sell signal. Pivotal resistance is found at 297.46 that if broken would give the bulls new ammunition. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.

RIO made a new 3-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 59.07 will be seen this week. The stock has no intraweek support until 56.92 is reached but on a daily closing basis, support of some consequence is found at 59.20. The stock generated one of the small trading ranges in months, suggesting that trading interest at this time is waning, likely as the traders await election results. Pivotal resistance is found at 63.14. Probabilities favor the bears this week but having closed on Friday at 59.60 but there being daily close support of some consequence at 59.20, the downside is likely limited.

SRUTF generated a spike rally this past week, having seen a low of .039 and a high of .08. Nonetheless and at the end of the week, the bulls failed to generate anything of consequence as a close above .058 was needed for a new buy signal on the weekly closing chart and a close above .0605 to generate a failure signal. The stock traded above both levels up to within 90 minutes of the close on Friday but then the bulls failed to accomplish the goal, meaning nothing of consequence was accomplished. Nonetheless, the main reason the stock sold off from the high of the week is that the stock reached the 200-day MA, currently at .0701 and this was only the 2nd time that line has been tested in the last 15 months. With nothing to be decided until after the election, it was not likely the MA would be broken at this time. Intraweek support is found at .0447 that should not be broken. As such, it is likely the stock will trade between .0447 and .06 this week with a slight edge to the bulls for a close above resistance next Friday.

W generated a spike down week in which a new 5-week intraweek and weekly closing low mas made. The stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 260.76 will be seen this week. Pivotal weekly close support is found at 252.28, which is likely to be seen this week. A close below that level is likely to occur ultimately but not necessarily this week, prior to the election. The stock did generate a new sell signal on the daily closing chart but a close below 252.08 is needed to bring in new selling interest. Minor intraweek resistance is found at 275.85 and decent at 296.86. Probabilities favor the bears.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .91.

2) BTZI - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .043.

3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.83.

4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .055.

5) W - Averaged short at 86.61 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 265.85.

6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 168.59

7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 284.74.

8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 100.98.

9) AU - Purchased at 25.97. Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 25.17.

10) NEM - Averaged long at 60.742 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 60.47.

11) MRNA - Averaged long at 59.54 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 70.53.

12) RIO - Averaged long at 62.845 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 59.60.

13) CNX - Averaged long at 9.10 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.40.

14) ORCL - Shorted at 60.36. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 59.90.

15) QQQ - Day traded short 3 times. Total profit of $832 minus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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