Issue #715 ![]() Apr 18, 2021 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bulls Still in Full Control. More Upside Expected, but Limited in Nature.
DOW Friday closing price - 34200
The indexes continued their inexorable climb higher by making once again new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs and closing on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be made this week (DOW at 34256, SPX at 4191, and that at 14050). The earnings reports were all better than expected and the Housing Starts number strongly beat expectations and that added ammunition to the bull cause. The only negative report this past week was the CPI report (inflation) that came in higher than anticipated. Nonetheless, the bulls ignored the number after Fed Chief Powell re-iterated his commitment to low interest rates until such a time that the economy shows itself to be self-supporting without Fed help.
There are no possibly catalytic economic reports due out this week. On the earnings side, this week will be mostly about DOW stocks, starting with IBM on Monday after the close. NFLX reports Tuesday after the close. Nonetheless, almost all reports coming out have been better than expected and so far none of the big companies that are driving the market at this time, have shown any negative figures and that is likely to continue this quarter due to the stimulus program that has put extra money into the hands of the nation. As such, it is highly unlikely that this coming week will have any reports that are catalytically negative to the market. Further upside is expected to be seen, especially with no resistance above, not even psychological.
By the same token, the RSI number on both the DOW and the SPX has reached 70 (DOW at 73.57 and SPX 71.82) and over the past 3 years, anytime the number got above 70, some correction started within the following 1-3 weeks, suggesting that this rally may continue "a bit" from here but is likely to start stalling out and at some point over the next 3 weeks, a correction will begin. This scenario also matches up with the fact that during this bull-run to the upside, the first 3 weeks of earnings reports have helped the bulls but after that 3rd week is over, profit taking has occurred. I would venture to say, the same thing will be seen on this occasion. Let me give you some price content that may help determine how much more upside could be seen. In September 2018, the DOW hit the 70 mark on the RSI and that week the high was 26769. The following week the index generated an inside week and the week after, the index made a new high at 26951 (a .7% price appreciation) and the index generated a negative reversal week and dropped 19.8% in value over a period of 13 weeks. In January 2020, the RSI got up to 75.44 and the index saw a high of 29373 and 5 weeks later rallied up to 29579 and then collapsed to 18213. Of course, this correction was likely caused by the pandemic so not all the indicative of what is happening now. Nonetheless and to give this scenario more chart information, in February 2017, the RSI hit 75 and the index was trading at 20639 and the rally continued the next 2 weeks with the RSI moving up to 80 and the index moving up to 21169 (a rally of 2.6%) and then a correction of 3.8% occurred. This latter example is likely to be the most probable under the current conditions and it could mean the DOW could rally up to 34880 and then a correction down to 33554. Either way, the index is likely to rally up for another 2 weeks and then a correction of at least 3.8% occur.
As far as intraweek support is concerned at this time, the DOW shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 33545. The SPX shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 4120 and the NASDAQ shows minor but certainly more pivotal support at 13782. The NAZ continues to be the index the traders will watch the most for the next 2 weeks, given that it has pivotal support not too far below and the important earnings reports for the month will come out the following week.
For this week though, the probabilities continue to favor the bulls but only for a limited rally. The DOW for example, could get up another 300-400 points this week.
SILVER generated a second green weekly close but unlike Gold, the bulls did not generate any new buy signals. Silver did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 26.38 will be seen this week. Silver continues to trade in a clearly defined trading range between 24.70 and 26.47, which was the high and the low seen the last week of December and the first week of January. Other than a rally up to 28.29 that occurred in February, that has been the trading range the past 4 months. Evidently a weekly close above or below that trading range will generate further movement in the direction broken. On an intraweek basis, there is short-term resistance at 26.74 that if broken, would give the bulls ammunition for another $1 higher rally. Support is now found at 25.42 that if broken would weaken the rally. Probabilities favor the bulls this week, but on a limited basis.
OIL got positive fundamental news this past week in its weekly supply and demand report and the bulls were able to negate the bearish flag that had been painting a negative scenario for the past 4 weeks. The bearish formation was negated when oil got above the 62.27 high made 13 trading days ago. By the same token, the bulls had the opportunity to make a bull statement if they had been able to close above 64.00 or even a bit of a short term statement with a close above 63.05 but the close was 63.08, meaning that questions still surround the outlook for the short-term. A red close next Friday would suggest Oil will continue to trade sideways for the next few weeks. Intraweek resistance is found at 64.09 that if broken would give the bulls the short-term edge. By the same token, any daily close below 61.56 would give the edge back to the bears. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls.
DOLLAR generated another red weekly close and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 91.49 will be seen this week. The Dollar has fallen mainly because inflation is starting to rise. The Dollar is now near the first intraweek pivotal support level on this rally at 91.30. A break below 91.30 would open the door for a drop down to the next support level at 90.12. On a daily closing basis, the support is at 91.42 (Dollar closed on Friday at 91.56). Resistance is now found at 92.50. Probabilities do not favor support being broken this week before a rally back up to the 92.50 level occurs. Nonetheless, if support is broken, further downside will be seen and that will also help Gold. As such, this is a short-term pivotal week for both.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The overall outlook for the market has not changed so I have no new mentions this week. The indexes are expected to move high but sometime over the next 2 weeks a correction is likely to occur, meaning that this coming week is not likely to offer and good entry points in either direction, at least not in other stocks other than the held ones where I have mentioned those were shares can be added if desired entry points are reached, or on those that may reach upside objectives where profits can be taken. No "new" opportunities are likely to be found this week unless those companies that are reporting earnings this week surprise. If so, I will mention those on the message board.
The only mention I have this week was the one from the last 2 weeks that has not gotten to the desired entry point but does have a chance to get there this week.
MRGE Friday Closing Price - .42
MRGE is a stock a good friend of mine gave me last week. He is a fundamental trader who has a lot of connections with CEO's and the people-in-the know with many companies. Mirage Energy Corp. is a natural gas storage and pipeline company based in Texas, intends to construct a first-of-its-king massive underground natural gas storage facility with connecting bi-directional transmission pipeline to Mexico. This is something that has been planned for some time between the two countries with the only question is "when" it is going to get built. It has been stated that when it happens, the stock will be worth at least $2.50 (6 times higher than where it is trading now).
Chart-wise, MRGE was trading at .05 cents 10 months ago and then broke out to a high of .75 cents seen in November. The stock then dropped all the way down to the .19 cent level a few weeks later. Nonetheless, the stock over the past few months, and then also going back to last year, seems to be in a clearly defined and support trading range between .30 cents and .45 cents with the important fact that since the initial rally back in June of last week, the 200-day MA has been a brick wall support. During this period of time, the stock has gone down to that line on 3 occasions and the bears have not been able to break. With the fundamental picture being positive at this time, breaking that line seems an impossibility and that line is presently at .30 cents.
The chart of MRGE does suggest that this coming week a drop down near the desired entry point around .30 cents will occur, given that the stock closed green but near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .40 will be seen this week. This mention is more of a buy and hold mention than a trading mention, though trading between .30 and .45 cents can be done repeatedly and with some success.
Purchases of MRGE around the .30 cent level and using a stop loss at .21 cents and having at least a .50 cent objective will offer a 2-1 risk/reward ratio. Nonetheless, considering the fundamental outlook that when the pipeline is built, the stock would be valued at $2.50, the risk/reward ratio would then be 24-1. I do want to mention that getting down to the .30 cent level is far from a certainty or even a high probability. It is a hopeful entry point. The stock has shown support at the .40 cent level for the past 3 weeks and it might not go back down. In fact, the stock closed near the high of the week this past week and could actually begin to climb from here right away. As such, this stock can be chased a bit, especially since it is a fundamental buy and hold trade for the $2.40 cent objective. Certainly, buying it at .40 and looking at the .30 cent level not breaking and having a 2.40 objective, offers a 20-1 risk/reward ratio.
The person who told me about this company felt quite strongly about the probabilities of all of this happening. He is a person whose knowledge of the fundamentals I trust. He is not good at trading or picking chart entry points and often has found himself in a losing positions before he cashes in, but ultimately he has the fundamental and people-in-the-now knowledge that has turned into profits.
This mention is speculative (more so than I normally go for) as it is based on fundamental information rather than charts, though in this case the entry point is based on charts and defendable.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AAPL generated an additional green week as well as a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 135.00 will be seen this week. The stock has now reached the bottom of the mention's upside objective between 134.18 and 137.99 (closed on Wednesday at 134.43) and this means that the stock will need to be monitored closely for any weakness which would suggest the rally is over and a 2nd retest of the all-time high has occurred. The stop loss has now been raised to 131.56 but if 138.79 is reached and not broken, consideration should be given to taking profit as a correction is likely to occur. The company reports earnings on Apr 28th. Expectations are for $.99 and a year ago it was $2.55. The reason for the lower expectations (which really are not lower) is that there was a 4-1 split this year, meaning that the true expectations are for $3.96 (versus 2.55). If the earnings are higher, the stock should continue higher and make a new all-time high. In the meantime and during the next 9 trading days, the stock could correct lower and down to the $126 level and that is why consideration to taking profits this week if the stock gets up to the $137-$138 level should be done and then purchase the stock back around $126 before the report comes out, which by the way is the most likely scenario at this time. Probabilities favor the bulls at the beginning of the week but could favor the bears toward the end of the week. AU generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 22.51 will be seen this week, If that occurs, last week's low at 20.91 will become the required/needed retest of the double bottom at 19.55/19.64 and if the bulls are able to get above the pivotal intraweek resistance at 23.45, the chart will be fulfilled to the downside and the bulls will gain the edge for further upside. This Gold stock has been lagging all other Gold stocks and that is worrisome given that Gold is now at a resistance level that is pivotal and not likely broken at this time, meaning that if new weakness is seen, it will further weaken the chart. As such, the 23.45 level is very important this week. The bulls must break that level to have any hopes of stimulating further upside during the short-term and even if Gold goes back down. A break above 23.45 will run into further resistance between 23.70 and 24.67 that may stop the rally if Gold corrects back down. Nonetheless, getting above 23.45 will give the bulls a measure of safety even if Gold drops. Certainly a rally above 24.67 would be a bull statement, at least for the short term. Some support is now found at 22.03 and pivotal at 20.91 (last week's low). If 20.91 is broken, new selling interest will come in. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. BTZI had a wild and wooly week, having had a big trading range between .0706 and .149 (100% trading range). In the end, the stock closed at .1125 and slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high than below last week's low. If that does occur, a double bottom will be generated on the weekly intraweek chart. Already, that has occurred on the daily chart. Establishing a double bottom at the .07 level is considered fulfilling the downside objective of the correction and highly likely to generate a lot of new buying. In fact, it must be mentioned that prior to the last 3 days of this past week when the drop down to the .07 level occurred, the average volume per day was 1 million shares but on Thursday when the stock got down to the .07 cents, the volume increased to 6 million and on Friday when the rally to .140 occurred, the volume was 12+ million and that suggests that this reversal is not only valid but that there is "huge" interest in the stock at these low levels. One of the catalysts that did generate the rally was the announcement on Friday that the company would be accepting Doge Coin for payment from here on after. The company is now heavily invested in the hot crypto currency market and is one of the reasons more buying interest is occurring. There is one small hurdle that the bulls must overcome on Monday. The previous low daily close between February 16th and March 13th was the.11 cent level. The stock closed on Friday at .1125 and that did generate a failure signal against the bears. That failure signal must be confirmed on Monday by a close at .11 or higher (preferably higher). If the failure signal is confirmed, the bulls will start buying with more confidence and using that .11 daily close support level again. Intraweek resistance is found at .175 (.165 on a daily closing basis). If that is broken, a rally to test the high seen in March at .379 is likely to occur and likely to be broken thereafter. Probabilities do favor the bulls. CNX generated a red close at 13.72 and that suggests that a failure signal has been given as the previous multi-year high weekly close at 13.83. Nonetheless, a close $.11 cents below a pivotal level is not convincing enough to consider taking profits on the trade. By the same token, the stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 13.33 will be seen this week. Already, the previous intraweek low support at 13.40 was broken this past week and evidently, a second break of that level would be a difficult negative for the bulls to overcome. There is some additional support at 12.81 but if that level is reached, it will mean the stock has corrected 19.4% and if 12.81 is broken, it would mean the bull trend has changed to a bear trend. As such, the bulls need to support last week's low at 13.33 and if they can do that and rally above Wednesday's high at 14.38, the bulls will get a short term edge back. Simply stated, I really do not want to see 13.33 break. Unfortunately, probabilities favor that happening unless the 30% exception to that guideline occurs. The company reports earning on April 29th AM and they are expected to be better than last year. In researching the 13 analysts following the company, no one has them as a sell and most everyone has them in a trading range between $14 and $17. As such, it is unlikely that a drop down to 12.81 will occur and even less that level will be broken. I would venture to say that the stock will continue to trade mostly between 13.70 and 14.30 during the next 10 days. CRON generated another red weekly close and a new 14-week low, meaning that the stock has now corrected 50% from its high made 9 weeks ago (15.83 - 7.93). Nonetheless, on this occasion, the bulls were able to rally to close in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting an equal chance of going below last week's low at 7.93 than above last week's high at 8.72. The stock did close below 2 important weekly close support levels at 8.63 (previous high weekly close that when broken took the stock up to the $15 level) and below the 200-week MA (currently at 8.48). The break of these two levels will become negatively indicative if the bulls are unable to negate them next week but positively indicative if able to close above them next Friday. As such, the action this coming week is short-term pivotal. The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday, having made the low for the week on that day but then turning around to close green and on the high of the day, suggesting that on Monday the stock will go above Friday's high at 8.38. If that occurs, Friday's low at 7.93 will become a successful retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 7.78. Such a successful retest will be confirmed if the stock closes any day this week above 8.85. It is evident by the daily and weekly chart support levels and with no new negative fundamentals news, that the stock has reached an area where support will be found. Schumer (the majority leader of the Senate) said on Thursday that he will be introducing "soon" a bill to legalize Marijuana in the U.S. At such a time that he does introduce the bill, Marijuana stocks should rally. For now, the 8.85 level (on a daily closing basis) and 200-day MA at 7.78 (also on a daily closing basis) are the levels the traders will be watching. A confirmed break of either will give one side or the other the edge. ENG made a new 12-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 3.41 will be seen this week. The intraweek support at 3.61 was broken, as well as giving the 3rd failure signal, having closed now below the weekly closing high from 2009 at 5.60, the weekly closing high at 5.00 from 2011, and the weekly closing high at 3.84 from 2014. All of these levels were broken to the upside on the rally up to 9.40. The stock has now corrected 74% from its high and all of this without any negative change of fundamentals. The next weekly close support level is at 2.88 (from the breakout in 2017) but this one has some previous intraweek support at 2.75 that should hold given that nothing fundamentally negative has occurred. Other than the break of 5.00, which also had a previous low weekly close support at the same price (from 2007), there has been no other support broken that also had a previous intraweek or weekly closing low support, suggesting that the stock is now within a 20% drop ($.69 cents) from what should be strong support. The only thing that has changed with this unexpected drop is that the 5.00-5.60 level has now become decent intraweek resistance that will need some positive fundamental news to break above. The company does not report earnings for another 8 weeks so the probabilities now favor a trading range between 2.75 and 5.12 during this time frame, unless some new contract is signed before the earnings report comes out (possible). The volume of trading is down strongly (the 2nd lowest weekly volume since November 2nd when the initial breakout occurred) and that suggests that the bear interest is very low though it also shows that the buying interest is not there yet. Based on the charts, I would venture to say that the stock will continue lower but some buying interest is likely to start being seen. A rally back up to the $5 level is likely to be seen sometime over the next 4 weeks. NEM generated a new 22-week intraweek high and a new 24-week weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 65.87 will be seen this week. The stock gave a new buy signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday above 62.79. The weekly chart shows no resistance above until the 66.71 (minor) and at 68.14 (decent to even perhaps strong). On an intraweek basis, there is pivotal resistance at 68.45 that if broken, would suggest the previous all-time intraweek high from 71.54 (from 2011) would be tested. If broken, the all-time high at 72.22 (seen in August) would be tested and likely broken. The probabilities do not favor that happening though if the stock generates another "weekly gap" up, then the probabilities would favor a new all-time high being made. Intraweek support will now be found at 62.65. I will be considering (and likely to do it) getting out at or above 66.71 and consider starting to buy some of those positions back around the 62.65 level but more around the $59 level when the gap at 59.02 is closed. I have a lot of positions and at these prices I do want to take profits and look to buy lower, especially since the stock will have rallied over 20% from its recent lows and Gold is not likely to go much higher without another small correction. Probabilities favor the bulls at the beginning of the week. PGEN generated a positive reversal week, having gone below last week's low and then above last week's high and then closing green. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.96 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's low at 6.68 will become a successful needed/required retest of the 17-week low at 6.53 seen 4 weeks ago. On a weekly closing basis though, the bulls failed to negate the break of support as well as the failure signal against the bears when the stock closed on Friday at 7.49, which is still below the previous high weekly close breakout at 7.73 and the weekly close support at 7.81, meaning that even though much has been done to set a bottom to this correction, it is still not set. The stock did generate a negative reversal on Friday, having made a new 17-day intraweek high and then closing red and on the low of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week on Monday will be below Friday's low at 7.32. If that does occur but then the stock recovers thereafter, it will be seen as the needed/required retest of the recent successful retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 6.57. Intraweek support is found at 7.31 and stronger at 7.00. The chart does suggest that 90% of the required base building before a new attempt to break the 200-week MA above has occurred and if all of this happens this week and the stock closes next Friday above 7.81, the correction will be officially over and the bulls will have the edge again. Probabilities favor the bulls. RIO appreciated 8% in value from low to high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 85.16 will be seen this week. The stock did not have any established resistance this past week that could have stopped the rally but will likely run up against a resistance level this week at 86.90 that is important and likely pivotal for the short term. A break above that level will suggest that the 12-year high at 92.85 seen 7 weeks ago will be tested and possibly broken as the weekly close breakout at $74 has been successfully tested, meaning the uptrend might resume. Nonetheless, the company has set no date for its next earnings report and that means that the traders will be depending mostly on the chart and there is clear chart evidence that the stock is likely to be in a $73.98-$91.88 trading range (based on weekly closes) for the time being and until new fundamentals come out. This does suggest that unless the stock is above the get above the 86.90 level this week, that profit taking should be considered. By the same token, if able to get above 86.90 but not above 92.85, taking profits should also be considered if that upside level is reached. Intraweek support is now found at 79.92. This is a tough stock to evaluate given the lack of fundamentals, the volatility seen and the gap ups and down seen consistently that are not magnets for closure. Leaning on the conservative prevention side is the best option, meaning that it makes more sense to take profits when obtained that not, especially with the stock $12 away from support and only $6 below resistance. Risk/reward ratio favors the bears. SNDL generated a new 11-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below .76 will be seen this week. The stock has broken support as well as given a failure signal and that means that the only support left below is the important 200-day MA, currently at .68 that is now more likely to be reached that not. By the same token, the stock has traded above that line for the last 3+ months and with no negative fundamental changes, that line should not be broken, especially since legalization of Marijuana is likely to be addressed very soon (see comment given in CRON). The stock did close on the high of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside and above Friday's high at .85. There is intraweek resistance at .95 that is not likely to be broken, but if broken, would suggest the move down is over. Based on the trading range seen few week, probabilities favor the stock trading between .95 and .72 this coming week. Adding shares around the.68 cent level should be considered, given that the probabilities and risk/reward ratios will strongly favor the bulls at that price. SRUTF generated at chart oriented week, having taken a spike down on Thursday to the 200-day MA, currently at .45, with a low at .425 and then going above Thursday's high at .049 and generating a green weekly close. The stock did have an inside week, meaning that nothing was accomplished on the weekly chart other than a green weekly close but the action seen on the daily chart was indicative of continuing strength. The weekly close resistance at .0523 and at .0585 remain in place, meaning that the stock continues to see appreciation in value and support but only on a limited basis. By the same token, this type of action has continued for several weeks, suggesting that ultimately the breakout will occur unless some negative news comes out (unlikely). The other stocks in the Cannabis industry have now reached levels of support that are unlikely to be broken, meaning that a breakout in this stock is likely to happen sooner than later. There is a new daily close support level at .048 that should no longer be broken. Any daily close above .0585 would be a breakout. Probabilities favor the bulls. ZLAB generated a strong spike up week after the company received positive clinical trial results on one of its cancer drugs. The stock rallied 26% from low to high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 168.95 will be seen this week. The stock gapped up and if followed any day this week with another gap up, it would suggest that the all-time high at 193.54 would be broken. If no gap up occurs, then the minor resistance around the $170-$171 level is likely to hold up and a correction back down to test (or close) the gap made this past week between 132.30 and 145.92 will likely occur. The pivot point for both scenarios is the $150-$154 level, meaning that if the $150 level is broken, a drop down to at least 145.92 will occur. I do not know how fundamentally strong the news that came out this past week is but the action on the chart is clear. If the stock can establish itself above the $171 level the probabilities will favor the bulls. Below the $150 level the probabilities will favor the bears. I am "likely" to take profits around the $170 level is no new gap up occurs.
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1) SNDL - Purchased at .94. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .846. 2) PGEN - Averaged long at 7.506 (3 mentions). Stop close only at 6.45. Stock closed on Friday at 7.49. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0515. 4) BTZI - Purchased at .0713. Averaged long at .1054 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .1125. 5) AAPL - Averaged long at 119.97 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 131.56. Stock closed on Friday at 134.16. 6) ZLAB - Averaged long at 131.925 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 164.29. 7) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 22.44. 8) NEM - Averaged long at 61.08 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 65.41. 9) CNX - Averaged long at 10.876 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 12.69 (weekly. Stock closed on Friday at 13.72. 10) RIO - Purchased at 76.15. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 84.79. 11) ZLAB - Purchased at 125.77. Liquidated at 154.75. Profit on the trade of $2898 per 100 shares. 12) ENG - Averaged long at 4.92 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.49.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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