Issue #716 ![]() Apr 18, 2021 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bulls Unable to Keep "Runaway Freight Train" Moving Forward. Signs of a Top Starting to be Seen.
DOW Friday closing price - 34043
The indexes generated an uneventful week, having traded in a small trading range all week and then closing red on Friday but by a very small percentage drop (less than .5% across the board). Nonetheless, the one negative that did occur is that all of the indexes closed on the highs of the week the previous week and it was expected that follow through to the upside would occur and with the exception of the SPX, none of the indexes went above the previous week's highs and in the case of the SPX, the high occurred on Friday and then only by 3 points (less than .01%). This does suggest that the indexes now require consistent positive fundamental news to continue higher. With NFLX reporting worse than expected earnings on Wednesday and dropping 8% in value, it does suggest the bulls are going to need much more than better-than-expected earnings reports just to inch higher.
This coming week is looking to be important and likely pivotal. On Tuesday pm, GOOGL reports earnings. On Wednesday pm, AAPL and FB report earnings and on Thursday pm, AMZN reports earnings. In addition, on Wednesday am the Consumer Confidence number comes out and on Thursday am the new GDP report comes out and that array of reports will give the traders all the information they need to decide what to do for the next few week. Based on what happened this past week and the early week weakness seen, the onus is on the shoulders of the bulls. So much positive anticipation has now been factored into the prices that it will be difficult to think that even further upside will occur without some positive "surprises" to the upside. By surprises, I mean much better than what is already anticipated and what is already anticipated is better than a year ago already.
The indexes did close on or near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs are expected to be seen this week. In the DOW that is above 34182, in the SPX that is above 4194 and in the NASDAQ that is above 14025. The all-time intraweek highs are at 34256, at 3194 and at 14050, respectively. It is anticipated that those highs will be broken this week, especially with the strong close on Friday and no earnings or economic reports of consequence due out until Tuesday PM. By the same token, that was the same situation that was in place last week and it did not occur.
The action last week did build new pivotal intraweek support areas that if broken, would give the traders clear chart action that would likely end up in profits being taken and new short positions started. Those levels are all at last week's lows. In the DOW at 33687, in the SPX at 4118, and in the NASDAQ at 13716. A break of those supports would suggest at least a 5% drop down to the next level of support. On the other side of the coin, the same cannot be said about the upside as the indexes are overbought to the point where a correction is likely to start anyhow (even with good news), within the next few weeks (as explained in the previous newsletter).
This coming week is pivotal as any of the reports scheduled could be catalytic and trigger a round of strong profit taking. The probabilities do not favor any of the reports being positively or negatively pivotal but if that is the case, it really does not matter as the momentum seems to have been stopped and it will take a lot of above-positive news to get it going again, meaning that the probabilities are now starting to favor the bears no matter what news comes out.
SILVER generated an uneventful week, having closed just $.025 cents below the previous week's close. It did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 25.67 than above last week's high at 26.72. Nonetheless, the chart at this time seems to be waiting for news or direction from other sources. The parameters are clearly defined with 28.29 as the high level that if broken would generate further buying and 23.74 to the downside that would do the opposite. Traders await news that is likely to be available by the end of the week, Probabilities slightly favor the bulls for the longer term but for this week, probabilities slightly favor the bears.
OIL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week high but then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 60.62 will be seen this week. The red close is now seen as a successful retest of the 30-month high weekly close at 66.09 made 8 weeks ago and it does suggest that the rally to the upside is likely over. One key level to watch this week is the 61.35 on a daily close. A close below that level will generate a new sell signal as well as a failure signal against the bulls. If that occurs, it will be a strong confirmation sign that the rally is over, at least on a chart basis. Nonetheless and for this week only, a rally back up to the 63.81 area is likely to be seen early in the week. Probabilities favor the bulls early in the week but then the bears late in the week.
DOLLAR generated a failure signal against the bulls, having closed on Friday below the previous high weekly close at 91.04 that when broken, caused it to move up to 93.44. The Dollar closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 90.81 is expected to be seen. There is some minor intraweek support at 90.63 that if broken, would find open air below until the 90.12 level is reached. Pivotal resistance is now found between 91.42 and 91.60 that if broken, would negate the recent weakness. Chart suggests the Dollar will be trading between 90.00 and 91.60 for the next few weeks. Probabilities favor the bears this week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
This is the 3rd week of the earnings quarter and after this week none of the information that is scheduled to come out is likely to help the bulls given that a whole lot of good news has already been factored into the market. This suggests that a correction is likely to occur. As such, mentions this week will be shorts. Nonetheless, I have maintained the purchase mention from the past 2 weeks that is a buy and hold stock that is not tied in to what the stock indexes do.
SALES
PEP Friday Closing Price - 145.83
PEP is a stock that has been in a consistent uptrend for the past 36 years but never during this period of time has it stayed at a price level for over a year. On February 2020 it got up to 147.20 and then dropped because of the pandemic. In December 2020, the stock made a new all-time high at 148.72 and then dropped down to 128.32 and just last week, the stock got back up to 147.80 and dropped back to close out the week at 145.83. This has now been 14 months that the stock has been around the $147-$148 level and that shows a measure of price exhaustion, especially since the stock made a new all-time high just 4 months ago but failed to follow through in spite of the fact that the indexes have continued higher with a 10% appreciation in price.
PEP saw a correction of 31% during the start of the pandemic and that type of a correction can be explained away but then in December the stock corrected 15% and that was more technical in nature and if the stock fails to make a new high on this run, a bigger correction is likely to occur.
PEP reported earnings 11 days ago and they were slightly better than expected and the stock rallied 4.2% off of the report but it evidently was not good enough to make new highs as the stock fell short by $.92 cents of accomplishing the feat. From that high, the stock fell back to close 1.4% lower this past week, suggesting that there is selling interest. The stock did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 147.80 will be seen this week. If that does occur but no new all-time high is made, the disappointment will be high. If that does not happen, the selling interest will be seen immediately, especially given that there is no more news scheduled to be released by the company and the indexes will also find themselves without scheduled news that could push them higher. As such, the risk/reward ratio is extremely good for this short and the probabilities are decent, given the long stretch of time that the bulls have been unable to push the stock higher in spite of the strong bull trend that has been seen in the market.
The objective to the downside of PEP has to be the 200-week MA, currently at 124.86. Evidently, if the stock fails to make a new high, the recent low at 128.32 will not only be targeted but likely broken. This means that depending on the entry point of the trade (at 146.60 or higher), the risk of only about $2 and the profit potential as much as $21 per share, meaning a 10-1 risk/reward ratio.
I do want to mention that the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 145.78, has not been broken convincingly to the downside for the past 6 days. The stock did get down (and slightly below) the line on Friday with the low at 145.02. I mention this because if the line is broken and Friday's low is broken as well, it will be a sign that no further upside will occur and consideration to chasing the stock should be given. As of now, a rally above Friday's high at 146.39 should be seen on Monday and the moment that occurs, the short trade will be within the desired entry point. The chart suggests the stock will get up to at least 146.69 so I will wait for that level to be reached to begin looking to short. The big question this week is whether last week's high at 147.80 will be broken or not. Probabilities favor it happening but I have my doubts that it will happen. With the risk/reward ratio being so good, I am not likely to wait to see if it happens.
Sales of PEP at 146.60 or higher and using a mental stop loss at 148.82 and having a 125.00 objective will offer a 9.8 risk/reward ratio. My rating on this trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
SCU Friday Closing Price - 22.52
SCU is a publicly owned hedge fund company that would likely suffer a fall in price if the stock market has a correction. The stock has doubled in price (from 10.28 to 26.64) over the past 6 months but when that high was reached 9 weeks ago, it had a key reversal (higher highs, lower lows and a red close) that effectively stopped the rally. Since then, the stock has traded totally sideways between that low and the previous week's high at 23.19. In so doing, the stock has built an inverted flag formation that gives a downside target of 16.44, which by the way is a viable downside target given that the weekly close breakout level from which the stock rallied to the 26.64 level was 16.15.
One additional reason for short the stock is that SCU shows that the 200-week MA is currently at 22.39. The stock shows one break to the upside of the line in February that was not confirmed as the stock closed below the line the following week, a test of the line 3 weeks ago with at close at 22.49, and a close on Friday at 22.52. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 22.53 will be seen. Nonetheless, the previous week, the high was 23.19, meaning that even if the stock goes above last week's high but doesn't break above the 23.19 level, the bears will climb aboard. As such, this short trade will have two desired entry points and two stop loss points. If one gets triggered and the trade stopped out, the second should be instituted if reached.
Let me explain further. The desired entry point this week in SCU will be above 22.53 using a stop loss at 23.33. Objective will be 16.15, meaning a risk/reward ratio of 8-1. If stopped out, a second desired entry point will be at 24.35 using a stop loss at 26.74 and having the same downside objective, meaning a risk/reward ratio of 3.4-1 but with a higher probability rating.
Bottom line, SCU short is a play that is based on the stock market having a correction. It is also a play based on the fact that the stock has been trading for 19 months and during that entire time, the 200-week MA has only been broken twice and on the first occasion, the stock stayed above the line for 2 weeks before giving it up and the second time, it stayed above the line for 1 week before giving it up. In addition, the $16 level has been strongly pivotal since the stock started trading, having been a strong support level for 22 weeks the first time it got down to that price and then a strong resistance level for 47 weeks before being broken to the upside. As such, the MA is a viable resistance level and the downside objective is a viable downside objective.
My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the strongest). Nonetheless, the rating and the trade itself is based mostly on what the indexes are likely to do. As such, read above on my outlook for the indexes as to what to expect this stock to do.
PURCHASES
MRGE Friday Closing Price - .38
MRGE is a stock a good friend of mine gave me today. He is a fundamental trader who has a lot of connections with CEO's and the people-in-the know with many companies. Mirage Energy Corp. is a natural gas storage and pipeline company based in Texas, intends to construct a first-of-its-king massive underground natural gas storage facility with connecting bi-directional transmission pipeline to Mexico. This is something that has been planned for some time between the two countries with the only question is "when" it is going to get built. It has been stated that when it happens, the stock will be worth at least $2.50 (6 times higher than where it is trading now).
Chart-wise, MRGE was trading at .05 cents 10 months ago and then broke out to a high of .75 cents seen in November. The stock then dropped all the way down to the .19 cent level a few weeks later. Nonetheless, the stock over the past few months, and then also going back to last year, seems to be in a clearly defined and support trading range between .30 cents and .45 cents with the important fact that since the initial rally back in June of last week, the 200-day MA has been a brick wall support. During this period of time, the stock has gone down to that line on 3 occasions and the bears have not been able to break. With the fundamental picture being positive at this time, breaking that line seems an impossibility and that line is presently at .30 cents.
The action seen in MRGE the past week has opened the door for the stock to drop or get near the desired entry point around .30 cents. This is a buy and hold mention and not a trading mention so consideration can be given to purchasing the stock at a higher price. Nonetheless, with history of the stock trading consistently between .30 and .45 cents, waiting for the desired entry point makes sense.
Purchases of MRGE around the .30 cent level and using a stop loss at .21 cents and having at least a .50 cent objective will offer a 2-1 risk/reward ratio. Nonetheless, considering the fundamental outlook that when the pipeline is built, the stock would be valued at $2.50, the risk/reward ratio would then be 24-1. I do want to mention that getting down to the .30 cent level is far from a certainty or even a high probability. It is a hopeful entry point. The stock has shown support at the .40 cent level for the past 3 weeks and it might not go back down. In fact, the stock closed near the high of the week this past week and could actually begin to climb from here right away. As such, this stock can be chased a bit, especially since it is a fundamental buy and hold trade for the $2.40 cent objective. Certainly, buying it at .40 and looking at the .30 cent level not breaking and having a 2.40 objective, offers a 20-1 risk/reward ratio.
The person who told me about this company felt quite strongly about the probabilities of all of this happening. He is a person whose knowledge of the fundamentals I trust. He is not good at trading or picking chart entry points and often has found himself in a losing positions before he cashes in, but ultimately he has the fundamental and people-in-the-now knowledge that has turned into profits.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AAPL generated another green weekly close but the momentum has come to virtual standstill as the closes the last 3 weeks have been at 133.00, at 134.16 and Friday at 134.32. Nonetheless, that is likely to change this week as the company reports earnings on Wednesday after the close and that report will either give the bulls ammunition to go higher or cause a correction to occur. It does need to be mentioned that the stock is trading at a high price but still below the all-time high and with expectations for a better than expected earnings report, the probabilities actually favor the stock heading lower after the report unless the already high numbers expected are even higher. As such and based on the stock having achieved the desired objective of the mention, consideration should strongly be given to taking profits prior to the report. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 135.53 is expected to be seen this week, There is decent intraweek resistance at 137.98 that could be reached early in the week as the indexes are expected to open higher on Monday. I do plan to take profits this week above 135.53 unless the stock breaks above 137.98 before the report comes out. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 131.30 and I now have a stop loss at 131.20. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week, at least for the close next Friday. AU generated an inside week but a red close and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 21.47 is expected to be seen. The stock has been languishing without generating any rally even though Gold in general has been appreciating in value. In fact, the company has a P/E ratio of 10.08 compared to other companies in the industry with P/E ratios of as high as 35, meaning that either the company is a great purchase here if Gold continues higher or it is giving the industry a sign of negative things to come. The former is the higher probability. On a chart basis and using the daily closing chart, short-term pivotal support is found at 20.77 and short-term pivotal resistance is at 22.98. Until either one of the other of these levels gets broken, there is nothing to be done regarding either holding or liquidating the positions. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. BTZI generated an inside week but a green weekly close, which in effect confirms the low seen last week at .07 as a valid and strong pivotal support level. The bulls have to do a bit more (generate a daily close above .129) before they climb aboard the stock in a bigger way but with the support level below now having been confirmed, the probabilities do favor that happening. Another positive thing that happened this past week is that on a daily closing basis, the.11 level has now become a successful retest of the low daily close seen the previous week at .082, meaning that it is now a new daily close support level, which gives the bulls additional reasons to move the stock higher this week (risk is limited and clear). As such, the short-term pivotal levels for this week are clear. To the downside, the .11 level is support and to the upside the .129 level is resistance. Whichever get broken this week will get new ammunition. Probabilities favor the bulls. CNX continued to fade to the downside, having now generated 4 red weekly closes since the downgrade to hold occurred. Nonetheless, the bears have not had much power, having closed the past 3 weeks at 13.82, at 13.72, and on Friday at 13.57. One possibly positive thing that occurred this week is that the stock closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range for the first time in the last 4 red week, suggesting a slightly higher probability of stopping the downtrend this week than continuing it. In addition, on Thursday the stock generated a positive reversal day, having made a new 7-week intraweek low but then closing green and on Friday, another green daily close occurred, suggesting the stock has now found a level of support that is going to generate some new buying. In fact and on the daily closing chart, the stock now shows a double low at 13.40 and at 13.39 that if confirmed (a daily close above 14.03) would give the bulls a new level of support to rally from. It is evident on both the daily and weekly closing charts that the 13.83-14.03 levels are pivotal resistance that the bulls must break to change the recent downtrend around. A daily close above 14.03 would now open the door for a retest of the recent daily closing high at 15.74. Keeping in mind that the companies that did downgrade the stock still kept the $16 as the upside objective. Evidently, a daily close below 13.39 would now be an additional negative. The company reports earnings on Thursday AM and that is likely to be the catalyst for this week. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. CRON confirmed the break of the 200-week MA, currently at 8.52, with a 2nd red close below that level this week. Nonetheless, negation of the break is not difficult to do as the stock finds itself only $.29 cents below the line and any slight move to the upside would do it. If the bulls are to do it, it will happen this week as the stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.55 will be seen this week. It also has to be mentioned that the stock now shows a successful retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 7.83, having gotten down to 7.57 on Tuesday and then closing above the line 3 days in a row. Last week's high at 8.55 is pivotal resistance with no resistance above until 8.81 is reached. Pivotal resistance is found at 9.15 that if broken, would suggest the correction is over. The stock has now corrected 48% from the recent highs and yet there has been no new negative news on the company or the industry, suggesting that the worse is over. Evidently, a break of the recent low at 7.57 would be a strong negative. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 14-week intraweek low but then turning around to close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 3.79 will be seen this week. It is possible that the stock has reached a level where buying interest is found, given that the previous intraweek high from 2017 (and for 3 years before that) was 3.10 and last week's low was 3.19. In addition, the 200-day MA is currently at 2.84 and having gotten within $.35 cents of that line, it is also likely some buying interest was stimulated. Nonetheless, whether this is the low of the correction or not, will not be known until the stock can get above a decent intraweek resistance at 4.32. Nonetheless, it is interesting to note that on Wednesday, the stock broke above the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 3.53, and that is a line that the stock had been trading below for the previous 11 days and after the break, the stock traded above the line for the next 3 days, establishing some idea that no further downside is likely to occur without negative news. The chart is also suggesting that the 4.32 level is pivotal as the 200 60-minute MA, is currently at 4.29. Nonetheless, there is now enough chart proof that the correction is at least paused and that some further recovery is likely to be seen. NEM generated another green weekly close, suggesting that the recovery rally is still moving forward. By the same token, no further resistance levels were broken so this past week no new chart information was obtained regarding the recent uptrend. One thing that did occur this past week is that the 64.76 level, based on a daily closing basis, is short-term support that if broken would suggest a drop down to the 200-day MA, currently at 62.44, would likely occur. The stock did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 66.99 than below last week's low at 64.13. Nonetheless and with the stock approaching a decent and pivotal resistance at 68.45 and with Gold at a pivotal resistance area, all of these points are becoming short-term important. The chart still suggests the probabilities slightly favor the bulls. PGEN generated a failure signal against the bears, having closed above the breakdown weekly close support level at 7.81 that when broken, caused a drop down to 6.52 to occur. The negation of that break has now opened the door for the 3rd retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 9.63 to occur. That line has now been tested successfully twice before and usually if a line of that importance and of that length (4 years) is to be broken, it normally occurs on the 3rd attempt. There is no intraweek resistance above until the 9.10 level is reached. There is decent intraweek resistance at 9.84, meaning that if that resistance is broken, the probabilities of the MA being broken as well, will be high. Daily close support (as well as intraweek support) is found at 7.65, meaning that is now the support level that should not be broken. Probabilities favor the bulls. SNDL generated a new 12-week weekly closing low but some buying interest was found given that the bulls were able to rally the stock above the previous week's high. In addition, the new weekly closing low was by less than $.01 cents, meaning that the bears have lost some momentum. Nonetheless and in spite of that, the stock still closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .80 will be seen this week. If that occurs but the previous weeks low at .76 is not broken, and then a green close next Friday is seen, it will be a sign that the bottom to this correction has been found. It is important to note that the 200-day MA is currently at .69 cents, meaning that even if the .76 level is broken, it is unlikely that much further downside will be seen. The MA is highly unlikely to be broken given that when the stock broke the resistance at 1.24 in February, it caused the stock to triple in price and movement such as that is not going to be totally negated without some negative fundamental change occurring. None has occurred. As such, this area where the stock is trading at is more likely to generate buying interest than selling interest with the only question being when the stock will turn around and start heading back up. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. SRUTF remains mired in this trading range between .048 to .56, which is where it has now been in for the past 4 weeks as the traders await new news. It is evident that some news for the company or for the Cannabis industry is needed in order to break out of this range. A daily and weekly close above .0585 will be a breakout, while a daily or weekly close below .045 will be a breakdown. Probabilities favor more of the same this week, though some of the other Cannabis stocks did begin to show some movement that could mean the worst is over. If that is the case, the bulls are most likely to be the winners when that happens. ZLAB generated a 2nd strong wild week, having generated a 21% move up from the low of the week. The reason for the wildness this past week was the announcement and sale of an additional $750 million in shares to generate additional funds to market the medical products that recently have been accepted. The initial reaction to the sale was negative but once the sale occurred, new buying of consequence was seen, causing the stock to turn around and generate another new 9-week intraweek and weekly closing high and then closing near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 174.17 will be seen this week. The stock has now rallied 30% from the low seen 5 weeks ago and has no resistance of consequence above until the February high at 187.46 level is reached. From there to the all-time high at 193.54 is a small amount, meaning that if the 187.46 level is broken, the probabilities of a new all-time high being made are high. The news is all strongly positive for the future of the company, suggesting that the probabilities favor it continuing higher and on to new highs. As it is, the action this past week now shows a "confirmed" spike bottom island formation at 137.38 with the top of the island being at 153.50 (new and unlikely to be seen support), as well as a breakaway/runaway formation with the runaway gap being at 165.75, which by definition is now also support. Daily close support is now at 164.53 that is highly unlikely to be broken. The question for this week is likely to be "how much more upside will be seen this week itself". The likely answer is "at least up to the $180" level. At this time and with this formation in place, I have no intentions of taking profits.
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1) SNDL - Purchased at .94. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .839. 2) PGEN - Averaged long at 7.506 (3 mentions). Stop close only at 6.45. Stock closed on Friday at 8.07. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0485. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .1054 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .1225. 5) AAPL - Averaged long at 119.97 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 131.56. Stock closed on Friday at 134.32. 6) ZLAB - Purchased at 140.07. Averaged long at 134.64 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 173.07. 7) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.50. 8) NEM - Averaged long at 61.31 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 65.72. 9) CNX - Averaged long at 10.876 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 12.69 (weekly. Stock closed on Friday at 13.57. 10) RIO - Liquidated at 86.61. Purchased at 76.15. Profit on the trade3 of $1046, per 100 shares. 11) ZLAB - Purchased at 150.22. Liquidated at 149.91. Loss on the trade of $31 per 100 shares. 12) ENG - Averaged long at 4.92 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.71. 13) NEM - Liquidated at 66.96). Averaged long at 60.056. Profit on the trade of $1841 per 100 shares (3 mentions). 14) CRON - Purchased at 7.87. Liquidated at 7.71. Loss on the trade of $16 per 100 shares.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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