AU generated a new 10-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 19.93 is expected to be seen. The stock has broken all supports built during the rally the past 10-month and there is open air below to the $18 level on the weekly chart. Nonetheless and going back 8 years, there is some weekly close support at 19.36 that is likely to be reached, especially since there is an open gap on the intraweek chart at 19.44 that is now a magnet to be reached. The outlook for the stock will be affected by what Gold does and Gold is expected to move lower but not all that much, meaning that the stock could do the same (reach the gap at 19.44 and move back up). Nonetheless, this break of support has changed the chart for the short and midterm and has made the 23.85 level a decent resistance that is unlikely to be broken for weeks or even months, much like the $1800 level in Gold. Probabilities favor the bears but likely only for a small move down from Friday's close.

CNX generated a red weekly close that made the previous week's close at 13.73 into a successful retest of the previous 2-year high weekly close at 13.83. The stock also closed on Friday below the most recent low weekly close at 12.67, having closed on Friday at 12.61. Nonetheless, the stock remains above the weekly close breakout point at 12.00, as well as above the 200-week MA, currently at 11.49, meaning that as of this writing, the stock remains in a breakout with probabilities continuing to favor the bulls for the mid to long term outlook. By the same token, the action seen this past week suggests that for the short-term, the bears have the edge with one of the two levels mentioned above as the objective of this move down. Short-term pivotal intraweek support is found at 12.43 that if broken will trigger the outlook mentioned above but if not broken, could negate the short-term outlook. Probabilities do favor the bears for this week.

ENG continued its first correction downward after the 900%+ rally that it experience from November to January, having closed at 5.14, which is a 33.5% from its 11-year high weekly close at 7.72. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.51 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, the stock closed at the major low weekly close from 2007 at 5.19, suggesting that if the breakout was "for real" (likely) that next week the stock will generate a green weekly close. This $5 area proved to be an important pivot point in 2007, in 2009 and again in 2011 and given that it is also an important psychological support, it is expected to hold up as the break out seen broke all resistance levels, meaning that the fundamental picture has changed to positive (from the negative one seen for the past 11 years. There is some minor but likely psychologically important daily close support at 4.34 that if broken would throw a big question mark on the rally. Nonetheless, with the probabilities of the stock getting below last week's low at 4.51 this week, the 4.34 level is a decent probability of being reached. I will look to add positions there if reached. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FNV made a new 10-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 106.75 is expected to be seen this week. The Fibonacci number that was used to purchase the stock this past week has now been debunked and no longer in play. There is quite a bit of support at the $100 demilitarized zone, suggesting that level will not be broken but with only minor intraweek support at 103.21 that has very little strength to stop the selling, probabilities do favor a drop down to the $100 level. Resistance will now be found at 114.75 and decent at the $121/$122 level. As such, the chart suggests the stock will trade between the $100 and $120 level for the next few weeks if not couple of months. For this week, the stock might see a trading range between $103 and $111. I do plan to liquidate the positions if the $111 level is reached this week and purchase them back the following week around the $100 level. Probabilities favor the bears.

FPRX generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3+-year high at 26.25 and then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 21.88 will be seen this week. It bears mentioning that the upside objective of this buy mention is the 27.83 level and with all the selling seen this week across the board, it was not unexpected that some profit was taken as the stock nears that level. On a short-term negative note, the stock also gave a failure signal on the daily closing chart, having closed on Friday below the previous high daily close at 22.43 (closed at 22.23) and if that is confirmed with another close below that level on Monday, a drop down to the $20 will likely be seen. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 19.03, which if broken would negate further upside to the $27 level for the short term. Any rally back up to the 24.70 would be an opportunity to consider taking profits and re-buying around the $20 level. Probabilities favor the bears.

NEM made a new 10-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 54.18 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and unlike AU and FNV, the stock still shows intraweek support of consequence below at 53.16 and at 52.33. In addition, the previous multi-year weekly closing high seen 1-year ago is at 52.35, meaning that if Gold does what it is expected to do (see above), this stock will not break all of its support and continue to be the best of the Gold stocks held. By the same token, a drop down to the low $52's is expected to be seen, meaning another +$2 drop. The stock is now showing 7 weeks in a row of red weekly closes. In the last 5 years, only once has that happened and on that occasion it was 8 weeks in a row and the last week was a minor trading range, which was then followed by a 15-week rally and an 18% appreciation in value. If that same thing happens now and from 52.35, it would mean the upside objective would be 61.77, to be reached within 3-4 months. Probabilities favor the bears this week but the stock will then likely turn around and generate a midterm rally.

PGEN generated a green weekly close and a small buy signal as well, having closed above the most recent (but minor) weekly close resistance at 8.33 (closed at 8.44). In addition, the green weekly close made the previous weeks close at 7.81 into a successful retest of the weekly close breakout at 7.73 that occurred 14 weeks ago. Such a retest is always necessary to occur when the fundamental picture has not yet changed tangibly. In addition, the retest was also a must-to-occur when the bulls failed to break above the 200-week MA, currently at 10.23, after 3 weeks in a row of trying. This successful retest now suggest a second attempt to break the line is to occur. The stock did close very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 7.75 than above last week's high at 9.33. This is probably because the market overall showed weakness last week. A break below the previous week's low at 7.64 would be a short-term negative. A break above last week's high at 9.33 would virtually insure that the $10 demilitarized zone will be tested. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

SRUTF made a new 15-day low and did get down to .039. Nonetheless and on Friday, the bulls were able to rally the stock enough to close above the 4-month weekly close breakout point at .0423 (closed at .0447), meaning that no failure signal was given. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting some further downside below last week's low at .039 is expected to be seen this week. It is important to note that when the breakout occurred, the weekly volume spiked up from an average of 5 million to 13 million and yet last week's volume was only 2 million, which is less than the average and suggests this drop is not seeing participation from the bears and therefore not likely to continue to take the stock down. Intraweek support is found at .0332 and resistance at .0515. Whichever gets broken, the bears or the bulls will gain the edge. Probabilities favor a green close next Friday.

XOM made a new 52-week intraweek and weekly closing high but then fell back to close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 52.59 than above last week's high at 57.25. If that occurs, last week's rally will likely become a spike up rally top and a correction would likely start. It is important to note 2 things - 1) the gap down on the weekly chart from February 2020 from 58.79 to 57.80 was not closed and remains a bearish sign and 2) the stock is showing to likely be in a channel using the two lows seen this past year at 30.11 and at 31.11 and the high seen in June at 55.36. If the stock goes below last week's low this week (likely), the channel will be formed and that would suggest the stock would embark on a move down to the channel over the next 4-6 months with a possible downside target of as much as 32.11 (or something close to that). The rally to this level has been mostly straight up and few support levels have been built. Using the weekly chart, the closest support is at 44.29. The daily chart does show some minor support at 51.62 that also represents a recent runaway gap, meaning that if the stock gets down to 50.71, the breakaway gap at 48.38 would then be targeted. To the upside, resistance is 55.36 and the stock did gap down on Friday from 55.35, suggesting the stock will get up to 55.36 this week. Based on the fact that the entire market seems poised for more downside, I will be looking to add shorts at that level and continue to use a stop loss at the weekly gap area at 58.79. Probabilities favor the bears.