Issue #723
Jun 20, 2021 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
|
| Fed Throws Monkey Wrench into the Market. Traders Scrambling to Evaluate Consequences.
DOW Friday closing price - 33290
Let me begin this chart evaluation by stating that "never before have I experienced the kind of unexpected chart action that has been seen during this pandemic". It has been a period of time that I have often been at a disadvantage to properly (and successfully) predict what the indexes and stocks are likely to do. More often than not, the market or the stock has acted in a surprising manner and that was not as often the case for the previous 44 years I have been charting. As such, take these evaluations of mine with a "grain of salt" until such a time that the market gets back to the basics established for the past 50 years.
Dichotomy was the key word this past week. The same Dichotomy as seen all last year (2020) happened again this past week. The DOW fell 3.5% in value (2188 points) and gave a new sell signal on the weekly closing chart, the SPX fell 2% in value (81 points) and gave a failure signal on the weekly closing chart with a close below the previous all-time high weekly close at 4247, while the NASDAQ rallied .03% (53 points) above the previous weekly close at 13996, as well as closing above the previous all-time weekly closing high at 14041. The dichotomy seen this past week is a bit perplexing as the news that caused the sell off to occur (likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates in 2023) affects all the industries and not just the meat and potatoes companies. Nonetheless, the market has gotten inured over the past year to a pattern of trading that relies heavily on monies moving from one industry to another according to the news that comes out, and that is probably what happened this past week. The news was a surprise and the traders simply fell into the learned habits they have experience during the past 16 months.
Nonetheless, the reality is that the news is not supportive to the market and maintaining further rally into new highs does not make sense, suggesting that the big question now is "how much of a correction is likely to occur.
The DOW did generate a new sell signal, having closed significantly below the 11-week low weekly close at 33874. There is absolutely no intraweek support below until 32071 is reached (another 1219 points below Friday's close). Nonetheless, there is some MA support around the 33000 area, given that the 100-day MA is currently at 33061 and that is also supported on the daily closing chart as there is some support around the 33000 demilitarized zone. It must be mentioned though, that all of that support is considered minor. Nonetheless, it is possible and perhaps even likely that after reaching that area that some small pop up will happen. On the intraweek chart and below 32071, there is no support until 30543 and then a bit stronger around the 30000, which is also an area supported on the weekly closing chart In looking at the Even then, that support is minor in nature and not supported in any other way with daily or weekly closes support.
On the SPX, the index generated a key negative reversal week, having made a new all-time high and then closing below the previous week's low. No sell signal was given on either the daily or weekly chart but a failure signal was given as the index closed below the previous all-time high daily and weekly closes, both at 4232. By the same token, the intraweek low at 4167 was broken with a low and close at 4166 and there is no support below until 4123 is reached (minor). There is decent intraweek support at the double low at 4056/4061. On the weekly closing chart, support is found at 4155 and below that there is no support until the 3934 level is reached, which is a minor support.
In the NASDAQ, the only index of the three that did not generate any negative signs this past week, the first level of support to be watched this week is 13983 on the daily closing chart. A close below that level would open the door for a drop down to the next level of daily close support between 13767 and 13802. On a weekly closing basis, the pivotal support level is at 13393. A break of that level would mean that a double top has been formed and that a sell signal has been given.
In listening to analysts on Bloomberg TV, I have heard a few analysts state that if a clear and decisive corrective phase begins, it is likely to be around an 18% drop. Such a drop would mean that the DOW would have an objective of 28268, the SPX an objective of 3482 and the NASDAQ, an objective of 11520. With the dichotomy between the indexes being so prevalent during the past year, it seems extremely doubtful that each index would fall the same amount. In fact, at this particular moment, it is not even clear if all the indexes are going to correct. The DOW is definitely on a corrective basis that suggests that at least a 13% correction is likely to occur. The SPX seems to be on a 10.5% correction path. The NASDAQ shows potential for a 7.5% drop, if and when it gets into a corrective phase. Those are the mostly likely correction estimates based on the chart support levels below.
At this time though, and based on the history in the indexes this year, nothing has a high probability rating. The market has been on a never-experienced-before scenario and past history has not been very useful (and even less dependable) during this pandemic experience.
Probabilities favor the bears this week.
SILVER bulls once again failed to make a new multi-year high and instead generated a spike down red weekly close which but the bulls once again in a situation where some catalytic piece of news has to occur to give new ammunition to the bulls. By the same token, Silver did not suffer the same break of supports that Gold did, meaning the chart is still overall looking tilted toward the bulls. Nonetheless, Silver closed at a weekly closing support level between 25.87 and 25.90 (closed at 25.96) that is pivotal and that if broken, would again tilt the bias to the bears. As such, this coming week is pivotal as far as a red or green weekly close. Unfortunately for the traders, there is no intraweek pivotal support until 23.70 is reached, so it will be difficult for the traders to trade Silver this week. There is "some" minor intraweek support at 25.74 that if broken would suggest a drop down to 24.88 would occur. Nonetheless, the support is minor and not indicative unless it holds up. Resistance will now be found at 26.75. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.
OIL reached the upside chart objective of 72.83, having made a high last week at 72.99. On a weekly closing basis, the resistance was found at 71.28 but Oil closed on Friday at 71.64, suggesting that both levels of resistance might have been breached. By the same token, neither the higher intraweek price nor the higher weekly closing price above the established resistance levels was a clear indication that the resistance in this area has been broken given that breaks by the small amount are not conclusive unless follow through occurs this week. Oil did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 72.99 than below last week's low at 69.77. Whichever of those levels gets broken first this week will give the edge to one side or the other. Intraweek resistance is now found at 75.27, meaning that if the bulls are able to continue higher, they will not find resistance until that area is reached. Using the daily closing chart, the daily close resistance that was in place prior (3 years ago) was at 71.49, so if bears are able to generate 2 daily closes in a row below that level this coming week, the odds will shift in favor of the bears. This is a difficult situation for the traders to assess given the action seen last week in the Dollar and in the index market, which did shift in favor of the bulls with the Dollar and in favor of the bears with the indexes, neither of which is a positive to oil. What this means is that the traders will be giving "extra" attention to the charts this week for clues as to what to expect. I would venture to guess that the probabilities favor the bears but Friday's action and weekly close did put that in question.
DOLLAR made a new 10-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 92.40 will be seen this week. The Dollar spiked up after the Fed announcement that interest rates might begin to rise in 2023. This move up did establish that a strong double bottom at 89.94/90.02 has been built that will give the bulls an area where they can now be aggressive buyers, if and when the weekly close resistance found at 92.37 gets broken. The Dollar closed on Friday at 92.32, meaning that this coming week's red or green close will go far in establishing who has the short-term edge. A red weekly close next Friday would suggest the Dollar will get into a sideways trading range between 90.90 and 92.30 for the next month or two. A green close next Friday would likely push the Dollar up to the pivotal weekly close resistance at 93.02, which if broken, would put the Dollar into a mid-term uptrend. As such, this week will be all about the close next Friday. The two levels to watch intraweek at 91.30 and 92.50. Whichever gets broken, will give the short term edge to one of the other. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.
|
Stock Analysis/Evaluation
|
CHART Outlooks
I do not have any new mentions this week. I do not remember the last time that the market was so discombobulated as this market is now. The Fed announced that there is a possibility interest rates will begin to rise in 2023 and the market went bonkers over the news. This was not because the news was all that unexpected or even catalytic but because the traders were not "prepared" for the news and with the market in a "once in a lifetime" situation, confusion was the end result.
Evidently, the traders need to carefully reasses the fundamentals of the market as well as pinpoint which stocks (or products) can (or will be) affected. For now, everything was affected this past week and the charts were of little help as in many cases support levels were unexpectedly broken that might be easily reversed this week or confirmed as real signal. As such, trading at this time with traders in disarray is gambling and not investing. Hopefully, by the end of the week, the questions being asked will be answered or at least better evaluated so that trading charts can be done again. For now, being defensive is the thing to do.
|
Updates
|
| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
|
AAPL finds itself at a pivot point, having rallied 7.2% over the past 3 weeks but reaching a level of weekly close resistance between 131.96 and 132.69 where the bears are likely to get involved. The stock did close on Friday at 130.46 and did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 132.59 will be seen this week. In addition to the weekly close resistance found in this area, there is a 2-point downtrend line that connects at 132.80 that will also act as decent resistance. It is evident that this coming week is strongly pivotal for the stock. Sell recommendations have been given by several rating agencies and the stock is now exactly in the place where the charts suggest is "the sell area". There is no established pivotal resistance above until 137.07 but there is some minor resistance at 134.07 that if broken might give the bulls the short-term edge. By the same token, a drop below 128.77 will do the opposite in favor of the bears. Probabilities favor the bears. AU had a big negative week, having made a new 14-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closing on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 18.88 will be seen this week. There was no new news, meaning this was all chart oriented and likely because of the strong drop in Gold. As it is, this stock has been among the worst performers in the Gold mining industry (compared to others). There is quite a bit of support at 18.04 from two lows made on September and November 2019. Unfortunately, the 200-week MA, currently at 16.89, is likely to become a magnet if Gold continues to fall. The chart has now changed inasmuch as the possibility of a rally up to the $35 level has now likely disappeared. A few weeks ago, one company lowered the rating on AU to market perform and lowered the upside target from $30 to $27. In looking at the chart, the $24 area now becomes the upside target based on this break. The stock is showing a gap between 21.39 and 21.43 that is likely to be closed given that this stock rarely leaves a gap open. As such and at these levels, there is more upside potential than downside. Probabilities favor the bears this week. BTZI continued the recent bear trend down with a new 4-month intraweek and weekly closing low. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at .0575 is expected to be seen this week. The stock likely has the .0545 level as its downside objective as that was the level that when broken, caused the stock to rally up to the .37 level. Nonetheless, the stock is now close enough to that level that any green weekly close from here on in, would likely signal that the breakout level has been tested successfully. It is important to note, especially with the big investment the company made into bitcoin miners, that Bitcoin seems to have stopped its recent downtrend and is presently trading sideways. A rally above 41616 or a drop below 28991 would generate additional movement in whichever direction is broken. Bitcoin closed on Friday at 35585. Either way, the stock is now nearing a level at .0545 that should not be broken and given that there is no resistance above until the .08-.088 level is reached, the bulls are now starting to have the risk/reward ratio going to their side. Any intraweek rally above .088 would suggest a rally up to .105 would then likely ensue. The probabilities still slightly favor the bears this week but this correction is probably nearing the end. CNX gave up all of its recent gains and made a new 5-week intraweek low and a new 3-month weekly closing low, which in turn generated a new sell signal on the weekly closing chart. It closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 13.02 will be seen this week. The drop was all due to the Fed announcement as the stock is a gas producer and the energy market as a whole was affected by the announcement. Nonetheless, it does need to be mentioned that Oil recovered on Friday to make a new multi-month weekly closing high and the Gas index only dropped a small amount, suggesting that perhaps the drop in the stock was overdone. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 12.87 that if broken, would suggest a drop to the 12.00 level. In addition, the 200-week MA is currently at 11.67, and that line would become a magnet if 12.87 is broken. Resistance is once again found at the 14.03 level. The probabilities favor the bears but there are a lot of unanswered questions, whose answers could turn the stock around "on a dime". CRON made a new 4-week low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.32 will be seen this week. The bulls were unable to establish themselves above the 200-week MA, currently at 9.01, and are likely looking to find out where support is now located. The 200-day MA, currently at 8.21, is likely to give the traders some good clues as to whether the stock is truly starting to recover or simply trading sideways. The 200-day MA line is also important from the point of view that presently there is a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the move from 6.99 to 9.42 and the flag being the drop down to 8.15. The objective of the flag (if it holds up and then breaks to the upside) is presently at 10.57 (based on an 8.15 flag bottom). There is quite a bit of support around the 8.00 level so the probabilities still favor the bulls. A break below 7.96 would slightly weaken chart. ENG generated a red close week for the first time in the last 5 weeks. The stock did go below the previous week's low, opening the door for it turning out to be the needed/required retest of the 20-week low at 2.01. The stock closed in the middle of the weeks' trading range, suggesting an equal chance of going above last week's high at 2.85 as going below last week's low at 2.53. If the latter occurs, there is further support at 2.35 and if the former occurs, there is short-term pivotal resistance at 3.20. The 200-day MA is currently at 3.19 and if broken, it would be a statement. Otherwise, more sideways trading is expected to occur. MRGE mimicked the previous week and generated another uneventful inside week and a 2nd red close in a row. The stock closed in the lower half of the weeks trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .0197 is likely to be seen this week. If that does happen and the stock then goes above this week's high next week, a successful retest of the 9-month low at .142 will have occurred. Such an event will bring in some new buying interest. There is clear intraweek support at .19 that is likely to be the downside objective this week. Pivotal resistance remains at .33. If broken and confirmed with a close above that level, the 200-day MA will have been broken to the upside and that should generate new buying interest. Nonetheless, this is a stock in which the traders are awaiting positive fundamental news to get involved with and until that happens, little other than "trading the small trading range" is likely to occur. NEM had a strong down week like Gold and all gold stocks did. The stock generated a failure signal to the new all-time highs, strongly suggesting that a resumption of the uptrend is not in the cards for now. Nonetheless, this stock has outperformed Gold in the past and likely to continue doing that in the near future. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 62.54 is expected to be seen. The next pivotal support level is found at 60.84 that if broken would likely mean that a drop all the way down to 56.50-57.50 would occur. Intraweek resistance is now found at 65.78, at 69.30 and at 72.22. The monthly chart now suggests that the stock is likely to be in a $57 to $70 trading range for the next 3-6 months. The 200-day MA is currently at 63.05 and that is what the traders will be keying on this week. If the bulls are able to establish themselves above that line (two closes in a row above the line), the stock will likely first rally up to one of the levels mentioned above. If that does not happen, the probabilities are high that the $60 level will be seen. Probabilities favor the bears but the situation is volatile. PEP generated a key negative reversal week, having made a new all-time high at 149.27 (above the previous one at 148.85) but then closing red and below the previous week's low. In fact, below the low of the previous 3 weeks. The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 145.23 is expected to be seen this week. A strong sell signal was given on the daily closing chart and the double top on the weekly closing chart at 148.30 was strengthened. There is some minor intraweek support at 144.08 and a big strong and likely pivotal again at 143.58. In looking at the weekly chart, the pivotal support there is at 141.73, which if broken would open the door for the stock to drop all the way down to the 135.15 level. The 147.99 level is now decent resistance. Probabilities favor the bears. PGEN generated a new 7-month weekly closing low and closed within $.15 cents of a previous weekly closing high at 6.20 that when broken, generated the rally up to the 11.10. Even though a new multi-month weekly closing low was accomplished by the bears, on an intraweek basis the stock still stayed above the low at 5.80, meaning that no new signal of consequence was generated. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 6.16 is expected to be seen this week. The $6 area has been an important and pivotal point for the past 22 months, meaning that what happens here will be indicative. There is pivotal daily close support at 6.24 and it is interesting to note that the stock closed on Thursday at 6.36 and on Friday at 6.35 and with most of the market going down sharply on "both" days, the fact the bears were not able to make a negative statement for 2 days in a row, suggests there is dependable buying interest here that will need further help from outside sources to break. Any green close before closing below 6.24 would be seen as a positive. Pivotal resistance on the daily closing chart is found at 6.98. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. SNDL generated a negative week, as well as a close below the .97 level, which was considered pivotal resistance, suggesting the recent strength that has been shown of late has disappeared. The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .91 will be seen this week. Daily close support of consequence is found between .808 and .834. Nonetheless, on an intraweek basis, the 200-day MA is currently at .7045 and it is likely to be hit at some point this week or next. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at .9745, which if broken would likely take some short term ammunition away from the bears. Probabilities favor the bears this week. SRUTF made a new 4-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .0552 will be seen this week. On a positive note, the breakout level at .0585 remains unbroken on the daily and weekly closing chart, meaning that this move down is likely to simply be a needed/required retest of the breakout level. Intraweek resistance will now be found at .067, that if broken would suggest the downside is over. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. STWD generated a failure signal, having closed on Friday below the previous all-time weekly closing high at 26.01. The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 25.09 is expected to be seen. The stop loss given at 25.35 was triggered on Friday, suggesting everyone should be out of the stock at this time. Nonetheless, the stock managed to rally enough on Friday to close in the middle of the day's trading range and if it goes above Friday's high at 25.55, I will likely stay with the stock a bit longer. A rally above 26.01 would suggests this drop was a 1-week wonder. Nonetheless, the probabilities actually favor the bears due to the overall weakness seen in the market. As such, I will likely liquidate the positions on Monday. ZLAB once again generated a red weekly close (the 3rd in a row) and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 154.95 will be seen this week. Intraweek support of some consequence is found at 154.17 that should not be broken unless the uptrend is over. On a weekly closing basis, there is pivotal support at 152.35 that if broken, would generate an indicative sell signal. As of this moment, this move down has not done "any" damage to the chart, meaning that the stock remains a buy. Certainly, the news this past week affects U.S. companies a lot more than Chinese companies, meaning this drop is more of a buying opportunity than not. Some minor intraweek resistance is at 163.72 that if broken would likely mean the worst of this correction is over. Probabilities favor the bulls this week for a green close next Friday.
|
1) SNDL - Purchased at .94. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .923. 2) PGEN - Averaged long at 7.506 (3 mentions). Stop close only at 6.45. Stock closed on Friday at 6.35. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0610. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .1054 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0595. 5) PEP - Averaged short at 146.78 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 145.42. 6) ZLAB - Averaged long at 134.64 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 157.30. 7) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.89. 8) NEM - Averaged long at 61.31 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 62.62. 9) CNX - Averaged long at 10.876 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 12.69 (weekly. Stock closed on Friday at 13.15. 10) STWD - Purchased at 26.10. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 25.29. 11 ENG - Averaged long at 4.92 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.64. 12) AAPL - Shorted at 125.27. Covered short at 127.82. Loss on the trade of $255 per 100 shares. 13) AU - Purchased at 21.00. Liquidated at 20.21. Loss on the trade of $79 per 100 shares. 14) >b>ZLAB - Day traded twice. Profit on the trades of $290 per 100 shares).
Previous Newsletters
|
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
![]() |
|
|