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Issue #710 
Mar 7, 2021 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| NASDAQ Confirmed Correction is Occurring!
DOW Friday closing price - 31496
The reverse dichotomy between the DOW and the NASDAQ continued with the DOW advancing 1.8% from last week's close, as well as making a new all-time weekly closing high and the NASDAQ dropping 2.1% from last week's close and now finding itself 8.4% below its all-time high weekly close. This is all because an end to the economic woes from the pandemic are now on the horizon with normalcy to the economy likely returning by the beginning of summer.
Nonetheless, the new all-time high weekly close in the DOW is not yet meaningful that further upside is to come given that the index closed only 4 points above the previous all-time high weekly close and a red close next Friday would be seen as a double top. In addition, the NASDAQ generated a sell signal on Friday, having closed below a pivotal weekly close support at 12998 and further downside is expected to be seen, with the previous all-time weekly closing high at 11695 as the target, meaning another 9.5% drop. It is highly unlikely that the DOW could continue higher if the NASDAQ has corrected 17.5 from its all-time high, suggesting that the DOW will close red this coming Friday and a double top created.
The 2 most important reports for the month came out last week (ISM Index and Jobs) and they both beat expectations by highly unexpected margins and yet, the bulls were unable to generate further inroads to the uptrend. When good news fails to move the index market, it does suggest all the good news possible is already factored into the market and a time to sell.
Adding to all of this was the SPX which failed to negate the failure signal given last week of the "previous" all-time weekly closing high having closed on Friday at 3841 and the previous all-time weekly closing high was 3841 as well. If a red close occurs this coming Friday, a successful retest of the all-time high as well as the previous all-time high will have occurred and that would be a powerful reason for the bears to get involved in a strong way.
There are no economic reports of consequence scheduled for the week. The only thing that could be a catalyst is the Stimulus program for $1.9
Trillion that did pass this weekend and could cause the indexes to spike up on Monday. The wage hike provision was not included. which could have caused the indexes to react negatively. If the indexes do spike up on Monday, it is likely to be temporary (perhaps only for a few hours), given that passing of the Stimulus was factored into the prices and there were no new suprises. If the indexes do spike up and the DOW makes a new all-time intraweek high above the 32009 intraweek high, it might be indicative. Nonetheless, the probabilities do not favor that occurring and the attention will then likely shift to the cost of the Stimulus and the debt incurred (and how to pay for it) and with nothing else on the table to generate new positive anticipation for the immediate future, any failure here would generate a lot of profit taking and new selling interest.
To the upside and in the DOW there is intraweek resistance at the recent all-time intraweek high at 32009. On a daily closing basis, resistance is found at 31613 and at 31961. I doubt the former will be broken and highly doubt the latter will be broken. The DOW represents the "meat and potatoes" of the market and not an index where bullish speculation normally exists due to the fact that all the companies in the index are established and show very little ability to expand their profit base on a month-to-month basis above what has been shown repeatedly in the past. This is especially true in the situation where the index is now (at all-time highs) where already profits are likely factored into the price above what the companies are showing presently. In the SPX and on an intraweek basis, there is resistance at 3914, at 3928 and at the all-time high at 3950. The same is true on a daily closing basis. It is highly unlikely that all 3 resistance levels above will be broken, especially with no new positive news possible. The previous all-time high weekly close at 3841 is also added to these 3 resistance levels above, making it a huge (and likely impossible) task for the bulls to break. In the NASDAQ, resistance on a daily and weekly closing basis is found at 12998 and that is only to negate the break of that previous low daily/weekly close support. Above that level, there is minor intraweek resistance at 13208, and then the same 3 resistances as are found in the SPX at 13596 (decent), at 13985 (minor) and at the all-time high at 14175. There is one additional negative to the NASDAQ in that there is a breakaway and runaway gap formation that was confirmed when the 12985 level was broken. In simple words and from a chart basis, it would likely take a miraculous fundamental catalyst to allow the bulls to overcome all these negatives.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis in the DOW there is support at 30911 and pivotal at last week's low at 30547. In the SPX there is support at 3789 and pivotal at last week's low in conjunction with a previous low between 3714 and 3723. In the NASDAQ there is support at 12543 and then pivotal at last week's low at 12397.
A break of the supports in all 3 indexes would offer a downside target of the previous all-time high weekly close. In the DOW at 29398, in the SPX at 3508 and in the NASDAQ at 11695. Nonetheless, it must be mentioned that the DOW and the SPX still have pivotal weekly close support levels that must be broken before the previous all-time highs become a probability of reaching. In the DOW it is at 29982 and in the SPX it is at 3714.
Evidently the DOW is the index to watch this week simply because all the buying interest is located there right now. The index closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 31668 is expected to be seen this week. This means that the only resistance level above on an intraweek basis is the all-time high at 32009. As such, the daily close resistance at 33613 will be very important. That is 167 points above Friday's close, meaning that is all the index can go up this week based on the daily close. Then again, if the bulls are unable to take the index above last week's high, it will be indicative of weakness to begin with.
Probabilities favor the bears in my opinion.
SILVER generated a failure signal to the recent short term uptrend, having closed below the 6-month high weekly close at 26.42 (closed at 25.28). This close suggests that Silver will be trading sideways for the next 4-8 weeks or until some new fundamental news comes out. Silver closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 24.84 is expected to be seen. There is short term intraweek pivotal support at 24.04 that if broken would likely take it down to the next intraweek support at 23.09. If 24.04 holds, it will mean that Silver remains stronger than Gold and keep the door open for new highs to be made before Gold breaks above $1800. If Silver breaks 24.04 it will do the same as Gold and likely trade sideways for 4-8 weeks or maybe longer. Monday's daily close is important for the short-term. A green close on Monday will suggest a rally back up to the 27.85 level. A red close on Monday will probably mean a drop down to the $23 level. Probabilities are evenly matched this week.
OIL closed above 64.00 today and that is a bit of a game changer. Game changer from the point of view that the last 18 months of the downtrend has now been erased convincingly. Nonetheless and in looking at the chart with "new" eyes, I have seen that the close today is at another but short-term pivotal level. Back in January 2019 through August 2019, this level was a pivot point between 59.20 and 74.34 (based on weekly closes). The first time it got up to this level was up to 66.14 and what then followed was a drop down to 59.20. That was then followed by a rally back up to 65.88, which was then followed by a drop down to 62.06. Then Oil broke that level and got up to 71.28, then a drop down to 65.06, a rally to 73.80, then a drop down to 65.91, a rally then to 74.34 and then the breakdown that ultimately took oil to the low levels seen this past year. This action occurred over a period of 7 months. It also has to be mentioned that in looking at this rally from a weekly close point of view, this rally has been straight up from 35.79 to today's close at 66.26. Oil is therefore overbought and overdone but the bulls have now accomplished what they wanted and needed to accomplish and that is what was needed to get rid of the bear tag and turn oil back into the trading vehicle it was before. Simply stated and at these levels, Oil is back to being a trading vehicle and not a trending vehicle. As such, I do expect oil to head lower from here back down to the $59 level and to somewhat duplicate the action mentioned above. This does mean that ultimately Oil will head back up to the $70+ level but not likely now. I have heard quite a few fundamental analysts say that the target is the $70-$72 level. Given all that has happened over the past two years from a fundamental point of view, I would say that getting back up to the $74 will not occur. Oil was a bit more bullish 2 years ago than now, meaning it is likely to fall short of reaching 74.34. Probabilities favor the bears this weeki
DOLLAR generated a new 4-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 92.19 will be seen this week. There is decent weekly close resistance at this level but it is old (from 2006) and therefore not likely being used by the traders. This will be cleared up (as far as it being resistance) if it closes red next Friday. The Dollar did break the recent weekly close resistance at 91.04 and also closed above a previous low weekly close resistance at 91.35, meaning that the recent downtrend is now over. This does not mean an uptrend has begun but it does mean that the recent low weekly close at 89.94 will require a new fundamental change to break. In fact, the 91.35 level should now be a decent weekly close support. To the upside, there is indicative weekly close resistance between 92.37 and 92.76 that if broken would like mean a rally up to 93.68 would be seen. Any weekly close below 91.04 would negate the gains. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Based on everything that has happened the past 4 weeks and also based on the fact that weekly closes are now starting to work again as they did previous before Trump became president, it seems highly probable that trading is starting to return to normalcy, at least as far as closes are concerned. It also means that all stocks that have been involved in the crazy trading seen recently (such as the huge rallies in Tech Stocks and the recent recovery of stocks that were strongly depressed because of the economic ills of the pandemic) should be put aside and attention given to clearly defined charts that offer dependable risk/reward ratios and that are in industries that are likely to do well the rest of the year (such as Health Stocks and Consumer industry stocks). In addition, stocks that may benefit from a Biden/Harris presidency, such as Cannabis stocik should also be played. Simply stated, I am now going to key on stocks with higher probability ratings, dependable support and resistance levels, and less volatility involved.
The first two mentions are in Cannabis Stocks. You may decide to trade only one of the two but I will give you both given that these 2 companies are among the leaders in the industry. The other two mentions are in Health Care stocks, which is an industry that is supposed to be very strong this year.
All mentions require that a desired entry point be reached before getting involved (not presently trading at that level). As such, the mentions will not only be good for this week but for next, given that it might take that much time to reach the desired entry point.
CRON - Friday Closing Price - 9.48
CRON recently broke a multi-month weekly close resistance level at 8.55/8.63 and generated a rally up to the 15.83 level, reached 5 weeks ago. Since then, the stock has been correcting back down and last week got all the way back down to 8.66 (ding, ding, ding). The bulls rallied the stock to close at 9.48. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below 8.66 is expected to be seen. Evidently the door is still open for a lower close than last week's close as the breakout level at 8.63 was tested intraweek but in reality it is a weekly close breakout, meaning there is still a decent probability of the stock closing lower next Friday. By the same token, It can be said that no further downside is to come as the stock has corrected 46% from the highs and the $10 level must be considered decent psychological support. Either way, this is a level that needs to be considered as a decent entry point into a stock in an industry that should see gains this year.
CRON does have a secondary breakout level on the daily closing chart at 8.85 that is likely to be seen but not likely to be broken, meaning that (or around that price) will be the desired entry point into the trade.
To the downside, CRON has pivotal intraweek support at 6.90 that is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at 7.38. As such, 6.80 will be the stop loss point of the mention. I do want to mention that the rally was so strong and above previously established resistance levels that the gap to the upside that is between 7.78 and 8.11 "should not" be closed, meaning that if closed, consideration can be given to liquidating the positions if the stock is not doing what it should.
To the upside, CRON has no intraweek resistance until the 10.56 level is reached, meaning that on a recovery that would be the first level likely to be reached. Nonetheless, that is old resistance from over a year ago and already broken, so the probability of it holding up on a rally is low. The next resistance level is at 11.75 and it is recent and therefore valid resistance. It is minor to possibly decent at best. Above that level there is open air until the 13.01 area is reached. Probable target of this mention though, is the 14.00-14.70 level as stronger resistance is found there.
The Cannabis industry is likely to be supported strongly by the Biden administration the next 4 years. Recently nothing has been done by the administration due to the pressing problems of the pandemic as well as of the Stimulus and infrastructure but it is likely that before the end of the year and perhaps as early as the end of summer, the legalization of Cannabis will be addressed and at that point, this stock could go substantially higher. For now, a trading range between $10 and $14/$15 is likely to be seen. With the stock trading below the $10 level, it is likely a good purchase.
Purchases of CRON around the $9 level and using a stop loss at 6.90 and having a 14.70 objective will offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio. My probability rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
TLRY Friday Closing Price - 21.63
TLRY is considered to be the biggest company in the Cannabis Industry but last year experienced some big losses as well as economic problems that caused the stock to drop from a high of $300 (seen Sep 2018) to the low seen exactly 51-weeks ago at 2.43. Between November 2019 and January 21, the stock was in the process of building a rounded bottom (considered to be the strongest support foundation) and in January, the stock broke above that level of resistance at 19.37/19.70 and promptly (4 weeks later) rallied all the way up to $67 (intraweek high). Upon reaching that level, profit taking occurred and the stock has now dropped 73% in price to a low last week at 18.23 and a weekly close at 21.67.
TLRY closed at 21.67 on Friday and that close is low enough that if a green close is seen next Friday, that it will be considered a successful retest of the breakout level at 19.70. Nonetheless, the stock did generate a negative reversal week last week (higher high and lower low than the previous week's trading range and a red weekly close) and in the lower half of the week trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 18.23 will be seen this week, and with a close nearer to the 19.70 level than what was seen last week. Either way, the chart suggests that the stock is a purchase this week with the only question mark being "where".
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, TLRY shows pivotal intraweek support at 15.60 that if broken, would negate the entire rally. The stock did close in the upper half of Friday's trading range, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside and above Friday's high at 23.22 and above that level there is no intraweek resistance until 25.33. Nonetheless, chasing the stock after a negative reversal week is not a good strategy, meaning that waiting for at least the 19.70 level to be seen is the thing to do and given that the stock had a negative reversal week, the best entry point would likely be around the $18 level.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, TLRY shows pivotal resistance at 29.60 that if broken would suggest the downside correction is over. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 33.65 and a bit stronger at 51.03, which will be the objective of this mention. It does need to be mentioned that on a weekly closing basis, there is pivotal resistance at 29.60 that if broken would likely thrust the stock up to the $50 level. Nonetheless, it is clearly defined and minor to decent resistance, which does mean that chasing the stock is not a good option.
Purchases of TLRY around the $19.70 level and using a stop loss at 15.50 and having a $50 objective will offer a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. Using the $30 objective, the trade offers at 2.5-1 risk/reward ratio. My probability rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
ZLAB Friday Closing Price - 137.25
ZLAB is an innovative, research-based commercial stage biopharmaceutical company based in China. Over the past 29 months, the stock has rallied from a low of 14.29 to its recent high 7 weeks ago at 193.54. The stock is seeing its first major correction since its inception 4 years ago. The previous big correction was 18.8% and this correction has now been so far 33.5%. Nonetheless, there has been no change of fundamentals, meaning that this is simply a major correction in a strong bull market. Given that the Chinese are likely to see better results in their stock market this year over our results, getting involved in a Chinese Pharma company makes sense.
ZLAB closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 128.62 will be seen this week. Given that there is some short-term pivotal intraweek support at 124.42, the risk/reward ratio on this trade is excellent even though the 124.42 level has not yet been established with previous support built at that location. Nonetheless, with the kind of appreciation seen over the past 29 months (1350% appreciation), following the trend makes sense.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, ZLAB show no resistance above until 187.46. Further pivotal resistance is found at the all-time high at 193.54. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the stock shows support 127.09 and pivotal at 124.42.
The biggest problem with this trade is finding a good entry point into the trade. The close in ZLAB in the lower half of the week's trading range does suggest a lower low that last week's low at 128.62 but then again, the stock generated a positive reversal day on Friday and a close near the high of the week, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside above Friday's high at 139.97. The situation does not suggest chasing the stock is an option. One additional positive for the bulls and for the low of the correction already having been built is that the stock got down to the 100-day MA, currently at 129.16 on Friday and that has been a line that has stood up well for the last 2 years and only breaking the line very slightly on 4 of the 6 occasions and not having it broken the last 2 times it was touched. Nonetheless, there is a good chance the line may be seen again before going back up, meaning that the desired entry point will be around the $129 level.
Upside objective will not be the stock resuming the uptrend and making new all-time high as this correction might represent a high having been made. Nonetheless, making a new all-time high is still a viable possibility though. The upside objective will be a retest of the two most recent highs, meaning a rally back up to the $180 level.
Purchased of ZLAB around the $129 level and using a 124.32 stop loss and having a $180 objective will offer a 10-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on this trade is 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). Nonetheless, anytime you get a 10-1 risk/reward ratio on a trade, it is a must do.
NGM Friday Closing Price - 25.81
NGM is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that engages in the discovery and development of novel therapeutics for the treatment of cardio-metabolic, liver, oncologic, and ophthalmic diseases. The stock started trading 23 months ago at an opening IPO price of $15 and 6 months later got down as low as 8.81. Nonetheless, since then it has been mostly up with an all-time high made 10 weeks ago at 32.05. The previous all-time high weekly close made in June of last year was at 23.37 and a breakout above that level occurred in November and from which the all-time was made at the end of December. Since then, the stock has been on a corrective phase to test the previous all-time high weekly close, having made a low intraweek low at 24.65 7 weeks ago and again down to the same price last week.
NGM closed in the lower half of the week's trading range last week, suggesting further downside below 24.65 will be seen this week. If that occurs, the previous all-time high weekly close at 23.37 will likely be seen (tested), which would be an opportunity to buy as Health Care stocks this year are predicted to be one of the top two industries to invest in.
NGM has been appreciating at least 130% from its correction lows and making a new all-time high each time. The last appreciation was 220%, meaning it is heating up. As such, if around the $23 level a bottom to this correction is found, it could offer a rally up to the $50 level.
To the upside, NGM shows minor resistance at 27.89, a bit stronger and slightly pivotal at 29.00 and short term pivotal at 30.75. Evidently, the all-time high at 32.05 is pivotal resistance that if broken, might thrust the stock to the $50 level. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, there is minor but likely pivotal support at 21.96, meaning that the stop loss will be placed at 21.65. It must be noted that the 200-day MA is currently at 21.81 and highly unlikely to be broken unless a negative change of fundamentals appears (unlikely).
Purchases of NGM between 23.67 and 24.00 and using a stop loss at 21.65 and having a 50.00 objective will offer an 11-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
| AG has fallen 26.7% from the high seen the previous week to last week's low. In addition, Silver has now shown that its buy-appeal has diminished. As such, I am highly likely to liquidate the positions this week as the action now suggests the stock will continue lower to the weekly close breakout level at 13.33 and even perhaps as low as 12.00. I was going to liquidate the positions on Friday but the stock closed on Friday near the high of the day, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 16.27 will be seen on Monday. In addition, the stock has shown 7 days in a row with lower highs than the previous day and that is now highly likely to stop on Monday. The closest intraweek resistance above is at 17.37 though there is resistance on the intraday chart at 16.79 from the 200 10-minute MA. As such, my finger will be on the trigger to liquidate the positions around 16.70. By the same token, if the stock can get above 17.37, I will hold the positions over for at least another day. AU generated a positive key reversal to the upside, having made a new 10-month intraweek low and then closing green and above the previous day's high. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 21.67 will be seen this week. This positive key reversal on a week where Gold continued lower and broke a pivotal support by a couple of dollars, strongly suggests that the stock's fundamental picture does not support these prices and also suggests that Gold is likely to turn around to the upside this week. There is minor intraweek resistance at 22.93 and then nothing until the 23.67/23.87 level is reached. On a daily closing basis, there is no resistance of consequence until 23.38/23.58 is reached. On a weekly closing basis, the 22.75 level is decent resistance and the 23.99 level pivotal. On a daily closing basis, a close now below 20.77 would once again weaken the chart and give the bears the edge again. Probabilities favor the bulls for at least a rally up to around 22.93. At that level, the action will begin to be indicative. BTZI had a wild and wooly week in which a drop back down to the $.07 level occurred. Just 3 weeks ago the stock was at $.379. It was a positive that the stock rallied all the way to that high given that it was a 3-year high and above 2 resistance levels of consequence. Such action does show that the stock does have fundamental value at higher prices than last week's correction low. Nonetheless, the stock did find itself on Friday temporarily below 2 levels of important weekly close support at .107 and at .135 and that certainly caused some panic selling to occur and worries that the breakout was only price manipulation. By the close on Friday though, and only in the last 23 minutes of trading, the bulls stepped in to close at the .135 level of support, meaning that the drop to .07 was not fundamentally supported and that the stock is now likely to head back up. It must be noted that the 200-week MA is currently at .16 and that the stock closed above that level for 2 weeks in a row, meaning that the break of that important resistance level has now been accomplished. This week's close did generate a failure signal against the bulls by closing below the MA line, but given that all failure signals need to be confirmed with a second close below the line, a close this Friday above .16 will negate the failure signal and cement the breakout and open the possibility of the stock non only going back to the recent high at .379 but breaking that level and going up to the next two resistance levels at .425 and at .50. In fact, it is even possible that the all-time high at $.929 will be tested at some point this year. The fundamentals on the company have changed to the positive from all sides (Cannabis industry heading up, the turn to robotics helping and the association with Bitcoin opening the door for much bigger things), meaning that even the all-time high is at risk of being broken this year. Probabilities favor the bulls. CNX generated a new 28-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 14.35 will be seen this week. The weekly close was only by $.07 cents so it is pivotal that another green weekly close occur next week to confirm the breakout but if that happens, a rally up to the next weekly close resistance at 14.34 is likely to occur. If that level is broken, it is open air to 15.56. Based on this new breakout, the 12.61 level on an intraweek basis becomes pivotal support, meaning the stop loss can now be raised to 12.51. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG made a new 8-week low and did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 3.61 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, the stock generated a positive reversal on Friday, having made the 3.61 low and then closing green and near the high of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside, above Friday's high at 4.43. There is resistance at 5.44 and pivotal at last week's high at 5.68. Evidently, if last week's high is broken, a lot of new buying will be seen given that just 6 weeks ago the stock was at 9.40 and all resistances going back 11 years were broken in the process. On a potential negative, the chart showed important weekly close support at 5.19 that was broken this past week. Then again, that support is 14-years old and not considered dependable because of its age and also the fact that all broken supports need to be confirmed in order to be considered a break, meaning that if the stock closes above 5.19 this Friday, this break will be a non-event. The high weekly close seen on this recent rally was 7.72 and the fact is that there is also no weekly close resistance found (though old as well) until the 7.98-8.43 level is concerned. As far as support is concerned, the stock did get down to the 100-day MA, currently at 3.55, and that line should hold up if the breakout was for real (probable). Further support of pivotal importance on a daily closing basis is at 2.84, which was the level from which the stock broke out of that generated the rally to 9.40. As such, purchasing the stock around last week's low at 3.61 and using a stop loss at 2.74 (based on a daily closing basis) and having an 8.00 objective (based on a weekly close) will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio. Probabilities favor the bulls. FNV generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 11-month intraweek low but then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 112.17 will be seen this week. There is no intraweek resistance of consequence until 122.65 is reached and even reaching that level will still keep the stock on a short-term downtrend, meaning that reaching that level is a decent probability as far as a rebound or correction upward to the downtrend is concerned. Last week's high is a minor resistance on the daily chart and there is another resistance of the same strength (minor) at 116.95. The chart is showing a gap between 119.13 and 108.03 that is a magnet at least for testing if not for closure. Evidently, a recovery rally in Gold is required for these upside objectives to be reached but Gold is expected to rally this week. A new low below last week's low 105.62 will further weaken the chart. Nonetheless, the stock did build a minor double bottom at that level, having gotten down to 105.62 on Monday and to 105.64 on Wednesday. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. FSLR has dropped 39.5% in value over the past 6 weeks, having dropped from a high of 112.50 to last week's low at 68.07. The reason for the drop was a lower than expected earnings report and a lowering of rating objectives from major rating companies (UBS from $110 to $85, MW from $110 to $85, JPM from $112 to $100 and GS from $81 to $69).On a chart basis, the stock did break an important and pivotal weekly close support level at $80. Given that several of the rating companies have the $85 as the downside objective, a rally back up to the $80 (based on a weekly close) is likely to be seen with a high potential of reaching on an intraweek basis, the 81.72 level. It does need to be mentioned for the future that the price of oil has gone up substantially, meaning that solar energy will now be more competitive, meaning that ultimately the stock is likely to get back to the $100 level of even higher. For now though, it is likely the stock will be trading between $70 and $80 for at least next few weeks if not couple of months. Probabilities do favor the bulls this week and though the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below 68.07 is expected to be seen, it is likely that this week will be an inside week. I do plan to get out (take profits) around $80 and trade the stock thereafter between $70 and $80. NEM generated an inside week but did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 57.39 will be seen this week. It is important to note that Gold did make a new multi-month low and the fact the stock did not, is a positive statement. This stock continues to be the strongest gold stock among the ones held. The weekly close was above the previous low weekly close at 54.79 that was broken last week with the close at 54.38. This means the break was negated and a possible double bottom created. There is no intraweek resistance above on the weekly chart until 62.29 is reached but on the weekly closing chart, there is minor resistance at 58.48. On the daily closing chart, any green close on Monday will generate a mini breakout that would open the door for a rally up to the 60.42 level. It is important to note that the 200-day MA is currently at 61.86 and if the 60.42 level of daily close resistance is broken, that would be the objective. A new daily close below 54.38 would strongly weaken the chart. Probabilities favor the bulls. PGEN had a wild week, having failed to go above the previous week's high and then falling and making a new 4-week low at 7.55 and coming within $.24 cents of the pivotal intraweek support at 7.31. Nonetheless, in the end, the stock rallied to close green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 9.09 will be seen this week. On a weekly closing basis, the stock closed $.01 cent above the previous weeks close, meaning that the action this past week was not meaningful. Pivotal resistance is found at 9.33 that if broken would give the bulls new ammunition and cause the stock to once again test the 200-week MA, currently at 10.17. Probabilities favor the bulls. SRUTF based on the weekly close, the week was uneventful with a close $.008 cents below the previous week's close. The stock has gotten back into a sideways and non-eventful trading range but at a higher price than seen the previous 14 weeks, meaning that the small gains obtained have not been given back. It must be noted though, that the Cannabis market has recently been under sell pressure as all the big stocks have dropped substantially in price (CRON has dropped 46% and TLRY has dropped 72%) meaning that SRUTF's sideways trend is actually a bullish sign. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at .067 and pivotal intraweek support is found at .032. Probabilities favor more of the same thing this week but in looking at the charts of the big companies, I do believe some movement to the upside will begin within the next 1-3 weeks.
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1) FPRX - Liquidated at 24.46. Averaged long at 15.8475. Profit on the trade of $3445 per 100 shares (4 mentions). 2) PGEN - Purchased at 8.10. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.45. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0443. 4) BTZI - Purchased at .125. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .135. 5) XOM - Covered shorts at 58.79. Shorted at 56.36. Loss on the trade of $243 per 100 shares. 6) FSLR - Purchased at 78.11 and at 73.63. Averaged long at 75.87 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 73.70 7) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.61. 8) NEM - Averaged long at 61.08 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 56.74. 9) CNX - Averaged long at 9.10 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 12.61. Stock closed on Friday at 13.93. 10) FNV - Averaged long at 119.206 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 105.52. Stock closed on Friday at 109.47. 11) AG - Purchased at 16.84. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 15.95. 12) ENG - Purchased at 4.80. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.31. 13) AXP - Shorted at 139.21. Covered short at 141.35. Loss on the trade of $214 per 100 shares. 14) FSLR - Purchased at 76.15. Liquidated at 75.75. Loss on the trade of $40 per 100 shares.
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