Issue #719
May 23, 2021
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Runaway Freight Train Stops. Question is: "Will it begin heading in the opposite direction?"

DOW Friday closing price - 34207
SPX Friday closing price - 4155
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 13411

The DOW and the SPX set the all-time weekly closing highs 3 weeks ago and this week both generated red weekly closes for the second week in a row. The NASDAQ, which generated a green weekly close (by a small amount), set its all-time high 7 weeks ago. Also based on the weekly closes, the DOW has fallen 1.7% from its all-time weekly closing high, the SPX has fallen 1.9% and the NASDAQ has fallen 4.7%. This action suggests that the "runaway freight train" has stopped and that the momentum is gone. The action also suggests that the indexes are in some form of correction and if so, the amount of correction seen in the DOW and SPX (less than 2%) does not yet follow the established guidelines of even a minimum correction, meaning that more downside is likely to be seen. It also needs to be mentioned that the fact that the NAZ "very slightly" outperformed the other indexes but not enough to make a statement, suggests that it is a market correction and not a "dichotomy" correction, also suggesting that more downside is to come for all indexes.

The driving force to the upside this past week were the charts, given that there were no economic reports of consequence released. The indexes had gapped down on Tuesday, opening the possibility of a breakaway/runaway gap formation being built, but the confirmation of the pattern did not occur when the bulls were able to hold the indexes above pivotal intraweek support levels (DOW at 33555, SPX at 4056, and NASDAQ at 12967), having gotten down to 33474, to 4061, and to 12994 respectively, which if broken would have likely generated a watershed event to the downside. What then happened, is that the habituated action of buying the dips that has been a standard for the bulls the past year, kicked in and caused the runaway gaps to be closed and the breakaway gaps to be targeted. The breakaway gap in the SPX was closed on Friday but not the ones in the DOW or in the NASDAQ, leaving the traders confused as to what to expect (or even try) this week. That is the status of the market right now….Confusion!

All indexes closed near or in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting the bulls will try once again to close the gaps this week (DOW at 34741 and NASDAQ at 13669). Nonetheless, closure of the gaps should have occurred last week but didn't, and that opens the door for the indexes not doing what they normally do, which is follow through in the direction that they closed near to. There are no economic reports that have a catalytic value attached but on Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence number comes out and that is a report that can cause some movement if way out of line. It is expected to come in lower than last month (118 versus last month at 121.70) and the expectation is likely to be met given that the buying interest momentum has waned. Nonetheless, if it comes in substantially lower than that number, it could generate new selling interest. The opposite (a higher number than expected) is not likely to do much for the market but it could be enough to close the gaps. That is the only report I see having any potential for generating movement this week. Durable Goods and the 2nd adv of GDP also come out, but they are unlikely to have much of an effect.

The correction that is likely occurring is actually considered needed and likely healthy for the market overall, meaning that any rallies at this time are not likely to generate enough buying to cause new highs to be made. As such, it can be considered that both the bulls and bears want to see more correction as a rally right now would likely open the door even wider for a bigger correction down the line. With May also being a month where correction have usually started in the past and have carried through until July, the probabilities favor the bears this week.

The pivotal levels to the downside are the ones mentioned above (DOW at 33474/33555, the SPX at 4056 and the NASDAQ at 12967). If broken, downside objectives are 32000, 4000, and 12500 respectively. To the upside, new all-time highs at 35091 and 4238 (also respectively) would negate the correction that is presently going on. If the bulls are able to rally the indexes this week, upside objectives are likely to be 34777 in the DOW, 4190 in the SPX and 13701 in the NASDAQ.

Once again though, probabilities slightly favor the bears but if there are any surprises, they are more likely to be to the downside than the upside.


GOLD extended its rally and in the process, did make some bullish statements as several intraweek resistance levels were broken. The statements are not yet of the kind where bulls can say that the "uptrend has resumed" but they were enough to state that the bears have lost any edge they had and that edge has now been gained by the bulls. Gold has now rallied 12% from the low made 8 weeks ago and in the process, has given a failure signal against the bears and has continued above a 2-point downtrend line the depicted a mid-term downtrend, meaning that at worst, Gold is now in a sideways market. Nonetheless, Gold is reaching a level where established resistance of some consequence is found. That area is between $1895 and $1945 and that area is unlikely to be broken without any new fundamental sign of inflation, which is not due out for another 3 weeks, meaning that Gold is likely to trade around this area at $1880-$1895 on a weekly closing basis for a few weeks with intraweek moves up to $1945 and down to $1850 possibly being seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week but the recent up trend is likely to slow down and perhaps even come to a stop this week.

SILVER gave no new signals this week. Silver closed in the same area that it has closed for the past 3 weeks (27.47, 27.36 and 27.48) and this area (27.36) was the 6-month high weekly close made in February and is considered resistance. The multiple closes now seen here do suggest that the level will be broken to the upside, meaning the bulls have the edge. By the same token, unless they are also able to generate a multi-year high weekly close above 28.90, no statement will be made. Nonetheless, for this week, the probabilities of appreciation in price occurring are higher than any depreciation in price. On a daily closing basis, the two levels to watch are 29.39 and 27.05. Any daily close above 29.39 will generate new buying interest and any close below 27.05 will generate new selling interest. Probabilities favor the bulls.

OIL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 10-week high and then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 61.56 will be seen this week. The action seen does suggest that to keep the uptrend moving forward up to the fundamentally stated objective of $72, positive fundamental news will need to come out as the chart is not showing that is a probability any more, at least not at this time. A sell signal was given on the daily chart when Oil closed below a previously established daily closing low at 63.82 as well as below another established daily closing low at 63.58. Oil did generate a rally and green close on Friday at 63.58, meaning that Monday's close (red or green) is likely to color what the traders do the rest of the week. A red close on Monday, especially if below Thursday's close at 62.05, will open the door wide for a drop down to the $59 level. There is pivotal weekly close support at 59.32 that if broken, would likely cause Oil to drop down to the 52.50 level. Chart does not suggest that to be a possibility that could happen this week, meaning that the probabilities now favor Oil trading between 59.50 and 64.25 for this week and perhaps for the next few weeks. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

DOLLAR generated a new 6-month weekly closing low at 90.03 and just slightly above the 4-year weekly closing low at 89.94 that was made in December. It did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 89.65 will be seen this week. There is decent intraweek support at 89.68, meaning that if the Dollar does go below last week's low, it will likely head down to the 4-year intraweek low at 89.21 and probably break it. The Dollar has now erased all of the gains it accomplished the past 6 months and the overall outlook has now become even more negative that it was 6 months ago, suggesting that further downside will be seen down to the 7-year low at 88.25. That is not likely to happen this week and perhaps not for several weeks, but that is now the most likely target-to-be-reached over the next quarter. A break of that level would be a huge negative statement. The increase in inflation and the advent of the crypto currencies are hanging over the Dollar and it is unlikely that a recovery of consequence will occur without some positive changes in the fundamental picture. For this week though, short-term pivotal resistance is found at 90.29. If broken to the upside, further appreciation up to 90.73 would likely be seen. Nonetheless, if the bulls fail to get above 90.29 early in the week, they will target last week's low at 89.65 and likely break it. Probabilities favor the bears.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation

CHART Outlooks

Once again, I have no mentions for this week. The traders remain confused and without a clear direction for the market, meaning that only stocks with individual agendas will generate movement of consequence. I did not have the time this weekend to do the research to find those opportunities given that they are the exception and not the rule. In addition, my attention is on the presently held stocks, which are at levels where additional positions can be purchased, if and when something tangible starts happening to them (such as what is happening to SRUTF). At this time, I would prefer to add positions to stocks I have been recently following than to look for new stocks to trade.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU generated a new 29-week intraweek and weekly closing high but closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting an equal chance of going below last week's low at 24.18 than above last week's high at 26.77. The stock broke above 3 different areas of intraweek resistance at 23.85, at 24.67 and the stronger one at 25.75, as well as above the 200-day MA, currently at 24.10, meaning that the correction is over and that some recovery/short-term rally is happening. Nonetheless, resuming the previous uptrend is still much in doubt. The stock gapped up on the weekly chart between 23.81 and 24.18 and this stock has a strong history of never leaving gaps unclosed, meaning that at some point, the 23.81 level will be seen again. To the upside, the stock does have open air up to the 27.63/28.00 level, and the only question for this week is "which level has the strongest immediate magnet"? The probabilities strongly favor the stock trading in this $24-$28 trading range for the next few weeks but with Gold likely to be heading higher this week, I would venture to guess that the stock will be first heading higher to the upper level of this trading range. If so, taking short-term profits above 27.63 should be considered and then buying back when the stock gets back below $24. Overall though, and over the next 3-6 months, the probabilities favor the stock getting up to the $35 level. During this same period of time, it is also likely that the worst that could be seen is a drop back down to the $22 level, which is now likely to be the new long-term support base. Probabilities favor the bulls.

BTZI made a new 5-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .0712 will be seen this week. This was the 4th red weekly close in a row and the 10th red weekly close in the last 13 weeks. The reason for the continued weakness, even though some small amount of buying was seen in the Cannabis industry this past week, is because the company invested in Bitcoin miners at the beginning of the year and Bitcoin has been experiencing its first strong correction since February 2020, having dropped 49.1% in value over the past 2 months. Bitcoin does show some support around the 29,000 level (closed at 33,000 on Friday) and should bounce back up to the 41,000 sometime over the next few week, suggesting the pressure from the Bitcoin investment will soon be relieved. The stock does show decent support at the .07 level and though it is possible that an intraweek break below that level might occur, this is a level that should hold up and from which some recovery occur. The 200-day MA is currently at .0702 and there is no reason at this time that the line will be broken decisively. For the time being, resistance will be found at .10-.105, suggesting the stock will trade between .07-.10 over the next week or two. If able to generate a weekly close above .105, more upside will open up. For now, the stock is likely to trade sideways.

CNX generated a new 6-week intraweek and weekly closing high and did close clearly above the weekly close resistance level at 13.83 that when broken to the downside, caused the stock to drop below the $13 level, suggesting that the stock is now on a recovery period if not resumption of the previous uptrend. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting an equal chance of going below last week's low at 13.57 than above last week's high at 14.67. The former has a slightly higher chance of occurring, given that the bears have had the edge for 8 weeks since the downgrade occur and as such, a retest of the previous week's low at 12.87 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, the end result of the weekly close is that the traders are now much more likely to be buyers on the dips than sellers on the rallies and that will change the mood toward some bullish action from here on in. On the weekly closing chart, there is no resistance above until 15.62 is reached and given that no sell signal (only a failure signal) was given and that now that failure signal has been negated, there is a decent possibility the uptrend will now resume. The downgrade given was mainly in price with the price target lowered to $16, meaning that a break above the high weekly close at 15.62 can easily happen. Using the 5-year weekly closing chart, there is a mountain of resistance that starts around the $16 level and up to the $18 level that is unlikely to be broken anytime soon. This does suggest that if the stock does move up to the $16 level, profits should be taken and other stocks be considered. Any drop below 12.87 would now be a big negative. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CRON generated an inside week and a green weekly close but other than suggesting that the selling interest may have dried up, there was nothing in the action that suggests the stock is ready to move higher. Nonetheless, for the past 9 trading days, the bears have been unable to generate any new downside and now some green has started to be seen, suggesting that at least, the stock is likely to start testing resistance levels above. To the upside, the 200-day MA is currently at 7.93 and there is a minor but short-term pivotal resistance at 7.99, suggesting that will be the upside objective for this week or next. The stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher likelihood of going below last week's low at 7.21 than above last week's high at 7.64 this week. If that happens but the recent intraweek low at 6.99 is not broken, a successful retest of the low will then likely occur and if so, a rally back up to the 200-week MA, currently at 8.64, would be the objective to be reached over the next 2-4 weeks. Overall, there seems to be very little interest in the stock in either direction at these prices, strongly suggesting that the stock will trade off of chart parameters for now. That likely means a trading range between 7.10 and 8.70 for the next few weeks.

ENG generated a green weekly close this past week and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.63 will be seen. The probabilities now favor the stock generating some upside given that for the second time since the rally began in December that took the stock up to the 9.40 level has an important intraweek support level been reached. The first time was when the stock dropped back to the 5.00 level, which was a support built 14 years ago and now the support at 2.03 has been reached, which was built 11 years ago and then strengthened once more 1 year after that. In other words, a support level of consequence and importance has now been confirmed that is unlikely to be broken without a negative fundamental change that has little chance of occurring until the next earnings report that comes out in 12 weeks. The traders are now likely to start keying on reaching resistance levels above and seeing if they can be broken. The first resistance level above is at 3.10 and the second one is at 3.96. As such, the traders are now likely to start exploring the upside. A break below 2.00 would now be seen as a negative.

MRGE generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 9-month intraweek low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .285 will be seen this week. The reversal was impressive given that the stock doubled in price during this rally (from .14 to .28), suggesting that not only no further downside is likely to be seen but that something might be starting to happen fundamentally to the company. Remember that this trade is not a chart trade but a fundamental trade depending on news and a doubling in price could mean something is finally afoot. The .445 level is the kind of resistance that if broken would be indicative.

NEM made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 75.31 will be seen this week. "General" rule-of-thumb is that a 15% rally above the previous all-time high is what occurs, which means that a rally up to around 79.58 (based on a weekly close) will be seen. A drop back down to the previous all-time high at 69.20 will likely be seen thereafter, meaning that consideration to taking profits above $80 should be given. Two daily closes below the previous all-time high at 70.37 would generate a failure signal. Probabilities favor the bulls.

PEP bulls continued their attempts at making a new all-time high, having generated the 3rd higher-than-the-previous week's high and the and the 3rd week out of the past 5 weeks in getting above 147.80 but not been able to get above the all-time high at 148.77. As stated when this mention was originally given, the stock has traded up to 147.20-148.77 level 3 times over the past 15 months, but the bulls have not been able to go any higher than 148.77, which was the high made in December, in spite of the index market having rallied 24% above the highs made 15 months ago. The stock did get up to 148.31 this past week and are likely to attempt to make a new all-time high this week but if they once again fail, it may be the last attempt tried. Last week's low at 144.08 is now a pivot point support level that if broken, would likely give the bears a clear edge. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

PGEN generated an uneventful inside week in which the stock traded 1/3rd of the previous week's trading range, suggesting that both the bulls and the bears have no ammunition at this time. The stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.98 will be seen this week. The stock is presently below the 200-day MA, currently at 6.90, and has closed at or below that line for the past 14 trading days, meaning that any confirmed close above the line would be a short-term bullish statement. To the downside, only a break below 5.80 would be bearish. By the same token, if the bulls want to break above the MA line this week, Wednesday's low at 6.40 should not be broken. Any intraweek break above the previous week's high at 7.44 would give the bulls a strong edge. Probabilities are 50-50 for this week.

SNDL generated a green weekly close and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .79 will be seen. The stock has now tested the 200-day MA, currently at .6933, successfully on 2 occasions and the fact the stock has traded in the range between .69 and .79 on 11 of the last 12 trading days, does suggest the selling interest has dried up and that the bulls are likely to get the edge this week. Above .79, there is no intraweek resistance until .95 is reached. It is likely that level will be reached this week. A weekly close above .97 would be a breakout. A daily close above .94 would increase the probabilities of that occurring. Any new low below .65 would now be a strong negative. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SRUTF made a new 7-month intraweek high and a new 13-month weekly closing high, having closed above the resistance at .0586, meaning that a breakout has occurred. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at .0667 is expected to be seen this week. There is some intraweek resistance at .67 but above that, there is no resistance until .072 is reached. Further resistance is found at .08 and again at .09. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis, the only resistance above is at .077. If that level is broken, there is open air above until the .16 level is reached (based on daily closes). The important thing about the action being seen is that none of this rally has been accomplished on a spike up basis (as the previous highs had been) and that gives a lot more credence to the breakout as well as to the staying power of the rally. With this breakout, the .0555 level now becomes the new support. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ZLAB generated a green weekly close, meaning that the 3-week correction is now over. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 165.43 will be seen this week. The previous week's low at 142.50 is now the new and pivotal-to-the-uptrend support. The question is now whether the stock will trade sideways with a slight upward bias or whether the uptrend is to resume. If sideways, the trading range would likely be $154-$169. If a new high above 177.89 is made, the probabilities would then favor the uptrend resuming and a new all-time high (above the present one at 193.54) made. There is intraweek resistance at 168.95 that is likely to be reached this week and that will be a short-term deciding point. If the bulls are able to get above that level, the bulls will gain an added edge. If not able, a drop back down to $154 will likely occur and the traders then wait for more news to decide what direction to follow thereafter. The probabilities slightly favor the bulls getting above 168.95 this week.


1) SNDL - Purchased at .94. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .755.

2) PGEN - Averaged long at 7.506 (3 mentions). Stop close only at 6.45. Stock closed on Friday at 6.80.

3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0667.

4) BTZI - Averaged long at .1054 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .076.

5) PEP - Shorted at 147.46. Averaged short at 146.78. Stop loss at 147.90. Stock closed on Friday at 147.10.

6) ZLAB - Averaged long at 134.64 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 164.75.

7) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 25.50.

8) NEM - Averaged long at 61.31 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 73.53.

9) CNX - Averaged long at 10.876 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 12.69 (weekly. Stock closed on Friday at 14.09.

10) CAT - Shorted at 140.53. Stop loss at 245.58. Stock closed on Friday at 237.24.

11 ENG - Averaged long at 4.92 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.47.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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