Issue #714
Apr 11, 2021
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls in Full Control. More Upside Expected, but Limited in Nature.

DOW Friday closing price - 33800
SPX Friday closing price - 4128
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 13845

All indexes made new all-time weekly closing highs and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 33810, SPX at 4129, and that at 13849) will be seen this week. The NASDAQ did not make a new intraweek high but is likely to do so as it closed only 24 points below that level. The DOW rose 2% last week, the SPX rose 2.7% and the NASDAQ rose 3.7%, meaning the dichotomy in favor of Tech stocks was seen again this week and that usually means that the traders are once again bullish on the overall market continuing higher across the board and not just "buying protective stocks".

Nonetheless, the action this past week was expected, though not perhaps with the strength shown as it was expected that further upside to the tune of 4% across the board would be seen, but over a period of a few weeks (not just over 1 week). The NASDAQ alone did most of that (3.7%) last week. Now, the 2nd quarter earnings reports begin and once again, information and data (not just momentum) will be the decisive factor. On Wednesday morning, GS, JPM, and WFC report, on Thursday it will be BAC and C, and on Friday it will be MS. These are all financial companies that will directly affect the SPX. Then again, the SPX is the bar by which everything has been measured by this past year as it is the financial market that has given reason for everything to rally. One word of caution though, all these financial companies are expected to report "much better earnings than last year" (GS for example, expected to report $8.93 vs last year at $3.11), meaning there is a far greater chance of disappointing than encouraging. With these high prices, the bulls must fully back up their expectations. Anything less than expected would likely cause a strong round of profit taking.

In addition to the earnings quarter beginning, there are 2 economic reports due out this week that have the ability to be catalytic if surprising. On Tuesday morning, the CPI number comes out and it is expected to be .5% (last month was .4%). Inflation is the only thing that has been causing some fear to be seen given that a rise of inflation at a rate higher than anticipated (or allowed by the Fed) will cause concerns about the possibility of interest rates rising. The Fed has stated that they don't foresee any possibility of interest rates rising until 2023 but if inflation starts to heat up, that would change. With no interest rate rise for 2 years factored into the prices of stocks, if that time frame is reduced, so are the earnings expected to be reduced as well. The other important economic report for the week is Retail Sales on Thursday. Last month it was a downward surprise when it came in -3% and a plus report was expected. The traders ignored that report and this month the number is expected to be +5%. If the number comes in lower, and especially if it comes in negative as last month, it would be a negative. As you can see by these economic reports, the same situation as seen in the earnings reports is in place. The onus is on the bulls. The bulls must show that the rally is being supported fundamentally and if not, profit taking is likely to occur.

With no resistance above, there are no levels that can be used by the bears to congregate at to mount an attack against further upside, meaning that if there are no negative surprises in the reports, the bulls will continue to move higher. This does mean though, that the traders will be paying attention to the levels of support below that could be technical "triggers" for a profit taking event to occur. In the DOW and on an intraweek basis, short-term pivotal support is found at 32980. In the SPX, short-term pivotal support is found at 3944 and in the NASDAQ there is no intraweek short-term pivotal support but on a daily closing basis, any close below 13270 would be short-term pivotal. Given that all indexes are far above those levels and none of them likely reachable this week, attention will turn to the intraday charts to determine whether the indexes will do sideways until the next set of more important reports come out the following week or whether the runaway freight train to the upside is to continue. In the DOW, the level to watch intraday is the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 33488. That line has not been broken to the downside in 10 days and if broken any day this week, it will put the index into a pause period where the uptrend will stop until the next positive catalyst occurs. In the SPX that line is at 4084, and in the NASDAQ it is at 13649. Keep in mind that this is the 10-minute MA and that means that these numbers will change (go higher) every 10 minutes, so these support levels will change as the week progresses.

With none of these reports or levels of support in play on Monday, the indexes should continue to move higher at the beginning of the week. Nonetheless and starting on Tuesday and the CPI report, things will start to depend on reports and momentum may stop. For right now, the probabilities favor the bulls given that everything seems to be progressing as anticipated. One thing to also keep an eye out for is the RSI (overbought/oversold oscillator). In the DOW it is presently at 66. Over the past 6 months, every time (4 times) it got up to the 70 level, a mini correction occurred. It is at 66 and therefore no imminent correction is in play but if it continues higher this week, by the end of the week that 70 number could be reached and a small pullback occur.


GOLD was able to generate a short-term buy signal, having broken above the daily and weekly close resistance at $1741. On a daily closing basis, it was done on Wednesday and that breakout was confirmed with 2 additional closes above the resistance on Thursday and Friday and on the weekly chart is was done on Friday with Gold having gotten down as low as $1731 on an intraday basis on that day but then the bulls fighting back to close at $1743. Gold did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above $1759 will be seen this week. There is absolutely no intraweek resistance above until $1769 (minor) is reached. Further minor resistance is found at $1774 and then open air until minor to decent at $1789. To the downside, minor support is found at $1716 and then decent at $1696. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SILVER generated a green week but unlike Gold, only generated a buy signal on the daily closing chart. In addition and on the same chart, did generate a failure signal against the bears, having closed above a previous low daily close of importance at 25.26 that when broken, pushed Silver down to the $23 level. That failure signal occurred on Thursday and was confirmed on Friday with a close at 25.32. On the weekly chart, nothing of consequence occurred as Silver did close green but was unable to close on Friday above an established level of resistance between 25.28 and 25.39. Silver did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 25.67 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 25.88 and again at 26.27. If those levels are broken, a short-term bull signal will be given. For now though, the bulls have the edge but slightly. Intraweek support is found at 24.77/24.84 and then stronger at 24.09 and pivotal at 23.74. Probabilities favor the bulls. A break below 24.77 would take the edge away.

OIL failed to follow through to the upside after having closed near the high of the week the previous week and generated a red close, which in turn makes the previous week's high at 62.27 into a pivotal resistance area. Oil closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 57.63 will be seen. Pivotal support is found at 57.25 that if broken, would break a bearish inverted flag formation that offers a downside target of 51.50. To the upside some resistance is found at 61.37 and then short-term pivotal at 62.27. Probabilities favor the bears.

DOLLAR failed to follow through to the upside after the previous week's close in the upper half of the week's trading range and ended up with a red week and a failure signal given on the daily closing chart, having closed below previous breakout highs at 92.31 on Wednesday and again on Friday. On the weekly chart, the Dollar closed below a minor weekly close support at 92.23. The Dollar closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 92.00 is expected to be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, there is minor to perhaps decent support at 91.75 that if broken, would likely generate a retest of the short-term pivotal support at 91.30. Any weekly close below 91.04 would generate a failure signal of consequence. Short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 92.50 that if broken, would negate the short-term bear signals given this week. Probabilities favor the bears but only for a drop down to 91.75 with some turn around seen thereafter.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

The only mention I have this week was the one from last week that did not get to the desired entry point. There is a chance it will do so this week. Otherwise and with the earnings quarter starting, the traders this week will be looking toward the reports before making any decision, meaning it is not a week to anticipate what will happen.

MRGE Friday Closing Price - .415

MRGE is a stock a good friend of mine gave me last week. He is a fundamental trader who has a lot of connections with CEO's and the people-in-the know with many companies. Mirage Energy Corp. is a natural gas storage and pipeline company based in Texas, intends to construct a first-of-its-king massive underground natural gas storage facility with connecting bi-directional transmission pipeline to Mexico. This is something that has been planned for some time between the two countries with the only question is "when" it is going to get built. It has been stated that when it happens, the stock will be worth at least $2.50 (6 times higher than where it is trading now).

Chart-wise, MRGE was trading at .05 cents 10 months ago and then broke out to a high of .75 cents seen in November. The stock then dropped all the way down to the .19 cent level a few weeks later. Nonetheless, the stock over the past few months, and then also going back to last year, seems to be in a clearly defined and support trading range between .30 cents and .45 cents with the important fact that since the initial rally back in June of last week, the 200-day MA has been a brick wall support. During this period of time, the stock has gone down to that line on 3 occasions and the bears have not been able to break. With the fundamental picture being positive at this time, breaking that line seems an impossibility and that line is presently at .30 cents.

The chart of MRGE does suggest that this coming week a drop down near the desired entry point around .30 cents will occur, given that the stock closed green but near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .39 will be seen this week. This mention is more of a buy and hold mention than a trading mention, though trading between .30 and .45 cents can be done repeatedly and with some success.

Purchases of MRGE around the .30 cent level and using a stop loss at .21 cents and having at least a .50 cent objective will offer a 2-1 risk/reward ratio. Nonetheless, considering the fundamental outlook that when the pipeline is built, the stock would be valued at $2.50, the risk/reward ratio would then be 24-1. I do want to mention that getting down to the .30 cent level is far from a certainty or even a high probability. It is a hopeful entry point. The stock has shown support at the .40 cent level for the past 3 weeks and it might not go back down. In fact, the stock closed near the high of the week this past week and could actually begin to climb from here right away. As such, this stock can be chased a bit, especially since it is a fundamental buy and hold trade for the $2.40 cent objective. Certainly, buying it at .40 and looking at the .30 cent level not breaking and having a 2.40 objective, offers a 20-1 risk/reward ratio.

The person who told me about this company felt quite strongly about the probabilities of all of this happening. He is a person whose knowledge of the fundamentals I trust. He is not good at trading or picking chart entry points and often has found himself in a losing positions before he cashes in, but ultimately he has the fundamental and people-in-the-now knowledge that has turned into profits.

This mention is speculative (more so than I normally go for) as it is based on fundamental information rather than charts, though in this case the entry point is based on charts and defendable.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AAPL made a new 7-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 133.04 will be seen this week. Two minor resistance level were broken and a down gap was closed, meaning that the bearishness that permeated the stock for the past 11-week has gone away. Nonetheless, the stock is near a decent intraweek resistance at 137.98 where chart selling will appear and the break (or non-break) of that level is likely to determine what the stock is to do thereafter, at least until the earnings report that comes out on April 28. A break above 137.98 (which by the way was the mention's objective) will likely take the stock up to its all-time high weekly close at 139.07 and given the strength of the index market, likely generate a new all-time high. On a daily closing basis, there is decent resistance at 134.18. That level is highly likely to be seen this week. If broken, it will give the bulls' new and added ammunition. To the downside, there is now short-term pivotal support at 126.38 that if broken, would be a bucket of cold water on the bulls. As such, a stop loss can now be raised to 126.28. Probabilities favor the bulls.

AU generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 7 week high but then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 21.60 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, this is not necessarily a negative given that the bulls were unable to break above pivotal intraweek resistance at 23.85 and another retest of the recent low at 19.64 is now required in order for the bulls to have renewed confidence in buying. Based on the fact that Gold did generate a mini breakout this past week, there is intraweek support at 21.15 that is likely to hold up. As such, that will be the downside objective for this week. Intraweek resistance will now be found at 23.10, which is the upside objective for this coming week (21.15-23.10 likely week's trading range). Pivotal resistance is found at 23.45 that if broken would likely push the stock up to the 200-day MA, currently at 25.48. The 25.48 level is the objective for the next 3-6 weeks. Thereafter, what the stock does will depend on what is happening to the overall market as well as on what is happening to the Dollar.

BTZI made a new 8-week weekly closing low and closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at .11 than above last week's high at .144. Nonetheless, the stock closed on the high of the day on Friday and further upside above Friday's high at .1295 is expected to be seen on Monday. If that occurs, Friday's low at .11 will become a successful retest of the 23-day intraweek low at .105 that was seen on March 9th. The Cannabis industry (not just the stock) has been under a slight negative bias for the past 4 weeks but the bears have not been able to break anything of consequence and overall the outlook for the industry is positive under the Biden administration. There is intraweek and weekly close support at 10.5 that if broken would further weaken the chart but if not broken, would suggest the stock will continue to trade sideways until some new news comes out. Pivotal resistance is found at .149 that if broken would fulfill the chart to the downside and new buying would appear. As such and considering last week's trading range, there is room to the downside and to the upside for .005 cents. Anything more than that in either direction will trigger more weakness or more strength. Probabilities do not favor either side this week but ultimately, probabilities favor the bulls.

CNX generated a second negative week after the downgrade from buy to hold occurred. The stock has now dropped 14% from high to low during the last two weeks. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 13.72 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock closed on Friday at exactly the previous multi-year high weekly close at 13.83 (closed at 13.82) and that suggests that this week is a pivotal week given that a red close next Friday will generate a failure signal and a green close will generate another successful retest of the breakout level. Chart-wise, this retest of the breakout was expected to happen at some point and that point is now. The downgrade still gave a $16 objective to the upside and though the stock has gotten close to that level (high of this rally has been 15.89), the overall fundamental outlook for the stock remains positive even if no longer bullish for higher prices on the long term. As such, I do expect some buying interest to be seen this week. There is pivotal intraweek support at 13.40 that if broken would give the bears the edge. Daily close resistance is now found between 14.92 and 15.02. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. Nonetheless, any rally now up close to the 16.00 level should be considered as an opportunity to take profits on the trade, unless new positive fundamentals are received. Company reports earnings in 2 weeks on April 29th.

CRON generated another red weekly close, meaning that the stock has now corrected 46% from its high made 9 weeks ago. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.55 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and on a positive note, the 200-week MA, currently at 8.45, will likely be reached this week and without negative fundamental news, highly unlikely to be broken. There is some weekly close support between 8.55 and 8.96 and having closed on Friday at 8.88, that support has now been reached. With the MA also involved in this area, the probabilities favor the bulls turning the stock around this week and generating some recovery from the 46% fall in price. A pivotal daily close resistance is found at 9.46. Any daily close above that level would suggest the worst is over. On an intraweek basis, that resistance level is at 9.87. To the downside, there is an open gap at 7.78 that was meaningful to the upside when it occurred and it is a magnet. Closure of the gap is not a given as the gap itself generated a doubling in price and that does not happen unless the gap is meaningful. As such, it is unlikely to be closed. By the same token, if closed, the 200-day MA is currently at 7.73 and there is not enough fundamental reasons at this time for that line to be broken. A drop down to that level would strongly suggest though, that the high at 15.83 will not be broken this year, or at least not until the fundamental picture for the industry and the company changes dramatically to the positive. Probabilities do not favor a drop down to that level and that would suggest that this coming week will be a positive reversal week and the beginning of a recovery phase, if not the restart of the uptrend seen at the beginning of the year. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG generated an inside week but the lowest weekly close in 14 weeks, meaning that the bears maintain their edge. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 4.06 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the 14-week intraweek low at 3.61 has not been broken and the low on 4 out of the last 5 weeks have been 4.07, 4.02, 3.96 and last week's 4.06, suggesting there is established buying interest at this $4 price level. Intraweek resistance is at 4.98 and support is at 3.61. Probabilities favor the stock trading in that range until new news or a catalyst occurs. Overall, the fundamental picture supports the bulls, especially after a 62% correction has occurred.

NEM generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high and then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 60.82 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock remains in a bullish flag formation that offers a 68.71 objective (if and when 63.63 is broken to the upside and as long as the bottom of the flag at 59.26 does not get broken). As such, the stock remains trading sideways and not with any meaningful-short-term outlook. The 200-day MA, currently at 62.18 remains pivotal but recently the stock has been straddling the line. Support is found at 60.77. Probabilities favor more sideways trading for now.

PGEN generated a green weekly close but it was only by $.04 cents so not all that convincing. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's close at 6.77 than above last week's high at 7.67. If that does occur but the recent low at 6.52 is not broken, it could end up being a required/needed retest of that low, which if confirmed would bring in renewed buying interest. More importantly, the 200-day MA is currently at 6.51 and if a second successful retest of that line occurs, it will give the bulls enough ammunition to attempt a 3rd (and likely successful) attempt at breaking above the 200-week MA, currently at 9.79. It is clearly evident by the charts that 6.50 on the downside and 9.80 on the upside are the parameters clearly in play at this time, Evidently, a break of either would be indicative. Trading within that range continues to be the high probability. The 7.67 level is short-term pivotal as above that level, there is no resistance above until the 9.00 level. Probabilities favor the bulls.

RIO generated a green weekly close, confirming that the correction is over. Nonetheless, the stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 78.51 than above last week's high at 80.96. There is an open gap down at 78.49 that is a magnet for closure. In addition, a drop below last week's low would likely turn out to be a required/needed retest of the correction low at 73.61. If successful, new buying interest would likely occur. There is established intraweek support at 76.18 that due to the 9% rally from the low, is not likely to be broken and perhaps not even reached. Using the intraday chart, the 200 10-minute MA is currently at 79.53. if the bulls can establish themselves above the line any day this week, this mini correction back down to test the lows will be over. Probabilities favor the bulls but for the beginning of the week, it is expected that the bears will have a small edge.

SNDL generated a new 10-week intraweek and weekly closing low but then the bulls managed to rally enough and close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 1.12 than below last week's low at .91. If a green weekly close occurs next Friday, this week's close at 1.00 will be a successful retest of the weekly close breakout level at .97 and should bring in new buying interest. A break below last week's low at .91 will be a negative that would likely thrust the stock down to the .68 level, while a break abov3e last week's high at 1.12 would likely bring about a minimum rally to the 1.30-1.35 level. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

SRUTF confirmed the breakout seen on the daily chart the previous week above the daily closing high resistance .0485, having closed above that level every day this past week. The weekly close resistance at .0523 and at .0585 remain in place, meaning that the stock continues to see appreciation in value and support but only on a limited basis. By the same token, this type of action has continued for several weeks, suggesting that ultimately the breakout will occur unless some negative news comes out (unlikely). The other stocks in the Cannabis industry have now reached levels of support that are unlikely to be broken, meaning that a breakout in this stock is likely to happen sooner than later. There is a new daily close support level at .048 that should no longer be broken. Any daily close above .0585 would be a breakout. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ZLAB generated positive reversal week, having made a new 17-week low and then going above the previous week's high and closing green and on the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 138.48 will be seen this week. The stock generated a second green weekly close in a row, suggesting the correction is over. There is an open gap down at 129.66 that is likely to be closed this week. Intraweek support is found at 127.39 that should not be broken. Resistance is found at 137.25 and short-term pivotal at 138.48 that if broken, would suggest further upside to at least 146.48. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) SNDL - Purchased at .94. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.00.

2) PGEN - Averaged long at 7.506 (3 mentions). Stop close only at 6.45. Stock closed on Friday at 7.03.

3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0508.

4) BTZI - Averaged long at .1225 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .1260.

5) AAPL - Averaged long at 119.97 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 126.29. Stock closed on Friday at 132.99.

6) ZLAB - Averaged long at 131.925 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 123.86. Stock closed on Friday at 132.63.

7) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 22.06.

8) NEM - Averaged long at 61.08 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 61.51.

9) CNX - Averaged long at 10.876 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 13.30 (weekly. Stock closed on Friday at 13.83.

10) RIO - Purchased at 76.15. Stop loss now at 73.51. Stock closed on Friday at 79.40.

11) AG - Liquidated at 16.765. Averaged at 15.605. Profit on the trade of $216 per 100 shares (2 mentions).

12) ENG - Averaged long at 4.92 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.06.

13) ZOM - Purchased at 1.34. Liquidated at 1.24. Loss on the trade of $10 per 100 shares.

14) ZLAB - Purchased at 127.02. Liquidated at 125.12. Loss on the trade of $190 per 100 shares.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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