Issue #693
Nov 8, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Biden Win in Conjunction with Republicans Holding the Senate seems to be a positive!

DOW Friday closing price - 28323
SPX Friday closing price - 3509
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 11895

All indexes totally reversed the previous week's drop after positive economic reports were reported and the election results given. In the case of the SPX and the NASDAQ, new all-time high weekly closes were generated, though in the SPX it was only by 1 point and therefore not all that convincing. All the indexes closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's highs (SPX at 3529 and in the NAZ at 11924) is expected to be seen. If that occurs, both of those indexes will be near the all-time intraweek highs (SPX at 3588 and in the NAZ at 12074) and likely to test them and/or break them. If that occurs, the new all-time weekly closing highs will be confirmed and a new leg to the uptrend will have begun. With no catalytic events scheduled over the next few weeks, if the bulls are able to accomplish doing this on the charts, there will be nothing the bears can do (or expect to happen) to derail the process the rest of the year until the new administration takes over in January 21, 2021.

The Biden win, in conjunction with the Republicans holding on to a majority advantage in the Senate, has basically guaranteed that possible negatives to the market (such as a tax hike) are not likely to occur. In addition and with Biden being more of a centrist than a leftist, it does suggest that the economy will continue to be of primary concern. All of these are positives to the market. On the opposite side and with the Republicans in charge of the Senate, it does suggest that the 2nd Stimulus program will not be as hefty as the Democrats want and therefore not as helpful to the market. In addition, Biden is more likely than Trump to impose closings of business due to the pandemic and to increase the costs of the government in dealing with the virus (infection tests and contact tracing), both of which would not be a positive to the market. This does suggest that the positive bias in the market will be limited and therefore a new leg up not likely to be straight up (as it was in 2016 when Trump won) but be limited in nature, as well as have a clear peaks and valley scenario.

The objective of the bulls this week will be to make a statement in the DOW (which did not make any statement last week) and to confirm the statements made in the NASDAQ and the SPX by making new all-time highs. In the DOW that means an intraweek rally above 28957 and a weekly close next Friday above 28606. In the SPX it means an intraweek rally above 3588 and another close next Friday above 3508, and in the NASDAQ an intraweek rally above 12074 and another close next Friday above 11695. The outcome for this week is not a given as this fundamental scenario is not crystal clear now and will not be crystal clear for months or even years (even after the inauguration of the new president). The bears will be working as hard as the bulls to accomplish their goals. That has not changed.

To the downside, here are the levels that need to be watched that if broken could give the bears the edge. In the DOW, the 27682 level shows support that should not be broken if the index is to head higher. It is not pivotal support but it is a level that will throw cold water on the bulls and give the resistance levels above more strength. In the SPX the level to watch is 3393 on an intraweek basis as that level is now support that should not be broken (same thing as the DOW). Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, the index has to generate a green weekly close next Friday (above 3508). In the NASDAQ the level to watch is at 11663. The index shows 2 gaps this past week (breakaway and runaway) and given that it made a new all-time weekly closing high, closure of the runaway gap would be seen as a big negative to confirmation next Friday as closure of the runaway gap would make the breakaway gap at 11213 a target magnet and open the door wide to a failure signal being given next Friday. Evidently, the NASDAQ will be the one the traders will be watching the closest as it has been the leader to the upside and for this week is it the one that has the closest level below of importance at only a 2% drop in price. With the index having rallied 10% in value this past week, a 2% drop is not out of the realm of possibility.

There are no economic or earnings reports of consequence scheduled and though the presidential race has now been declared in favor of Biden, until he is officially declared the winner (mid December) the traders are not likely to get aggressive with their decisions. Nonetheless and with no potentially negative catalytic surprises due out this week, probabilities definitely favor the bulls. By the same token, with everything explained above, the bears still have a chance to "upset the applecart".


GOLD generated a new buy and failure-against-the-bears signal this past week, having closed on a weekly closing basis above the previous 8-week weekly closing high at $1926 as well as above the previous weekly closing low at $1934 that was made the last week of August that when broken took Gold down to $1851. Gold closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at $1963 is expected to be seen this week. A weekly close next Friday above $1962 will confirm all of this and open the door for at least a retest of the all-time high weekly close at $2028. On a more sensitive basis, any daily close above $1970 should mean the bulls are back in full control. On a daily closing basis, support is now found at $1923/$1929 which if broken, would generate a failure signal against the bulls and negate all that was accomplished this past week. The Biden win, the stimulus program and the likely problems of getting things done between the Democratic president and still Republican controlled Senate, as well and the continuing (and increasing) problems with the pandemic, virtually guarantees the dollar will stay weak or weaken further and that strongly supports the bulls in Gold. Probabilities favor the bulls.

OIL bears were not able to confirm the previous week's break of support, having closed on Friday above the 2 low weekly close supports at 36.26 and 37.05 (closed at 37.46), meaning that the bears did not gain full control. By the same token, Oil closed $1.89 below the high of the week and barely above the previously important 37.05 weekly support level, meaning that the bulls were not able to make a bull statement either. Oil did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 39.35 than below last week's low at 33.65, suggesting that Oil is likely now trading sideways, with the trading range likely to be $4 and between 36.16 and 40.44. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but only for a slight bias to the upside.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions as of this writing given that the signals given last week are still not clear as to the direction of the market. Nonetheless, as the market begins to trade this week, a clearer picture will begin to be given and if and when that happens, I will give mentions on the board.

There are a couple of industries (Cannabis and Gold) that I will be closely monitoring this week as in both of these, it does seem that money will be flowing to, from here on in. By the same token, in both of those industries more needs to be done this week to have some confidence in buying.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU had an indicative week given that it generated a green weekly close that accomplished 2 important chart things. 1) the stock negated the previous week's break of 5-month low weekly close support and 2) generated a successful retest of the 7-year breakout at 22.53 (weekly closing high) that generated the rally to 38.50. With both of these bull accomplishments it can now be said with a fair degree of confidence that the correction is over and that a retest of the 38.50 level is now likely to occur and that maybe a new leg to the uptrend has begun. If the latter is the case, the upside target will be the $50 level, to be likely reached sometime next year (if not in the first 6 months of the year). The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 28.00 is expected to be seen. Short term resistance is found at 27.97 and then again at 29.96 (based on a daily close). If both are broken, there is very little resistance above until the July daily closing high at 37.91 is reached. If the first resistance level is broken, it will confirm last week's action (stated above). If the second resistance level is broken, it will confirm that a short-to-midterm uptrend is in place. Pivotal support is now found at 25.41 (also on a daily closing basis). Probabilities favor the bulls.

AXP generated an inside week but a green weekly close and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 98.64 than below last week's low at 92.27. Nonetheless, the stock gave some mixed signals on Friday, having generated a negative reversal day by making a new 9-day high but then closing red and below Thursday's low. What made this reversal even more important is that the 200-day MA is currently at 99.82 and if the reversal is confirmed on Monday with another red close, it will mean the line was tested successfully and no further upside likely to be seen. By the same token, if the negative daily reversal is not confirmed, the stock is likely to rally up to the 200-week MA, currently at 101.19. Until that line is broken and confirmed, the bears remain in control. The stock is showing an open gap down at 91.32 that will become a magnet if the negative reversal on the daily chart is confirmed. Pivotal support is found at 89.11. Any intraweek rally above 104.86 would give the bulls control. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

BTZI made a new 9-month weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .055 will be seen this week. This rally is mostly from the Biden win that suggests that Marijuana could be legalized in the U.S. in 2021. Pivotal weekly close resistance is found at .066 that if broken would not only give a strong buy signal but negate all the weakness seen in the last 15 months. It would also become a new support level. On a weekly closing basis, the .04 level has now become important support until the .066 level is broken to the upside. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CAT generated a green weekly close, making the previous week's close at 157.05 into a successful retest of a previous high weekly close resistance of some note at 156.38. The green close keep the bulls with the edge. Nonetheless, there was a weekly close resistance at 162.41 that the stock should have closed above on Friday, especially given that the stock traded above that level on 4 days last week and above that level for the first 150 minutes on Friday. Given that the indexes were able to generate some important gains on Friday, the stock failed to do the same, suggesting some weakness is there. The stock did generate a negative reversal day on Friday and a red close on the low of the day, suggesting the first course of business on Monday will be to the downside. In addition, the stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probabilities of going below last week's low at 155.23 than above last week's high at 169.00. One of the upside objectives was the gap at 167.56, which was closed on Tuesday, meaning that upside magnet is gone. Nonetheless and in spite of the indexes continuing higher during the week, the stock was unable to go higher after Tuesday, suggesting that the probabilities favor the bears at this time. Last week's low at 155.23 is pivotal and if broken, the bears will gain a strong edge.

CNX had a very disappointing week in which several short-term negative chart signals were given. First of all, the stock made a new 14-week intraweek and weekly closing low. Secondly, a short-term important weekly closing low at 9.30 was broken, meaning the bulls need to retest and confirm the weekly close support level at 8.33 before any new consideration be given to the upside. Lastly, the stock broke the 200-day MA, currently at 9.23, which had not been broken since April. All of this happening in spite of an upgrade given to the company the week before and oil and gas sector having given a failure signal against the bears. There was no new news having come out last week. There is important weekly close support at 8.33 that should hold up and if it does, the stock is likely to once again go up to test the 200-week MA, currently at 11.67, and at the same time fulfill the upgrade objective of $12. Nonetheless, this break of support does throw a bucket of cold water on the idea that the stock was ready to breakout of its longer term downtrend (above the weekly MA) and go up to the $15 level. This does mean that on any rally back up near the $12 level that profits should be taken. The first course of business for the bulls is to get back above the 200-day MA and negate this break. That will be the objective for this week or next. I do not see the stock having much strength this week as the 8.33 level is a magnet.

CRON has a strong week in which a new 8-month intraweek and weekly closing high was made. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at .8.44 is expected to be seen. The stock moved up on the news that Biden won the election, given that both he and Harris have stated they will make Marijuana legal in the United States. Pivotal midterm weekly close resistance is found at 8.55 that if broken would be a major statement that would wipe out 15 months of weakness. On a weekly closing basis, support will now be found at 6.70. One important thing to mention. On Friday, the stock generated the biggest volume day seen in 15 months. The volume being that high does fully support the breakout. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG generated an uneventful week, having closed at the same level as last week. Nonetheless, the stock did go below last week's low and if the stock goes above last week's high at .86, last week's low at .76 will become the needed/required successful retest of the recent low at .69. The 200-week MA is currently at 1.08 and if the bulls can close above that level, especially above the closing resistance at 1.11, new buying interest will be seen. Any close now above 1.22 would be a breakout and would suggest the 11-year 5-point trend line, currently at 1.50, would be tested. Any break above the recent intraweek high at 1.56, would mean the long-term downtrend is over and a large short-covering rally occur, with the $4-$5 level as a mid-term objective. Pivotal intraweek support now likely to be at .69. Probabilities favor the bulls.

MRNA generated an uneventful inside week but did close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 74.16 will be seen this week. The close this week was important as the previous week the stock had generated a failure signal against the bulls, having closed below the pivotal 69.00 level that has been an established pivot point since it was first made in May. As such, last week's down action must be considered a 1-week trading anomaly. Intraweek resistance is found at 75.39 that if broken, offers open air above to the $80 level. On a weekly closing basis though, any close above 74.10 would open the door for a rally up to the all-time high weekly close at 94.85. On a daily closing basis, pivotal support is found at 65.17 and on a weekly closing basis at 67.47. If any of those levels are broken, the chart would suggest a change of trend. For now though, the trend is definitely up and the bulls have the probabilities in their favor.

NEM has rallied 15% in value over the past two weeks and closed on Friday at the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 68.45 will be seen this week. The stock closed in an area of decent daily and weekly close resistance between 67.90 and 68.35. Any close above 68.35 would cause the stock to rally and test the now established all-time high double top on the weekly closing chart at 69.61and the all-time daily closing high at 70.37. The bulls are now committed to doing that right away, given the 2 weeks ago, the stock made a new 18-week low that has not been tested successfully, meaning any weakness now would be at least a short term negative. As such, any red daily (and especially weekly) red close without first making a new all-time high daily/weekly close would be a negative of some consequence. Nonetheless, with Gold having broken out and likely to go further to the upside, the probabilities favor the bulls at this time. Pivotal daily close support is found at 64.76. A close below that level would give the edge to the bears.

ORCL generated an uneventful inside week but did generate a green close. Unfortunately for the bulls and in spite of the green close, the close was near the low of the week, suggesting a much higher probability of the stock going below last week's low at 56.12 than above last week's high at 58.09. With the indexes having accomplished a bullish week, this was disappointing action that keeps the bears in control. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at last week's high at 58.09 and longer term resistance on a weekly closing basis is at 59.87. Short term important intraweek support is found at 55.17. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.

QQQ made a new all-time weekly closing high on Friday, having closed above the previous one at 292.53, made in August. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 295.39 is expected to be seen. The stock still has 2 intraweek resistance levels above at 297.46 and the all-time intraweek high at 303.50. This is an important week because the bulls must confirm the breakout with another green close next Friday. Just like the NASDAQ, the stock is showing a breakaway/runaway gap formation that is bullish. If the runaway gap is closed (a drop down to 288.77), the breakaway gap at 273.52 would become a target and if that occurs, confirmation of the new all-time high would not occur. The bulls are committed to making a new all-time intraweek high and confirming the new all-time high weekly close next Friday. If that does not occur, the bulls will be in trouble. Probabilities favor the bulls.

RIO generated a failure signal against the bears, having closed on Friday a few points above the weekly close support level at 60.77 that that when broken, caused the stock to drop all the way down to 55.39. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 61.20 is expected to be seen this week. Short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 62.09 that if broken would like cause the gap up at 63.83 to be closed. Important intraweek resistance is found at 64.02 that if broken would give full control back to the bulls. Intraweek support is now found at 59.24 that if broken would be indicative of the uptrend changing to a sideways trend. As such, a stop loss at 59.14 can now be used. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but they do need to get above 64.02 to make a bull statement for further upside.

SRUTF generated a very uneventful inside week in which it traded in a very small .0085 trading range. The stock did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .0375 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the Cannabis industry did see some strength this week due to the Biden win and there is no reason (to my knowledge) that will prevent this stock from rallying along. There is intraweek support at .03 and pivotal at .025 and resistance is found at .049, at .0659 and long term pivotal at .080. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

W generated a strong up week as well as a green weekly close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 303.34 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and in spite of the big rally as well as the accomplishments of the NAZ, no resistance levels were broken, meaning the bulls did not make any kind of a statement. There is important and pivotal weekly close resistance at 305.86 that if broken would give the bulls control again and generate a retest of the all-time high. There is no clearly defined level on the daily closing chart but there is some perhaps short-term pivotal resistance on a daily closing basis at 304.17 that if broken would give the bulls a slight additional edge. Daily close resistance of some pivotal value is found at 282.74 that if broken would burst the bull balloon created this week. On an intraweek basis, there is a fair amount of resistance around $308 and a fair amount of support around $284. If the stock gets above or below either of those two levels, the probabilities will shift accordingly. For now and with the bulls having failed to make any kind of a statement on this rally, other than perhaps the recent downtrend is temporarily over, I have to give a slight probability to the bears this week unless the index market makes some unexpected inroads to the upside.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .78.

2) BTZI - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0545.

3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.51.

4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0402.

5) W - Averaged short at 86.61 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 301.13.

6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 161.29

7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 294.61.

8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 96.69.

9) AU - Purchased at 25.97. Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 27.56.

10) NEM - Averaged long at 60.742 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 68.14.

11) MRNA - Averaged long at 59.54 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 72.45.

12) RIO - Averaged long at 62.845 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 60.83.

13) CNX - Averaged long at 9.10 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.74.

14) ORCL - Shorted at 60.36. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 56.80.

15) QQQ - Day traded short at 295.03. Covered shorts at 293.38. Profit of $171 per 100 shares minus commissions.

16) PG - Day traded short at 142.87. Covered shorts at 141.07. Profit of $170 per 100 shares minus commissions.

17) AXP - Day traded short at 93.68. Covered shorts at 92.98. Profit on $70 per 100 shares minus commissions.

18) MSFT - Day traded short 3 times. Loss on the trades of $136 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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