Issue #697 Dec 6, 2020 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bulls in Full Control. No Obstacles in Sight for December!
DOW Friday closing price - 30218
The bulls were very successful this week, having made new all-time weekly closing highs in all 3 indexes, which in turned confirmed the breakout that occurred the week before. All indexed closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs this week (DOW at 30218, SPX at 3699 and NAZ at 12469). With confirmation having come on a week of important economic reports, it is evident that the bulls now have full control and December being a natural slow month that normally favors the bulls, it is likely the indexes will continue to move higher this month with some limitations given the lesser participation of traders during this holiday month as well as the strongly overbought condition of the indexes. In addition, there seems to be no potentially catalytic events scheduled for the month that could act as a negative (or positive) catalyst for movement. The next round of catalytic reports are not due until the first week of January when the ISM Index and Jobs reports come out as well as the runoff for the Georgia Senate elections on January 7th occurs. Until then, the only possible catalyst that could happen, and it would be a positive catalyst if it occurs, with it being the 2nd Stimulus program that seems to be progressing though slowly.
By the same token, it needs to be mentioned that without any catalyst that could be a negative one, any weakness seen would be indicative. The reality is that this past week clearly showed that the bulls are in control of the index market.
On a cautionary note, the indexes find themselves in a precarious situation where the last six weeks have all shown higher lows than the previous week, meaning there is absolutely no support below on an intraweek basis until the lows seen 7 weeks ago are reached (DOW at 26143, SPX at 3233 and NASDAQ at 10822) and reaching those levels on a correction would mean a drop of 13% to 15%. Evidently but on a weekly closing basis, the previous all-time weekly closing highs (DOW at 29398, SPX at 3508 and NAZ at 11695) will act as support for December, meaning that a drop of at least 2.8% to a max of 6.3% (depending on the index) is likely to be seen in December.
Starting this week, it is likely that the trading ranges and gains will get smaller, but the bias will continue to be slightly to the upside. There are no reports due out this week that are of great interest to anyone (bulls or bears). The CPI and PPI numbers will come out Thursday and Friday, as well as the weekly Initial Claims number. As such, the index market will be traded by charts. Last week's lows (DOW at 29463, SPX at 3594 and NAZ at 12027) would trigger some profit taking if broken. Nonetheless, that is not likely to happen.
Probabilities favor the bulls this week but as a general rule of the market, when things look like there is nothing negative that is likely to happen, it is usually when negative things happen. It is not expected though.
OIL generated an indicative week, having closed on Friday above the 45.56 level that was the low weekly close from July 2017 until February 2020 and that when broken took Oil down to the $16 level (weekly close). Having closed above that level suggests that a failure signal has been given against the bears, meaning all the weakness seen the last 9 months has now been erased. It does need to be confirmed this Friday with another green weekly close as closing $.50 cents higher is not a clear statement. Nonetheless, this close was supported by fundamental news as OPEC met this past week and they did agree on increasing production slightly (500k barrels per day) and that news was a positive as it was feared it would be more than that. What this failure signal means is that Oil is now likely to trade in a $10 intraweek trading range between $40 and $50 until the new administration takes over on January 20th. On a weekly closing basis, Oil closed exactly in the middle of the projected trading range based on a weekly close between $43 and $49, meaning that for the next 7 weeks, trading the range is likely what will happen, and not any kind of clear direction of trend given. The downtrend is evidently over but no uptrend has begun.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have been hearing for several weeks that health stocks are the buy for 2021. I took a look at a list of about 10 healths stocks and across the board, it is evident that is where the interest is and has been for a few months. By the same token, most of the healths stocks that were recommended are high in cost (most over $200 per share) and as such, not prime candidates for potential profit versus risk, especially at the high prices seen now (versus where they were several months ago. Nonetheless, I did find one health stock that does meet the requirements of a good risk/reward ratio and high probability rating, if and when the stock gets down to the desired entry point. This is this week's mention.
FLGT Friday's Closing Price - 43.55
FLGT provides genetic testing services to physicians with clinically actionable diagnostic information. The stock started trading 4 years ago and for the first 42 months traded below $15. Nonetheless, in February of this year and likely because of the virus, the stock started moving to the upside with an intitial break up to 20.60, a fall back to $9 and a subsequent rally to 52.70, at which time a correction occurred back down to 26.03 at the end of August. Since then, the stock has been trading between $30 and $49, consolidating its gains and building a new support level from which to launch a resumption to the uptrend.
The 100-day MA, currently at 36.34, has proven to be extremely effective in offering support to the stock, given that it has been seen on 7 different occasions during the past year where it bas touched but buying (and a rally) occurred.
FLGT generated a green weekly close last week but the bulls failed to take out a recent intraweek resistance area at 48.85 with a rally last week to 47.79 and then a close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 40.50 than above last week's high. If that occurs (likely), once again the stock may get back down near to the MA line where it is a viable purchse.
Evidently, FLGT remains in a clear uptrend and as such, likely to move above the all-time high at 52.70 and the chart suggests that when that happens, a potential high of $75 could occur within a few months.
Purchases of FLGT around the $37 level and using a stop loss at 34.65 and having a minimum objective of 52.70 offers a 7-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2020, as of 11/1 Loss of $24,397 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for November per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
QQQ (short) $161 (1 day trades) AXP (short) $599 (3 day trade) PG (short) $156 (1 day trade) MSFT (short) $157 (1 day trades) CAT (short) $369 (3 day trades) BIDU (long) $ 96 MRNA (short) $371 (3 day trades)
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.
MRNA (long) $3270 Total Profit for November, per 100 shares and after commissions $7136 Closed out losing trades for November per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
MSFT (short) $335 (2 day trade)
NIO (short) $293 ( CAT (short) $48 (1 day trade) Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions. ORCL (short) $118 Total Loss for November, per 100 shares, including commissions $794 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 11/30
NONE
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
CRON (long) $1068
MRNA (long) $8640
RIO (long) $1640 ENG (short) $780 SRUTF (long) $2 Total $12130 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 11/30
NONE
Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
W (short) $1266 Total $22985 Status of trades for month of November per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtracted.
Loss of $4513
Status of account/portfolio for 2020, as of 10/31
Loss of $24,397 per 100 shares.
AU generated a green weekly close after 3 red closes in a row. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going below last week's low at 21.06 than above last week's high at 23.13. The bulls failed to make any kind of a statement given that on the weekly closing chart the stock remained below the pivotal resistance at 22.75 and even on the daily chart, the stock closed at 22.97 on Wednesday and slightly above the pivotal daily close resistance at 22.87 but then failed to confirm the potential failure signal against the bears, having closed on Friday at 22.13. As such and even though some of the selling interest has subsided, the bears maintain the edge if not control. The positive is that Gold seems to have found a bottom after having successfully tested its breakout level. As such, probabilities favor the bulls. Any daily close above 22.97 would now generate a buy signal that would suggest the correction is over. Any daily close below 20.77 would be a strong negative.
AXP generated another new 9-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 125.32 will be seen this week. The stock has appreciated in value 29% over the past 6 weeks without any fundamental change to the company and now finds itself in an overbought condition and facing stiff resistance a few dollars above. On a weekly closing basis, there is decent to even perhaps strong resistance at 127.96 (129.34 on an intraweek basis). The stock has not gone below a previous week's low for the past 6 weeks, meaning there is no established support anywhere close by. The nearest previously established intraweek support is found at 114.65 (minor) and then at 111.06 (minor to perhaps decent). The stock gapped up 5 weeks ago on the statement from Buffett that this stock was one of the chosen few in their portfolio. Such a statement is not necessarily a strong reason for the gap down at 98.64 to stay unclosed. As such, a break below 111.06 would likely bring about a drop down to close the gap. There is history of the stock trading repeatedly between 126.28 and 123.12 and as such, it is highly likely that will be the trading range seen this week. BTZI generated an inside week and a close in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning the outlook for this week is the same as given last week. Intraweek resistance is found at .05 and short term pivotal at .055. Midterm pivotal weekly close resistance is found at .066 that if broken would signal the bulls are back in control. On an intraweek basis, the pivotal resistance is found at .088. The .05 level has been important and pivotal since June 2019 on over 6 occasions, meaning that if the bulls can establish themselves above .05, the downtrend will be officially over. Inttraweek support is now found and is short-term pivotal at .035. Probabilities favor the bulls. CAT generated a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high last week and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 183.81 will be seen this week. Consensus of analyst's opinions give a price target of $175 with the low end being $122 and the high end being $228. With no resistance above, the $200 level has now become a psychological magnet. If the stock does go above last week's high, last week's low at 172.28 will become short-term pivotal support that if broken would likely bring about a drop to close a gap at 165.64. Probabilities favor the bulls. CNX did very little this week, if seen on a weekly closing basis, having closed $.035 cents below last week's close but still above the pivotal 9.37 weekly close level. Nonetheless, on an intraweek basis, the stock fell all the way down to 8.82 and if the stock is able to get above last week's high at 9.94, a successful retest of the recent low at 8.31 will occur. Given that the 8.31 low was a 14-week low, this retest of the low is needed/required to get the bulls back on board. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 9.94 than below last week's low. Resistance is found at 10.31 that if broken, would suggest a rally to 10.74-11.00 will occur. Probability favors the bulls. CRON generated a new 13-month weekly closing high and above a seemingly pivotal weekly close resistance at 8.55. The stock closed exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chance of going above last week's high at 9.15 or below last week's low at 8.10. By the same token, the stock did close 3 of the 5 trading days above the same daily close resistance at 8.55, and 2 of those days were Thursday and Friday, suggesting the bulls have the edge and further upside is to be seen. There is further daily close resistance at 9.10 but compared to 8.55, that level is minor resistance. A daily close above 9.10, should generate a rally up to the $10 demilitarized zone. Daily close support should now be found at 8.55. If broken, a drop down to the 6.60 level is likely to occur. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG generated a red weekly close and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 1.50 than above last week's high at 2.37. Nonetheless, the stock did generate a green daily close on Friday (the first after 6 days in a row of red daily closes), suggesting that the selling interest after nearly quadrupling in price the week before, has begun to fade. The 1.45 level remains pivotal as that is where the 11-year 5-point trendline that got broken to the upside is located. As such, if the stock drops down below last week's low, it is not likely to be by much. By the same token, a drop down to 1.45 to test the line is not absolutely needed as 1.50 is close enough, meaning that if the stock is able to get above 2.37 this week, the downside correction from the explosive high will be over and the bulls will begin buying anew. Either way, the probabilities favor the bulls as the breakout has now been confirmed and it is a major one. NEM had an inside week but did generated a green weekly close and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 60.61 than going below last week's low at 57.64. Like with Gold and AU, the green weekly close was not sufficient to generate a failure signal against the bears but did suggest the selling interest has abated somewhat. On a short-term negative note, Wednesday's daily close at 60.21 ended up being a successful retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 6.08, as it was followed by 2 red daily closes, meaning the bears still have the edge. Intraweek support is found at 58.29 that is likely to be seen but not necessarily broken. Any daily close above 60.21 would give a new buy signal as well as a failure signal against the bears. Any daily close below 56.87 would be a negative. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. QQQ generated a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 305.88 will be seen this week. There is no resistance above so the bulls have open air. Minor but short-term pivotal support is found at 300.35 and slightly more pivotal and more indicative support is found at 294.78. The key issue to watch now is the previous all-time daily closing high at 302.76 as a confirmed close below that level will tend to deflate the bull balloon. Probabilities favor the bulls. RIO went on a tear this week, having appreciated 12.4% in value and making another new 9+-year intraweek and weekly closing high. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 74.06 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the stock is reaching a level of decent intraweek and weekly close resistance 73.45 and 76.67 (74.27 on a weekly closing basis) that is unlikely to be broken, suggesting that consideration to taking profits should be given this week given the close on Friday at 73.92. By the same token, if the stock is able to get above 76.47, there is open air above until the $95-$96 level is reached. Probabilities favor the bulls but any failure to get above 76.47 this week, profits should be taken. SRUTF generated another uneventful week (5th in a row), having closed at .0395 on Friday. The last 5 weeks, the low weekly close has been .036 and the high weekly close has been .04, meaning there seems to be no interest at this time from neither the bulls nor the bears. There is intraweek support at .03 and pivotal at .025 and resistance is found at .049, at .0659 and long term pivotal at .080. For the past 31 weeks, with the exception of 2 weeks, the stock has been mainly stagnant in price. Nonetheless, the stock is in the Marijuana industry and if CRON generates a breakout this week (as the probabilities suggest), it could give the bulls some new ammunition to take the stock higher. W failed to follow through on the previous week's close near the high of the week and generated a red weekly close and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 236.26 will be seen this week. With all the indexes having made a new all-time high this past week, the red action on the stock is disappointing to the bulls. There is some intraweek support at 234.65, at 225.02 and at 221.09. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis, pivotal support is found at 234.66, which if broken would suggest a drop down to the 200-day MA, currently at 203.45 would likely occur. Pivotal daily close resistance is now found at 260.68 that if broken would lift the bearish bias presently seen. Probabilities favor the bears.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.81. 2) BTZI - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0439. 3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.63. 4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .039. 5) W - Averaged short at 86.61 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 239.35. 6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 182.21 7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 305.52. 8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 125.04. 9) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 22.13. 10) NEM - Averaged long at 60.742 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 59.44. 11) MRNA - Liquidated at 177.60. Purchased at 49.11. Profit on the trade of $12849 per 100 shares minus commissions. 12) RIO - Averaged long at 62.845 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 73.92. 13) CNX - Averaged long at 9.10 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.47. 14) MRNA - Day traded twice (once long and once short). Profit on the trades of $777 per 100 shares minus commissions. 15) CAT - Day traded short. Loss on the trade of $68 per 100 shares plus commissions.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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