Issue #694
Nov 15, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Biden Win in Conjunction with Republicans Holding the Senate seems to be a positive!

DOW Friday closing price - 29479
SPX Friday closing price - 3585
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 11829

Across the board, all indexes made new all-time intraweek highs but on Friday, only the SPX was able to confirm the breakout on the weekly closing chart, having made a new all-time weekly closing high at 3585 (5 points above the previous all-time high at 3580). The other two indexes (DOW and NASDAQ) failed to do so. The failure to make new all-time weekly closing highs across the board leaves question unanswered, especially with the fact that it was the SPX the one that accomplished it, given that the index rarely has been the leader on rallies or corrections.

The reason for the rally (announcement that a successful vaccine was found) is not a valid reason for the traders to believe that the uptrend has resumed as the vaccine will not erase any of the economic damage that has been done due to the virus. In addition, it is unlikely that the vaccine will be available to the entire nation before mid 2021 (or even later), meaning that resumption of normal economics, like what was in place before the pandemic began, could still be years away. It is true that the stimulus program has prevented the pandemic from causing irreparable economic damage to the economy but the emotional effects and change of buying patterns among the population will be felt for years to come and companies getting to a level of having a better economic situation than pre-pandemic is not based on reality for the next couple of years. As such, it has to be believed that the index market and the companies driving the rally are overdone to the upside and that when all is set to be instituted as a reality, the reaction will be to sell (rather than buy). The adage of "buy the anticipation and sell the news" is likely to apply here.

From a chart point of view though, the index market finds itself at an important chart level where the bulls cannot give any false steps, especially this coming week. The DOW closed 72 points from its all-time high weekly close at 29551 and the SPX made a new all-time high at 3585 (above the previous one at 3580). This means that a red close next Friday will create a double top in both indexes that would be hard to negate given that there are no potential surprises to be found until the new administration takes over on January 20th 2021. Simply stated, if the bulls want to make a statement, they need to do it this week. The bulls are totally committed to a green close next Friday. Any failure will be a sign of weakness that will be pounced on by the bears.

All indexes closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 29933, SPX at 3645 and NAZ at 12108) will be seen this week. This will be what the traders will look to in the first part of the week. If able to get above last week's highs, the bulls will gain additional confidence and with no economic or earnings reports scheduled for this week that could be potentially negative catalysts, a rally above last week's highs would be additional ammunition for the bulls. This is especially true in the NASDAQ as this index generated a negative reversal week, having made a new all-time intraweek high but then closing red and below the previous all-time high daily close at 12056 as well as below the previous two successful retests of that all-time high daily closes (closes at 11876 and at 11890). The index closed on Friday at 11829 and without the NAZ (the leader to the upside the past 11 years) following through to the upside, it would be virtually impossible to have the other indexes continue higher. With the daily closes playing an important part in the index outlook this week, Monday's close becomes somewhat pivotal given that a red close on Monday would generate a 3rd successful retest of the all-time high daily close.

The Biden win, in conjunction with the Republicans holding on to a majority advantage in the Senate, has basically guaranteed that possible negatives to the market (such as a tax hike) are not likely to occur. In addition and with Biden being more of a centrist than a leftist, it does suggest that the economy will continue to be of primary concern. All of these are positives to the market. On the opposite side and with the Republicans in charge of the Senate, it does suggest that the 2nd Stimulus program will not be as hefty as the Democrats want and therefore not as helpful to the market. In addition, Biden is more likely than Trump to impose closings of business due to the pandemic and to increase the costs of the government in dealing with the virus (infection tests and contact tracing), both of which would not be a positive to the market. This does suggest that the positive bias in the market will be limited and therefore a new leg up not likely to be straight up (as it was in 2016 when Trump won) but be limited in nature, as well as have a clear peaks and valley scenario.

One chart positive the bears now have is that the NASDAQ had generated a breakaway/runaway gap formation that was negated this week when the runaway gap at 11663 was closed. If the bulls are unable to continue to the upside (and that should be easier for the NAZ than the DOW and the SPX as it was the index that closed the nearest to the last week's high), the breakaway gap at 11213 will begin to beckon and a closure of that gap will be a huge bucket of ice water on the hopes of the bulls.

I am not going to supply this week any other support or resistance levels or pivot points given that all the attention this week will be on the last week's highs and on the NASDAQ and a green daily close above 11890 or a red close on Monday. Those are going to be the main goalposts for the traders this week.

I continue to give the bears the probability number but on a very slight basis as momentum is on the side of the bulls and stoppage of momentum is always difficult to predict.


GOLD generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 7-week intraweek high and then going below the previous week's low (making a new 17-week low) and then closing in the red. Gold closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at $1848 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, all this action occurred on Monday when the news of the vaccine came out and the market in general reacted in a panicked way, meaning that the "normal" chart expectations on the action seen last week cannot be depended on, especially in the case of Gold where it recovered enough in the following 4 days to generate a successful retest of Monday's low as well as giving a new buy signal on the 60-minute chart. Evidently, the buy and failure signal against the bears were both negated this week, meaning the bears gained the edge back that they had lost the previous week. This means another week or two of backing and filling is likely to occur, with the caveat that no new intraweek lows are made, especially with the fact that the previous all-time weekly closing high was $1847 and Gold got down to $1848 this past week. Intraweek support is now established at $1853 and at $1848. To the upside though, there is mostly open air above up until $1927, which on a daily closing level has proven to be a pivotal area of support and resistance. It is highly likely that Gold will rally up to that level this week before the traders start thinking about "the next step". Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

OIL made a new 10-week intraweek high off of the vaccine news but the bulls were unable to confirm the rally given that Oil barely closed above the daily close resistance at 41.46 (closed at 41.53) and failed to close on Friday above weekly close resistance at 40.43 (closed at 40.13). As such, the bears remain with the edge though it is also evident by the action the last two week that the bears have lost "control" of the Oil market, meaning the probabilities continue to favor it being sideways for now. Oil closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 43.05 or below last week's low at 37.17. The support below is in an area that has been pivotal in the recent past and therefore if the $37 level gets broken, the bears will get their edge back. To the upside, the 43.78 level is pivotal. If either of these levels gets broken, it will give the edge to the bulls or bears. The 41.53 level remains pivotal on a daily closing basis, meaning that if broken the bulls would get a small edge. Probabilities suggest Oil will continue to trade sideways with neither support or resistance being broken. Then again, Oil does follow the index market, meaning that what is decided in the index market is likely affect oil as well.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have one new mention this week. I am still somewhat reluctant to offer mentions as the outlook is still unclear but I do expect to have more mentions next week as I believe this week is extremely pivotal for the next 14 weeks (until the new administration takes over). Nonetheless, the one mention I have is in a Chinese stock that has a some positive chart action seen, as well as the fact that Chinese stocks are anticipated to outperform U.S. stocks.

BIDU Friday Closing Price - 145.08

BIDU is the Chinese equivalent of Google and this past week the stock made a new 18-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 148.38 will be seen this week.

BIDU is devoid of any "recent" intraweek resistance above until the 200-week MA, currently at 172.84, is reached, meaning that if the breakout is confirmed this coming Friday, there is open air above, at least on a recent basis, which makes the trade quite attractive. Going back to 2011/2012, resistance and be found between 154.15 and 165.96 but even then and with the stock trading at $145, the trade offers at least a $9 per share profit, if and when the breakout is confirmed. Using the daily chart, BIDU is showing a bullish flag formation with the flag being the straight up rally from 134.94 to 148.38 and the flag being the trading range seen the last 7 trading days with a low at 140.68. A break of the flag to the upside, offers an objective of 154.10. The bottom of the flag offers a dependable support level that can be used to limit the risk and give a high probability rating to the trade.

Using the 10-minute intraday chart, there is a fair chance that the stock could drop back down on Monday as low as the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 143.86. As such, that is the most desired entry point into the trade. Using an entry point of 143.90, a stop loss at 140.58 and having a minimum objective of 154.10, offers a 3-1 risk/reward ratio. Nonetheless, the weekly chart does suggest the stock will move up close (or up to) the 200-week MA, meaning the risk/reward ratio using the 143.90 entry point, could be as high as 8-1.

The probability rating would normally be above 4 (on a scale of 1-5) but because this week is unclear as to the action in the U.S. Index market and how that would affect Chinese stocks, the probability number drops down to 3.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU failed to follow through to the upside after last week's close on the highs of the week and ended up generating a move down below the previous week's low, a red close, and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 23.06 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the down week came as a reaction to the vaccine news that generated crazy action all over the place. On a possible/probable positive note, the stock had an unclosed gap below at 23.25 that had no fundamental reason to stay unclosed. The gap was closed on Wednesday and on Friday the stock went above Thursday's high and therefore on the daily closing chart, a successful retest of the low has now occurred and if that is confirmed this week with another green close on Monday (especially if above the 200-day MA, currently at 25.32), the probabilities of further downside below last week's low will be brought down to minimal. Using the daily chart, if the stock is able to close above the MA, the chart will be fulfilled to the downside and the traders will turn all of their attention to the upside. There is an open gap above at 27.04 that will now act as a magnet unless some negative news comes out. A daily stop close only stop loss can now be placed at 23.10. Simply stated, the probabilities now favor the bulls.

AXP generated a new 37-week intraweek and weekly closing high but closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 119.89 or below last week's low at 109.55, The stock accomplished this based on the rally that occurred due to the announcement of the vaccine as well as the strength seen in the financial industry (SPX). Nonetheless, this rally and new multi-week high is exclusively tied in to the index market and as such, the fate of the stock will lie on what the indexes do from here. From a purely chart point of view, the stock gapped up last Monday on the news but this gap is not supported by company news, meaning the gap down at 98.64 is a magnet unless the index market continues higher and in a strong way. On a negative chart point of view, the stock closed on Friday at 114.99 and there is decent resistance in that area (between 114.41 and 114.91) from 2 previous and important/pivotal support levels built in May and September of last year, which when broken, caused the stock to drop all the way down 73.60. As such, the close on Friday is a pivotal level of weekly close support for next Friday. A green close next Friday would mean further upside is to be seen, while a red close next Friday would mean no further upside is to occur. I believe the probabilities favor the bears.

BTZI did not follow through to the upside as expected by the close on the high of the week the previous week and generated a red weekly close. Nonetheless, no support levels were broken and the stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting this past week might have been more about building a new support level than anything meaningful. The stock did get below the previous week's low and if the bulls are able to get the stock above last week's high at .055, last week's low at .040 will become the new support level. This is important given the .040 level was unbreakable resistance for several months and now likely will become strong support. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CAT generated a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs this past week. Nonetheless, the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 167.47 and above last week's high at 176.37. The stock is in the same situation as the SPX, inasmuch as it has to confirm the breakout. In addition, the rally in the stock was for the exact same reasons as with the index (the announcement of the vaccine). There are several levels to watch for this week. On a daily closing basis, the previous all-time high daily close is at 170.89. Any two closes in a row this week below that level will generate a confirmed failure signal. Intraweek support is at 167.47 that if broken would give a short term edge to the bears and drive the stock down to at least 165.54 to close the gap there. A weekly close next Friday below the all-time high weekly close at 170.41 would also give a failure signal. Any rally above last week's high at 176.37 would be bullish and suggest further upside is to come. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

CNX generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 17-week intraweek low but then going above the previous week's high and closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 10.31 will be seen this week. In addition, the stock gave a failure signal against the bears, having closed above the pivotal support at 9.37 on Friday, the level that when broken took the stock down to last week's low at 8.31. The chart, with the break of the 9.37 level 3 weeks ago, suggests that neither the bulls or bears has control at this time and that the stock is presently in a sideways trading range between 9.37 and 11.50 level (based on weekly closes) and will remain in that trading range until the new administration takes over in the third week of January.

CRON generated negative reversal week, having made a new 9-month+ intraweek high and then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 6.63 will be seen this week. In addition, the red weekly close means that the previous week's close at 7.51 has become a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 7.65. The high of the week was at 8.81 and that is the 52-week intraweek high, meaning that in spite of the recent breakout, the bulls do not yet have enough ammunition to generate a major buy signal as a break of the year's high is at 9.00. This is no surprise as breaking that level is not likely to occur until more proof is shown that Biden and Harris will be able to legalize Marijuana in the U.S. and that is not likely to happen until they take office in January. As such, the traders are likely to be in the base building of a new support level that is likely to occur at the 6.00 level, which is considered at this time important and pivotal support. By the same token and once that level has been tested, the traders are likely to be buyers again and as such, a trading range between 6.00 and 9.00 is likely to be seen for the next 14 weeks.

ENG generated a second green weekly close in a row, fortifying the idea that the downside is over. By the same token, the bulls were not able to make any kind of a bullish statement, having closed on $.02 cents above the previous week's close and not having broken any resistance levels this past week. The stock did close slightly in the upper half of last week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .90 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at .96 and at .98 that if broken, especially on a daily closing basis, would suggest the bulls have their edge back. The 200-day MA is currently at .94 and that makes that resistance level even more pivotal. Pivotal support remains at .74. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

MRNA generated a new 16-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 90.53 is expected to be seen. There is no chart resistance above until the all-time intraweek high at 95.21 is reached, meaning that an attempt to reach and beat the all-time high is what the bulls will try to do this week. It is important to note that Pfizer (PFE) announced their successful vaccine and the stock rallied 13.4% immediately thereafter but is now (5 days later) trading only 5.8% higher in price. MRNA has rallied 19% in value during the same period of time, suggesting that the traders have "more than anticipated" the announcement of their vaccine success. As such, consideration to taking profits on all extra positions (other than the buy and hold) should be considered, especially immediately thereafter the results are announced. As far as support below, there is no support until the 80.00 level is reached and even then that support is only on a daily closing basis. As such, the risk/reward ratio with the stock closing on Friday at 89.39 is a negative one with only $5.82 per share profit potential to the all-time high and $9.39 per share risk down to support. Probabilities favor the bulls but taking partial profits is recommended.

NEM generated a red weekly close, making last week's weekly close at 68.14 into a successful retest of the double top on the weekly closing chart at 69.61/69.20. Normally, this would be reason enough to take profits and exit the held positions but given the reason for the red weekly close (fall in price of Gold based on the announcement of the vaccine), it suggests this red close was more panic driven than fundamentally supported. Nonetheless and knowing that the fate of the stock is on the shoulders of Gold, Gold action this week needs to be monitored closely (see Gold evaluation above). The stock did not sell off all that much after last Monday's announcement and did build daily close support at 64.89 that also additionally supported by a close on August 27th at 64.76, meaning that as long as that support is not broken, the bulls will remain with the edge. Evidently, this coming week is pivotal right across the board with Gold and the indexes and therefore by next Friday the chart outlook should be clear. On the weekly closing chart, there is clear (and likely pivotal) support at 63.85 that if broken would be a negative sign and reason to take profits. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

ORCL generated an uneventful weekly close, having closed only $.011 cents above last week's close in spite of the strength seen in the index market. The bulls were unable to break a "minor" weekly close resistance at 57.39 that suggests the traders continue to lean to the downside. In addition, the stock did get up as high as 59.08 on Monday but then spent the rest of the week straddling last week's close, meaning that there was no buying interest of consequence. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 56.10 will be seen. The recent intraweek low is at 55.14 and if that level is broken this week, further downside will be seen with the immediate target being the 200-day MA, currently at 54.24 and a possible midterm target of reaching 200-week MA, currently at 50.78. Nonetheless, if the low at 55.14 is not broken this week and the stock does get below 56.10 but then begins to rally, consideration should be given to taking profits. Pivotal and indicative support is found at 53.68. On the opposite side, pivotal resistance is found at 59.08. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

QQQ generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 10-week high but then closing red on Friday. In addition, a failure signal on the weekly closing chart was given, having closed below the previous all-time high weekly close at 292.53. By the same token, the bulls were able to rally the stock enough to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 299.14 than below last week's low at 280.62. Nonetheless and as stated above in the index evaluation, this coming week is looking to be pivotal and as such and based on the closes and the action seen last week, everything is unclear right now, meaning that following the charts other than on a closing basis, is impossible. There is some intraweek resistance at 297.46 that is likely to be reached but if not broken, the traders will turn to the sell side. Pivotal support is found at last week's low at 280.62 that if broken, would like mean the breakaway gap at 276.82 will be closed. If that happens, the bears will gain a decided edge. The fact that the runaway gap was closed last week and the breakaway gap beckons, I would give the bears a slight edge this week.

RIO generated follow through to the upside, a green weekly close, and a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 63.69 will be seen this week. The target for the bulls is closure of the gap up at 63.82 that is now a strong magnet for closure. Nonetheless and using the weekly closing chart, nothing was resolved this past week as the stock closed on Friday in an established resistance area between 62.15 and 62.78 (closed at 61.52), meaning that next Friday's close is pivotal. A red close below 62.15 or a green close above 62.78 will likely predict what will happen the rest of the year and into the first 3 weeks of the New Year. On a daily closing basis, a close below 60.68 would give the bears an edge for the week, while a daily close above 64.60 an edge for the bulls. Based on the recovery seen during the last 2 weeks, I would say the probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

SRUTF generated a very uneventful week, having broken no resistance or support levels and closing only $.001 cents from last week's close. There is intraweek support at .03 and pivotal at .025 and resistance is found at .049, at .0659 and long term pivotal at .080. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

W generated a new 15-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 225.05 will be seen this week. The clear break of support suggests that the 200-day MA, currently at 192.60, is a clear objective for the short term. Then again, with this week being strongly pivotal for the index market, watching what the indexes do is recommended when looking to get out of the short positions in the stock. Using the weekly chart, there is no established support of consequence until the previous all-time weekly closing high at 169.69 is reached. If the 200-day MA is broken and confirmed, that would be the downside objective. Nonetheless, consideration should be given to covering shorts on any drop below $200. Pivotal resistance is now found at 261.13. If that level is broken, the bulls will gain the edge back. Probabilities favor the bears.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .85.

2) BTZI - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0489.

3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.09.

4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0391.

5) W - Averaged short at 86.61 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 235.84.

6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 171.71

7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 290.93.

8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 114.99.

9) AU - Purchased at 25.97. Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 24.14.

10) NEM - Averaged long at 60.742 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 65.71.

11) MRNA - Averaged long at 55.395 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 89.39.

12) RIO - Averaged long at 62.845 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 62.51.

13) CNX - Averaged long at 9.10 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.92.

14) ORCL - Shorted at 60.36. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 56.91.

15) MRNA - Purchased at 63.04. Liquidated at 87.12. Profit on the trade of $2408 per 100 shares minus commissions.

16) AXP - Shorted at 119.79. Covered shorts at 115.92. Profit on the trade of $387 per 100 shares minus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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